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China or the U.S.? October 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Globlization, 中國.
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We are talking about the largest economy in the world here. And the answer, according to Noah Smith, is China.

https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/articles/2017-10-18/who-has-the-world-s-no-1-economy-not-the-u-s#ampshare=https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-18/who-has-the-world-s-no-1-economy-not-the-u-s

I started talking about the downfall of the U.S. in 2009. Finally, some one agreed with me eight years later.

What’s even more surprising to me is this: Noah Smith believes that China will eventually come out on top if these two countries engage in a conventional war. He cites China’s advantages in population and manufacture prowess.

I am glad that I get to see this happening in my life time. 中國, The Midfle Kingdom, has come back to glory from the humiliation it suffered after 甲午戰爭, the First Sino-Japanese War, and the signing of 馬關條約, Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895.

Source: The wikipedia

Source: The wikipedia

Well, 甲午戰爭 and 馬關條約 are history now and, finally, a brand new chapter in 中國近代史 has begun with China’s 十九大, the 19th Communist Party congress, and its 十三五, China’s 13th Five-Year Plan.

While Trump is writing a $25,000 check from his personal account to the father of a dead soldier and arguing with a Democratic Congresswoman about what Trump said to another dead soldier’s family, China is walking its own path and carrying out its expansion plans systematically.

Yeah, let Trump tweets and pisses off at everyone who disgrees with him, McCain, Tillerson, Muller, McConnell, Schumer, CNN, NBC, NFL players and many others, the family feud makes good drama for the world to enjoy. 

Source: Fox News

Source: The Daily Mail.

Source: The Daily Mail.

I am not complaining at all. It’s entertsining and fun to see when the s**** hits the fan.

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What’s the benefit to U.S? October 6, 2017

Posted by hslu in Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Oil, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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Other than tearing apart yet another work done by Obama, “de-certify” Iran nuclear deal, known as JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, will not bring any discernible benefit to the U.S. 

It will make Trump the odd man out on the world stage. Again. It will make American economic sanctions less effective this time around without the backing of other five countries which signed the JCPOA. It will not bring Iran any closer to comply with the regulations of the JCPOA either. And it will further isolate America from the rest of the world.

It will, however, fulfill one of Trump’s campaign promises though. 

But, what can Trump or Congress do to prevent Iran from eventually becoming a nation with nuclear weapons?

Not much.

Inspections slowed down the progress of Iran’s nuclearization. American sanctions choked off Iran’s economic development, made Iranians suffer over the years but didn’t stop Iran from gaining necessary hardware and know-how to develop nuclear weapons since Iran’s Islamic revoluion in 1979.

So, what drives Trump do it and push the hot potato to the arms of the Congress? There are several possible reasons:

  1. Trump can wash his hands clean and check it off from the list of things he had promised to do before taking the WH? 
  2. Trump believes Iran will fall in line and negotiate a new deal with the U.S. when threatened by Trump.
  3. America wants to punish Iran because Iran has been accepting Renminbi, instead of U.S. dollar, for millions of barrels of Iranian crudes it has exported to China. This is a “big no-no” because it threatens one of the pillars of American hegemony in the world.
  4. Trump intends to take on China indirectly using Iran as a promixy. By imposing new sanctions on Iran, America can impose restrictions on Chinese banks and Chinese companies if they continue to do business with Iran thus slowing down the transformation from petro-dollar to petro-renminbi.
  5. Trump is the kind of person who “唯恐天下不亂”。He wants all the attentions in the world so that he medses up things in the world as much as he can.

What a “怪胎”!

Can you think of a better term to describe Trump the person?

Mr. Tillerson, you can’t quit now. October 4, 2017

Posted by hslu in Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Japan, Military, Russia, Trump.
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Mr. Tillerson was ExxonMobil’s CEO before taking the job of Secretary of State for Trump.

For the past eight and half months, Mr. Tillerson tried very, very hard, like Trump would say, to do his job but was roundly undercut by his boss every step of the way from the very beginning. 

Most recently, Mr. Tillerson opened a direct communication channel with North Korea so that the situation on Korean Peninsula can be resolved diplomatically.

But Trump asked Tillerson to stop talking to North Korea and said that he’ll take care of the ‘little rocket man.’ 

He then fired out another tweet which went like this:

So, what did Trump mean with his second tweet? 

It was obvious to me that Trump meant taking out Kim Jong En by force.

It means war against North Korea.

With Trump’s second tweet, it seems, that there are several possible outcomes: 

1. Trump orders, with Pentagon’s support and agreements from Tillerson and security advisors, a pre-emptive attack by American forces to disable Kim Jong En’s killing machine and prevent any loss of lives of south  Korean anf Japanese people. 

2. Kim Jong En surrenders under the threat of Trump’s tweets and gives up his nuclear ambition. 

3. A nuclear war started by Kim Jong En and retaliated by Trump.

4. Trump backs down like many of his previous Twitter threats and loses his and American’s credibility again.

The first option won’t work and Trump knows it. Trump can’t neutralize North Korean’s military apparatus fast enough before millions of South Koreans, Americans and Japanese people die from Kim Jong En’s attacks. South Korean military isn’t likely to agree with this option. Japan will have doubts too because it won’t succeed.

The second option won’t happen because Kim Jong En can’t stop developing his nuclear weapons. Without the threat of nuclear weapons, Kim Jong En, like Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi before him, will die in the hands of America. Millions of North Korean people will die and America will control the entire Korean Peninsula. South Korea will be a puppet of the USA. China can’t let this happen and will step in with the troops it has at the border. Russia can stand idle either. 

If Pentagon, Tillerson and Congress agree with Trump, option 3 will be the most likely outcome. But I don’t believe Kim Jong En will start the fight first.

If Tillerson and Pentagon doesn’t agree with Trump, Trump has no option but eats his own tweets like he has already done so many times before. This is the 4th option. Congress won’t allow it to happen either. 

Do you see another option? 

There isn’t one.

So, please, Mr. Tillerson, for the sake of the humanity, hangs in there and, if necessary, beats some senses out of that dotard with a 2 by 4 if necessary. We need a few adults.in the WH because Trump is out of his mind.

Since we are talking about nuclear weapons here, did America voice any objection when India and Pakistan were developing their nuclear weapon technologies? Did America say anything about Israel’s nuclear missiles? 

North Korea will eventually have nuclear weapons and Iran will eventually have nuclear weapons. Why? For their own national interests.

And which country was the first and only one which had used a nuclear weapon on another country?

And which country has thousands of nuclear armed missiles ready to be used on its enemies for the sake of its national interests?

And which country has invaded and bombed other countries in the name of its national security?

Mr. Tillerson, I know Trump is waiting for 
you to quit so that he doesn’t have to fire you. I know Nikki Haley wants you to step down because Trump likes her and will make her your replacement. Haley is just a mouth piece for Trump. Nothing more. Nothing less. She wants your job so she talks tough to get Trump’s notice.

    So, Mr. Tillerson, you see, you can’t resign. The world peace is in your hands.

    Military options against North Korea won’t work August 31, 2017

    Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Military, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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    North Korea: What are the military options? – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41095772

    Trump’s red line turned to green August 30, 2017

    Posted by hslu in Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Politics, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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    http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/29/analysis-is-north-korea-winning-deterrence-war-with-us.html

    Trump’s big and scary “Red Line” has been drawn by his tweets and words:

    • We are sending an armada, very powerful.
    • U.S. military “Fully in place”
    • “Locked and loaded”
    • “Fire and fury.”
    • “Power like the world has never seen before”

    But, Kim Jong Un’s huge “eraser” has been fortified with missiles, more missiles, ICBM’s and nuclear tests. Kim hasn’t sent out any tweets, which is a good thing, but Kim had TV announcers did the bashing against the U.S. for him.

    Then Trump had a change of heart and took the tine off to praise Kim in another tweet:

    “Kim Jong Un of North Korea made a very wise and well seasoned decision.”

    With that, the color of Trump’s red line magically changed color turned “green.”

    So. What did Kim do to response for Trump’s grsture?? 

    He promptly shot another missile over Japan to tell Trump that he didn’t give a damn of what Trump thought.

    Then, predictalbly, came Trump’s tweet:

    • All options are on the table.

    Apparently Trump wanted to change the color of his “line in the sand” back to red againt. 

    Words without action to follow through are just words. 

    To North Korean’s Kim, they mean nothing at all.

    16 more years or $3 trillion spent August 22, 2017

    Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Muslim, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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    The U.S. has been fighting against some people in Afghanistan for 16 yesrs.

    Trump has said that there will be no timetable to withdraw American GI’s and they will be there for as long it’s necessary.

    So will America be out of Afghanistan 16 years from now?

    Since time will no longer be the deciding factor to pull American troops out from Afghanistan, may be it is wise to set a dollar limit instead. America should begin pull its troops out as spending on Afghanistan reaches $1.5 trillion. The pace should increase as spending passes $2 trillion. When the cost of Afghanistan war reaches $3 trillion, all American soldier should be out of that country forever. 

    However, let’s not forget that another reason America is in Afghanistan is that a military presence in that region is part of America’s “Pivot to Asia” strategy designed to contain China. Its military installation there also serves as a monitoring post on Russia as well.

    As to the “nation building” business in Afghanistan, as long as greenbacks continues to flows into that country, its nation is being built by American tax dollar no matter how Trump denies it.

    2nd Korean war July 31, 2017

    Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Japan, Military, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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    Source: BBC News

    Is it a S. Korean problem?

    No doubt about it. 

    Instead of raining cats and dogs, DMZ, Seoul and a big chunk of S. Korea will see bombs of all sorts raining down from the sky before the U.S. can surgically nuetralize threats from N. Korea missile sites. There might be nuclear, bio and chemical varieties.

    S. Koreans won’t like Trump’s call for actions either because millions of S. Koreans have relatives in the north. They don’t want to see them die from American bombs. 
    Will S. Korea invade the North without U. S. participation? 

    No.

    Will S. Korean soldiers kill N. Korean soldiers and vice versa?

    No, if they have a say. They are all Koreans after all.

    So, let me get this straight:

    After Trump tweets out the order to bomb the hell out of N. Korea, it is the Koreans who will suffer the most and it is the Koreas which will endure the most damages. 

    It isn’t a good picture and it doesn’t make any sense for Mr. Moon at all.

    Is it a problem for Japan?

    Definitely. Japan had twice occupied Korea in the past, slaughtered many Koreans and ruled Korean people for centuries. For that, Koreans hate Japan and that’s why N. Korea wants nothing less than total revenge against Japan if a war breaks out between the U.S. and N. Korea. 

    Then there is the issue of Japan denying the roles of comfort women during WWII. 

    Once war breaks out, N. Korea will try to do all it can to inflict damages to Japan and its people one way or the other. 

    Is it a problen for Russia?

    Nope. There might be nuclear fall outs in Russia if nukes start to fly. Russia will contunue to supply all the weapons N. Korea wants and provide intelligence data which N. Korea needs to fight the war.

    Putin should benefit the most from the war between the U.S.A. and N. Korea.

    Is it a problem for China?

    To some degree. China may see thousands of N. Korean migrants crossing over the Yalu River if Trump decides to bomb N. Korea. Nuclear fall outs in China can’t be dismissed either. 

    But, N. Korea will not invade China and it will not send missiles to the direction of China either. It is annoying to China because of all the tweets from Trump but the war isn’t a problem for China per se.

    In the end, China will stand behind N. Korea in spirit but will not fight for the country like it did in the first Korean war. If N. Korea requests weapons, China will provide them so that Kim’s regime can defend itself.

    After the war, China will offer N. Korea interest free loans and help N. Korea re-build. China’s excess capacity gets new orders and N. Korea gets new factories, new roads and new railroads. It’s a win win situation.

    Is it a problem for the U.S.?

    Yes. 50+K American soldiers in DMZ and Camp Humphreys will be in harms way. Nukes, bio and chemical bombs could come down on them. Andrews AFB will become a busy place. Body bag makers will see a rush of new orders. Bomb makers will work overtime to re-stock the pile. U.S. economy gets a small boost. 

    American ship and carriers in the vicinity of Korea and Japan and other regions in the Pacific Ocean may face threats from N. Korean subs even though these subs are old and out dated. 

    American soil will be spared just like all world wars in the past. But, N. Korean spies will try to cause damages to American assets in the world. 

    Can America do a surgical attack on N. Korean targets just to give Kim a warning?

    No. 

    The U.S. won’t. It has to do a “shock and awe” job in the beginning to eliminate major threats from the N. Korea. 

    To do that, America has to amass a large number of fighter planes before bombing starts. If America wants to invade N. Korea either with S. Korean troops (preferred by America, of course,) or American soldiers, they need to move soldiers to the DMZ. That will give N. Korea ample chance to strike the first blow to American soldiers and South Korean urban centers. It can get pretty ugly very fast.
    Is it a problem for North Korea?

    Certainly. Millions of N. Korean soldiers and civilians will die if the 2nd Korean War drags on. Infrastructure in N. Korea will for sure be damaged.

    Will Kim die? Probably not. He’ll be hidding in the bunker which can stand direct hits from Mother of all bombs. 

    Will Kim be captured? Not likely unless America sends in foot soldiers into Pyongyang to mop up the floor clean after devastating N. Korea.

    Whose war is it anyway?

    So, is Kim more of a problem for S. Korean people or is it a problem for Trump and America?

    The answer is clearly the latter. Koreans don’t want a war. Moon want a dialog with Kim and it is Trump and American generals who are more eager to start a war between two Koreas. 

    So, why is Trump so eager to stir up the pot? Because Trump is in trouble at home with low voters approval ratings and Mueller. The real reason for Trump’s N. Korea tweets is that by kicking the N. Korea conflict up a notch it might divert media’s attention away from Russian investigation. 

    A bigger question

    Shouldn’t S. Koreans have more to say about a war between the two Koreas instead of Trump?

    Moon should make it very clear to Trump on this important point unless Trump is sending American soldiers into the North too.

    A Black Swam from the Korean peninsula?

    So, is the 2nd Korean war a “black swan” event for the world financial markets to worry about?

    Not by the action of three major indices. All three are either at or near all time highs. 

    The only logical conclusion one can make is that despite all the tweets from Trump, the 2nd Korean war won’t happen.

    BBC News: The end of the Anglo-American order? July 6, 2017

    Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Energy, Global Affair, Globlization, Middle East, Oil, Shanghai, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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    I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:

    The end of the Anglo-American order? – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40227270

    With China being the largest crude oil importer in the world, with Renminbi being accepted by central banks as a reserve currency and with Saudi Arabia and some OPEC countries don’t like what America is doing in the Middle East, is it likely that we will soon see crude oil being traded at Renminbi instead of the U.S. dollar? 

    Of course I am not talking about all oil trades will be settled on Renminbi but what about bi-lateral oil trades between Saudi and China and Nigeria and China. You know which side Rusdia stands on this. 

    The Renminbi bilateral swap lines between China and 33 (wiki data) other countries will be replaced with a new trading platform next year. In the past, these swaps were cleared by SWIFT which is under America’s influence. The new platform will be under China’s control and will be located in Shanghai away from SWIFT.

    The world order is fast changing in front of our eyes if you care to look.

    Will South Korea’s Moon reshape its military relations with US? July 6, 2017

    Posted by hslu in Cold War, Global Affair, Military, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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    http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Moon-reshaping-South-Korea-s-military-relations-with-US?page=2

    I didn’t know until now that South Korea doesn’t have control of its own military at time of military conflict.

    Totally inconceivable.

    With a nominal GDP of almost $1.5 trillion (ppp ~$2 trillion) and a 2.7% GDP growth rate, South Korea no doubt can afford a modern military force.

    It goes to show that when someone else is feeding you, you (S. Korea) become lazy and easily satisfied with what you have. I call this 不長進。

    At the same time, while America deliberately makes South Korea relying on the U.S. to keep North Korea at bay, America has the perfect reason to stay in Korean peninsula to keep an eye on China and Russia.

    South Korea should take a look of what Israel is doing to defend itself from its enemies.

    S. Korea’s GDP is almost 5 times bigger than that of Israel.

    Let’s see what Moon can do in the next four years. Trump is tired of paying for it. Why don’t you take it over and let the U.S. go?

    Definitely May 14, 2017

    Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Global Affair.
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    The more trouble America has, the better it is for the world and China.

    The U.S. opposed One Belt One Road and the BRICS Bank (now the New Development Bank) when Xi Jinping first proposed this strategic alliance in 2013 and later threatened its allies not to joint this initiative. None of them except Japan took American advice.

    Why?

    Because the United States realized that it threatened America’s leadership in the world. 

    So what America did to counter this threat? Pivot to the East.

    Now the U.S. and Japan want in. 恬不知恥是也。

    Just make them second or third tier observers with no right to vote.

    BRI vs PE.

    I for one like to see BRI took the lead not only on world trade but also on making friends in the world for decades and cennturies. What America leadership gave the world was one firthy rich and powerful bully, a few so-called allies, a poppy, a pawn and many enemies.

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