jump to navigation

War With Iran and “window of opportunity” November 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Middle East, Military, Muslim, U.S. Foreign Policy.
Tags: ,
add a comment

In 1987, a Rogue U.S. Navy Admiral Schemed for War With Iran

http://flip.it/CF.F8L

I wonder what other “window of opportunities” American military has been or is contemplating with?

A tactic nuclear war with North Korea, Russia, China or Iran?

With a story like this, it goes a long way to show the entire world that America is really dangerous in dealing with other nations in the world. 

Basically, its mentality is “It is my way or highway.”

The message to the world is simply this: “Arm yourself to defend your country or be slaughtered by the United States of America when you are least expected.”

Advertisements

Trump and Mohammed bin Salman November 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in 石油, 美國, Energy, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Muslim, Obama, Taiwan, Taxes, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
Tags: ,
add a comment

Trump has unleashed the Saudi Arabia we always wanted — and feared

http://flip.it/nNbGLY

Trump’s first foreign trip after his inauguration was to Saudi Arabia. 

Why?

What did his advisors tell him? 

What would he gain by talking to Mohammed bin Salman other than undo what Obama did to the Middle East before him?

Did he really think that he can make his mark in history with peace agreements between the enemies in the Middle East?

Did he try to lend legitimacy to a young and untested Saudi prince who requested the meeting in the first place?

Did Trump believe that Saudi Arabia might be on the cusp of forming an alliance with Russia to dominate the world oil market?

Did Trump want to tell the prince in person that America will no longer insert itself in any future Middle East conflict because Saudi is a big boy who should handle itself like a grown man instead of hiding behind the U.S.?

Did Trump just want to be bold,  unpredictable and keep people guessing?

Or mabe Trump want to check out Saudi’s golden toilet?

中國,美國與世界霸權 November 14, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Military, U.S. Foreign Policy, 中國.
Tags: ,
add a comment

達拉斯的朋友問我對中美對立的看法,這是我的回答。

當今的美國:

白人的勢力會逐漸衰退,少數民族的勢力會逐漸增加,白人保守派和激進派(川普帶起的)會感到威脅,美國的內部會繼續分裂,美國的經濟也會因為外國的頂尖份子不再留在美國而導致美國的生產力 productivity 逐漸下降。Silicon valley’s innovation is too narrowly focused to pull the US GDP growth to 3+%. (請問有多少美國的中產階級(median income $46,326 all household,$67,348 for dual income family)有錢買越來越貴的自動駕駛車?誰會投資龐大的沿路基本設施呢?)

If the U.S. GDP grew below the 3% level, GOP’S tax reform will reduce our taxes but it will add trillions of debt to the $20.5 trillion American tax payers (not all Americans because 48% Americans do not pay federal tax) already owe. 美國國債就會讓美國 (read 納稅人) 窮於應付. Baby boomers retirement (labor participation rate will reduce) will accelerate America’s financial demise。如果美國經濟復甦,它會使得 Fed 增加利息更快,而增加美國的利息負擔。

在美國的工廠裏,robots 會逐漸取代人工,美國的低階層勞工會被取代,(列如,基層的律師都會被取代)。Robots 的使用使得社會成本 (政府資助,food stamps, social welfare 等等)增加,政府赤字亦會高漲。失業入口增加,貧富不均會更加嚴重,階級矛盾就不會停止。

自古以來,帝國的衰弱都是因為它們 stretched too far. (波斯帝國,埃及帝國,羅馬帝國,拜占庭帝國,中國的秦,漢,唐帝國,奧圖曼帝國,西班牙帝國,英法帝國,和美國帝國,一個個都繼續的從歷史上消失). 美國在全世界 30 個國家中有150,000 軍人,700+ 個軍事基地,花 $100 – $200  billion/year來維持。加上10個航空母艦戰鬥群,美國的川普和共和黨還想增加國防預算, 圍堵中國和蘇俄的崛起。這些軍事支出一定會導致國庫空虛,到最後,納稅人和中國,台灣,蘇俄,阿拉伯拒絕買賬,美國就會變成一個外強中乾的紙老虎。

在中東,美國2003年入侵伊拉克,導致它和伊朗聯盟(都是shiite)。美國入侵 Syria (也是 Shiite)給蘇俄一個機會在中東設立了軍事基地。以前伊朗無法進入中東因為伊拉克的Hussein擋住它了。如今,謝謝美國的幫忙,殺死Hussein (a Sunni) 伊朗,伊拉克,敘利亞,也門,黎巴嫩,已經成為中東的霸權。美國對中東的影響力已經蕩然無存。這也是為什麼沙烏地阿拉伯不能再相信美國,而要自勵更生的道理。這些發展,對美國並不是一個壞事(省錢),但是它對美國霸權確是一個嚴重的打擊。目前,歐盟的最主要國家:德國,英國,法國已經排斥美國。美國在中亞和非洲沒有任何投資和影響力。美國在中東的影響力日漸衰退,北韓視美國爲其第一號敵人。中南半島,菲律賓也在中國的掌握之中。美國的朋友只剩下日本,韓國,半個台灣和半個印度。印度的政治結構,階級問題,政府腐敗和社會的落後,使得印度無法在短時間內有任何重大的發展,也沒有辦法趕上中國。光是環境污染,閉塞的社會和跟中國對立的政策就是印度無法解決的問題。

這些外交問題,北韓問題,中東問題,社會問題,教育問題,非法移民問題,川普本身被Special prosecutor 調查問題,2018大權移轉至民主黨問題,槍支問題,歧視黑人問題,財務問題,債務問題,deficits 問題,有些州政府沒錢問題,Puerto Rico 問題,天災補助問題,美元可能會被人民幣取代問題,石油美元變成石油人民幣問題,聯邦政府政策問題,貧富不均的分配問題,種族歧視問題,IS問題,白人積極分子問題都不是一個強壯的國家應有的現象。而美國對這些問題根本沒有什麼辦法來改變(你一件一件的往下看,看看你能不能想的出什麼好方法嗎?)。你說這難道不是美國帝國衰弱的象徵嗎?

還有,民主政治使得美國政客只能看到每四年一次的選舉。如何川普和Ryan想出來的政策,以後都可能會被改變。*而中國卻能爲未來的五年,十年,甚至二十年以後的的中國做準備。

中國的經濟以PPP計算早就已經超過美國。中國每年產生的工科畢業生比起美國的畢業生要多好幾倍。你說,中國和美國的差距,誰輸誰贏,誰會站在另外一個國家的肩膀上,不是已經早就寫在牆上了嗎?

Petro renminbi? November 14, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 石油, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Middle East, Oil, Russia, U.S. dollar, 中國.
Tags:
add a comment

Economist Jim O’Neill explains how the dollar will lose its ‘kingpin’ status – https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/14/economist-jim-oneill-explains-how-the-dollar-will-lose-its-kingpin-status.html

It will happen and it will take less than ten years as speculated by O’neill.

One country at a time. Iran. Russia. Chinese are patient and methodical. They can wait. It is a decadeclong project for China and it started the effort a few years back already.

Saudi Arabia is the big fish but America will fight hard to keep the dollar as the trading currency for crude oil.

It will be futile for the U.S. as China is already the largest oil importer in the world. The culpit is none other than the shale oil American private companies are producing now for their short term gains. Without the growing domestic shale oil production, U.S. will still be the largest oil importer in the world. As such, there is no way that petro-dollar’s kingpin position can be challenged any time soon. 

這就是因,這就是果。有因,就有果。真有意思。

BBC观点:奋发有为Vs保守孤立—中美关系会进入对抗期吗? November 6, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Obama, One Belt One Road, Politics, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, Xi Jinping, 川普, 民主, 一帶一路, 中國.
Tags: ,
add a comment

http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-41840897

不論美國的川普刷什麽把戲,中國一定能兵來將擋,水來土淹。再說,中國和美國的情形有天壤之別,如今的中國已經不可同日而語了:

  • 絕大部分的中國內部團結一致;絕大部分的美國有無數的派系鬥爭,社會混亂,國家分崩離析。
  • 中國除了台灣在一邊夜郎自大,坐井觀天之外並沒有其他特別嚴重的內憂;美國不但有內憂,還有 clear and present danger:1) 白人警察和黑人敵對之勢越演越烈,2) 黑人公開反對政府但是政府沒有任何作為,3) 國外和國內的穆斯林激進份子打擊美國,伺機而動,防不勝防,4) 一千多萬非法移民(墨西哥人等等)東躲西藏,怨聲載道5) 白人至上主義圖謀不軌和自由派鬥爭不停,6) 槍殺案層出不窮,大規模殺人事件隨時可能發生,警察窮於應付。
  • 習近平打貪防腐頗有成效,治理國家也中規中矩,一帶一路乃跨世紀的計劃,對提高中國在世界上的地位不遺餘力,習近平高瞻遠矚和跨時代的思想被寫入黨章;川普,川普兒子,他的女婿和幾位親信被聯邦特別檢察官調查,一路追殺,猶如喪家之犬,非常可憐。川普親信已經被聯邦特別檢察官起訴,一位外交政策助理已經認罪。
  • 習近平在十九大之前清除異己,鞏固自己的權力;川普仰賴沒有經驗的家屬和華爾街億萬富翁治理國事,如今一事無成。
  • 中國致力於基礎科學研究,國力日漸強大,欣欣向榮;美國欠債磊磊,赤字飇漲,苦苦掙扎。
  • 中國國富民安;美國險像叢生。
  • 中國一黨專政,高瞻遠矚,為國為民,勵精圖治;美國兩黨奪權,爲了四年連任無所不用其極,如今一事無成,實乃民主危機。
  • 中國做事效率顯著;美國民主礙手礙腳。
  • 中國有大國風範;美國卻閉關自守。
  • 中國金援外邦,協助他國基礎建設;美國對外用兵,發射飛彈轟炸他人。

      你說川普來中國朝拜,在氣勢上是不是已經輸了一節?

      Source: 多維新聞

      川普金玉其外,敗絮其中,不可一世,目中無人,夜郎自大,不切實際。他的所作所為,做小了美國總統的位子,也將成為千古之笑柄也。

      China quietly reshapes the world order October 29, 2017

      Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Globlization, One Belt One Road, Xi Jinping, 一帶一路, 中國.
      Tags: , , , ,
      add a comment

      China Is Quietly Reshaping the World

      http://flip.it/Gsue71

      Source: Flipboard, The Atlantic

      China is bringing hope and prosperity to millions of people who have been sadly left behind by America’s world order over the past seven decades.

      China’s Xi Jinping is working on One Belt One Road while America’s Trump tweets petty insults to others.

      A new world order is emerging and the Middle Kingdom has returned.

      The U.S., Iraq, the Kurds and Iran October 24, 2017

      Posted by hslu in 美國, Democracy, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Obama, U.S. Foreign Policy, 民主.
      Tags: , , , ,
      add a comment

      The United Stated has turned Iraq upside down and then shoveled the country America built into the arms of Iran.
      Nice job.

      The U.S. insisted that Iraq’s Saddam Hussein had WMD.

      The U.S. invaded Iraq and killed Saddam Hussein. Some speculated that Hussein got himself eliminated because he traded Iraqi oil for Euro instead of the USD. The U.S. couldn’t tolerate that.

      The U.S. dismantled the Iraqi army and sent all Hussein’s soldiers home.

      The U.S. built a new Iraq, selected Al-Maliki the  leader of the new government, gave him a ton of American tax money and fooled the Iraqi people to vote him in as Iraq’s first prime minister.

      The U.S. called the outcome the will of the Iraqi people, patted itself on the back and called it a shinning example of democracy for all Muslim countries to see.

      The U.S. claimed that the democratic Iraq a trusted friend in the all important Middle East region.

      The U.S. believed that the new, pro-America Iraqi government established a geopolitical equilibrium between Iran and Iraq.

      The U.S. military forces were completely kicked out of Iraq by the democratic Iraqi government America built. Obama called it the will of the American people. The withdraw of American soldiers helped the insurgence of ISIS.

      The U.S. wanted to get rid of Bashar al-Assad of Syria and formed a pro-America government but couldn’t decide whom to support.

      The U.S. created a power vacuum in Syria, Putin saw the opportunity and established a military base in Syria. Russia has entered the Middle East and popped up al-Assad’s government.

      The U.S. president’s (Obama) indecision in Syria allowed ISIS to strengthen which occupied part of Syria and a big chunk of Iraq.

      The U.S. decided to go back to Iraq to clean up the mess it left behind. American special forces supplied the Iraqi army with American’s advanced weapons and trained the Iraqi army to use these weapons.

      The U.S. supported the Kurdish Peshmerga forces because they knew how to fight the ISIS while Iraqi army ran in panic and fled in their humvees from the battle field.

      The U.S. doesn’t want Iraqi Kurds to declare independence because it will make Turkey and Iraq mad at the U.S.

      The U.S. couldn’t do anything when people in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq voted in a referendum and declared independence.

      The U.S.-equipped Iraqi army decided to get rid of the Kurds and took over the Kirkuk oil field from the Kurds in a matter of two days. The Irancbacked militias helped.

      The U.S. asked Iraq to disband the Iraqi militias because the fight against the IS in Iraq was almost over.

      The U.S. is ignored by the Iraqi PM who called the Iran-backed militias, called Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisatio,) the “hope of Iraq and the region”.

      The U.S. lost trillions of dollars and the lives of thousands of American soldiers for nothing. The Iraqi government America built became an ally of Iran. A new equilibrium has emerged in the Middle East thanks to American’s nations building efforts.

      What an irony.

      中國人有句話描述這個情形:賠了夫人又折兵。

      你又可以說:偷雞不成蝕把米。

      China or the U.S.? October 19, 2017

      Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Globlization, 中國.
      Tags: , , , , ,
      add a comment

      We are talking about the largest economy in the world here. And the answer, according to Noah Smith, is China.

      https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/articles/2017-10-18/who-has-the-world-s-no-1-economy-not-the-u-s#ampshare=https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-18/who-has-the-world-s-no-1-economy-not-the-u-s

      I started talking about the downfall of the U.S. in 2009. Finally, some one agreed with me eight years later.

      What’s even more surprising to me is this: Noah Smith believes that China will eventually come out on top if these two countries engage in a conventional war. He cites China’s advantages in population and manufacture prowess.

      I am glad that I get to see this happening in my life time. 中國, The Midfle Kingdom, has come back to glory from the humiliation it suffered after 甲午戰爭, the First Sino-Japanese War, and the signing of 馬關條約, Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895.

      Source: The wikipedia

      Source: The wikipedia

      Well, 甲午戰爭 and 馬關條約 are history now and, finally, a brand new chapter in 中國近代史 has begun with China’s 十九大, the 19th Communist Party congress, and its 十三五, China’s 13th Five-Year Plan.

      While Trump is writing a $25,000 check from his personal account to the father of a dead soldier and arguing with a Democratic Congresswoman about what Trump said to another dead soldier’s family, China is walking its own path and carrying out its expansion plans systematically.

      Yeah, let Trump tweets and pisses off at everyone who disgrees with him, McCain, Tillerson, Muller, McConnell, Schumer, CNN, NBC, NFL players and many others, the family feud makes good drama for the world to enjoy. 

      Source: Fox News

      Source: The Daily Mail.

      Source: The Daily Mail.

      I am not complaining at all. It’s entertsining and fun to see when the s**** hits the fan.

      美國的民主政治 vs 中國的集權統治 October 18, 2017

      Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Democracy, Election, Global Affair, Globlization, Health Insurance, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Obama, Obamacare, Putin, Racial Bias, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 民主.
      Tags: , , ,
      add a comment

      大學好友寄來一篇有關美國民主政治和大陸集權統治的文章。看完後,想到臺灣最近坎坷的民主政治和困苦的經濟環境,忍不住感慨萬分。

      中國數千年,朝代變遷,不論什麼政治體系,甚至包括一人獨裁的專制體系,那一個不是順民者昌,逆民者亡的?我時常說,能夠爲人民着想的政府,爲人民創造幸福的未來,讓人民安居樂業,社會安定的政府就是一個好的政府。

      這篇文章是復旦大學中國研究研究員宋魯鄭在中國十九大開會前夕寫的。文章刊登在BBC News 中文網站上。值得一看。

      Source: BBC News 中文版

      http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-41645713

      Source: BBC News 中文版

       

       

      爲了給其他同學提供一些背景資料,我把美國近20年的政治變化簡短的摘要下來給他們參考。以下是我寫的摘要:

      xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

      謝謝高教授轉來的文章。

      作者對“民主政治”的優,缺點分析的十分中肯,對一意孤行的川普和逐漸被世界排斥的美國也有明確的說明。在此,我斗膽把美國二十年來在外交和內政的變化簡短的跟大家報告一下,希望對你看這一篇文章有點幫助。

       

      Clinton開始,美國就跟全世界說,伊拉克的 Saddam Hussein 擁有WMD。Bush Jr. 上臺8個月後發生911事件。美國以國家安全爲理由在2011年10月入侵阿富汗,在2013年3月入侵伊拉克。(Saddam Hussein 在 2000年10月堅持以歐元,不用美元,交換伊拉克的石油可能是美國攻打伊拉克的原因之一。)Bush Jr.爲了保護美國人民和本土,把美國的外交政策推向極右派好戰的陣營。2007年3月,美國次貸危機和 2008年9月的金融危機把全世界推向經濟蕭條的深淵。美國經濟衰退,欠債累累,失業率激增。這些事在2008年11月把Obama 推上了美國總統的寶座。

       

      Obama 在他執政的八年中把美國的外交和內政推向極左派的自由主義陣營裏。對外,放棄美國霸權拒絕做全球警察,從伊拉克撤軍使得ISIS崛起,對阿富汗增兵然後撤軍,打擊以色列,討好阿拉伯回教國家,對中國採取“亞太再平衡”的圍堵政策,對蘇俄兼併克里米亞採取經濟制裁卻反而把蘇俄推向中國的懷抱。對敘利亞畫下紅線卻不採取行動,攻打ISIS不盡全力反而讓蘇俄在敘利亞建立軍事基地,簽訂伊朗核武協議,對北韓核武發展束手無策,進行TPP,TPA和TTIP談判,簽巴黎氣候協議增加美國公司負擔,影響美國勞工就業市場。最後在民主黨即將失去多數黨地位前與古巴建交。對內,他上臺後不立即更有效的用財政措施來拯救美國經濟,反而用他所有的政治資本來推動醫保全民化,簽訂 Dodd-Frank法案約束金融機構,約束石油公司,徹底打擊國內煤炭產業,濫用總統的行政權力變相的大赦非法移民,給婦女免費避孕藥,提倡社區大學兩年免費就讀,提倡同性戀婚姻合法化,支持變性人的合法地位,在軍中廢除“不問不說”政策和減弱美國人擁有槍支的權力。還有,Obama這個黑人總統和他對種族問題的迴避直接和間接的挑起了美國白人警察和黑人的武力衝突,也增加了白人對黑人的歧視和打擊黑人的決心。除此之外,金融危機帶動的量化寬鬆政策導致全世界貧富極端的不均。全球化和中國的崛起也增加美國民衆,尤其是美國南方保守派白人,對美國政府,美國前途和美國自由化現況的不滿。Obama執政八年已經無可否認的把美國變成了一個社會主義的國家了。

       

      這些外在的因素和希拉蕊競選的失敗把川普推入了白宮。美國民主政治,四年河東,四年河西,動盪不安。我們現在看到的亂象都是歷史了。

       

      謝謝。

      xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

       

      Rex Tillerson at the Breaking Point | The New Yorker October 7, 2017

      Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
      Tags: ,
      add a comment

      It is a long, fair and detailed essay on Tillerson, as an oil man and as the Secretary of State working for Trump.

      Source: Flipboard, The New Yorker

      http://flip.it/0PFKMA

      Exxon announced its intention to take over Mobil in early 1998 when I was working for Mobil E&P research in Dallas. I have worked with Esso people in Canada and respected their technology and their accomplishments in the field. I also admired Exxon’s vision and their corporate culture. 

      Once an oil man, always an oil man. 

      Of course, I am interested in what goes on in ExxonMobil and what Mr. Tillerson is doing as the Secretary of State under an unpredictable boss.

      For another perspective on Mr. Tillerson, please see my other post on him.

      https://hslu.wordpress.com/2017/10/04/mr-tillerson-you-cant-quit-now/

      %d bloggers like this: