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You probably have no idea March 20, 2018

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 美國, Military, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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Do you know how many wars that the United States of America is fighting now?

Seven, according to an official report from the White House to the U.S. Congress.

Yes, Seven wars. America is fighting seven wars






Syria, and


Actually, America is also fighting several proxy wars as of now:

According to wikipedia, America is currently fighting eight proxy wars in the worl:

  • Allied Democratic Forces insurgency since 1995,
  • War in Darfur since 2003,
  • Paraguayan People’s Army insurgency since 2005,
  • Yemeni Crisis (part of Iran-Saudi Arabia proxy conflicts) since 2011,
  • Syrian Civil War since 2011,
  • Syrian Civil War spillover in Lebanon since 2011,
  • Ukrainian crisis since 2013,
  • 2nd Libyan Civil War since 2014.

Trump was right this time January 12, 2018

Posted by hslu in 美國, Military, Trump, 川普.
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It is big. It has to be bigger than Kim’s.

Source: The Flipboard.

But, can Trump handle it?

You should read this December 31, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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What Tillerson Won’t Admit: The U.S. Has No Leverage https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-28/what-tillerson-won-t-admit-the-u-s-has-no-leverage

It goes to show how little Tillerson and Trump can do in a world where the U.S. has already lost its influence.

With Russia and China forming an economic and military alliance, with Europe firmly against Trumo’s policies, the glory days of American supremacy are over.

A new world order with China in the dominant position has emerged.

Care to count how many friends America still have these days?

Fewer than 10?

Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia, Iran and oil December 15, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 石油, 美國, Energy, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Oil, Putin, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Mohammed bin Salman’s ill-advised ventures have weakened Saudi Arabia’s position in the world


The failed policies of Mohammed bin Salman, the growing influence of Iran and the formation of Shia cresent are the primary reason that WTI is trading above $55 a barrel and Brent crude at $63 a barrel. A 20% war premium has been added to the price of crude oil contracts since November. It has gained more than 30% since the low achieved in late June of this year.

Saudi Arabia has been fighting a proxy war with Iran via Yemen for 2 years with little but many dead Yemenis to show for. Saudi’s oil infrastructure is now under external threat from Yemen which will keep the price of Brent crude at an elevated level. 

US shale oil production is expected to rise because WTI is trading at a few dollars below $60/barrel. However, since US exports very little of its oil, the spread between WTI and Brent crude will widen.

Source: CNBC

Source: CNBC

With WTI comfortably trading above $45 a barrel, roughly the average price of WTI for the past three years, oil company stocks should see a nice rebound in 2018. If the tension between Saudi and Iran flares up further, oil companies should see more upside too. 

With an young and inexperienced prince in Rydah colluding with a dotard and impulsive Trump in the WH, giant mistakes will continue to happen.

It is bad for the world.

It is good for China and it will be great for the US oil companies.

Putin is smiling too.

一江山戰役 December 12, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Military, Taiwan, 台灣, 中國.
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The Mighty U.S. Aircraft Carrier is Dead November 29, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Military, U.S. Foreign Policy, 中國.
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Face It: The Mighty U.S. Aircraft Carrier is Dead


You read it right and I am not joking. 

Mr. Harry J. Kazianis said so. He is the director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest and executive editor of its publishing arm, The National Interest. 

China’s DF-21D (東風-21D 反艦中程彈道飛彈) is formidable. It is THE aircraft carrier killer because:;

  • DF-21D is mobile and can be lauched from a truck.
  • DF-21D is guided using radars, satellite networks (北斗衛星導航系統 BDS), and drones. 
  • DF-21D has two or three maneuverable warheads.
  • DF-21D can strike at speeds approaching Mach 12
  • DF-21D has a range of almost 2,000 miles. 
  • DF-21Ds have been deployed by China in 2009 and are fully operational, according to Pentagon source.

If you think DF-21D is very very bad for America’s carriers, DF-41 is highly deadly for the entire carrier fleet. Consider these:

  • 1st successful test: July 24, 2012.
  • Latest (8th) test: Nov. 5, 2017 when Trump was in Japan.
  • Up to 10 warheads.
  • Range: 8,750 miles.
  • Striking speed: 25 mach.
  • Can be deployed via railroad cars or trucks.

Are DF-21D, DF-41 and DF-5C capable of destroying America’s aircraft carriers? The real answe isn’t very important. As long as these missiles can keep the U.S. carriers away from Chinese coastline to render their short range fighter jets useless, the war against U.S. navy, if there ever is one, is already won. The best these carriers can do is serving as a mobile parking lot for the fighter jets.

Are the glory days of American aircraft carriers over? Maybe not. But, one thing is for sure, America’s aircraft carriers are definitely over the top. 


One more thing about DF-21D: a sinking aircraft carrier carries with it 5,000+ soldiers and up to 100 fighter jets.

It takes only a hundread or so to deploy 10 or 20 DF-21D at the same time.

Terrain Denial Sorties November 29, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Economics, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Taxes, U.S. Foreign Policy, US Government.
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Have you heard of this? 

Probably not. Read on to find out more.

B-52s Are Dropping Hundreds of Dumb Bombs in Afghanistan to Literally Shape the Terrain


This is what U.S. is doing in Afghanistan. Basically it is a very expensive remote landscaping operation w/o using any Latinos. No wonder Trump and Republicans want more money for defense. 

Latinos can be picked up at Home Depot parking lot to do odd jobs for you at $120/day. These 500-lb bombs cost $25,00+ a piece.

Source: Quora

Here are the numbers for FY2018 defense budget:

1.   The base budget for DoD is $574.5 billion. 

2.   The Overseas Contingency Operations budget, a fancy name for fighting the ISIS, is $64.6 billion.

3.   Other agencies related to the protection of the nation is $173 billion: VA, the State Dept., Homeland security, FBI and the National Nuclear Security Administration, etc.

4.   $12 billion in OCO funds for the Homeland Security to fight ISIS.

Total for defense related budget: $824.6 billion. It is the second largest spending item after Social Security which costs tax payers ~$1 trillion.

War With Iran and “window of opportunity” November 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Middle East, Military, Muslim, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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In 1987, a Rogue U.S. Navy Admiral Schemed for War With Iran


I wonder what other “window of opportunities” American military has been or is contemplating with?

A tactic nuclear war with North Korea, Russia, China or Iran?

With a story like this, it goes a long way to show the entire world that America is really dangerous in dealing with other nations in the world. 

Basically, its mentality is “It is my way or highway.”

The message to the world is simply this: “Arm yourself to defend your country or be slaughtered by the United States of America when you are least expected.”

中國,美國與世界霸權 November 14, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Military, U.S. Foreign Policy, 中國.
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白人的勢力會逐漸衰退,少數民族的勢力會逐漸增加,白人保守派和激進派(川普帶起的)會感到威脅,美國的內部會繼續分裂,美國的經濟也會因為外國的頂尖份子不再留在美國而導致美國的生產力 productivity 逐漸下降。Silicon valley’s innovation is too narrowly focused to pull the US GDP growth to 3+%. (請問有多少美國的中產階級(median income $46,326 all household,$67,348 for dual income family)有錢買越來越貴的自動駕駛車?誰會投資龐大的沿路基本設施呢?)

If the U.S. GDP grew below the 3% level, GOP’S tax reform will reduce our taxes but it will add trillions of debt to the $20.5 trillion American tax payers (not all Americans because 48% Americans do not pay federal tax) already owe. 美國國債就會讓美國 (read 納稅人) 窮於應付. Baby boomers retirement (labor participation rate will reduce) will accelerate America’s financial demise。如果美國經濟復甦,它會使得 Fed 增加利息更快,而增加美國的利息負擔。

在美國的工廠裏,robots 會逐漸取代人工,美國的低階層勞工會被取代,(列如,基層的律師都會被取代)。Robots 的使用使得社會成本 (政府資助,food stamps, social welfare 等等)增加,政府赤字亦會高漲。失業入口增加,貧富不均會更加嚴重,階級矛盾就不會停止。

自古以來,帝國的衰弱都是因為它們 stretched too far. (波斯帝國,埃及帝國,羅馬帝國,拜占庭帝國,中國的秦,漢,唐帝國,奧圖曼帝國,西班牙帝國,英法帝國,和美國帝國,一個個都繼續的從歷史上消失). 美國在全世界 30 個國家中有150,000 軍人,700+ 個軍事基地,花 $100 – $200  billion/year來維持。加上10個航空母艦戰鬥群,美國的川普和共和黨還想增加國防預算, 圍堵中國和蘇俄的崛起。這些軍事支出一定會導致國庫空虛,到最後,納稅人和中國,台灣,蘇俄,阿拉伯拒絕買賬,美國就會變成一個外強中乾的紙老虎。

在中東,美國2003年入侵伊拉克,導致它和伊朗聯盟(都是shiite)。美國入侵 Syria (也是 Shiite)給蘇俄一個機會在中東設立了軍事基地。以前伊朗無法進入中東因為伊拉克的Hussein擋住它了。如今,謝謝美國的幫忙,殺死Hussein (a Sunni) 伊朗,伊拉克,敘利亞,也門,黎巴嫩,已經成為中東的霸權。美國對中東的影響力已經蕩然無存。這也是為什麼沙烏地阿拉伯不能再相信美國,而要自勵更生的道理。這些發展,對美國並不是一個壞事(省錢),但是它對美國霸權確是一個嚴重的打擊。目前,歐盟的最主要國家:德國,英國,法國已經排斥美國。美國在中亞和非洲沒有任何投資和影響力。美國在中東的影響力日漸衰退,北韓視美國爲其第一號敵人。中南半島,菲律賓也在中國的掌握之中。美國的朋友只剩下日本,韓國,半個台灣和半個印度。印度的政治結構,階級問題,政府腐敗和社會的落後,使得印度無法在短時間內有任何重大的發展,也沒有辦法趕上中國。光是環境污染,閉塞的社會和跟中國對立的政策就是印度無法解決的問題。

這些外交問題,北韓問題,中東問題,社會問題,教育問題,非法移民問題,川普本身被Special prosecutor 調查問題,2018大權移轉至民主黨問題,槍支問題,歧視黑人問題,財務問題,債務問題,deficits 問題,有些州政府沒錢問題,Puerto Rico 問題,天災補助問題,美元可能會被人民幣取代問題,石油美元變成石油人民幣問題,聯邦政府政策問題,貧富不均的分配問題,種族歧視問題,IS問題,白人積極分子問題都不是一個強壯的國家應有的現象。而美國對這些問題根本沒有什麼辦法來改變(你一件一件的往下看,看看你能不能想的出什麼好方法嗎?)。你說這難道不是美國帝國衰弱的象徵嗎?



走投無路只有濫竽充數了? November 14, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Computer, Congress, 美國, Democracy, Economics, Islam, Middle East, Military, Obama, Politics, Taiwan, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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不過,美國在中東的兩次戰爭,也把美國的年輕人打怕了。布希,噢巴馬和川普相繼的送他們去阿富汗,伊拉克,敘利亞和 Niger,可是他們不知道為什麼打仗,不知道為什麼去死,不知道為誰的利益而戰。有些人在阿富汗打了十幾年的戰,還不知道是為了美國人打還是為了阿富汗人打。



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