xiaohua

Island Blitz: A Campaign Analysis of a Taiwan Takeover by the PLA | Center for International Maritime Security June 17, 2023

My son sent me the attached article and below is my responses as I read through this article about a war game between China and Taiwan.

This article is very long and my thoughts are fairly lengthy too.

https://cimsec.org/island-blitz-a-campaign-analysis-of-a-taiwan-takeover-by-the-pla/

• opting not to take preemptive action against U.S. bases and stations in the Western Pacific；AGREE。LET US MAKES ITS MOVE AND CHINA HAS LEEWAY TO REACT。
• Effective Suppression of Taiwan’s Air Defenses will be done quickly. All airports will have their fairvshares of bombs and missiles. Even the air forces bases in hualian and taidong will be taken out within the first wave of attacks.
• U.S. intervention is unlikely because it will take the US months to get munitions, spare parts, aviation fuels, airplanes, air carries, combat ships and soldiers. It took the US 6 months to get its troops ready for the Iraq invasion. It’ll be even more difficult because there aren’t enough bases to keep 300,000 or more troops without China striking the US first. China isn’t Iraq or Iran. The US is afraid to engage Russia. What give Taiwan and American political leaders the confidence that America dare to fight a much stronger China? No American ships will be foolish enough to get within 400 miles from China because China has enough supersonic missiles to deter any American involvements.
• commence cross-strait invasion on Day 15; Disagree, it’ll be done much sooner because it won’t take too long to disable Taiwan’s air defenses and coastal defenses.
• Destruction of anti-ship cruise missiles, SEAD, and destruction of the ROCAF will be done immediately when the first phase of the war begins.
• outlying island will be occupied once the war starts. 金門 have no military personnelper se. Jinmeng might have 2000 soldiers +- a few hundred. Mazu is much smaller. people on those 2 islands view them as part of China.
• mining operations has no chance to begin because no Taiwanese ships can survive China’s attack using drones.
• Taiwan’s four submarines will be hunted down and destroyed once the war started. They don’t have any capability to lay mines.
• Taiwan’s current minelaying capacity, is unlikely to play a critical component in the attrition of amphibs. AGREE.
• mass their forces on a single beachhead directly adjacent to Taipei. DISAGREE. At least three: taoyuan, bali and danshui. Possibly one more in xinzhu.
• All Taiwan has in the surrounding areas of Taipei is about 35,000 soldiers. 1/3 want to go home. 1/3 won’t take up their guns and 1/3 might want to die for Taiwan. Without air support, they will be wiped out during the first 10 days after the first phase began.
• Moving any amount of troops from the South to support the northern defensive line will be a good target of Chinese drones.
• The decapitation strike should have already carried out in Taipei. China should already tracked the movements of the 民進黨’s political leaders for days if not weeks. It is likely that the presidential palace in Taipei is already lost. China can send thousands of well trained special forces to Taiwan via regular channels such as tours and on business trips. Weapons will be air lifted to the island and paratroopers will be sent in along with transport vehicles. The best place to land would be a place with no Taiwanese troops nearby.
• While Taiwan ostensibly has a large reserve force on paper, recent reports have revealed that the readiness, capability, and utility of this force is likely far below what would be required to repel a PLA invasion. AGREE. No one except about 10% of the Taiwanese people want a war let alone die to defend Taiwan again China. Even the regular force knows it’s a suicide mission with no chance of success.
• New recruits currently serves only 4 months and they don’t even have to stay in the training center over the weekend. No young man wants to fight except maybe the diehard indeoendent minded people. Starting 2024 recruits will have to take one year military training.
• 73 percent of Taiwanese would be willing to fight: DISAGREE. No one in Taiwan knows what a war is. No one has ever heard sirens and no one has any experience of facing a bomb dropping from the sky and is heading his or her way. None of the current officers have either. There was simply no need to defend Taiwan in any shape or form because it was unnecessary. That’s why new army recruits serve for 4 months and some of them can pay their way out of serving. People here are living a comfortable lives even though there isn’t any hope on this island.
• I also have questions as to whether all reservists which the Taiwan government is able to call up will be properly equipped. They simply don’t have the training and they are not in the rightvmindset to fight. All they can do is to carry a gun and be killed by a drone or a bullet.
• “China’s military-associated roll-on/roll-off vessels could deliver more than 2,000,000 square feet of vehicles per day — more than four heavy brigades’ worth of equipment. Over time, this roll-on/roll-off civilian shipping alone could deliver seven full Group Armies with their associated brigades — likely more than 300,000 troops and their vehicles — in about 10 days.”AGREE，If China wants to take over Taiwan it will be an all out military exercise and it will be massive, overwhelming and be finished quickly.
• “Taoyuan International Airport is seized during the initial days of the landing, the air bridge established by the PLAAF will be utilized primarily for supplies and casualty evacuation.” DISAGREE. The lightly wounded personnel will be treated at Taoyuan airport. The airport will be used primarily to send additional supplies such as drones, fighter jets, artilleries and tanks for the troops already on the island.
• i don’t see any reason why the US wants to defend Taiwan to antagoniz a much stronger China in the West End of the Pacific Ocean. America calls out China as the bad guy in the world and promote the theory that China wants to take over Taiwan militarily are nothing but to justify the spending of $1 trillion on DoD.
• If you take a look of the recent history, America has been the distablizing force in the middle East, asia and now Europe. Russia has repeatedly told the US that advancement of NATO to ukraine is Russia’s red line, yet the United States chose to cross it despite the US government’s promise in 1989 that NATO would not expand. America repeatedly lied and repeatedly broke its promises to the detriment of none other than the United States itself.
• America is fast losing its hegemony to BRICS, SCO, BRI, new BRICS currency backed by gold, ND Bank, CIPS and the tectonic shift of de dollarization effort by many countries in the world. Even France’s Macron wants to talk to 習近平 about BRICS.
• Finally 馬英九has said that 首戰即終戰 which means that once the war starts it will be the end for Taiwan. There is simply no question whether the war is bad for Taiwan. The argument is how long. The current thinking is 2 weeks. Taiwan is too small and there is simply no place to hide. Every defenses will be taken out within the first few days because the munitions are so much better and so much accurate these days. China has its own beidou GPS system. China has so many advanced weapons that it by itself act like a deterrent for the US to hesitate any involvements from the start. 馬英九has said many times that the US will not come to the rescue because Taiwan is an island. Once the war starts the island is blocked from all sides. No military aid will come unlike Ukraine where western Ukraine is open to weapon and foods from the US, EU and UK.
• Once the war starts Taiwan is doomed. The question is two or three weeks.