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China or the U.S.? October 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Globlization, 中國.
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We are talking about the largest economy in the world here. And the answer, according to Noah Smith, is China.

https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/articles/2017-10-18/who-has-the-world-s-no-1-economy-not-the-u-s#ampshare=https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-18/who-has-the-world-s-no-1-economy-not-the-u-s

I started talking about the downfall of the U.S. in 2009. Finally, some one agreed with me eight years later.

What’s even more surprising to me is this: Noah Smith believes that China will eventually come out on top if these two countries engage in a conventional war. He cites China’s advantages in population and manufacture prowess.

I am glad that I get to see this happening in my life time. 中國, The Midfle Kingdom, has come back to glory from the humiliation it suffered after 甲午戰爭, the First Sino-Japanese War, and the signing of 馬關條約, Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895.

Source: The wikipedia

Source: The wikipedia

Well, 甲午戰爭 and 馬關條約 are history now and, finally, a brand new chapter in 中國近代史 has begun with China’s 十九大, the 19th Communist Party congress, and its 十三五, China’s 13th Five-Year Plan.

While Trump is writing a $25,000 check from his personal account to the father of a dead soldier and arguing with a Democratic Congresswoman about what Trump said to another dead soldier’s family, China is walking its own path and carrying out its expansion plans systematically.

Yeah, let Trump tweets and pisses off at everyone who disgrees with him, McCain, Tillerson, Muller, McConnell, Schumer, CNN, NBC, NFL players and many others, the family feud makes good drama for the world to enjoy. 

Source: Fox News

Source: The Daily Mail.

Source: The Daily Mail.

I am not complaining at all. It’s entertsining and fun to see when the s**** hits the fan.

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美國的民主政治 vs 中國的集權統治 October 18, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Democracy, Election, Global Affair, Globlization, Health Insurance, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Obama, Obamacare, Putin, Racial Bias, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 民主.
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大學好友寄來一篇有關美國民主政治和大陸集權統治的文章。看完後,想到臺灣最近坎坷的民主政治和困苦的經濟環境,忍不住感慨萬分。

中國數千年,朝代變遷,不論什麼政治體系,甚至包括一人獨裁的專制體系,那一個不是順民者昌,逆民者亡的?我時常說,能夠爲人民着想的政府,爲人民創造幸福的未來,讓人民安居樂業,社會安定的政府就是一個好的政府。

這篇文章是復旦大學中國研究研究員宋魯鄭在中國十九大開會前夕寫的。文章刊登在BBC News 中文網站上。值得一看。

Source: BBC News 中文版

http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-41645713

Source: BBC News 中文版

 

 

爲了給其他同學提供一些背景資料,我把美國近20年的政治變化簡短的摘要下來給他們參考。以下是我寫的摘要:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

謝謝高教授轉來的文章。

作者對“民主政治”的優,缺點分析的十分中肯,對一意孤行的川普和逐漸被世界排斥的美國也有明確的說明。在此,我斗膽把美國二十年來在外交和內政的變化簡短的跟大家報告一下,希望對你看這一篇文章有點幫助。

 

Clinton開始,美國就跟全世界說,伊拉克的 Saddam Hussein 擁有WMD。Bush Jr. 上臺8個月後發生911事件。美國以國家安全爲理由在2011年10月入侵阿富汗,在2013年3月入侵伊拉克。(Saddam Hussein 在 2000年10月堅持以歐元,不用美元,交換伊拉克的石油可能是美國攻打伊拉克的原因之一。)Bush Jr.爲了保護美國人民和本土,把美國的外交政策推向極右派好戰的陣營。2007年3月,美國次貸危機和 2008年9月的金融危機把全世界推向經濟蕭條的深淵。美國經濟衰退,欠債累累,失業率激增。這些事在2008年11月把Obama 推上了美國總統的寶座。

 

Obama 在他執政的八年中把美國的外交和內政推向極左派的自由主義陣營裏。對外,放棄美國霸權拒絕做全球警察,從伊拉克撤軍使得ISIS崛起,對阿富汗增兵然後撤軍,打擊以色列,討好阿拉伯回教國家,對中國採取“亞太再平衡”的圍堵政策,對蘇俄兼併克里米亞採取經濟制裁卻反而把蘇俄推向中國的懷抱。對敘利亞畫下紅線卻不採取行動,攻打ISIS不盡全力反而讓蘇俄在敘利亞建立軍事基地,簽訂伊朗核武協議,對北韓核武發展束手無策,進行TPP,TPA和TTIP談判,簽巴黎氣候協議增加美國公司負擔,影響美國勞工就業市場。最後在民主黨即將失去多數黨地位前與古巴建交。對內,他上臺後不立即更有效的用財政措施來拯救美國經濟,反而用他所有的政治資本來推動醫保全民化,簽訂 Dodd-Frank法案約束金融機構,約束石油公司,徹底打擊國內煤炭產業,濫用總統的行政權力變相的大赦非法移民,給婦女免費避孕藥,提倡社區大學兩年免費就讀,提倡同性戀婚姻合法化,支持變性人的合法地位,在軍中廢除“不問不說”政策和減弱美國人擁有槍支的權力。還有,Obama這個黑人總統和他對種族問題的迴避直接和間接的挑起了美國白人警察和黑人的武力衝突,也增加了白人對黑人的歧視和打擊黑人的決心。除此之外,金融危機帶動的量化寬鬆政策導致全世界貧富極端的不均。全球化和中國的崛起也增加美國民衆,尤其是美國南方保守派白人,對美國政府,美國前途和美國自由化現況的不滿。Obama執政八年已經無可否認的把美國變成了一個社會主義的國家了。

 

這些外在的因素和希拉蕊競選的失敗把川普推入了白宮。美國民主政治,四年河東,四年河西,動盪不安。我們現在看到的亂象都是歷史了。

 

謝謝。

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Rex Tillerson at the Breaking Point | The New Yorker October 7, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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It is a long, fair and detailed essay on Tillerson, as an oil man and as the Secretary of State working for Trump.

Source: Flipboard, The New Yorker

http://flip.it/0PFKMA

Exxon announced its intention to take over Mobil in early 1998 when I was working for Mobil E&P research in Dallas. I have worked with Esso people in Canada and respected their technology and their accomplishments in the field. I also admired Exxon’s vision and their corporate culture. 

Once an oil man, always an oil man. 

Of course, I am interested in what goes on in ExxonMobil and what Mr. Tillerson is doing as the Secretary of State under an unpredictable boss.

For another perspective on Mr. Tillerson, please see my other post on him.

https://hslu.wordpress.com/2017/10/04/mr-tillerson-you-cant-quit-now/

What’s the benefit to U.S? October 6, 2017

Posted by hslu in Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Oil, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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Other than tearing apart yet another work done by Obama, “de-certify” Iran nuclear deal, known as JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, will not bring any discernible benefit to the U.S. 

It will make Trump the odd man out on the world stage. Again. It will make American economic sanctions less effective this time around without the backing of other five countries which signed the JCPOA. It will not bring Iran any closer to comply with the regulations of the JCPOA either. And it will further isolate America from the rest of the world.

It will, however, fulfill one of Trump’s campaign promises though. 

But, what can Trump or Congress do to prevent Iran from eventually becoming a nation with nuclear weapons?

Not much.

Inspections slowed down the progress of Iran’s nuclearization. American sanctions choked off Iran’s economic development, made Iranians suffer over the years but didn’t stop Iran from gaining necessary hardware and know-how to develop nuclear weapons since Iran’s Islamic revoluion in 1979.

So, what drives Trump do it and push the hot potato to the arms of the Congress? There are several possible reasons:

  1. Trump can wash his hands clean and check it off from the list of things he had promised to do before taking the WH? 
  2. Trump believes Iran will fall in line and negotiate a new deal with the U.S. when threatened by Trump.
  3. America wants to punish Iran because Iran has been accepting Renminbi, instead of U.S. dollar, for millions of barrels of Iranian crudes it has exported to China. This is a “big no-no” because it threatens one of the pillars of American hegemony in the world.
  4. Trump intends to take on China indirectly using Iran as a promixy. By imposing new sanctions on Iran, America can impose restrictions on Chinese banks and Chinese companies if they continue to do business with Iran thus slowing down the transformation from petro-dollar to petro-renminbi.
  5. Trump is the kind of person who “唯恐天下不亂”。He wants all the attentions in the world so that he medses up things in the world as much as he can.

What a “怪胎”!

Can you think of a better term to describe Trump the person?

Mr. Tillerson, you can’t quit now. October 4, 2017

Posted by hslu in Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Japan, Military, Russia, Trump.
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Mr. Tillerson was ExxonMobil’s CEO before taking the job of Secretary of State for Trump.

For the past eight and half months, Mr. Tillerson tried very, very hard, like Trump would say, to do his job but was roundly undercut by his boss every step of the way from the very beginning. 

Most recently, Mr. Tillerson opened a direct communication channel with North Korea so that the situation on Korean Peninsula can be resolved diplomatically.

But Trump asked Tillerson to stop talking to North Korea and said that he’ll take care of the ‘little rocket man.’ 

He then fired out another tweet which went like this:

So, what did Trump mean with his second tweet? 

It was obvious to me that Trump meant taking out Kim Jong En by force.

It means war against North Korea.

With Trump’s second tweet, it seems, that there are several possible outcomes: 

1. Trump orders, with Pentagon’s support and agreements from Tillerson and security advisors, a pre-emptive attack by American forces to disable Kim Jong En’s killing machine and prevent any loss of lives of south  Korean anf Japanese people. 

2. Kim Jong En surrenders under the threat of Trump’s tweets and gives up his nuclear ambition. 

3. A nuclear war started by Kim Jong En and retaliated by Trump.

4. Trump backs down like many of his previous Twitter threats and loses his and American’s credibility again.

The first option won’t work and Trump knows it. Trump can’t neutralize North Korean’s military apparatus fast enough before millions of South Koreans, Americans and Japanese people die from Kim Jong En’s attacks. South Korean military isn’t likely to agree with this option. Japan will have doubts too because it won’t succeed.

The second option won’t happen because Kim Jong En can’t stop developing his nuclear weapons. Without the threat of nuclear weapons, Kim Jong En, like Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi before him, will die in the hands of America. Millions of North Korean people will die and America will control the entire Korean Peninsula. South Korea will be a puppet of the USA. China can’t let this happen and will step in with the troops it has at the border. Russia can stand idle either. 

If Pentagon, Tillerson and Congress agree with Trump, option 3 will be the most likely outcome. But I don’t believe Kim Jong En will start the fight first.

If Tillerson and Pentagon doesn’t agree with Trump, Trump has no option but eats his own tweets like he has already done so many times before. This is the 4th option. Congress won’t allow it to happen either. 

Do you see another option? 

There isn’t one.

So, please, Mr. Tillerson, for the sake of the humanity, hangs in there and, if necessary, beats some senses out of that dotard with a 2 by 4 if necessary. We need a few adults.in the WH because Trump is out of his mind.

Since we are talking about nuclear weapons here, did America voice any objection when India and Pakistan were developing their nuclear weapon technologies? Did America say anything about Israel’s nuclear missiles? 

North Korea will eventually have nuclear weapons and Iran will eventually have nuclear weapons. Why? For their own national interests.

And which country was the first and only one which had used a nuclear weapon on another country?

And which country has thousands of nuclear armed missiles ready to be used on its enemies for the sake of its national interests?

And which country has invaded and bombed other countries in the name of its national security?

Mr. Tillerson, I know Trump is waiting for 
you to quit so that he doesn’t have to fire you. I know Nikki Haley wants you to step down because Trump likes her and will make her your replacement. Haley is just a mouth piece for Trump. Nothing more. Nothing less. She wants your job so she talks tough to get Trump’s notice.

    So, Mr. Tillerson, you see, you can’t resign. The world peace is in your hands.

    And who is at fault? September 28, 2017

    Posted by hslu in 美國, Democracy, Election, Global Affair, Islam, Muslim, Politics, Religion, Russia, Social Issues, Taiwan, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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    Who is responsible for the world going to hell in a handbasket? 

    Who do you think is the culprit?

    There can be no doubt that Trump, his advisors and his supportors are largely responsible for the current mess in the world. So, go ahead, Trump, keeps stirring up the pot with your tweets and makes America the enemy of the world.

    But, China is doing fine, thank you very much. 

    The U.S. was solely responsible for the Great Recession because America, including the Wall Street bankers, the Fed, the regulators, the Congress, the banks and thousands of greedy investors, created the subprime mortgage loan crisis and the subsequent financial crisis.

    Now, Trump is dividing the country up into multiple classes and makes people from different classes hate each other. 

    Trump didn’t stop there. Here is a list of things Trump has done and wanted to do since 1/20/2017:

    • got out of TPP, 
    • got out of the Paris Accord,
    • weakened NATO, 
    • re-negotiated NAFTA, 
    • wanted to get rid of Iran nuclear deal, 
    • asked American allies, such as Japan, Korea, Germany, France, just to name a few, to pay for protections they have received from the U.S., 
    • threatened fire and fury on Kim Jong En and total destruction to North Korea and its people,
    • sent more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, 
    • put more sanctions on Russia and Venezuela,
    • wanted to keep muslims out of the U.S. with a travel ban,
    • wanted to build a wall to keep Mexicans and latinos from entering the America, and,
    • get rid of Dreamers. 

    It is obvious that Trump is distructive, un-trustworthy and is a person no one, e.g., Mercel of Germany, can do business with.

    The political mess in Washington and the stalemate on Britexit in England make one wonder that democracy is probably at the end of its usefulness. I certainly do not think democracy promoted by the U.S. is a viable option to govern. It created disfranchised classes and made national policies the hostages of special interest groups, lobbyists and wealthy donators. 

    So, is Trump’s government good for American people? 

    I say that it is not. 

    What do you think?

    Is it possible that America is starring at the onset of a culture revolution American style which is instigated by Trump and encouraged by Trump’s supportors?

    You tell me.

    The following is some of my thoughts on the divisiveness of Trump the person and his policies. I am trying to draw parallels between the political landscapes in the U.S. and that in Taiwan. I finished my thoughts on the U.S. and I am still working on my viewpoints on Taiwan. 

    It was written in Chinese.

    分裂

    一個分裂的社會是一個停滯不前或著逐步落後的社會。

    當政客把階級之間的矛盾作為一個競選的武器,這個矛盾的心理障礙極有可能會演變成階級鬥爭,而這個政府就會被少數的極端分子而左右。這樣的社會一定會動盪不安,人心會猜疑惶恐。這個社會的經濟就會變成投資報酬低落,人才長期外流,競爭優勢下降,經濟成長衰退,薪資不漲反退的窘境。

    兩百多年以來,美國一直是一個種族分裂的社會。南北戰爭以後,黑人不再為奴。雖然馬丁路德金在20世紀中爲黑人爭取了法律上平等的地位,可是黑人仍然被白人歧視,壓迫,而白人和黑人之間的直接衝突也一直沒有間斷過。這種種族分裂已經持續兩個世紀了。 雖然美國有法律保障黑人和少數民族(拉丁美洲人和東方人)的福利,可是這只是政客的表面文章。私底下,白人還是看不起黑人和其他人種,這也是黑人和少數民族繼續被歧視的主要原因。

    美國黑人長期以來被白人不停的壓迫,但是這個”階級鬥爭”在白人的主流意志統治之下並沒有對整個美國經濟有太多的負面影響。原因是白人當政,黑人(東方人)的影響力太低的緣故。

    不過,美國這種白人至上的情況從 2001 年以來已經受到根本的威脅,因為除了黑白衝突以外,美國還經過許多內外夾擊的改變:

    。2001 的 911 事件,

    。阿富汗和伊拉克戰爭,

    。2005 年的房地產泡沫,

    。2009 年由美國引起的世界經濟財務危機,

    。歐巴馬和茜拉蕊的反蘇俄,反中國外交政策,

    。歐巴馬任內將美國推向極端的自由派陣營,

    。川普的’美國至上’其實是’白人至上’的偽裝。

    這些事件的發生使美國成為一個嚴重分裂的社會。目前,美國有好幾個尖銳的社會衝突。這些衝突在少數政客,保守派和自由派名嘴和網路政治言論的引導之下把美國社會搞得四分五裂:

    1。財富不均的分裂;1% 和 99% 的對立,

    2。美國白人對黑人的歧視,

    3。美國白人對穆斯林教派人的歧視,

    4。美國白人對墨西哥和拉丁美洲人的歧視,

    5。美國白人對中國人和印度人的歧視,

    6。美國保守派和自由派意識形態的分裂。

    這些衝突的直接產物就是川普的當選,美國”白人至上”意志的抬頭,也是美國保守派白人的最後掙扎。美國的經濟也在這些衝突之中受到負面的影響,導致GDP成長率下降,聯邦政府入不敷出,國家債務提升,政府政策停滯不前,美金購買力下降,美國也逐漸的喪失了它在世界上的影響力和競爭力。

    Don’t listen to what Trump has to say at UN September 17, 2017

    Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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    Don’t listen to what Trump has to say at the UN. 

    Instead compare what Trump has done since January 20, 2017 to what he said on the campaign trail.

    Of course, someone is taking Trump very serious.

    We’ll see which Trump will prevail: the big mouth, juvenile Trump or the hasn’t-got-anything-done Trump.

    And above all a bellicose and unpredictable Trump September 8, 2017

    Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Islam, Japan, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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    The statement below by Jens Stoltenberg, the head of NATO, is true but Stoltenberg should have added bellicose Trump to the mix too.

    But, Jens Soltenberg fogot to mention that the U.S., Russia, Israel, India, Parkistan and China, among others, have thousands of nuclear warheads pointing to each other at all times.

    That’s a real perliferation of weapons of mass destruction indeed.

    Over 300,000 killed in Burma September 8, 2017

    Posted by hslu in 美國, Democracy, Global Affair, Obama, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/09/07/myanmar-another-obama-clinton-foreign-policy-legacy-blows-up.html

    It is also one more failure of American’s “nation building” foreign policy since the early 1950’s.

    I wonder how much money the American taxpayers have given to the military 

    Kim vs Trump September 7, 2017

    Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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