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The era of American Hegemony is ending February 23, 2024

Posted by hslu in BRICS, China, Cold War, Congress, 特朗普, 美國, 美國, Democracy, Economics, Election, 蘇俄, Global Affair, Globlization, Islam, Middle East, Military, One Belt One Road, Technology, Trade, U.S. dollar, U.S. Foreign Policy, 民主, 一帶一路, 中國.
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The era of American Hegemony is about to end.

This video by Cyrus Janssen is packed with up-to-date information and it clearly points to the rise of the Middle Kingdom and, along with it, the downfall of the U.S. hegemony.

I knew this would be the ultimate outcome many years ago but it happened much sooner than I have envisioned. Unfortunately for the U.S., the ones who are responsible for America’s accelerated decline are none other than the American elites themselves. In other words, America did it to itself so many times that it has reached to the point of no return.

For the America empire, it is all downhill from now.

First, I did not anticipate the Biden administration waged such a massive and unprecedented sanction against Russia after the Ukraine war. To the contrary of Western design, the sanction totally back fired. Russia becomes much stronger since the war began and Ukraine has been defeated, 500,000 young Ukrainians were killed and many more have been wounded. The U.S. is out of options and the mother of all sanctions put the U.S. dollar in serious jeopardy. In time, it is destined to lose its world reserve currency status.

Second, America’s retreat from Afghanistan in August 2021 was such a disaster, the U.S. became the laughing stock of the world. The annihilation of Ukraine by Russia on the battle field in Ukraine made America look weak in the eyes of Iran and many militant groups in the Middle East. Today, they not only openly challenge American’s navy in the Red Sea but also attack American military bases all over the Middle East. The U.S. have tried to stop them with bombs and missiles but have little success so far.

Third, the EU and the British are crushed militarily and economically because America dragged them into a prolonged war with Russia they cannot win. The U.S. is not doing any better either because there is no clear way out of the mess if Biden is in charge.

Fourth, Hamas’s attack on southern Israel took America and Israeli’s intelligent agencies and Netanyahu’s administration by surprise. The genocides which took place in northern Gaza Strip after October 7th is ongoing in the Rafah region in southern Gaza. They are supported by America’s intelligence, aided by American weapons, and condoned by Biden. It clearly showed a total disregard of Palestinian lives. In the eyes of Arab people, America’s standing on human rights was merely a lip service when innocent Palestinian lives are at stake. Once again Arabs around the world realize what a hypocrite America is and they are leaving the global North in droves.

Finally, in a battle for worldwide supremacy, America has waged a trade war, multiple economic sanctions, and an all-out tech war, primarily in advanced chips, against China for more than five years. China has struck back against the U.S. through determination, innovation, hard work, and self-reliance. In all likelihood, America is losing the war against China.

As the aftermaths of Russia’s defeat of the Ukrainian forces and as Israel’s attack on Hamas’s underground tunnels are playing out in Europe and Middle East, respectively, one thing is painfully clear for the United States of America: past efforts to leave Europe and the Middle East are not working and pivot to the East to contain China has to take a back seat for now.

The problem for the U.S. is that the time is not on its side because the longer America waits, the stronger China is.

Even now, the United States is strained to do any real damages to China whereas China is making leaps and bounds in military weaponries, economic advances, technology breakthroughs and foreign alliances. Cases in point are Belt Road Initiatives (BRI), Asian Development Bank (ADB), BRICS+, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Since 2013, RRI has helped many countries around the world building infrastructure projects. ADB has made a variety of loans in local currencies to developing countries and by-passed American dollars all together. Several important OPEC countries are in BRICS+ and 30+ countries are considering to join. The SCO is a political, economic, international security and defense organization. It covers 60% of the area of Eurasia, 40% of the world population, and, last but not the least, every OPEC Nations are on the BRI.

While China is improving relationship with other countries, America was busy engaging in wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Kurdish region, Niger, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Georgia, South Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Syria, Libya, Mali, Central Africa, ISIS, Houthi, Yemen, Tunisia, Chad, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, Kivu, Ukraine, and Gaza. The U.S. is bogged down in Europe and Middle East militarily and financially with no way out of these quagmires while de-dollarization and selling of the US bonds continue unimpeded.

The United States is still the most powerful country in the world but it no longer carries the weight like it used to because America has shown the world that is a paper tiger with no teeth. Many countries and groups are standing up against the US empire. They are united to take on the U.S. in ways which will hurt the U.S. the most: take the U.S. dollar off the altar of the world reserve currency. De-dollarization is ongoing. It is accelerating, and the U.S. cannot stop it from happening. But, one thing is certain: the U.S. supremacy is ending.

Nothing looks good in the U.S. these days. You see it all the time on TV, in prints, and on the Internet. Even the left leaning main street news media cannot hide it anymore.

Inflation is up. Interest rates are staying at a higher level and Americans’ living standards continue to suffer. Ordinary Americans get shafted since the Great Recession but the wealthy becomes richer. National debt has reached $34+ trillion and the annual federal deficit is approaching $1.5 trillion and higher year after year. America’s standing in the world has suffered greatly and the Global South has abandoned the U.S. for fear of being punished by the U.S. financial system. Auction of a recent 20-year U.S. bond have gone poorly is probably a warning sign which may signal more troubles ahead.

Crimes are rampant in many American cities. Homeless population has surged to more than 650,000 nationwide. Ten million plus illegal immigrants have entered the U.S. after Biden won the presidency in 2020. They bought with them drugs, criminals, rapes, financial and fiscal burdens, and violence across the U.S. Deaths in America due to overdose of illegal drugs, mainly Fentanyle, have nearly quadrupled since 2018, reaching 106,000 in 2023 alone. That was 290 deaths a day! Many of them were young and should be productive citizens of the nation when they died. Murders, gun violences, and deaths of young people due to illegal drug use have bought down life expectancy in the U.S. three years in a row.

The divide between two major political parties along the ideology line and on various social issues has never been wider. Systemic racial discrimination is rooted in the social fabric of the nation. The wealth gap between the top 1% and the remaining 99% is the widest it has ever been.

The past two presidential elections have been hijacked by both parties and they have been heavily influenced by foreign nations. The White House and the Congress have been controlled by special interests and big companies. International treaties crafted by previous administration have been teared down by the U.S. government repeatedly. Globalization and supply chains have been abandoned by the U.S. government which bought unprecedented upheavals in the world.

Political, personal, trade, currency, and financial sanctions have been placed on hundreds of companies, persons, and entities around the world. The U.S. has engaged in multiple wars across the global. Among them are proxy war with Russia in Ukraine which has killed at least 500,000 Ukrainians and 100,000 Russians; genocides in the Gaza strip; overthrowing the Syria government and assassination of its president Bashar al-Assad; destabilizing the Libya government and killing of its president Muammar Gaddafi; intervention in Yemen; war in Red Sea with Houthis; Somalia civil war; war in Niger; and ongoing conflict in Lebanon. As of this writing, CIA is still operating in many countries to create havoc in many developing countries in the Global South.

In short, America has been and still is the source of instability in the world.

According to a recent report by U.S. Special Counsel Robert K. Hur, the current American president is a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” Biden looks unpresidential, cannot remember where he is nor can he finish his sentences in many occasions. He has repeatedly fallen to the ground on live TV and has absolutely been an embarrassment for America. At 81, he insists on running for re-election probably because he is suspected of engaging in bribery schemes with foreign businesses. There are evidences that he might have received $30 million in exchange for compromised American foreign policies. The guy who wants to replace him as the next American president, Donald Trump, is a maniac, a criminal, a narcissistic old guy, and a con man who is facing numerous civil lawsuits and criminal prosecutions.

Infrastructure in the U.S. is crumbling down and public education system is failing American kids. Yet the U.S. government is sending billions and billions of U.S. tax dollar to foreign countries, e.g., Ukraine and Israel, to fight wars America has no way of winning.

Alas! America just does not learn from its previous mistakes and numerous defeats.

Is this the America which millions of foreigners want to come for freedom, equal opportunities, and prosperity?

What a joke.

To de-throne the U.S. dollar, countries such as China, Russia, Iran, South Africa, UAE, Brazil, Saudi Arbia, and many others, have used their local currencies, instead of the U.S. dollar, to trade. Their central banks have reduced their U.S. dollar holdings, increased gold purchases on the open market, and greatly curtail future purchases of the U.S. treasuries. They do it to protect their own interests because the U.S. weaponize U.S. dollar and financial system which make the U.S. government untrustworthy and dangerous to other countries’ national security.

This growing, concerted, and unrelenting action will in time result in lackluster U.S. treasury bond demands from foreign countries which will raise the borrowing costs for the U.S. government, public companies, and major and regional banks. A weak US dollar will likely push up the interest rate and raise inflation levels in the U.S. Deficit spending has kept the US economy growing in recent years but it cannot be sustained. Rising debt will impede America’s economic growth. In fact, the U.S. Treasury Department will issue $10 trillion US bonds in 2024 alone and will push the annual interest payments to $1 trillion or higher.

Well, enough of my pointless and repeated rants. Here are the primary reasons why I am bringing this development to your attention:

  1. Urge you check this matter and come up with a conclusion of your own; either agreeing or disagreeing with the assessment of this video;
  2. Look into the future, say 5 to 10 years from now, and assess what lies ahead for you, your family, and your children;
  3. Decide a course of action to minimize the potential impact this changing landscape might have on your finance, investment, and net worth;
  4. Ask yourself these questions. Will the value of the US dollar continue to drop? Will inflation keep picking up? Will interest rate remain high? And will the living standard of American people suffer? If your answers to these questions are positive, then the easy solution the government can choose now is to “tax the rich” and keep the government open for as long as it can.
  5. As the economic conditions in the U.S. continue to deteriorate, property values might drop. Stock market will take a hit. Gold will be in short supply. Bitcoin might suffer too if the US government decides to outlaw the virtual currency and extract its value to narrow the gaping hole in federal government’s deficits.
  6. Will the U.S. government take drastic actions, militarily, if necessary, against Russia, Iran and China when America finally loses out on the competition just like British lost to the U. S. in 1776 and later in 1812?
  7. In the meantime, the U.S. government, Congress, and the news media will look for scapegoats to blame and Russia, China, and Iran are easy targets for sure. If the situation in the U.S. becomes dire, large-scale riots might pop up across America. The riots might become wide spread on the street and the militant Americans might target Asian people to vent their anger.
  8. Should you consider moving away from the U. S. before the shit hits the fan?

The America empire is isolated because it cares for its own interest only. The era of white supremacy is on its way out. The BRICS+ alliance is overtaking G7 and the global South is awakening to the destructions America has inflicted to the rest of the world for the past seven decades. They choose to abandon the U.S. in waves. 

What does Antony Blinken hope to achieve during visit to Saudi? June 9, 2023

Posted by hslu in BRICS, China, 石油, 美國, Economics, Energy, 蘇俄, 黃金, Gold, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Oil, Renminbi, Russia, U.S. Foreign Policy, 上海, 中國, 中東.
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What does Antony Blinken hope to achieve during visit to Saudi? https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2023/6/7/what-does-antony-blinken-hope-to-achieve-during-visit-to-saudi

美國國務卿布林肯去沙烏地阿拉伯訪問三天。布林肯發表聲明說:美國與沙烏地阿拉伯的關係因為在人權方面的進步而關係密切。

這是那門子的鬼話?在過去的七十幾年之間,美國和沙烏地阿拉伯的關係是建立在發展人權之上嗎?

世界上有傻瓜才會相信這種屁話。是石油,而且只有石油。

這些搞外交的美國官員沒有一個是什麼好東西。

布林肯去沙烏地阿拉伯的目的很簡單:1) 警告沙烏地王子,MBS,穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼,不能也不准他放棄使用美金來結算石油的交易;2) 詢問MBS為什麼給我一根中指,在我拜訪你之前宣佈減低石油生產量。這太不給美國和我面子了?3)美國和沙烏地阿拉伯的關係密切,會繼續提供沙烏地阿拉伯武裝保護。沙烏地不要跟中國,蘇俄和伊朗走的這麽近,美國的耐心是有限度的;4) 別跟習近平和普丁搞小圈子,搞私人關係,拉幫結派。美國才是沙烏地阿拉伯親密的戰友,是你的舊愛;5) 不要幫助蘇俄躲避美國對它的制裁。蘇俄是世界動亂的原因。協助美國打倒蘇俄是美國盟友的責任和義務。

沙烏地阿拉伯的王子,默罕默德·本·薩勒曼也是一個狠人。他根本不買美國的賬。他在布林肯飛來沙烏地的途中送給布林肯一個歡迎禮物:OPEC+ 國家將從今年7/1開始再減產石油一百萬桶一天。以前宣佈的減產計劃競選實行。這樣子,石油減產已成定局,布林肯來也無法改變。布林肯的臉被打了還要扮個笑臉來跟薩勒曼拉關係。

從什麼時候開始,美國變得如此不要臉了嗎?哦,我知道,自從中國在外交上一次再一次的打臉美國開始,它慢慢的就習慣了。美國遲早要做老二的,不如早一點習慣一下。

不過,布林肯跟沙烏地王子還是一起照了一張相片,也發表了一個聲明:雙方同意為促進中東地區的穩定,安全和繁榮而努力。

明眼人一看就知道這只不過是一個無關痛癢,空洞甚至虛偽的門面話。Reading between the lines 的意思就是:布林肯白來了。薩勒曼不買美國的賬。

中東人民是不會相信美國的甜言蜜語的。過去的四,五十年,美國帶到中東的只有殺戮,死亡,不安定和長期的戰爭。

讓我們看一看中國在中東和美國在中東有什麼不同:

• 中國居中斡旋,促成沙烏地阿拉伯和伊朗的和平談判,說服伊斯蘭教的沙烏地為代表的遜尼派和伊朗做代表的什葉派這兩個世紀死敵恢復正常外交關係。這是一個非常關鍵,具有里程碑意義的的歷史時刻。它寓意深遠,影響非凡,改變中東兩國經年已久的敵對態度,一舉給支離破碎,戰爭頻繁的中東帶來和平的曙光;
• 接受沙烏地阿拉伯成為 BRICS New Development Bank,新開發銀行,成為該銀行的第九個會員。沙烏地阿拉伯的外幣儲備雄厚,給NDBZ帶來新的資源和資金;
• 中國與法國的 Total 石油公司在上海石油天然氣交易中心以人民幣購買6.5萬噸在 UAE 生產的液化天然氣(LNG)。這個史無前例的人民幣交易打破了石油美元50年的壟斷,走出美國盟友去美元化象徵性的第一步;
• 沙烏地阿拉伯國王批准蓋國加入2002年在上海成立的上海合作組織。沙烏地將與伊朗,科威特,阿富汗,阿聯酋等中東國家和十幾個中亞國家參與上合的推動。各國在集體安全、政治、經濟等領域之間加強合作,以尊重各國的多種文明為原則來謀求各國共同利益的發展;
• 從2000年到2021年之間,中國與中東的雙邊貿易增加了18.7倍:從$15.2Bn 到$284.3Bn。美國跟中東的雙邊貿易只增加了1.55倍:$63.4Bn 到$98.4Bn;
• 6個中東國家,包括沙烏地,伊朗,阿聯酋,埃及,提出參加BRICS的申請。BRICS將於今年八月舉行會議討論擴充;
• BRICS在中國的領導下,將在今年八月討論以會員國的黃金儲存或者以各國的天然資源做基礎和後盾來發展一個全新的BRICS貨幣。BRICS貨幣將成為各國共同的交易,貸款和儲備貨幣。它可以幫助新興國家和開發中國家擺脫美元和美國貨幣政策對它們的束縛和影響;

再看看過去這七十幾年,美國在中東都做了些什麼事:
• 1953年8月19號美國在伊朗策劃的一個CIA代號為阿賈克斯行動的政變。它推翻了伊朗民選總統的政府。美國支持穆罕默德·巴列維當權,直至1979年2月被伊斯蘭革命推翻。接下來美國大使館被占領,444天的人質事件使伊朗成為美國的死敵,忍受美國四十幾年嚴厲的制裁;
• 美國一再的打壓巴勒斯坦人民和國家,支持阿拉伯的宿敵:以色列。還把美國駐以色列的大使館從特拉維搬到耶路撒冷。這是阿拉伯國家的大忌。巴勒斯坦人民受的困難讓阿拉伯人民感同身受。可是在以色列軍力的鎮壓和占領之下,根本無能為力;
• 美國因為9/11事件而攻打阿富汗,基地組織,塔利班,ISIS,並占領阿富汗20年。結果美國羞辱的從阿富汗撤退,還把阿富汗送回給塔利班的手中;
• 美國假造證據攻打伊拉克因為胡森總統公開表示他要用歐元來計價出口的石油。結果胡森被殺,伊拉克被占領。美國撤軍後,伊拉克倒向伊朗,反而使得伊朗更加強大;
• 美國企圖顛覆敘利亞政府因為美國不喜歡現任領導人巴夏爾·阿塞德。美國策劃多年的內戰,蘇俄趁機而入,支持阿塞德對抗美國。美國最終無功而返;
• 利比亞領導人穆安瑪爾·格達菲提議用利比亞的黃金儲備為基礎來創造一個統一的非洲貨幣,並以此貨幣或黃金來計價非洲的石油,擺脫美元的束縛。美國國務卿希拉蕊發動NATO攻打利比亞,格達費政權垮台,格達菲被殺,嚴重的違反國際法。從此以後,利比亞陷入多年的內戰;
• 美國在中東花了$5-$7trillion,打了20多年的仗,死傷的阿拉伯人多達數百萬,毀滅的城市,社區和家庭不計其數。
• 依據2022年在14個中東國家舉辦的調查結果,78%的阿拉伯人民認為美國是中東地區動盪不安和威脅的源頭。只有57%的人民認為蘇俄和伊朗是地區安全的威脅;

自從美國的石油生產量大幅提升以後,美國可以不再依賴中東的石油,中東地緣政治的重要性也因此而相對下降。蘇聯解體以後,NATO東擴,蘇俄國力式微,美國覺得蘇俄從此將無法對美國造成任何威脅。所以美國決定放棄中東,鄙視蘇俄,移轉美國的注意力到亞洲,開始全力圍堵和打壓中國。

誰知道事與願違,蘇俄攻打烏克蘭,美國和EU國家武器和彈藥消耗殆盡,蘇俄在戰場上已經具備壓倒性的優勢,美國越陷越深,無法自拔。EU面臨前所未有的悽慘局面,烏克蘭反攻幾乎沒有任何希望。美國想要脫離歐洲和蘇俄已經是不可能的事了。圍堵中國只有等了。

中東對美國的威脅更大,因為中東各國已經主動的配合中國發起的去美元化,捨棄石油美元的浪潮。UAE 以人民幣計價賣給中國6.5萬噸 LNG 打響了中東去石油美元的第一槍。這可是一個具有歷史意義的大事。沙烏地阿拉伯即將變成BRICS的第六個成員,伊朗也有可能加入。這兩國豐富的石油和天然氣以及黃金量將為BRICS提供更穩固的基礎。

中東的阿拉伯人民早就不信任美國,更痛恨美國的霸道和它帶來的摧殘。美國在拜登的領導下在世界各地的軍事行動頻頻失利。北韓不顧美國的反對和制裁發展核子武器和彈道飛彈。多次實驗,試飛都很成功,美國根本無法阻擋。美國的外交政策在中國的崛起之下屢次三番的被中國當面指責,國務卿一再吃癟,被中國抹殺,一籌莫展。這些發展全都被美國欺壓的老百姓和國家元首看的一清二楚。中國經濟的崛起和足以在太平洋西岸抵抗美國軍事力量的發展也是有目共睹的事實。

美國目睹中國在中東的影響力不但根深蒂固還直接影響到美國的國力和美金的霸權地位。在這關鍵時候,美國只能派出疲於奔命,一事無成的布林肯來沙烏地耍嘴皮子,賣面子,給禮物。可是從默罕默德·本·薩爾曼和布林肯公佈的聲明可以知道,布林肯又是空手而歸。美國希望沙烏地阿拉伯跟以色列建立良好關係的提議也無疾而終了。

不知道布林肯下次還來不來中東看薩爾曼?

黃金 June 2, 2023

Posted by hslu in BRICS, China, 黃金, Gold, Renminbi.
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給你報告黃金最近的消息和數據:

中國是世界最大的黃金生產國,也是最大的黃金消費國。 中國2022年的黃金生產量為372公噸,比去年增加13%。 中國的黃金消費量也是驚人。2022年的消費量高達1,002公噸,比2021年少了10.6%。

根據一份 5/23/2023 的報告,今年第一季,瑞士運去中國的黃金達到290噸,比去年同期增加了 72%。從今年一月開始,美國,英國和瑞士的國際黃金市場運送了 778噸的黃金至中國。美國因為國債上限問題讓全世界對美國政府的信用打了一個問號。當世界各國,包括中國,要求收回寄放在美國的黃金時,美國無法拒絕,因為此舉將損壞美國政府的信用。

世界各國相繼從美國那裏拿回蓋國寄放的黃金是為了什麼事情鋪路嗎?

中國銀行2023年1月黃金儲存量增加了66噸。已知的中國銀行黃金儲存量是 2076 噸。可是,黃金分析師 Jan Nieuwenhuijs卻聲稱中國在2022年12月31號的黃金儲存量可能高達4,309噸,是官方數據的兩倍。此外,據說中國民間還持有23,745噸的黃金,中國全部的黃金儲存量可能達到28,054噸。

美國官方公佈的黃金儲存量是8,133.5噸。除了少數的幾個人之外,全世界沒有幾個人知道美國聯准會賬面上的黃金儲存量跟事實的黃金儲存量是否相同。這話可不是我吹牛皮d,因為連美國國會議員都不知道。原因是因為美國已經有70年沒有調查或清點過美聯儲在諾克斯堡(Fort Knox)存放的黃金了。諾克斯堡位於肯塔基州西部的山中。它是美國的一個陸軍基地。它曾經是美國陸軍裝甲中心,美國陸軍裝甲學校所在地,也是美國政府的金庫。

德國在今年2月要求美國提出證明確保德國政府存放在美國的黃金依然還在。誰知道,聯准會竟然一口拒絕。理由是:聯准會不明白德國想要這個證明的企圖。你說,這是不是有鬼?

在過去數年內,美國多位參眾議員曾經提出不同的法案,要求美國政府的會計辦公室調查和清點聯准會的黃金儲存量確實是公怖的 8,133.5噸。一個不遠的例子是西維吉尼亞州眾議員 Alex Mooney 在 2021年5月25號提出的 HR 3526 法案:Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2021,要求會計室每五年審查並公佈聯准會的黃金儲存量。這個案件還被困在委員會裏,沒有那個眾議員願意支持這個案件。原因很簡單:聯准會的老闆是美國總統,不是國會。聯准會大牌的根本不理不睬國會的請求。今年1月9號,肯塔基州的 Tom Massie 眾議員也提出了一個類似的法案,可是它可能也會被困在委員會那裏都去不了。

總而言之,聯准會的金庫裏有多少黃金,跟賬面上的數字對的攏對不攏,沒有幾個人知道。你說這麽重要的一件事卻一問三不知,你說奇怪不奇怪?

美國有26個州通過立法允許州內的人民使用黃金買賣東西。德州立了法接受以金子來保值的數位貨幣。還有七個委員提議美國回到金本位的貨幣政策。

你覺得為什麼中國在這幾年一直在國際黃金市場上購買了這麽多的黃金?中國的企圖是什麼?這跟BRICS打算接受沙烏地阿拉伯的申請,沙烏地阿拉伯想要參加BRICS銀行,和傳言BRICS將要發行一個用黃金做後盾的數位貨幣有什麼關係嗎?

美國難道不知道中國的企圖嗎?美元的霸權地位被中國威脅,美國不可能束手待斃,沒有任何作為的。

可是,美國除了台灣牌還有什麼其他的秘密武器嗎?

中國跨境交易中人民幣使用率首次超過美元 離挑戰「美元霸權」有多遠? – BBC News 中文 June 2, 2023

Posted by hslu in BRICS, China, 石油, 美國, Economics, Energy, Euro, 蘇俄, Gold, Middle East, Renminbi, Russia, U.S. dollar, 中國, 中東.
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https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/business-65423899

如果你經常注意人民幣國際化和人民幣將代替美金成為世界儲備貨幣的新聞,你就知道幾乎所有的歐美專家對這個概念都嗤之以鼻,不屑一顧。他們都說,美金的世界霸權地位根本無法動搖,因為人民幣沒有國際化的條件。人民幣替代美金的地位在未來的三四十,甚至四五十年都是不可能實現的。

他們提出來的理由很多:
1。跨國資金被中國政府管制,
2。人民幣不能在國際市場自由交易,
3。人民幣的匯率被中國政府控制,
4。沒有人相信中國政府,
5。人民幣發行量太低,
6。石油美元的基礎根深蒂固無法取代,
7。美元作為世界貿易貨幣的歷史悠久,
8。歐元都無法取代美元,人民幣更沒有資格,也沒有希望。

我說,這些專家都有一個通病。他們沒聽過中國這幾個成語:積少成多,積沙成塔,水滴石穿和鐵杵磨成繡花針。這些人當然不知道水到渠成的道理,更不知道什麼叫做萬事俱備只欠東風。

美金霸權的地位正在一點一點的,像水滴石穿一樣,被人民幣和其他貨幣掏空。中國在佈局,中國在觀望。中國在打基礎。中國在實驗。中國在研究政策的利弊。中國在等東風。

俄烏戰爭開始以後,美國的拜登稀里糊塗的就把東風送到中國的手中。接下來,去美元化的步調一下子加快了許多。去美元化正在被許多國家推上了檯面因為他們受夠了美國的氣,怕被美國制裁,不願意被美國沒收他們在國外的美元存款。中國就順水推舟,將人民幣推上檯面,成為替代美元的正主,這不就是水到渠成了嗎?而上面提到的人民幣短板突然之間就變得沒有那麽重要了。

在現在的國際貨幣市場上,人們關注的不再是人民幣有沒有國際化而是:
1。如何擺脫美國金融體系的制裁,
2。如何減少各國政府和公司持有的美金,3。如何降低本國經濟被美國政府貨幣和財物政策的影響,
4。如何降低因為美國利率政策的改變給本國貨幣帶來的浮動,和
5。如何減少持有美金債務所帶來的災害。

他們要知道中國和它BRICS盟友是否會接受沙烏地阿拉伯和伊朗的申請,將如何推出BRICS貨幣,新的貨幣是不是一個CBDC中央銀行的數位貨幣,如何決定這個新興貨幣的成分和如何用黃金和期貨來定錨它的價值。最重要的是沙烏地阿拉伯會不會接受以BRICS+的貨幣來結算沙烏地的石油交易?

十幾年前,中國政府亦步亦趨的把人民幣帶出國門。它小心翼翼的一路走過來,一直到現在才看到一點曙光。

2009年7月,當中國剛剛開始開通深圳,上海跨境交易時,人民幣在世界貿易結算的比例是0%,美金是83%。最近幾年,中國的努力已經開始產生初步的結果。2023年3月,在中國跨境的貿易收支中,用人民幣交易的佔比達到48%;首次超過美元佔比的47%。這個比例只會繼續增加,直接削弱美金的地位。積少成多,積沙成塔,一步一步的往前走。一年以後,五年以後,十年以後,再來看看全世界各種貨幣打下的天下時,你就知道到時候美金能夠守住的疆土會越來越少土了。美金到時候還能獨霸於天下嗎?

作為中央銀行的儲備貨幣,人民幣在2022年的年底的占比是2.7%,只有日幣5.5%的一半。美金的占比高高在上:58%。美國政府和商業界的名人嗤之以鼻的用 puny,pitful,meager 這類的形容詞來表示他們對人民幣的不屑和輕視。

不過,中國人又說:君子報仇十年不晚。中國的CISP交易結算系統已經開啟使用,去美元化的腳步只不過剛剛開始,人民幣的占比應該會穩定的提升的。這不正是中國政府樂觀其成的結果嗎?

謝謝拜登送來的東風,人民幣的地位提升了,BRICS的貨幣也往前跨出去了一大步。BRICS國家加沙烏地阿拉伯可以拿它們的貨幣,用它們GDP相互之間的比例來組合一個全新的貨幣。再拿這些國家的黃金儲存量,能源(石油+天然氣)儲存量,工業生產力,稀有金屬儲存量做為這個貨幣的後盾。

從此以後,這個新的BRICS+貨幣跟各成員國的實體經濟掛鉤。它將以BRICS+中央銀行的 CBDC,央行數位貨幣,形態呈現在國際金融與貿易清算系統的面前。最重要的是它將不再是一個 Fiat 貨幣。

從此,”後布列敦森林”制度將在世界上跟美金和歐元同時通行,成為世界上的第三個儲存貨幣。它跟美金和歐元各憑本事推廣自己被世界各國接受的程度。日積月累,美金和歐元的缺點在BRICS+貨幣的優勢下將凸顯而出。不過,中國一定會堅持讓這個新的貨幣先在BRICS+成員國內的幾個大城市之中推行,一步一步的拓展到BRICS+國家,最後再推上國際的舞台。

非BRICS+國家可以向BRICS銀行借以BRICS+ 貨幣計價的貸款,捨棄美金或歐元。當一個國家一旦沒有美金債務的束縛以後,它的本國經濟可以擺脫資本主義經濟週期極度擴張與惡性收縮的拖累。大量印鈔,入不敷出的日子也將被控制。從此以後,接受BRICS+貨幣的國家,本國經濟隨著美國的利率政策而大起大落的時代就可以避免了。

BRICS Bank July 17, 2014

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Global Affair, Shanghai.
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If you don’t like being treated like a 2nd class citizen by IMF or World Bank, you now have another choice: BRICS bank or New Development Bank which will be headquartered in Shanghai, China. The New Development Bank, or the BRICS Bank, has five members: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The initial funding base will be $100 billion with a reserve currency pool of additional $100 billion. It will be funded by its five members:

Brazil. $18 billion
Russia. $18 billion
India. $18 billion
China. $41 billion
South Africa $5 billion

If a country in stress wants to borrow from BRICS Bank, it has to wait until 2016.

Well, IMF and World Bank can’t do whatever they want now. They have to think twice because their monopoly is broken which is another sign suggesting the decline of the western power led by no other than, you guessed it, the United States.

My questions ares:

1. How many hundreds of tons of gold will they accumulate every year?

2. When will they start lending  out 人民幣?

With more countries joining the New Development Bank in the future, it will get more powerful.