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China and U.S. relationship October 5, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 石油, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Military, Xi Jinping, 一帶一路, 中國.
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The Trump administration just ‘reset’ the U.S.-China relationship

Columnist, Washington Post’ October 4 at 7:44 PM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-trump-administration-just-reset-the-us-china-relationship/2018/10/04/c727266e-c810-11e8-b2b5-79270f9cce17_story.html?utm_term=.ddd307806a95

 

Pence said this in his speech: ” (T)he United States will newly confront Beijing’s worldwide economic and strategic aggression, oppose its internal repression and compel the Chinese government to change its behavior on both fronts.”

What Pence should recognize was this: Washington has spread its worldwide economic and strategic aggression, imposed internal repression and should have changed its behavior on both fronts a long time ago but hasn’t.”

Pence also “laid out a litany of ways the Chinese Communist Party spreads influence inside the United States and around the world.”

Pence forgot that: “America has imposed economic aggression, military adventurism, influence operations, authoritarian expansion and nations’ building activities around the world for decades.”

Pence also said that “We will not relent until our relationship with China is grounded in fairness, reciprocity and respect for our sovereignty,”

What Pence failed to point out was this: America has never respected other nation’s sovereignty and this should change so that other nations can begin.to respect America’s sovereignty too.

America is a threat to the world. Every nation in the world, except a few like Japan and Saudi Arabia, know that.

I like to see China’s response to America’s threats.

 

俗語說得好:“兵來將擋,水來土掩。”你美國有什麼招數儘管發出來吧。“

 

建議:先動動嘴皮子。馬上發表一篇文章把美國在過去 70 年在國際關係上做過的壞事一一的列舉出來。這個應該比較簡單。在此同時,暗地裏準備好對付美國的辦法。看美國出那一招,中國就找出他的致命傷,打他個措手不及。

其實最有效的方法就是把美國的經濟打出千瘡百孔,弄他個元氣大傷。美國人只要沒事做,除了伸手拿救濟金,他們就沒折了。一般美國人熬不了幾個禮拜的。這些美國人有新車,有電視,有很多張信用卡,有貸款,沒有積蓄,沒有準備金,沒有退休金,叫他們現在那四百塊錢出來他們都拿不出來。到時候,這些人呱唧呱唧的叫,Trump 就會下臺一鞠躬了。

 

 

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How Putin created chaos in the U.S. by making a fool out of Trump September 15, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Democracy, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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http://flip.it/Z5cN8A

The author was an advisor on Russia for Bill Clinton.

He laid out plausible explanations on Putin’s tactics intended to wreck havoc in Trump’s presidency and create doubts about America’s democratic system.

The purposes of Putin’s actions on 2016 presidential election and beyond are straight forward:

I would argue that China is very happy with that outcome too.

For the mid-term election, the author has this to say:

The analyst mentioned here was an unnamed Russian insider.

重創 July 15, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 石油, 美國, Economics, Oil, Trump, U.S. dollar, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Departing ZTE executive describes ‘deep humiliation’ in farewell letter – Channel NewsAsia

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/technology/departing-zte-executive-describes–deep-humiliation–in-farewell-letter-10508584

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沒有話講,ZTE 這一戰,中國輸的很慘,輸的抬不起頭來,輸的很沒有面子,輸的很苦。跟啞巴吃黃連一樣,苦到心裏面去了,還不能說。

美國願意放寬對 ZTE 七年的制裁不是因為美國擔心 ZTE 七萬多名員工沒有事做,或者是不願意傷害到中國人的自尊心和感受,也不是要给中國的半導體工業開放一條生路,而是因為 ZTE 的上游廠商,像 Qualcomm,Google,Acacia 和其他公司等等,沒有零件用。Acacia 的股票在這個禁令發佈以後大跌40%。ZTE 無法開工,Acacia 也要關門。當然,它也赤裸裸的跟中國和世界宣佈誰是半導體工業的老大。美國覺得,它已經給中國一個嚴重的警告,那暫時不要把事情做的太絕,見好即收,放 ZTE 一條生路吧。

.

雖然 ZTE 的塵埃尚未真正的落定,美國國會也還有一些議員反對讓 ZTE 死灰復燃,ZTE 已經開始依照美國開出來很嚴厲的條件,慢慢的往復原的路上走了。雖然這條路還很漫長,美國會不會中途反悔也是未定的變數,不過這個 417 制裁毫無疑問的是 “中國夢” 的一個警鐘,有是 “中國製造2025” 的一個當頭棒喝,它也代表美國正式的對中國的崛起和壯大宣戰。美國要抵制中國的科技化,要阻止中國想要改變美國花了七十年的時間建立的以美國爲中心的世界秩序的野心。這是美國很狠的一步棋。而悲哀的是,中國只有捱打的份,沒有一點還手的餘地。

如今,許多跡象顯示 ZTE 有可能可以苟延殘喘的活下去,ZTE 的一部分工程師和工作人員也能夠準備再開始付他們的房屋貸款, ZTE 的供應鏈廠商也可以開工生產,許多跟 ZTE 有關的政府官員和相關的工業主管也可以偷偷的摸一把冷汗。中國的中央單位默默的,深深的嘆了一口氣,曉得事態的嚴重性,更知道他們還有好多事在等著他們去做。

同時,他們也知道這個 417 事件對中國影響之深遠和對中國崛起的重創實在是無法用筆墨來形容。

毫無疑問的,所有中國的半導體工程師都知道當今中國核心半導體工業的處境有多麽的尷尬。所有高科技公司的中,高級主管都瞭解中國許多高端科技離世界上的先進國家還有一段距離。所有先進科學的執行主管都應該知道中國的下一步應該怎麽走。而所有中國的最高決策者都明瞭中國的弱點在那裏,他們也都知道控制中國的緊箍兒還在白宮的抽屜裏,而緊箍咒的錄音帶已經被美國複製了好多份,沒事就拿出來放一放,練習一下。

事實上,中國在成爲世界大國的道路上還有許多荊棘和阻礙,一路上還有許多地痞流氓躲在黑巷子裏,伺機就會倒砍中國一刀,阻止中國向前,防止中國佔領高科技產品的商機。這就是美國發動 417 事件真正的目的。

其實,美國如果真的要跟中國幹起來,中國一定會跟美國搞下去的。雖然中國賣給美國的東西遠比美國賣給中國的東西要多得多,不過中國還是有辦法讓 Trump 和美國人民的日子難過,進而影響美國期中選舉的結果。如果共和黨失去眾議院或參議院多數的領導地位,那 Trump 的苦日子就來了。如果 Trump 在 2019 被民主黨罷免,在 2020 就鞠躬下台,那他對美國,中國和世界的破壞也就能夠減少一點。

不過,我覺的這並不是當今最重要的議題。不管Trump 的關稅兵怎麼來,中國總會有關稅將去擋。不管 Trump 的貿易戰的禍水怎麼沖過來,中國有的是大力金剛土可以把它掩起來。這只是中美角力過程中的一個戰役。兩邊損兵折將在所難免,誰傷的重,誰傷的輕,誰死的多,誰死的少,最後誰輸誰贏,在兩國的競技中也不會有非常久遠的影響。

其實,對中國來說,現在最重要的議題是中國在這個尷尬的節骨眼上應該做的是什麼。

我覺得中國應該做的是:

1。全力抵制 Trump 的貿易戰。絕不低頭,絕不退縮,寧為玉碎,不為瓦全。對付 Trump 這種沒有原則的人,只有硬碰硬,不能給他任何好處。把孫子兵法三十六計全部搬上檯面,跟 Trump 拖到底,打到底,打到美國失業率增加,打到美國經濟開始蕭條,打到美國赤字飇漲,打到美國債臺高築付不起利息,打到美國無法招架,打到 Trump 被民主黨罷免,打到 Trump 下台鞠躬為止。中國特有的資本主義和經濟體系比美國自由市場模式的資本主義要來的容易控制。就是因為如此,中國應該比較能夠減少貿易戰對中國經濟的破壞。美國的貿易戰只不過是一台戲,骨子裏,美國要對付的是中國科技的崛起,減少中國對美國的威脅。不過,如果 Trump 今年期中選舉大獲全勝,那美國對中國和全世界的關稅和貿易戰就失去了它的意義,這個美國一定輸的貿易戰就會無疾而終。如果 Trump 在期中選舉一敗塗地,那這個貿易戰就不重要了。Trump 馬上要做的是想辦法應付 Maxine Watters 和即將來臨的 impleachment。他的白宮寶位都不保,他怎麽會去管關稅和貿易戰呢?

2。表面上,中國應該韜光養晦,謙虛,謹慎。私底下中國應該重整旗鼓,精益求精。檢討中國高科技的現況,找出中國精密科學的弱點,訂下一步一步,有系統的改進方案,按時檢討改進的成果。中國製造 2025 一定要繼續做下去,只有將中國的經濟有效的轉型,才能突破中產階級的瓶頸。2025 達不到目的沒有什麼關系。2026 達到目的地也可以。一時的挫折,用不著失望,也不用懊惱,更不要放棄。歷史的教訓還歷歷在目,清朝的軟弱無能,絕對不能重複。日本被美國和其它幾個國家無情的圍剿,也是中國抵抗美國的借鏡。

3。繼續從臺灣,新加坡和美國矽谷吸取有經驗,有抱負,有能力的半導體工作者來協助中國發展半導體基礎工業的研究與發展。鼓勵中國的大學生和大學畢業生進入半導體基本工業的領域,再配合國家的政策,預算和決心來突破半導體研究的瓶頸。定下協助美國學成的半導體工程師回國就業。中國有的是創業機會,有的是伸展抱負的空間。不需要留在美國爲美國出力還要面對沒完沒了的歧視。

4。直接或間接的告訴中國一千三百億的同胞,美國並不可怕,美國只不過是一個外強中乾的紙老虎。告訴中國人民,美國的弱點在那裏,美國的強項在那裏,美國的媒體有多大的影響力。告訴大家,只要中國人民聯合在一起,打擊美國的弱點,沒多久美國就會吃不消了。要知道民富則國富,民強則國強。美國人除了幾個住在東西兩岸的億萬富翁以外,其他的一般老百姓都是月光族的長期忠貞基本會員。這些人都是口袋裏有好幾張信用卡卻沒有幾個銅板的可憐人。別以為美國到處都是黃金,而且美國的人均 GDP 高的不得了。其實美國人均 GDP 是一個幻象,是美國的億萬富翁把它拉起來的,沒什麽大不了。美國人窮,入不敷出,根本沒有存款,還欠了一屁股債。美國人普遍的窮,請問,美國這個國家怎麼富的了。中國人只要每個人,每個月少買幾樣美國貨,持續幾個月下來,美國的問題就來了:失業率增加,經濟下滑,過沒多久,許多人就要靠政府的飯票吃飯了。

5。全力打開中國對美國以外國家和地區的雙邊貿易市場,平衡中國與美國和全世界的貿易關係。進一步,有條件的開放中國的工業讓外資加入。中國重要的精密工業,AI,航天工業,生物化工工業,自動化汽車,其他先進工業和銀行業不能完全開放給外資。股票市場,投资,一般民生工業,醫藥和保險業倒是可以考慮讓外資參加。

6。在此同時,加強管制中國的企業,確信 ZTE 417 事件不能再發生。所有大大小小公司的公信度必須提高。假賬必須停止,國家的監察機構必須加強管制,如有違規者,必將嚴懲。所有國有企業和私人跨國公司必須依照世界公認的標準來經營,用世界先進的管理制度來管理。

中國如果能夠痛定思痛的覺醒,進而日積月累的改進,不要氣餒,不能驕傲,虛心的接受這個打擊,一步步用心的去做,一點點努力的去發展,再加上國家提供正確的領導,儘可能在最短的時間內打破這個緊箍兒,躋身世界大國的領域,血洗 417 事件的恥辱。

短短的三十年前,日本的經濟在1980年代可以說如日中天,不可一世,對美國的出超已經達到危險的境界。許多美國的工業和工作機會逐漸成為 globalization 的犧牲品。幾個美國有名的 MBA 學府爭先恐後的來研究日本的管理模式,學習日本的經營方法,想要把”日本製造”搬到美國去。美國一方面感受到東亞小日本席捲全球的威脅,也害怕美國日漸式微的勞工市場。美國的智庫知道事態的嚴重性,想起 1942 年的珍珠港事件,他們知道美國必須要做點什麼來遏制這個囂張的日本。

1985年9月份的 Plaza Accord;廣場協議,就是美國送給日本的緊箍兒。美國就拿著這把尚方寶劍死勁的往日本的頭上砍下去。它也像美國從 Home Depot 買了一根六尺長的 2×4 ,先狠狠地打在日本左邊的太陽穴上,再回馬一槍打在日本右邊的太陽穴上。這兩棒打的日本頭冒金星,血冒三丈。當時日本還莫名其妙,免不了要問:區區這一張紙有什麽了不起,堂堂的日本大帝國什麼陣仗沒看過,怕什麽,簽就簽。

接下來,日幣大幅升值,日本瘋狂的漲了四年,然後就是 1989 年日本股市和房市崩盤,正式開始日本失落的三十年。到如今,日本年年入不敷出,債臺高築,日本國債已經達到日本 GDP 聞所未聞的 2.52 倍,離閻羅王的寶殿已經不遠了。

你看,現在的日本是不是啞巴吃黃蓮,有苦说不出呢?美國有沒有跟日本說聲一聲對不起嗎?當然沒有。這就是美國殺人不眨眼,厲害的地方。

2018年的 ZTE “417 事件” 就是美國爲中國定下來的”廣場協議”。雖然中國跟日本不一樣,417 事件也只限於中國一家公司,可是它瞄準的是中國的半導體工業。如果中國決策當局不好好的對付,它一樣會有很大的殺傷力。中國必須內省,必須警覺,必須突破,必須在美國的抵制之下給中國的半導體工業一個脫胎換骨,從浴火中重生的機會。

除了核心半導體的技術受美國控制以外,中國還有一些弱點,例如:不健全的中央,地方和公司債券市場;中央和地方債太高;人民幣國際化過程艱辛;股票市場動盪不安,難以控制;居高不下的房地產;南海問題和臺灣問題等等都是美國可以見縫插針的地方。此外,美國對伊朗和蘇俄的制裁很可能會連累到中國。中國以人民幣來計價石油的行為也是美國非常敏感的議題。美國在外交關係的領域裏有無數個智庫,有許多終生研究中美關係的研究員。他們言辭犀利,見解獨到,因為他們不是政府官員,講話也可以不負責任。這些人激進和敵對的觀點很可能會被 Trump 拿來做文章。中國的決策者不能不防。

中國必須加緊對美國國會參,眾議員的游説,讓他們對中國有好感,在政策上做對中國有利的決定。在美國的媒體上,中國也應該積極的參加政治議論節目,提出中國的觀點,增加這些節目觀眾對中國的瞭解,進而改變美國一般民眾對中國的看法和態度,減低美國人對中國的歧視和誤解。

總之,中國走向世界大國的路還很長,要把美國從世界霸權的地位擠下來並不容易,想要替代美國過去七十年建立的遊戲規則更不簡單。不但一路上都是荆棘,美國還在邊上虎視眈眈,伺機打擊中國。中國必須謹慎小心的應付美國的攻擊,循序漸進的把中國轉變成一個安康,謙虛,穩定,繁榮,開放和富強的大國。

我相信我可以看到這一天的到來的。

Anti Japanese sentiment in Australia 80 years ago July 5, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Congress, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Election, 蘇俄, Islam, Muslim, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Source: Flipboard

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http://flip.it/W8Fs-N

The sentiment against Japanes influence over Australia’s economy and its natural resources 80 years ago led to iron ore export embargo to Japan in the mid 1930’s. That seemingly inconsequential decision nonetheless played a roll in the ensuing Japanese invasion of China on July 7, 1937 (盧溝橋事變) and the attack on Pearl Harbor on December 8, 1942 (偷襲珍珠港) by the Japanese navy.

That kind of sentiment is happening against in the U.S. Now, the resentment is against China.

The transfer of world power from the U.S. to China is inevitable as America’s hegemony is crumbling in front of our eyes. The gradual demise of the United States of the America has been set in motion long before Trump occupied the White House. The conservative white people in the U.S. is making their last stand against this tsunami under Trump.

Unfortunately, Trump and his supportors are not just fighting against China’s growing influence in the world. They are fighting the liberals, the blacks, Latinos and the Muslims in the U.S. and Russia, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Yemen, Germany, France, European Union, Japan, Canada, Mexico, the Taliban, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in the world.

America saw the decline and became worried. It started to wage an all-out trade wars it has no chance of winning because this war can’t be won by guns, missiles and aircraft carriers. Tanks are useless in this war so are the F-35s. On the contrary, the trade wars will damage American’s economy and kill American jobs.

When the layoffs begin to surface and growth rate starts to take a hit, Americans will wake up to the devastating outcome Trump is leading them to. If they decide to show Republican legislators out of the door, it will be the end of Trump if Cohen and Mueller didn’t get him before November.

Can someone tell me what America’s naval exercise in the Pacific Ocean is good for? July 1, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, 蘇俄, Military, Russia, U.S. Foreign Policy, 中國.
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Other than wasting tax payers’ money.

Will the U.S. attack China or Russia one day?

No.

Will China or Russia attack America?

No.

And will the other 24 countries join the U.S. to bomb China and Russia too?

No .

So, why would the U.S. practice something that it won’t use any time soon.

吃飽飯,撐著,沒事做。

君子報仇十年不晚 June 15, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Congress, 特朗普, 美國, 習近平, Economics, Globlization, Trade, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Source: Bloomberg

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http://flip.it/YnRIaH

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I don’t know which side will come out ahead in this trade war between China and the U.S. but I believe the ongoing tech embargo against China will definitely put a dent on China’s “Made in China 2025” initiative. Don’t forget that ZTE’s fate, possibly Huawei’s too, is still in the hands of Trump and the U.S. Congress. It’s unfortunate that China doesn’t have anything equivalent to counter America’s punch.

However, this is not the whole story: The U.S. is not fighting a trade war with China alone. The U.S. is fighting with China, Japan, Russia, Iran, Koreas, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela and the EU, It’s not just China will retaliate, many other countries will retaliate too. All at the same time. Can Trump and America’s labor market take this assult from all sides at the same times?

I don’t think so.

A better question is: Can Trump states’ economies take the attacks before the November election?

The answer is: no.

The next logic question to ask is then: can Trump survive impeachment if Democrats take the House and the Senate in November after Trump’s trade war begins to inflict damages to the U.S. economy?

Definitely not.

As the excerpt below states, the current setback on China’s tech arms race against the U.S. isn’t all bad: there might be a silver lining for China after all.

Source: Bloomberg

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Chinese often say that “君子報仇十年不晚.” It means that “a gentleman will have his revenge in ten years.” Xi Jinping, of course, is very familiar with this concept when he deals with Trump and whoever comes after him. Trump is in the game for instant gratification and political payback. China is in it for the long haul and Xi Jinping knows it.

Well, China just got whacked by a 2×4. But, the curse could be a blessing in disguise. Chinese call this “轉機. 2025 is 7 years from now and the U.S. will do all it can to stop China from reaching this goal. But, China is no longer a 省油的燈. Even though the threat is very real and the enemy is formidable, China, with its steadfast resolve, a stable political system, the accumulation of wealth and the support of the Chinese people, will push ahead and work out a way to reach its goal in time. If it can’t be done in 7 years, China will do it by 2028 and has its revenge in 10 years if necessary.

想當然耳 May 31, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Global Affair, Military, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Russia, China agree to boost military cooperation against America’s aggression and hegemony.

http://flip.it/L-M.FA

Trade war: China vs. the U.S. May 21, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Military, Trade, Trump, 川普, 中國.
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https://theconversation.com/why-china-cant-meet-trumps-200-billion-trade-demand-96888

There are ways to reduce trade deficitsif you look hard enough:

  1. America can sell these to China and reduce trade deficits very quickly: F-35s, F-22s, MQ9 Reaper Drones, Black Knights, XM2010 sniper rifles, THAAD anti-ballistic missile defense systems and Ford class aircraft carriers.
  1. Alternatively, Trump can order American people stop buying products made in China. That will change the trade deficit to a trade surplu

Actually, an trade deficit of $357 billion isn’t such a big deal, it’s only ~2% of the U.S. economy. Besides, if it won’t for the deflation China exports to the U.S., American people will be a lot poorer than they are now.

On the other hand, with daily products more expensive to buy, American people may learn to live within their means and cut up a few credit cards in their purses or wallets.

That may not be a bad thing if American people learn some financial discipline for a change.

What a mess: the yoyo America can’t be trusted May 8, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Middle East, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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I told you about the yoyo America a few days ago and Trump’s decision to pull out of Iran nuclear deal is another good example of why America can’t be trusted.

Source: Fox News

Now what? Will Europen-based companies stay in Iran while only American companies get out of Iran? What about Russian and Chinese companies? Will the non-U.S. companies stay and fight against Trump’s sanctions?

Oil price should continue to go up because the market will add more geopolitical risk to the price of oil. If missiles continue to fly into Saudi Arabia in a big way, oil price will hit 3 digits easy.

Will American economy suffer from the consequence of Trump’s hostile foreign policy towards its enemies and allies alike?

What will an isolated America look like if German, England, France, China and Russia, the other five signators of the Iran nuclear deal, decide to keep the deal without the U.S.?

Where is Obama on this mess? Did he tweet anything? He has been awfully quiet on Trump’s actions which totally destroyed his presidency. The only thing left standing is Obama’s single payer health insurance deal but it is in complete shamble.

Poor Obama.

Over the past 450 days or so, Trump has bullied him to the ground and the neoconservatives have managed to write him off American’s history. And where is Obama now? It seems that he couldn’t utter a word of rejection against Trump.

China vs Trump April 23, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, jobs, Taiwan, Trade, Trump, 台灣, 川普, 中國.
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https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-china-trade-war-lose-by-jeffrey-frankel-2018-04

The author discusses reasons “why” China WON’T yeield to Trump’s trade war.

The key points of the article are:

  • Being the surplus country, China is in a stronger position over the U.S. because China has accumulated a stronger financial claims against America.
  • Tariffs will hurt America people more: U.S. companies will be forced to raise prices as input become more expensive.
  • Industries and consumers in China will suffer too but Chinese government, if it chooses to, can overrule interest groups and stifle protests more easily.
  • Public opinion in China will back retaliation against the U.S. because Chinese people remember well the Opium Wars, the Unequal Treaties and foreign invations in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Stand up against Trump will help overcome the legacy of China’s “century of humiliation” instigated by foreign countries including the U.S.
  • Trump’s flip-flop in matters big and small gives China little incentive to bother with making a deal with Trump.
  • China can offer Trump face saving way out of his trade war by exporting less to the U.S. directly while routing products through other countries where final assembly takes place, e.g., Taiwan.
  • Moves like this will satify Trump’s demand to reduce bilateral merchandise trade deficit but will not improve America’s external balance, output, trade deficits, employment or real wages.
  • No amount of Trump’s gleeful photo ops, self-congratulatory tweets, or triumphant Fox News reports will change that.
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