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David Roche is missing the point January 9, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 石油, 美國, Global Affair, U.S. Foreign Policy, 中國.
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Roche’s analysis is predicated on one of two scenarios playing out in the Korean peninsula:

  1. The U.S. moves to contain North Korea and, by default, China with missiles from the east,
  2.  Trump takes out Kim Jong Un through a strategic attack. 

Rocheconcluded that both options would signal China’s ineffectiveness at handling the situation and would result in an “almost inevitable cold war” between the U.S. and China.

I believe that Roche missed a key fact about the relationship between the U.S. and China: America has been in a cold war with China ever since Chinese oil company Cnoon was forced out trying to buy Unocal in August 2005 in a $18.5 take over bid. 

America treated China as a threat to its national security and put up a wall to slow China’s progress down. 

That’s when the cold war between America and China started.

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Trump lost the war against Kim Jong Un January 7, 2018

Posted by hslu in 美國, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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But, the narcissistic Trump just couldn’t stop patting himself on the back.

Source: The Guardian

What Trump forgot to say was this: ‘However, even with my menacing tweets, my rhetoric, my tough stance and the bigger nuclear bomb button on my desk, Kim Jong Un repeatly ignored me, tested ballistic missiles many times and threaten South Korea and Japanese with nuclear weapons.’

‘Now that they are talking about Olympics and I saved my face, I am going to stop tweeting because my tweets didn’t stop North Korea from becoming a nuclear power in the region.’

Shouldn’t Trump insist that South Korea leave North Korea out of the Olympics instead because Kim Jong Un has been such a bad boy ever since Trump started living in the WH? The rocket man has given me such a bad time and even called me a dotard.

Maybe Trump has forgotten all those unpleasant insults from Kim Jong Un already.

You should read this December 31, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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What Tillerson Won’t Admit: The U.S. Has No Leverage https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-28/what-tillerson-won-t-admit-the-u-s-has-no-leverage

It goes to show how little Tillerson and Trump can do in a world where the U.S. has already lost its influence.

With Russia and China forming an economic and military alliance, with Europe firmly against Trumo’s policies, the glory days of American supremacy are over.

A new world order with China in the dominant position has emerged.

Care to count how many friends America still have these days?

Fewer than 10?

德國之聲中文網:川普向北京跪拜 December 28, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Muslim, One Belt One Road, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 一帶一路, 中國.
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評論:亞洲不需要川普 | 時事評論 | DW | 23.12.2017

http://m.dw.com/zh/%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E4%BA%9A%E6%B4%B2%E4%B8%8D%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E7%89%B9%E6%9C%97%E6%99%AE/a-41906965?&zhongwen=trad

Pretty harsh language from a German to America’s tweeter-in-chief, isn’t it?

But, it was the way it has been for Trump. You might call him 吃軟怕硬,紙老虎,協商家,老朽,dotard。

The UN 9 December 26, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Global Affair, Middle East, Religion, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Nine countries united to vote against a U.N. resolution condemning Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and move the U.S. Embassy there from Tel Aviv.

Here are the nine:

  1. USA
  2. Israel 
  3. Micronesia
  4. Nauru
  5. Togo and Tonga 
  6. Palau
  7. The Marshall Islands
  8. Guatemala
  9. Honduras

There you have it. These seven countries knelt under the wrath of American power but they should continue to receive handouts from the U.S. BTW, have you ever heard of Nauru or Palau? I certainly don’t.

35 countries voted abstain which in essence were YES votes. If they thought Trump has done the right thing, they would have voted NO like UN9 did. Among them were Canada, Australia, Mexico, Rwanda and Uganda. Trump probably won’t ask Mexico to pay for the wall after Mexico’s vote. Canada will continue export its heavy oil to the U.S. I am not sure what the U.S. said to Uganda and Rwanda which made them not follow the majority’s action.

Haley’s verbal threat before the vote, ‘we’ll be taking names’, finally showed what America really is to the world: a bully, a vengeful weasel and an imperious thug.

Well, if the U.S. wants to cut off foreign aids to these countries, so be it. China probably will be more than happy to take up the slack.

Of course, not a single Muslim country voted with the U.S. and Trump’s move simply will fan more hatreds from muslims against the U.S. and Israel. 

What has Trump gained from this move other than fulfiled a campaigm promise to a small group of people? 

But, at what price will America and American people pay for this modern day crusade against the muslims? 

It is obvious that American foreign policy has incite a long strings of hostile moves and suicide attacks against American interests in the U.S. and abroad since the 1993 World Trade Center truck bombing and the 2001 9-11 suicide attacks.

Will we see more attacks from the Muslims against the U.S. because Trump’s move is a perfect material for future recuitment by al-qaeda and other Islamic groups.

Gone are the horses, swords, Shamshirs, halberds, bows, crossbows, arrows and spears. Todays, the weapons of choice are drones, fighter jets, Hellfire missiles, PGMs, IEDs and suicide bombs jackets. 

One thing is for sure with Trump’s decision to officially recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the war between Muslims and the U.S. will continue and intensify.

It may last another thousand years.




Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia, Iran and oil December 15, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 石油, 美國, Energy, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Oil, Putin, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Mohammed bin Salman’s ill-advised ventures have weakened Saudi Arabia’s position in the world

http://flip.it/93wubN

The failed policies of Mohammed bin Salman, the growing influence of Iran and the formation of Shia cresent are the primary reason that WTI is trading above $55 a barrel and Brent crude at $63 a barrel. A 20% war premium has been added to the price of crude oil contracts since November. It has gained more than 30% since the low achieved in late June of this year.

Saudi Arabia has been fighting a proxy war with Iran via Yemen for 2 years with little but many dead Yemenis to show for. Saudi’s oil infrastructure is now under external threat from Yemen which will keep the price of Brent crude at an elevated level. 

US shale oil production is expected to rise because WTI is trading at a few dollars below $60/barrel. However, since US exports very little of its oil, the spread between WTI and Brent crude will widen.

Source: CNBC

Source: CNBC

With WTI comfortably trading above $45 a barrel, roughly the average price of WTI for the past three years, oil company stocks should see a nice rebound in 2018. If the tension between Saudi and Iran flares up further, oil companies should see more upside too. 

With an young and inexperienced prince in Rydah colluding with a dotard and impulsive Trump in the WH, giant mistakes will continue to happen.

It is bad for the world.

It is good for China and it will be great for the US oil companies.

Putin is smiling too.

The Mighty U.S. Aircraft Carrier is Dead November 29, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Military, U.S. Foreign Policy, 中國.
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Face It: The Mighty U.S. Aircraft Carrier is Dead

http://flip.it/cvrcga

You read it right and I am not joking. 

Mr. Harry J. Kazianis said so. He is the director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest and executive editor of its publishing arm, The National Interest. 

China’s DF-21D (東風-21D 反艦中程彈道飛彈) is formidable. It is THE aircraft carrier killer because:;

  • DF-21D is mobile and can be lauched from a truck.
  • DF-21D is guided using radars, satellite networks (北斗衛星導航系統 BDS), and drones. 
  • DF-21D has two or three maneuverable warheads.
  • DF-21D can strike at speeds approaching Mach 12
  • DF-21D has a range of almost 2,000 miles. 
  • DF-21Ds have been deployed by China in 2009 and are fully operational, according to Pentagon source.

If you think DF-21D is very very bad for America’s carriers, DF-41 is highly deadly for the entire carrier fleet. Consider these:

  • 1st successful test: July 24, 2012.
  • Latest (8th) test: Nov. 5, 2017 when Trump was in Japan.
  • Up to 10 warheads.
  • Range: 8,750 miles.
  • Striking speed: 25 mach.
  • Can be deployed via railroad cars or trucks.

Are DF-21D, DF-41 and DF-5C capable of destroying America’s aircraft carriers? The real answe isn’t very important. As long as these missiles can keep the U.S. carriers away from Chinese coastline to render their short range fighter jets useless, the war against U.S. navy, if there ever is one, is already won. The best these carriers can do is serving as a mobile parking lot for the fighter jets.

Are the glory days of American aircraft carriers over? Maybe not. But, one thing is for sure, America’s aircraft carriers are definitely over the top. 

“生不逢時恨事多”是也。

One more thing about DF-21D: a sinking aircraft carrier carries with it 5,000+ soldiers and up to 100 fighter jets.

It takes only a hundread or so to deploy 10 or 20 DF-21D at the same time.

Terrain Denial Sorties November 29, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Economics, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Taxes, U.S. Foreign Policy, US Government.
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Have you heard of this? 

Probably not. Read on to find out more.

B-52s Are Dropping Hundreds of Dumb Bombs in Afghanistan to Literally Shape the Terrain

http://flip.it/fX0A6_

This is what U.S. is doing in Afghanistan. Basically it is a very expensive remote landscaping operation w/o using any Latinos. No wonder Trump and Republicans want more money for defense. 

Latinos can be picked up at Home Depot parking lot to do odd jobs for you at $120/day. These 500-lb bombs cost $25,00+ a piece.

Source: Quora

Here are the numbers for FY2018 defense budget:

1.   The base budget for DoD is $574.5 billion. 

2.   The Overseas Contingency Operations budget, a fancy name for fighting the ISIS, is $64.6 billion.

3.   Other agencies related to the protection of the nation is $173 billion: VA, the State Dept., Homeland security, FBI and the National Nuclear Security Administration, etc.

4.   $12 billion in OCO funds for the Homeland Security to fight ISIS.

Total for defense related budget: $824.6 billion. It is the second largest spending item after Social Security which costs tax payers ~$1 trillion.


War With Iran and “window of opportunity” November 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Middle East, Military, Muslim, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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In 1987, a Rogue U.S. Navy Admiral Schemed for War With Iran

http://flip.it/CF.F8L

I wonder what other “window of opportunities” American military has been or is contemplating with?

A tactic nuclear war with North Korea, Russia, China or Iran?

With a story like this, it goes a long way to show the entire world that America is really dangerous in dealing with other nations in the world. 

Basically, its mentality is “It is my way or highway.”

The message to the world is simply this: “Arm yourself to defend your country or be slaughtered by the United States of America when you are least expected.”

Trump and Mohammed bin Salman November 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in 石油, 美國, Energy, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Muslim, Obama, Taiwan, Taxes, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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Trump has unleashed the Saudi Arabia we always wanted — and feared

http://flip.it/nNbGLY

Trump’s first foreign trip after his inauguration was to Saudi Arabia. 

Why?

What did his advisors tell him? 

What would he gain by talking to Mohammed bin Salman other than undo what Obama did to the Middle East before him?

Did he really think that he can make his mark in history with peace agreements between the enemies in the Middle East?

Did he try to lend legitimacy to a young and untested Saudi prince who requested the meeting in the first place?

Did Trump believe that Saudi Arabia might be on the cusp of forming an alliance with Russia to dominate the world oil market?

Did Trump want to tell the prince in person that America will no longer insert itself in any future Middle East conflict because Saudi is a big boy who should handle itself like a grown man instead of hiding behind the U.S.?

Did Trump just want to be bold,  unpredictable and keep people guessing?

Or mabe Trump want to check out Saudi’s golden toilet?

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