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走投無路只有濫竽充數了? November 14, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Computer, Congress, 美國, Democracy, Economics, Islam, Middle East, Military, Obama, Politics, Taiwan, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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看來美國的募兵制已經走到盡頭了。兵不夠,烏七八糟的人都只有收下了。

大部分的美國大兵參軍,不是因為他要保護美國的國家利益,不是因為他要保護美國自由民主的理想或是要保護美國的領土完整,他們這些人參軍,是因為他們沒有辦法在社會上生存,去當兵至少還有一口飯吃吃。

美國只要是經濟不好,失業率高,募兵就沒有問題。這些人找不到事,就只有參加軍隊,混一口飯吃。如果經濟好,市場上需要勞工,就募不到兵。現在就是經濟好,找不到新兵的時候。

不過,美國在中東的兩次戰爭,也把美國的年輕人打怕了。布希,噢巴馬和川普相繼的送他們去阿富汗,伊拉克,敘利亞和 Niger,可是他們不知道為什麼打仗,不知道為什麼去死,不知道為誰的利益而戰。有些人在阿富汗打了十幾年的戰,還不知道是為了美國人打還是為了阿富汗人打。

你說,這是不是有點荒唐?不過,這就是美國的外交政策。七八十年了,都是這樣。

嗯,好像台灣也有這種找不到兵的問題。不過,台灣有點不一樣。台灣現在是徵兵制。只要男生一到十八歲,就要當兵。如今,兵有沒有什麼好當的。打中國打不過,要那麽多兵幹什麼?所以台灣現在當兵,可以去政府機關坐辦公桌,朝九晚五的,幾個月就可以了。還有,台灣要武器,買不起。想要買,美國又不買。台灣的年輕人小確幸過的遐逸的很,週末吃個海鮮吃到飽,放長假去日本關西走兩天,要他們出去曬曬太陽,做個勞力工都不願意,怎麼會去當兵呢?再說,政府給當兵的錢不夠,多給政府又沒錢,你說這不是兩難嗎?

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BBC观点:奋发有为Vs保守孤立—中美关系会进入对抗期吗? November 6, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Obama, One Belt One Road, Politics, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, Xi Jinping, 川普, 民主, 一帶一路, 中國.
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http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-41840897

不論美國的川普刷什麽把戲,中國一定能兵來將擋,水來土淹。再說,中國和美國的情形有天壤之別,如今的中國已經不可同日而語了:

  • 絕大部分的中國內部團結一致;絕大部分的美國有無數的派系鬥爭,社會混亂,國家分崩離析。
  • 中國除了台灣在一邊夜郎自大,坐井觀天之外並沒有其他特別嚴重的內憂;美國不但有內憂,還有 clear and present danger:1) 白人警察和黑人敵對之勢越演越烈,2) 黑人公開反對政府但是政府沒有任何作為,3) 國外和國內的穆斯林激進份子打擊美國,伺機而動,防不勝防,4) 一千多萬非法移民(墨西哥人等等)東躲西藏,怨聲載道5) 白人至上主義圖謀不軌和自由派鬥爭不停,6) 槍殺案層出不窮,大規模殺人事件隨時可能發生,警察窮於應付。
  • 習近平打貪防腐頗有成效,治理國家也中規中矩,一帶一路乃跨世紀的計劃,對提高中國在世界上的地位不遺餘力,習近平高瞻遠矚和跨時代的思想被寫入黨章;川普,川普兒子,他的女婿和幾位親信被聯邦特別檢察官調查,一路追殺,猶如喪家之犬,非常可憐。川普親信已經被聯邦特別檢察官起訴,一位外交政策助理已經認罪。
  • 習近平在十九大之前清除異己,鞏固自己的權力;川普仰賴沒有經驗的家屬和華爾街億萬富翁治理國事,如今一事無成。
  • 中國致力於基礎科學研究,國力日漸強大,欣欣向榮;美國欠債磊磊,赤字飇漲,苦苦掙扎。
  • 中國國富民安;美國險像叢生。
  • 中國一黨專政,高瞻遠矚,為國為民,勵精圖治;美國兩黨奪權,爲了四年連任無所不用其極,如今一事無成,實乃民主危機。
  • 中國做事效率顯著;美國民主礙手礙腳。
  • 中國有大國風範;美國卻閉關自守。
  • 中國金援外邦,協助他國基礎建設;美國對外用兵,發射飛彈轟炸他人。

      你說川普來中國朝拜,在氣勢上是不是已經輸了一節?

      Source: 多維新聞

      川普金玉其外,敗絮其中,不可一世,目中無人,夜郎自大,不切實際。他的所作所為,做小了美國總統的位子,也將成為千古之笑柄也。

      China or the U.S.? October 19, 2017

      Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Globlization, 中國.
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      We are talking about the largest economy in the world here. And the answer, according to Noah Smith, is China.

      https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/articles/2017-10-18/who-has-the-world-s-no-1-economy-not-the-u-s#ampshare=https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-18/who-has-the-world-s-no-1-economy-not-the-u-s

      I started talking about the downfall of the U.S. in 2009. Finally, some one agreed with me eight years later.

      What’s even more surprising to me is this: Noah Smith believes that China will eventually come out on top if these two countries engage in a conventional war. He cites China’s advantages in population and manufacture prowess.

      I am glad that I get to see this happening in my life time. 中國, The Midfle Kingdom, has come back to glory from the humiliation it suffered after 甲午戰爭, the First Sino-Japanese War, and the signing of 馬關條約, Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895.

      Source: The wikipedia

      Source: The wikipedia

      Well, 甲午戰爭 and 馬關條約 are history now and, finally, a brand new chapter in 中國近代史 has begun with China’s 十九大, the 19th Communist Party congress, and its 十三五, China’s 13th Five-Year Plan.

      While Trump is writing a $25,000 check from his personal account to the father of a dead soldier and arguing with a Democratic Congresswoman about what Trump said to another dead soldier’s family, China is walking its own path and carrying out its expansion plans systematically.

      Yeah, let Trump tweets and pisses off at everyone who disgrees with him, McCain, Tillerson, Muller, McConnell, Schumer, CNN, NBC, NFL players and many others, the family feud makes good drama for the world to enjoy. 

      Source: Fox News

      Source: The Daily Mail.

      Source: The Daily Mail.

      I am not complaining at all. It’s entertsining and fun to see when the s**** hits the fan.

      What’s the benefit to U.S? October 6, 2017

      Posted by hslu in Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Oil, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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      Other than tearing apart yet another work done by Obama, “de-certify” Iran nuclear deal, known as JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, will not bring any discernible benefit to the U.S. 

      It will make Trump the odd man out on the world stage. Again. It will make American economic sanctions less effective this time around without the backing of other five countries which signed the JCPOA. It will not bring Iran any closer to comply with the regulations of the JCPOA either. And it will further isolate America from the rest of the world.

      It will, however, fulfill one of Trump’s campaign promises though. 

      But, what can Trump or Congress do to prevent Iran from eventually becoming a nation with nuclear weapons?

      Not much.

      Inspections slowed down the progress of Iran’s nuclearization. American sanctions choked off Iran’s economic development, made Iranians suffer over the years but didn’t stop Iran from gaining necessary hardware and know-how to develop nuclear weapons since Iran’s Islamic revoluion in 1979.

      So, what drives Trump do it and push the hot potato to the arms of the Congress? There are several possible reasons:

      1. Trump can wash his hands clean and check it off from the list of things he had promised to do before taking the WH? 
      2. Trump believes Iran will fall in line and negotiate a new deal with the U.S. when threatened by Trump.
      3. America wants to punish Iran because Iran has been accepting Renminbi, instead of U.S. dollar, for millions of barrels of Iranian crudes it has exported to China. This is a “big no-no” because it threatens one of the pillars of American hegemony in the world.
      4. Trump intends to take on China indirectly using Iran as a promixy. By imposing new sanctions on Iran, America can impose restrictions on Chinese banks and Chinese companies if they continue to do business with Iran thus slowing down the transformation from petro-dollar to petro-renminbi.
      5. Trump is the kind of person who “唯恐天下不亂”。He wants all the attentions in the world so that he medses up things in the world as much as he can.

      What a “怪胎”!

      Can you think of a better term to describe Trump the person?

      Mr. Tillerson, you can’t quit now. October 4, 2017

      Posted by hslu in Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Japan, Military, Russia, Trump.
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      Mr. Tillerson was ExxonMobil’s CEO before taking the job of Secretary of State for Trump.

      For the past eight and half months, Mr. Tillerson tried very, very hard, like Trump would say, to do his job but was roundly undercut by his boss every step of the way from the very beginning. 

      Most recently, Mr. Tillerson opened a direct communication channel with North Korea so that the situation on Korean Peninsula can be resolved diplomatically.

      But Trump asked Tillerson to stop talking to North Korea and said that he’ll take care of the ‘little rocket man.’ 

      He then fired out another tweet which went like this:

      So, what did Trump mean with his second tweet? 

      It was obvious to me that Trump meant taking out Kim Jong En by force.

      It means war against North Korea.

      With Trump’s second tweet, it seems, that there are several possible outcomes: 

      1. Trump orders, with Pentagon’s support and agreements from Tillerson and security advisors, a pre-emptive attack by American forces to disable Kim Jong En’s killing machine and prevent any loss of lives of south  Korean anf Japanese people. 

      2. Kim Jong En surrenders under the threat of Trump’s tweets and gives up his nuclear ambition. 

      3. A nuclear war started by Kim Jong En and retaliated by Trump.

      4. Trump backs down like many of his previous Twitter threats and loses his and American’s credibility again.

      The first option won’t work and Trump knows it. Trump can’t neutralize North Korean’s military apparatus fast enough before millions of South Koreans, Americans and Japanese people die from Kim Jong En’s attacks. South Korean military isn’t likely to agree with this option. Japan will have doubts too because it won’t succeed.

      The second option won’t happen because Kim Jong En can’t stop developing his nuclear weapons. Without the threat of nuclear weapons, Kim Jong En, like Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi before him, will die in the hands of America. Millions of North Korean people will die and America will control the entire Korean Peninsula. South Korea will be a puppet of the USA. China can’t let this happen and will step in with the troops it has at the border. Russia can stand idle either. 

      If Pentagon, Tillerson and Congress agree with Trump, option 3 will be the most likely outcome. But I don’t believe Kim Jong En will start the fight first.

      If Tillerson and Pentagon doesn’t agree with Trump, Trump has no option but eats his own tweets like he has already done so many times before. This is the 4th option. Congress won’t allow it to happen either. 

      Do you see another option? 

      There isn’t one.

      So, please, Mr. Tillerson, for the sake of the humanity, hangs in there and, if necessary, beats some senses out of that dotard with a 2 by 4 if necessary. We need a few adults.in the WH because Trump is out of his mind.

      Since we are talking about nuclear weapons here, did America voice any objection when India and Pakistan were developing their nuclear weapon technologies? Did America say anything about Israel’s nuclear missiles? 

      North Korea will eventually have nuclear weapons and Iran will eventually have nuclear weapons. Why? For their own national interests.

      And which country was the first and only one which had used a nuclear weapon on another country?

      And which country has thousands of nuclear armed missiles ready to be used on its enemies for the sake of its national interests?

      And which country has invaded and bombed other countries in the name of its national security?

      Mr. Tillerson, I know Trump is waiting for 
      you to quit so that he doesn’t have to fire you. I know Nikki Haley wants you to step down because Trump likes her and will make her your replacement. Haley is just a mouth piece for Trump. Nothing more. Nothing less. She wants your job so she talks tough to get Trump’s notice.

        So, Mr. Tillerson, you see, you can’t resign. The world peace is in your hands.

        Military options against North Korea won’t work August 31, 2017

        Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Military, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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        North Korea: What are the military options? – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41095772

        Trump’s red line turned to green August 30, 2017

        Posted by hslu in Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Politics, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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        http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/29/analysis-is-north-korea-winning-deterrence-war-with-us.html

        Trump’s big and scary “Red Line” has been drawn by his tweets and words:

        • We are sending an armada, very powerful.
        • U.S. military “Fully in place”
        • “Locked and loaded”
        • “Fire and fury.”
        • “Power like the world has never seen before”

        But, Kim Jong Un’s huge “eraser” has been fortified with missiles, more missiles, ICBM’s and nuclear tests. Kim hasn’t sent out any tweets, which is a good thing, but Kim had TV announcers did the bashing against the U.S. for him.

        Then Trump had a change of heart and took the tine off to praise Kim in another tweet:

        “Kim Jong Un of North Korea made a very wise and well seasoned decision.”

        With that, the color of Trump’s red line magically changed color turned “green.”

        So. What did Kim do to response for Trump’s grsture?? 

        He promptly shot another missile over Japan to tell Trump that he didn’t give a damn of what Trump thought.

        Then, predictalbly, came Trump’s tweet:

        • All options are on the table.

        Apparently Trump wanted to change the color of his “line in the sand” back to red againt. 

        Words without action to follow through are just words. 

        To North Korean’s Kim, they mean nothing at all.

        16 more years or $3 trillion spent August 22, 2017

        Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Muslim, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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        The U.S. has been fighting against some people in Afghanistan for 16 yesrs.

        Trump has said that there will be no timetable to withdraw American GI’s and they will be there for as long it’s necessary.

        So will America be out of Afghanistan 16 years from now?

        Since time will no longer be the deciding factor to pull American troops out from Afghanistan, may be it is wise to set a dollar limit instead. America should begin pull its troops out as spending on Afghanistan reaches $1.5 trillion. The pace should increase as spending passes $2 trillion. When the cost of Afghanistan war reaches $3 trillion, all American soldier should be out of that country forever. 

        However, let’s not forget that another reason America is in Afghanistan is that a military presence in that region is part of America’s “Pivot to Asia” strategy designed to contain China. Its military installation there also serves as a monitoring post on Russia as well.

        As to the “nation building” business in Afghanistan, as long as greenbacks continues to flows into that country, its nation is being built by American tax dollar no matter how Trump denies it.

        2nd Korean war July 31, 2017

        Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Japan, Military, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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        Source: BBC News

        Is it a S. Korean problem?

        No doubt about it. 

        Instead of raining cats and dogs, DMZ, Seoul and a big chunk of S. Korea will see bombs of all sorts raining down from the sky before the U.S. can surgically nuetralize threats from N. Korea missile sites. There might be nuclear, bio and chemical varieties.

        S. Koreans won’t like Trump’s call for actions either because millions of S. Koreans have relatives in the north. They don’t want to see them die from American bombs. 
        Will S. Korea invade the North without U. S. participation? 

        No.

        Will S. Korean soldiers kill N. Korean soldiers and vice versa?

        No, if they have a say. They are all Koreans after all.

        So, let me get this straight:

        After Trump tweets out the order to bomb the hell out of N. Korea, it is the Koreans who will suffer the most and it is the Koreas which will endure the most damages. 

        It isn’t a good picture and it doesn’t make any sense for Mr. Moon at all.

        Is it a problem for Japan?

        Definitely. Japan had twice occupied Korea in the past, slaughtered many Koreans and ruled Korean people for centuries. For that, Koreans hate Japan and that’s why N. Korea wants nothing less than total revenge against Japan if a war breaks out between the U.S. and N. Korea. 

        Then there is the issue of Japan denying the roles of comfort women during WWII. 

        Once war breaks out, N. Korea will try to do all it can to inflict damages to Japan and its people one way or the other. 

        Is it a problen for Russia?

        Nope. There might be nuclear fall outs in Russia if nukes start to fly. Russia will contunue to supply all the weapons N. Korea wants and provide intelligence data which N. Korea needs to fight the war.

        Putin should benefit the most from the war between the U.S.A. and N. Korea.

        Is it a problem for China?

        To some degree. China may see thousands of N. Korean migrants crossing over the Yalu River if Trump decides to bomb N. Korea. Nuclear fall outs in China can’t be dismissed either. 

        But, N. Korea will not invade China and it will not send missiles to the direction of China either. It is annoying to China because of all the tweets from Trump but the war isn’t a problem for China per se.

        In the end, China will stand behind N. Korea in spirit but will not fight for the country like it did in the first Korean war. If N. Korea requests weapons, China will provide them so that Kim’s regime can defend itself.

        After the war, China will offer N. Korea interest free loans and help N. Korea re-build. China’s excess capacity gets new orders and N. Korea gets new factories, new roads and new railroads. It’s a win win situation.

        Is it a problem for the U.S.?

        Yes. 50+K American soldiers in DMZ and Camp Humphreys will be in harms way. Nukes, bio and chemical bombs could come down on them. Andrews AFB will become a busy place. Body bag makers will see a rush of new orders. Bomb makers will work overtime to re-stock the pile. U.S. economy gets a small boost. 

        American ship and carriers in the vicinity of Korea and Japan and other regions in the Pacific Ocean may face threats from N. Korean subs even though these subs are old and out dated. 

        American soil will be spared just like all world wars in the past. But, N. Korean spies will try to cause damages to American assets in the world. 

        Can America do a surgical attack on N. Korean targets just to give Kim a warning?

        No. 

        The U.S. won’t. It has to do a “shock and awe” job in the beginning to eliminate major threats from the N. Korea. 

        To do that, America has to amass a large number of fighter planes before bombing starts. If America wants to invade N. Korea either with S. Korean troops (preferred by America, of course,) or American soldiers, they need to move soldiers to the DMZ. That will give N. Korea ample chance to strike the first blow to American soldiers and South Korean urban centers. It can get pretty ugly very fast.
        Is it a problem for North Korea?

        Certainly. Millions of N. Korean soldiers and civilians will die if the 2nd Korean War drags on. Infrastructure in N. Korea will for sure be damaged.

        Will Kim die? Probably not. He’ll be hidding in the bunker which can stand direct hits from Mother of all bombs. 

        Will Kim be captured? Not likely unless America sends in foot soldiers into Pyongyang to mop up the floor clean after devastating N. Korea.

        Whose war is it anyway?

        So, is Kim more of a problem for S. Korean people or is it a problem for Trump and America?

        The answer is clearly the latter. Koreans don’t want a war. Moon want a dialog with Kim and it is Trump and American generals who are more eager to start a war between two Koreas. 

        So, why is Trump so eager to stir up the pot? Because Trump is in trouble at home with low voters approval ratings and Mueller. The real reason for Trump’s N. Korea tweets is that by kicking the N. Korea conflict up a notch it might divert media’s attention away from Russian investigation. 

        A bigger question

        Shouldn’t S. Koreans have more to say about a war between the two Koreas instead of Trump?

        Moon should make it very clear to Trump on this important point unless Trump is sending American soldiers into the North too.

        A Black Swam from the Korean peninsula?

        So, is the 2nd Korean war a “black swan” event for the world financial markets to worry about?

        Not by the action of three major indices. All three are either at or near all time highs. 

        The only logical conclusion one can make is that despite all the tweets from Trump, the 2nd Korean war won’t happen.

        BBC News: The end of the Anglo-American order? July 6, 2017

        Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Energy, Global Affair, Globlization, Middle East, Oil, Shanghai, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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        I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:

        The end of the Anglo-American order? – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40227270

        With China being the largest crude oil importer in the world, with Renminbi being accepted by central banks as a reserve currency and with Saudi Arabia and some OPEC countries don’t like what America is doing in the Middle East, is it likely that we will soon see crude oil being traded at Renminbi instead of the U.S. dollar? 

        Of course I am not talking about all oil trades will be settled on Renminbi but what about bi-lateral oil trades between Saudi and China and Nigeria and China. You know which side Rusdia stands on this. 

        The Renminbi bilateral swap lines between China and 33 (wiki data) other countries will be replaced with a new trading platform next year. In the past, these swaps were cleared by SWIFT which is under America’s influence. The new platform will be under China’s control and will be located in Shanghai away from SWIFT.

        The world order is fast changing in front of our eyes if you care to look.

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