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2nd Korean war July 31, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Japan, Military, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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Source: BBC News

Is it a S. Korean problem?

No doubt about it. 

Instead of raining cats and dogs, DMZ, Seoul and a big chunk of S. Korea will see bombs of all sorts raining down from the sky before the U.S. can surgically nuetralize threats from N. Korea missile sites. There might be nuclear, bio and chemical varieties.

S. Koreans won’t like Trump’s call for actions either because millions of S. Koreans have relatives in the north. They don’t want to see them die from American bombs. 
Will S. Korea invade the North without U. S. participation? 

No.

Will S. Korean soldiers kill N. Korean soldiers and vice versa?

No, if they have a say. They are all Koreans after all.

So, let me get this straight:

After Trump tweets out the order to bomb the hell out of N. Korea, it is the Koreans who will suffer the most and it is the Koreas which will endure the most damages. 

It isn’t a good picture and it doesn’t make any sense for Mr. Moon at all.

Is it a problem for Japan?

Definitely. Japan had twice occupied Korea in the past, slaughtered many Koreans and ruled Korean people for centuries. For that, Koreans hate Japan and that’s why N. Korea wants nothing less than total revenge against Japan if a war breaks out between the U.S. and N. Korea. 

Then there is the issue of Japan denying the roles of comfort women during WWII. 

Once war breaks out, N. Korea will try to do all it can to inflict damages to Japan and its people one way or the other. 

Is it a problen for Russia?

Nope. There might be nuclear fall outs in Russia if nukes start to fly. Russia will contunue to supply all the weapons N. Korea wants and provide intelligence data which N. Korea needs to fight the war.

Putin should benefit the most from the war between the U.S.A. and N. Korea.

Is it a problem for China?

To some degree. China may see thousands of N. Korean migrants crossing over the Yalu River if Trump decides to bomb N. Korea. Nuclear fall outs in China can’t be dismissed either. 

But, N. Korea will not invade China and it will not send missiles to the direction of China either. It is annoying to China because of all the tweets from Trump but the war isn’t a problem for China per se.

In the end, China will stand behind N. Korea in spirit but will not fight for the country like it did in the first Korean war. If N. Korea requests weapons, China will provide them so that Kim’s regime can defend itself.

After the war, China will offer N. Korea interest free loans and help N. Korea re-build. China’s excess capacity gets new orders and N. Korea gets new factories, new roads and new railroads. It’s a win win situation.

Is it a problem for the U.S.?

Yes. 50+K American soldiers in DMZ and Camp Humphreys will be in harms way. Nukes, bio and chemical bombs could come down on them. Andrews AFB will become a busy place. Body bag makers will see a rush of new orders. Bomb makers will work overtime to re-stock the pile. U.S. economy gets a small boost. 

American ship and carriers in the vicinity of Korea and Japan and other regions in the Pacific Ocean may face threats from N. Korean subs even though these subs are old and out dated. 

American soil will be spared just like all world wars in the past. But, N. Korean spies will try to cause damages to American assets in the world. 

Can America do a surgical attack on N. Korean targets just to give Kim a warning?

No. 

The U.S. won’t. It has to do a “shock and awe” job in the beginning to eliminate major threats from the N. Korea. 

To do that, America has to amass a large number of fighter planes before bombing starts. If America wants to invade N. Korea either with S. Korean troops (preferred by America, of course,) or American soldiers, they need to move soldiers to the DMZ. That will give N. Korea ample chance to strike the first blow to American soldiers and South Korean urban centers. It can get pretty ugly very fast.
Is it a problem for North Korea?

Certainly. Millions of N. Korean soldiers and civilians will die if the 2nd Korean War drags on. Infrastructure in N. Korea will for sure be damaged.

Will Kim die? Probably not. He’ll be hidding in the bunker which can stand direct hits from Mother of all bombs. 

Will Kim be captured? Not likely unless America sends in foot soldiers into Pyongyang to mop up the floor clean after devastating N. Korea.

Whose war is it anyway?

So, is Kim more of a problem for S. Korean people or is it a problem for Trump and America?

The answer is clearly the latter. Koreans don’t want a war. Moon want a dialog with Kim and it is Trump and American generals who are more eager to start a war between two Koreas. 

So, why is Trump so eager to stir up the pot? Because Trump is in trouble at home with low voters approval ratings and Mueller. The real reason for Trump’s N. Korea tweets is that by kicking the N. Korea conflict up a notch it might divert media’s attention away from Russian investigation. 

A bigger question

Shouldn’t S. Koreans have more to say about a war between the two Koreas instead of Trump?

Moon should make it very clear to Trump on this important point unless Trump is sending American soldiers into the North too.

A Black Swam from the Korean peninsula?

So, is the 2nd Korean war a “black swan” event for the world financial markets to worry about?

Not by the action of three major indices. All three are either at or near all time highs. 

The only logical conclusion one can make is that despite all the tweets from Trump, the 2nd Korean war won’t happen.

BBC News: The end of the Anglo-American order? July 6, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Energy, Global Affair, Globlization, Middle East, Oil, Shanghai, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:

The end of the Anglo-American order? – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40227270

With China being the largest crude oil importer in the world, with Renminbi being accepted by central banks as a reserve currency and with Saudi Arabia and some OPEC countries don’t like what America is doing in the Middle East, is it likely that we will soon see crude oil being traded at Renminbi instead of the U.S. dollar? 

Of course I am not talking about all oil trades will be settled on Renminbi but what about bi-lateral oil trades between Saudi and China and Nigeria and China. You know which side Rusdia stands on this. 

The Renminbi bilateral swap lines between China and 33 (wiki data) other countries will be replaced with a new trading platform next year. In the past, these swaps were cleared by SWIFT which is under America’s influence. The new platform will be under China’s control and will be located in Shanghai away from SWIFT.

The world order is fast changing in front of our eyes if you care to look.

Will South Korea’s Moon reshape its military relations with US? July 6, 2017

Posted by hslu in Cold War, Global Affair, Military, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Moon-reshaping-South-Korea-s-military-relations-with-US?page=2

I didn’t know until now that South Korea doesn’t have control of its own military at time of military conflict.

Totally inconceivable.

With a nominal GDP of almost $1.5 trillion (ppp ~$2 trillion) and a 2.7% GDP growth rate, South Korea no doubt can afford a modern military force.

It goes to show that when someone else is feeding you, you (S. Korea) become lazy and easily satisfied with what you have. I call this 不長進。

At the same time, while America deliberately makes South Korea relying on the U.S. to keep North Korea at bay, America has the perfect reason to stay in Korean peninsula to keep an eye on China and Russia.

South Korea should take a look of what Israel is doing to defend itself from its enemies.

S. Korea’s GDP is almost 5 times bigger than that of Israel.

Let’s see what Moon can do in the next four years. Trump is tired of paying for it. Why don’t you take it over and let the U.S. go?

Definitely May 14, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Global Affair.
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The more trouble America has, the better it is for the world and China.

The U.S. opposed One Belt One Road and the BRICS Bank (now the New Development Bank) when Xi Jinping first proposed this strategic alliance in 2013 and later threatened its allies not to joint this initiative. None of them except Japan took American advice.

Why?

Because the United States realized that it threatened America’s leadership in the world. 

So what America did to counter this threat? Pivot to the East.

Now the U.S. and Japan want in. 恬不知恥是也。

Just make them second or third tier observers with no right to vote.

BRI vs PE.

I for one like to see BRI took the lead not only on world trade but also on making friends in the world for decades and cennturies. What America leadership gave the world was one firthy rich and powerful bully, a few so-called allies, a poppy, a pawn and many enemies.

If you haven’t heard of this place, you soon will May 12, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Liberal Media, Middle East, Russia, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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Tashkurgan, China.

American press will not print anything relating to this place. American reporters will not tell you any story about this small town along the China-Pakistan border. It is the most westerly settlement in China and soon it will be the center of activity for the most ambitious infrastructural project in history: “One Belt and One Road Initiative.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/12/chinese-president-belt-and-road-initiative

Tashkurgan map

Source: The Guardian

This weekend, several world leaders; Russian’s Vladimir Putin,  Pakistan’s Nawaz Sharif and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be in Beijing to hear hear what China’s Xi Jinping has to offer.

Have you noticed what Putin, Sharif and Erdoğan have in common? None of them is a friend of the United states.

Actually, the “One Belt and One Road Initiative” is designed to offset America’s “Pivot to the East” strategy. America, with its willing foot soldier, Japan, can block China all it want on the east, China will build an open pathway to Central Asia, Southeast and Southwest Asia, India, Indian Ocean, Middle East, Mediterranean Sea, Eastern Europe, Russia, Western Europe and Africa. Railroads, highways, pipelines, Internet cables and sea lanes will link these regions with China leaving the United States all alone in the Pacific Ocean.

Soon, with direct capital investment from China, areas around Tashkurgan in western China and eastern Pakistan will transform into one of the busiest regions in Central Asia since merchants first walked the silk road more than a thousand years ago.

Again, American press will not print this story. They want you to just forget this desolate place where few people in the world have ever walked.

Tashkurgan mountain scene

Credit: Tom Phillips for the Guardian.

In a decade or two, people who ride in this tractor trailer will be worth millions. If you are young, rich and dare, buy a few hundred acres of land along this two-lane highway, your future generation will thank you.

A crane and two clams fight to the death April 11, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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The fisherman on the sideline benefits without doing a thing.

In Chinee, it means:

鷸蚌相争,魚翁得利。

Pictures are worth a thousand words. 

You’ll know who is the crane and who are the clams.
You’ll have to guess who the fisherman is.

The U.S. wants Assad out. America is building another nation. It just can’t stop messing around with other nation’s business, can it?

Trump apparently wants to start two regional wars, one chemical and one nuclear, at the same time. 

Now, how many Koreans are there in the United States and how many of them are from the North of the 38th parallel?

What will North Korea do? 

What will Trump do?

What will Russia do? Back to “Cold War” again?

若要人不知 February 15, 2017

Posted by hslu in Cold War, Debt and deficit, Economics, Election, Global Affair, Globlization, Islam, Muslim, Obama, Obamacare, Putin, Russia.
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非常簡單:除非己莫為。

Politicians always blame others first for their own mistakes which was what Trump did in this case. The way it goes around Trump these days, more leaks will definitely come out of Trump’s White House whether Trump likes them or not. 

Every reporter in Washington DC dreams of getting a “Watergate” moment in his or her reporting life. They are waiting. They have time. And they have patience.

What comes next? February 4, 2017

Posted by hslu in Cold War, Islam, Middle East, Military, Oil, Putin, Trump.
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Okay. The war between the U.S. and Iran officially starts today. Trump won’t back down. Neither will Iran’s Supteme leader, Ali Khamenei. 

The big question is this: which side will Putin be on: Iran or the U.S.? What about China?

Armed confrontation is just a matter of time. Terrorist attacks against American interests, domestic and foreign, will intensity.

Sooner or later, Iran will abandon U.S. dollar as the currency to buy Iran’s oil.

BBC News: How much truth is there in Trump’s TPP claims? January 25, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Global Affair, Obama, Trump.
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How much truth is there in Trump’s TPP claims? – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38728059


Answer: Not much at all.

I didn’t like TPP because it was an secretive deal with zero input from the Republican Party and American citizens. TPP would permit companies to sue governments if they believe these countries change their policies to favor state-provided services.

Furthermore, TPP’s primarily beneficiaried are U.S. international companies with low or zero tariff on as many as 18,000 U.S. products.

For instance, American auto exports would grow when tariffs as high as 70% in certain markets are removed.

U.S. farmers would teapthe most rewards. Certain food items exported to some countries are taxed up to 40%. For instance, soybeans are taxed at 35% and dairy, sugar, rice and seafood see taxes as high as 98%.

Without a doubt, the political undertone of TPP is to contain China’s rise. The U.S. wanted to use TPP to fence off China’s economy’s expansion, to put Chinese companies at a disadvantage. 

In essence, the U.S. wanted to use TPP as a weapon to fight an economic war against China.

Now that Trump pushed TPP off the table, Trump is waging his version of an economic war against China.

Let the fireworks begin!

好戲要開場了 January 15, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Military, Trump.
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你死我活?同歸於盡?萬劫不復?適可而止?點到為止?裝模作樣?鬼話連篇?作繭自縛?好戲連臺?戰事連連?草草收場?

Source:Fox News

結果如何不是我們這些小市民可以預測的。你自己選個結果吧。

說不定雷聲大雨點小,只聽樓梯響,不見人下來。

Trump put himself in a bind with his tweets but China refuse to negotiate the “One China” policy.

What’s your next move, Trump?

我希望兩邊都能夠找一個漂亮的台階下。最好是大事化小,小事化無。要不然那真有好戲可以看了。

好了,開幕了。請鼓掌。