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Xiong’an:雄安新區 April 20, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, 習近平, Economics, 浦東, 一帶一路.
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A brave new world: Xi’s Xiong’an

http://flip.it/wg2xL6

Source: Flipboard website

A brave new project with significant relief to a very crowded capital city of China.

Source: Baidu

I would like to visit the new city, to be built from scratch, around 2025 or so.

If you want to buy an appartment in this new city expecting a double or triple of your investment in 5 years, forget about it. There will be no private property for sale in Xiong An. You can only rent one from the city.

Xiong An appears to be another Xi Jinping’s momentous project after the OBOD initiative.

Of all the new districts developed by the Chinese government over the past 35 years, only two are extremely successful: Shenzhen New District and Pudong New District. We shall see how successful Xiong An New District will be in 20 or 30 years.

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Even I saw that coming April 16, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Military, Putin, Russia, Taiwan, Trump, 台灣, 川普, 中國.
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I wrote about the new cold war long time ago between China and the U.S.

The cold war between Russia and the U.S. has intensified after Trump was investigated by Mueller and the situation shows no sign of improving at all after America-led air strike on Syria this past weekend.

While China and the U.S. is now engaging in a give and take on the trading front, two more worrisome developments have cast a shadow on the China-U.S. relationship:

  • The prospect of elevating the status of Taiwan on the part of the U.S. to start a new run of diplomatic confrontation.

  • Trump has talked about re-joining the TPP trade pact as a strategic development to further isolate China in the Pacific and Southeast Asia region.

Both developments could push China and the U.S. into a more explosive and prolonged cold war. The situation probably won’t get any relief until Trump is either impeached or forced to resign from the office from the ongoing special counsel investigation.

打就打吧,誰怕誰呀! April 9, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Globlization, Trade, Trump, 川普, 中國.
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Trump 要跟中國和世界打貿易戰。他自以為貿易戰很容易,而且美國一定贏。可是美國十幾年前的例子和許多專家的研究和看法並不支持他的論點。

貿易戰對誰都沒有好處,因為沒有那個國家願意只捱打而不還手的。你要增加我的關稅,那我也要增加你的關稅。你增加我25%,我不會低於 25%。要打就打吧,誰怕誰啊?

美國在老 Bush 做總統時也跟世界許多國家打了一年半的鋼鐵貿易戰。貿易戰爭結束以後,美國損失了二十萬個工作,Bush 總統悄悄的撤銷關稅,美國的貿易戰無疾而終。

這一次,Trump 首先發難,先對許多國家的鋼鐵進口徵加關稅,想要保護美國的鋼鐵工業。其次,Trump 再對從中國進口價值達到 $50 billion 的貨品增加 25% 的關稅。中國以靜制動,提出對從美國進口價值 $3 billion 的貨品增加關稅。幾天以後又提出對美國進口價值 $60 billion 的貨品增加關稅。Trump 也不示弱,立即提出對中國進口價值 $100 billion 的貨品增加關稅。這下子好了,不管美國第二次的提高關稅政策會不會真正的執行,中美兩國的貿易戰實際上已經開始了。也就是說,中美兩國的一些舶來品,進口貨要漲價了。

那這一次的貿易戰會如何發展下去呢?

讓我們先簡單的來看看中國和美國的經濟和雙邊的貿易關係:

兩國的 GDP 以實際美元來計算:

美國的 GDP: ~$19,400 billion,年增長率 ~2.5%。

中國的 GDP: ~$12,000 billion,年增長率:6.9%。

GDP 以購買力平價 (purchasing power parity) 來計算:

美國的 GDP: ~$19,400 billion

中國的 GDP: ~$23,100 billion

(附註:EU GDP: ~$19,900 billion)

2017年,美國和中國的貿易關係如下:

美國出口至中國:~$130 billion, about 0.5% of China’s GDP on PPP basis.

美國從中國進口:~$506 billion, about 2.6% of America’s GDP.

美國對中國的貨品貿易逆差:~$375 billion.

美國對中國服務業貿易順差:~ $50 billion.

(以上資料來源:World Factbook)

雖然從整個 GDP 的角度來看,這不是一個很大的數字,可是,對對被影響到的事業,公司和職員來說卻是跟工作和收入攸關的大事。

Trump 可能不在乎貿易戰的結果會對美國有什麼不好的影響。這些美國政客大部分是為了下次選舉而治理國事的。Trump 的腦筋簡單,他想要做的全憑他一己之見而行,因為所有反對他的人早就被他趕走了。Trump 的貿易戰根本沒有經過辯論,也沒有討論它的後果會不會很嚴重,歷史的記錄也沒有加以參考,美國對中國的服務業順差也沒有一併考慮。

我當然沒有足夠的知識和能力來分析貿易戰的結果,不過從歷史的記錄,一般常識和對雙邊貿易的基本瞭解告訴我們,兩國增加關稅絕對不是什麼好事。

這一次美國和中國以及其他幾個國家幹上了,誰輸誰贏還不知道,不過因為每個國家的面子不能輸,貿易戰只會繼續擴大,然後就會變成不可收拾的結果。

Trump 的貿易戰會對美國有好處嗎?我覺得不會。

如果中國人集體減少買美國的東西,中美貿易赤字只會增加,不會減少。美國的情況也不樂觀。因為進口物品關稅增加,WalMart 和許多靠進口的公司的成本會上漲,美國人的花費將被迫增加,美國人無形之中就變窮了。貿易戰對美國消費者的負面影響將會逐漸增加,美國人的購買力下降,美國的 GDP 也會逐漸萎縮,關稅高的事業生意下降,靠這些吃飯的人就慘了。

沒多久,美國的失業率增加,失業救濟金就跟著增加,聯邦政府稅收減少,支出增加,財政部就要多發行國債,美國國債再度瘋狂的增加。國債市場壓力增加。股票市場因為公司利益受損,股票價格下降,IRA,ROTH IRA,401(K),403(B)市值縮水,美國的老百姓窮了,大事不妙,整個國家就要遭殃了。這一連串的連鎖效應就會一個個的像骨牌一樣,一發不可收拾了。

等著瞧吧。沒多久就看得到了。到時候別說我沒有告訴你。自生自滅,你自己看著辦吧!

Bankrupted America borrows more to get by March 30, 2018

Posted by hslu in Congress, 美國, Economics, U.S. dollar.
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$294 billion to be exact this week alone.

What happened to the once fiscal conservative, small government Republican Party? The party of Lincoln has lost its minds, morphed into Democracts, sold its soul to Trump and abandoned American people for a temporary sugar high.

Well, it’s not completely Republican’s fault because, America has been on financial steriods since 2009 and it is hard to shake that satisfying feeling just yet.

What’s going happen to this record high auction and future auctions in 2018 and 2019?

Source: U.S. debt clock

What if the promised boost to the economy from the tax cut never materialized?

How high will the yield of Treasury Bonds go before it can attract enough buyers?

What if foreign buyers stop buying American debt?

And how high will the yield on 10 year Treasury go before it tanks the stock markets?

The Fed has stopped buying government bonds and mortgage securities. It will instead sell bonds and MBS on its book to normalize the interest rate structure. The extra supply will for sure put more pressure on the prices of bonds.

Little by little, yield will go up until the economy and financial market can’t take it any more. Economic activities will contract. Stock market will crush and a recession will follow.

That’s just the way it will play out.

Petroyuan? March 30, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, 石油, Economics, Energy, Renminbi, U.S. dollar, 中國.
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A major step to increase the circulation of renminbi in a big way.

A slap on Trump’s face March 24, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Congress, 特朗普, 美國, Democracy, Economics, Global Warming, Globlization, Military, Politics, Trump, 川普.
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Question: Who dare to do this to the president of the United States of America?

Answer: Ryan and McConnell with help fron Schumer and Pelosi.

How: Forced Trump to sign the Omnibus Spending Bill passed by the Republican-controlled Congress.

What’s so special about this bill:

  • It’s 2,200-page long and no one in Congress has bothered to read it.
  • The WH had said Trump would sign it, then said he might veto it, then said he’s not happy about it and then said he would sign it.

  • Schumer got funding for a tunnel from NJ to NYC. Planned Parenthood got $500 million. JFK Center awarded $40 million. EPA budget at all time high.

  • The USA is good for six more months.
  • Defense funding up by $80 bn: a lot of borrowing for a bankrupted country: the USA.
  • It doesn’t address the fate of Dreamers.
  • It doesn’t fund Trump’s wall. The $1.6bn approved by the Congress is for repairing existing wall and building a new 33 mile long fencing or levees. No money for Trump’s concrete wall.
  • It was clearly a defeat for Trump no matter how Trump spin it. But he said that he’ll never sign another one like this again.

  • Bottom line: Beltway swamp won. Trump lost. Fisical Conservative lost.

戎参,エビス参,長泰廣場,浦東張江 March 23, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Food, Japan, Restaurants, Shanghai, 浦東.
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整個餐館的裏裏外外找不到餐館的中文名字,日本字倒有一大堆,可惜我看不懂,只有去網路上找了。

戎参是它的名字。

這是外面的招牌。可惜手機的照相機性能不夠好,照出來的相片太黑了。

開放式的廚房在後面,邊上有一個不是很正式的吧檯,不大,也沒有什麼酒。Sake 也不多。五個廚子在廚房做事。可惜兩個烤臺太小,忙起來,烤的東西要等好一陣子。

木頭凳子和木頭桌子,很一般燒酒居的擺設。服務員有三個。

我們七點多一點來的。快八點半了,我們還有一個菜;烤雞翅,沒來。廚房的作業可能有問題,因為我們其他的烤物都已經吃完了。其實這時候,戎參的生意已經淡下來了,看起來今天晚上只能做一輪生意。

這不是一家新開的餐館,在這個位置已經一年多了。能夠在這裏熬過來的,也是不簡單了。

我們的房地產中介跟我們說,在張江的兩個購物中心:長泰廣場和匯智廣場,開餐館不容易。雖然來這裏的人非常多,吃飯的時候,許多餐館都要排隊,忙的要排半個鍾頭到一個鍾頭。餐館的房租高,薪水高,競爭大,雖然有許多客人,週末尤其忙,可是還是有很多空的鋪位。除了幾個特別忙,天天要排隊的餐館以外,百分之五,六十的正式餐館都不怎麽賺錢。如果真是這樣,那還真不容易啊。

我們這一次離開上海已經快九個月了。長泰和匯智廣場改變。有些以前熟悉的餐館都不見了:

台灣來的石二锅再見了。很好的位置也救不了它。轉檯不夠快是原因之一。

美國來的 TFI Fridays 關門大吉了。我們經過它的門口許多許多次,就從來沒看過它忙過。好大的餐館,跟美國的一樣。再見了。

美國來的 Dunkin Donut 沒了,

台灣來的四海遊龍游走了,

幾個四川餐館換名字了,

幾個麪店空著沒人敢進來,

一個賣小吃和湯圓的沒了。

Papa Johns 三月初關的門,現在正在重新裝潢。說真的,每次經過它只有小貓兩三隻。我們來過一次,它比 Pizza Hut 和 KFC 要差多了。它能留到現在還真不簡單,重新裝潢,改菜單,想要捲土重來。有志氣。

長泰廣場後面的一長排的啤酒屋,只有三,四家還是開的。生意不好做。

我繞了一圈,估計一下,可能有百分之五的餐館換了老闆或關門了。賣衣服和賣鞋子的店面也關了幾家,大概不到百分之五吧。匯智廣場生意普遍不怎麽好,空的店面可能有百分之七,八吧。不過幾個知名度高,原先就要排隊的餐館仍然要排隊。台灣來的龍門客棧還在,它位置不好,在裏面邊上。我們彎過去看了一看,只有小貓兩三隻。包廂還有幾個人。看來也是在慘淡經營,痛苦的掙扎著。

戎參生意好,雖然沒有排隊,但是也可稱得上座無虛席吧。這在星期二的晚上應該是不容易了。正式餐館的消費比較高,裏面的客人是清一色的年輕高科技員工。沒有大媽,沒有孩子,沒有老家伙。我們兩個是特殊份子,不算。

雖然我們看不到餐館的中文名字可是知道它是日本燒酒居。就是喝啤酒,吃烤肉這一類的飯店。中國菜吃多了,換個口味挺好的。

菜單上的東西不少,我們沒有來過,只有檢看得懂的叫:不外乎燒烤和一些下酒菜之類的。

毛豆在熱鹽水中過的。

烤青魚,味道好,刺多。魚味道重。

柴魚豆腐。要加一點醬油才行。

French fries 差了點,可能是舊油炸出來的。炸的時間也不夠,不夠脆。下次不叫。炸大蝦子還可以。

這是烤飯糰。味道特別,裏面不是白飯,好像是五穀雜糧。外面烤得很脆,很香,不油。配的鹹菜很好吃。有一點酸甜味。

Bacon wrapped sweet peppers 和雞的軟骨。少了點。

烤雞翅。等了好久。廚房的作業有些問題。烤台太小了。下次叫炸雞翅會比較快。

Blame it on Trump March 22, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Globlization, jobs, Trade, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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The world markets will crush some more in the days and weeks to come. The severities will hinge on China’s response. If Boeing becomes the primary target of China’s retaliation against Trump’s threat, DJIA will see more triple digit drops because Boeing (BA, $319.61) accounts for 9.4% of the index.

Source: http://indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html

What does Trump’s trade war mean to you?

  • Your net worth will decline if you have IRA, Roth IRA, 401(k), 403(b), SEP-IRA, TSP, FERS or an account with any of the discount brokers.
  • The stuff you buy at your local Walmart and many other companies will be more expensive.
  • America’s trade deficits will go up. It will not go down because import goods will be morr expensive.
  • If you work for Boeing, you might see a pink slip.
  • If you work for any company affected by Trump’s action, you might see a pink slip.
  • Inflation will creep up which might force the Fed to raise interest rate faster than they have planned. The stock and bond markets don’t like that a bit. Your net worth will take more beating.
  • You will hate Trump more and vote Democrat this November. Democrats will control the House and Trump will be impeached next January. Whether Democrats have the majority of the Senate is inconsequential.
  • When the interest rate goes up, the U.S. government will pay more interest on its national debt. As a result, funding for other services has to drop unless America borrows more to pay for them.
  • If China decides to reduce its purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds, interest rates on these government bonds will go up.
  • Interest rate on student loans and credit card balances will go up. You will have less money to spend. You will be poorer than before.

If global recession comes as a result of Trump’s unilateral action on tariff, the pain on stock markets will spread far and wide.

But, is a recession likely because of a global trade war?

Consider this: In a trade war, America’s trading partners will export less and they will definitely purchase less from America.

The bottom line is: you lose whether you like Trump or not.

And what’s going to happen to Trump? Mueller is digging a hole for Trump to jump in. Trump is digging another hole for him as a backup.

A pretty scary chart March 22, 2018

Posted by hslu in Economics.
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What will the chart look like nine months or a year down the road?

The stock market is trying to figure it out too.

Free trade and patents March 22, 2018

Posted by hslu in 美國, Economics, Globlization, Technology.
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America messed up the idea of free trade

Source: Quartz

http://flip.it/Sd3aVJ

Why medicines are so expansive in the United States?

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