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該來的總會來 March 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in Debt and deficit, Economics, Trump.
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如果這個報導如期發生,那就糟糕了。如果你想買房子或,賣房子,趁早。

不過,這是 Goldman Sachs 的推測,不一定會實現。我倒覺得 Yellen 大媽不會貿然行事,最多她也不過是做個樣子,賣個幾十億,開個頭,讓後來的人收拾這個爛攤子。反正 The Fed 欠這麽多錢,也不是她的錯,她勇敢的開始減少QE的行動,也可以沾點光。
再說, Trump 是絕對不會把她留下來的。她明年年初是一定會收到 “You are fired” 的粉紅小單。反正她也風光夠了,下台收政府的退休金,日子好過的很。她在位的這幾年,兢兢業業,守著她從教科書上學到的理論,一步一步慢慢的走,蕭規曹隨,錯不到那裏。黑暗隧道的那一邊已經有光亮出來了。只要熬過這幾個月,成功身退,歷史留名,有什麽不好。搞個大動作,不是 Yellen 大媽的作風。

套一句 Yellen 大媽和 Bernanke 大叔最喜歡說的話來結尾吧:”預知後事如何,請聽下回分解。”

What can the Fed do? Not much! August 11, 2010

Posted by hslu in Economics, Obama, Politics, stocks.
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After sleeping on Bernanke’s comment over night, the stock market tanked today.

People  on Wall Street and main streets asked “What can Bernanke do? ”

I think “Not much.”

He has bought $1.2 trillion of MBS and $300 billion government debt but people are not rushing back to the housing market to take advantages of 50-year low interest rates. People who wanted to buy a house have already done so and took $8,000 to the bank thanks to Obama. People who wanted to buy a car has already traded in their old ones and drove their new car to deposit the $4,000 government check to their banks. Short term interest rate is not too far from 0% and long tern rates are making new lows almost every day.

Obama has kept part of his stimulus money for 2012 in time for his re-election while letting the economy suffer. In the mean time, Obama and the Democrats have borrowed money from our children and grand children to keep the unemployment checks going to the jobless without cutting government spending. It appears to me that jobless rate is fixing to go up in the next couple of months because

  • China slowing down
  • Euro zone in tightening mode
  • Housing market continues to suffer despite low interest rates and,
  • US consumers have turned to savers

Since Obama hasn’t rested except taking a few vacations here and there, the revival of the US economy is rested completely on Bernanke’s shoulders.

But, it pains me to remind you that Bernanke has run out of silver bullets.