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Will China invade Taiwan? October 26, 2019

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, 習近平, 蘇俄, Military, Taiwan, 台灣, 中國.
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Could China Really Invade and Take Over Taiwan by Force?

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/could-china-really-invade-and-take-over-taiwan-force-90646
Imagining this:
 
Some time after the unlikely event of a DPP’s win of the upcoming presidential election in early 2020, be it one month, one year or two years, China announces that it has taken over the islands of Jinmeng (金門) and Mazhu (馬祖) after a bloodless invasion overnight. Penghu (澎湖) is the next target. Plans for a full-scale invasion of the island of Taiwan have long been drawn up but the invasion isn’t on the table just yet.
 
China also announces that “Operation Cutting the Head of;斬首行動” has begun. In the same announcement, China says that this is an internal affair and it warns other country to staying clear of seas surrounding the island. In other words, an areal and a sea blockades are in effect immediately.
 
What will the U.S. do?More sanctions against China? Propose to sell more defensive weapons to Taiwan? Send in an additional aircraft carriers to the Eastern Pacific Ocean? In other words, possibly not much different from Obama’s responses against Russia after invasion of Crimea.
 
What will Taiwan’s official response be? Declare independence and activate military reserves? Ask the U.S.to send in more marines to Taipei?
 
What willTsai Yingwen and DPP top officers’ next move be?Fly to Japan, hide in Japan’s official office in Taipei or send Mayingjiu to Beijing to negotiate a surrender to PLA in secret?
 
Will Taiwan’s stock market drop 65% overnight? Maybe it is 75% instead.
 
This will definitely qualify as a “black swan” for the stock markets around the world.
 
Are you prepared for it?
 
 

Shanghai, the capital of the future April 20, 2019

Posted by hslu in China, Shanghai, Travel, 浦東, 一帶一路, 上海, 中國.
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Check out this story on the Global and Mail:

Welcome to Shanghai, the capital of the future

http://flip.it/LhVsvN from Flipboard.

The moment I finished reading this article I wrote the following to my kids:

Did I see this kind of growth when I bought the apartment in Pudong?

No.

Am I surprised at the level of urbanization happened over the past 34 years since I first visited The Bund in 1985?

Absolutely.

Am I happy that I made that decision to buy that small apartment so that it acts as a conduit to physically connect you all to our root in China?

Definitely.

Did we enjoy our stays in Shanghai over the past eight years since we bought that place?

Of course.

Mom and I will definitely make more use of the apartment in the future and you might want to consider coming for a visit sometime.

The glamour of the modern Pudong financial district. The Bund across the Huangpu Jiang (river,黃浦江) from Pudong retains the attractive and mystical, to me at least, image of the 1930 Shanghai.

Xintiandi (新天地), Tianzifang (田子坊), Chenghuang Miao (城隍廟), Nanjing East Road promenade (南京東路步行街), The Bund(外灘), Pudong’s Riverside Promenade (濱江大道) and many other attractions are the places we like to go. we don’t go there to shop. We just go there to soak in the nostalgic vibe and at the same time the vibrant atmosphere of a growing, expanding and modern city.

The High Speed Railroad (高鐵) makes Shanghai an ideal starting point to visit many cities around China such as Hangzhou (杭州), Suzhou (蘇州), Beijing (北京), silk road (絲路), Lijiang & Shangri-La (麗江,香格里拉 which Mom and I are going in 2 weeks).

Taking a train to Moscow is not out of the question either.

Then there are myriad of foods from many regions in China and around the world which one can sample from road side cafes, street vendors, boutique eateries and many fancy restaurants by world famous chefs.

Shopping in Shanghai should be done selectively because it isn’t as cheap as even five years ago. Fortunately, Mom has realized that, at our age, expensive and compulsive shopping is something which should be limited now.

Living in Taiwan is very comfortable, extremely affordabl and convinient but the island is too small and the future too unclear to not worry about it.

Well, we can’t wait to get back to Shanghai.

A panel discussion on global financial risk at Davos January 23, 2019

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Economics, Renminbi, Trade, U.S. dollar, 一帶一路, 中國.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-01-22/dalio-weber-on-rethinking-global-financial-risk-davos-panel-video

 

 

 

A Chinese financial regulator, a professor on macroeconomics, a hedge fund boss and a world-class bank CEO discussing global financial crisis with heavy emphasis on China.

An eye-opening panel discussion.

China and U.S. relationship October 5, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 石油, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Military, Xi Jinping, 一帶一路, 中國.
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The Trump administration just ‘reset’ the U.S.-China relationship

Columnist, Washington Post’ October 4 at 7:44 PM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-trump-administration-just-reset-the-us-china-relationship/2018/10/04/c727266e-c810-11e8-b2b5-79270f9cce17_story.html?utm_term=.ddd307806a95

 

Pence said this in his speech: ” (T)he United States will newly confront Beijing’s worldwide economic and strategic aggression, oppose its internal repression and compel the Chinese government to change its behavior on both fronts.”

What Pence should recognize was this: Washington has spread its worldwide economic and strategic aggression, imposed internal repression and should have changed its behavior on both fronts a long time ago but hasn’t.”

Pence also “laid out a litany of ways the Chinese Communist Party spreads influence inside the United States and around the world.”

Pence forgot that: “America has imposed economic aggression, military adventurism, influence operations, authoritarian expansion and nations’ building activities around the world for decades.”

Pence also said that “We will not relent until our relationship with China is grounded in fairness, reciprocity and respect for our sovereignty,”

What Pence failed to point out was this: America has never respected other nation’s sovereignty and this should change so that other nations can begin.to respect America’s sovereignty too.

America is a threat to the world. Every nation in the world, except a few like Japan and Saudi Arabia, know that.

I like to see China’s response to America’s threats.

 

俗語說得好:“兵來將擋,水來土掩。”你美國有什麼招數儘管發出來吧。“

 

建議:先動動嘴皮子。馬上發表一篇文章把美國在過去 70 年在國際關係上做過的壞事一一的列舉出來。這個應該比較簡單。在此同時,暗地裏準備好對付美國的辦法。看美國出那一招,中國就找出他的致命傷,打他個措手不及。

其實最有效的方法就是把美國的經濟打出千瘡百孔,弄他個元氣大傷。美國人只要沒事做,除了伸手拿救濟金,他們就沒折了。一般美國人熬不了幾個禮拜的。這些美國人有新車,有電視,有很多張信用卡,有貸款,沒有積蓄,沒有準備金,沒有退休金,叫他們現在那四百塊錢出來他們都拿不出來。到時候,這些人呱唧呱唧的叫,Trump 就會下臺一鞠躬了。

 

 

第一诗词 July 12, 2018

Posted by hslu in 美食, 川普, 中國.
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Friend shared a link to the subject poem. Here is the link and my response.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__ biz=MzIzMzk0ODU0OQ==&mid= 2247486360&idx=1&sn= 6f0d006c1e8c80426158aa5c8746f8 27&chksm= e8fc9f72df8b1664db852c9266c55a 5ba2abe8ca48946045e5de3ead307b 62a8abbff1c562e0&mpshare=1& scene=2&srcid= 0709ilAZMqW9l50k4CEM9LKK&from= timeline#rd

一首诗轰动全球华人圈,让国人沸腾,西方沉默!

清风入怀抱 第一诗词 3天前

Here are my thoughts:

I actually don’t like this essay, especially the tone of voice of the Chinese translation. To me, the wording makes it sounds like, pardon my harsh words, a slave asking for his master’s forgiveness, a humble and submissive worker requesting his bullying and all powerful superior’s guidances or a low self-esteem husband who got caught sneaking into the back door in the morning begging for his mean and ugly wife’s mercy.
China is a sovereign country and, as such, China shouldn’t have to ask for other country’s (reads USA) permission to govern its own nation that way it sees fit, protect its lands, guard its national security, fulfill its duties to its people and work towards its obligations to the world.
When China made a mistake, e.g., the smog, do as much as it can to correct the wrong, let others see your accomplishments and move forward.
To hell with the western liberal media’s propaganda! In fact, China should do as much as it can to counter western media’s bias and have its own big voices heard in the world, particularly in the US where most of this evil depiction of China came from.
Has the US apologized for what it has done and is still doing to the world in the past 70 years?
A few cases in point:
1. America used 25% of the world resources to enrich itself for much of the past seventy years,
2. America started many unilateral military actions against other sovereign nations and is still killing many innocent people in many parts of the world. America calls it collateral damage.
3. America used its overwhelming dominance in the financial industry to threaten and sanction other countries into submissions in the name of policing the world peace and protecting America’s national interests,
4. America enjoyed prolonged period of extremely low inflation in the US while exported pollutions to the rest of the world and at the same time cry for human rights and damaging environments outside of the US,
5. The US president now cries for unfair treatments to the American workers and starts unilateral trade wars against the world,
6. America devastated the entire world’s economy and pushed hundreds of millions of people into poverty because of actions of greedy and unscrupulous Wall Street billionaires, stupid US congressmen and congresswomen and failed American government oversight bodies and regulators in the latest financial crisis.
7. At the same time, the action of the US government protected the CEOs of failed Wall Street institutions and created unprecedented inequalities in the entire world,
8. America almost single-handed caused the boom and bust economic cycles in the world and started numerous currency crisis in the developing countries because Federal Reserve raised and lowered interest rates in the US,
8. America instigated numerous covert and open actions to destabilize other nations’ governments for much of the last seven decades and then build that nation with America taxpayers’ money to conform to America’s foreign policy at the time. In the end, it created many rich politicians and made millions hate America,
9. America walked away from contracts and treaties signed by past US governments with other nations and bulled the world to bend under American’s demands,
10. Exported killing machines to other nations, destabilized many regions of the world and started escalating arm races across continents so that these countries will come back for more weapons.
Well, the list goes one but I hope you get the drift.
You most likely have a different opinion about America’s actions, China and the world, if I offended you, please forgive my bluntness.
唉,都已經七老還有一會兒才到八十了,還去管什麼天下大事,實在是沒事找事做。這明明白白的就是杞人憂天,自尋煩惱,活該倒楣,完全是自找的嗎。能把把身邊雞毛蒜皮的小事擺平,該吃藥的時候吃藥,該關火的時候關火,該走路的時候走路,該笑的時候笑就可以高枕無憂了。你說是不是?

Anti Japanese sentiment in Australia 80 years ago July 5, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Congress, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Election, 蘇俄, Islam, Muslim, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Source: Flipboard

.

http://flip.it/W8Fs-N

The sentiment against Japanes influence over Australia’s economy and its natural resources 80 years ago led to iron ore export embargo to Japan in the mid 1930’s. That seemingly inconsequential decision nonetheless played a roll in the ensuing Japanese invasion of China on July 7, 1937 (盧溝橋事變) and the attack on Pearl Harbor on December 8, 1942 (偷襲珍珠港) by the Japanese navy.

That kind of sentiment is happening against in the U.S. Now, the resentment is against China.

The transfer of world power from the U.S. to China is inevitable as America’s hegemony is crumbling in front of our eyes. The gradual demise of the United States of the America has been set in motion long before Trump occupied the White House. The conservative white people in the U.S. is making their last stand against this tsunami under Trump.

Unfortunately, Trump and his supportors are not just fighting against China’s growing influence in the world. They are fighting the liberals, the blacks, Latinos and the Muslims in the U.S. and Russia, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Yemen, Germany, France, European Union, Japan, Canada, Mexico, the Taliban, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in the world.

America saw the decline and became worried. It started to wage an all-out trade wars it has no chance of winning because this war can’t be won by guns, missiles and aircraft carriers. Tanks are useless in this war so are the F-35s. On the contrary, the trade wars will damage American’s economy and kill American jobs.

When the layoffs begin to surface and growth rate starts to take a hit, Americans will wake up to the devastating outcome Trump is leading them to. If they decide to show Republican legislators out of the door, it will be the end of Trump if Cohen and Mueller didn’t get him before November.

Trade war: China vs. the U.S. May 21, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Military, Trade, Trump, 川普, 中國.
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https://theconversation.com/why-china-cant-meet-trumps-200-billion-trade-demand-96888

There are ways to reduce trade deficitsif you look hard enough:

  1. America can sell these to China and reduce trade deficits very quickly: F-35s, F-22s, MQ9 Reaper Drones, Black Knights, XM2010 sniper rifles, THAAD anti-ballistic missile defense systems and Ford class aircraft carriers.
  1. Alternatively, Trump can order American people stop buying products made in China. That will change the trade deficit to a trade surplu

Actually, an trade deficit of $357 billion isn’t such a big deal, it’s only ~2% of the U.S. economy. Besides, if it won’t for the deflation China exports to the U.S., American people will be a lot poorer than they are now.

On the other hand, with daily products more expensive to buy, American people may learn to live within their means and cut up a few credit cards in their purses or wallets.

That may not be a bad thing if American people learn some financial discipline for a change.

Will Americans die for Taiwan’s independence? May 19, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Middle East, Military, Taiwan, U.S. Foreign Policy, 台灣, 中國.
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This article asks a simple question:

Do Americans want to die for Israel?

To me, the simple answer is: “no.”

Among all the allies of the United States, Israel is in a league of its own. Israel has the support of the Fifth Column in America: the so-called neoconservatives. The jewish State serves as an example of democracy advocated by the U.S. It is allowed to buy the most advanced weaponry from the U.S. without telling the world what it has purchased. It has enjoyed generous financial and military aids from the U.S. for decades. And last but not the least, Israel is “allowed” by the U.S. to own nuclear weapons without signing the Treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

With Trump moving American embassy to Jerusalem, tensions between Israel and surrounding Arab states will no doubt escalating.

What if a war breaks out between Iran and Israel, will America send U.S. soldiers to fight with the Israeli soldiers?

Most likely not.

By the same token, what if a war breaks out between China and Taiwan 10 years from now, will America send ground troops to Taiwan and shoot Chinese soldiers?

Definitely not.

China vs Trump April 23, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, jobs, Taiwan, Trade, Trump, 台灣, 川普, 中國.
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https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-china-trade-war-lose-by-jeffrey-frankel-2018-04

The author discusses reasons “why” China WON’T yeield to Trump’s trade war.

The key points of the article are:

  • Being the surplus country, China is in a stronger position over the U.S. because China has accumulated a stronger financial claims against America.
  • Tariffs will hurt America people more: U.S. companies will be forced to raise prices as input become more expensive.
  • Industries and consumers in China will suffer too but Chinese government, if it chooses to, can overrule interest groups and stifle protests more easily.
  • Public opinion in China will back retaliation against the U.S. because Chinese people remember well the Opium Wars, the Unequal Treaties and foreign invations in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Stand up against Trump will help overcome the legacy of China’s “century of humiliation” instigated by foreign countries including the U.S.
  • Trump’s flip-flop in matters big and small gives China little incentive to bother with making a deal with Trump.
  • China can offer Trump face saving way out of his trade war by exporting less to the U.S. directly while routing products through other countries where final assembly takes place, e.g., Taiwan.
  • Moves like this will satify Trump’s demand to reduce bilateral merchandise trade deficit but will not improve America’s external balance, output, trade deficits, employment or real wages.
  • No amount of Trump’s gleeful photo ops, self-congratulatory tweets, or triumphant Fox News reports will change that.

Even I saw that coming April 16, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Military, Putin, Russia, Taiwan, Trump, 台灣, 川普, 中國.
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I wrote about the new cold war long time ago between China and the U.S.

The cold war between Russia and the U.S. has intensified after Trump was investigated by Mueller and the situation shows no sign of improving at all after America-led air strike on Syria this past weekend.

While China and the U.S. is now engaging in a give and take on the trading front, two more worrisome developments have cast a shadow on the China-U.S. relationship:

  • The prospect of elevating the status of Taiwan on the part of the U.S. to start a new run of diplomatic confrontation.

  • Trump has talked about re-joining the TPP trade pact as a strategic development to further isolate China in the Pacific and Southeast Asia region.

Both developments could push China and the U.S. into a more explosive and prolonged cold war. The situation probably won’t get any relief until Trump is either impeached or forced to resign from the office from the ongoing special counsel investigation.

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