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Trump lied to get votes? April 13, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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Or is he being flexible and not unlike any other politician?

The bottom line is this: do you believe what comes out of his mouth from now on?

Trump reverses course in 24 hours from Nato to China to Fed – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39591032

Article: Trump to abandon millions of high-wage jobs to China January 8, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Energy, Oil.
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Trump to abandon millions of high-wage jobs to China


Well, in a way, China has no other option but to go renewables in a grand scale to clean its air and environment. It is also a good way to reduce China’s dependence on foreign oil. China’s market on renewable is so huge that China doesn’t need anyone else to make it to work. 

What’s between a rock and a hard place December 11, 2016

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Election, Global Affair, Politics, Taiwan.
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Taiwan is. 

However, this time around, Taiwan, more precisely Tsai Ing-wen, will be played like a ping pong ball between two hard hitting ping pong paddles. Tsai ing-wen or a high level Taiwanese official may even get a chance to formally meet with someone from the State Department or DoD as a way to annoy China.

How China will hit back is not clear right now judging by China’s response to the phone call between Trump and Tsai. 

The ball with Tsai ing-wen’sname on it is in China’s court now but China might down play Trump’s comments again because Trump isn’t the president yet. There is no need to be worked up by a TV interview yet. 

Remember Trump’s comment on the phone call after it caused some fuss from the White House and Congress? “It was just a phone call.”

Trump’s intention was very clear though: if I got what I want from China, Taiwan can go back to be part of One China. If I didn’t get what I want, this ball game will continue down to the dark alley with bad outcomes. 

The one player who will get the short end of the stick won’t be the U.S. or China. It will liked be Taiwan.

Whether Trump will follow his words with tough actions against China next year and how China’s Xi Jinping choose to respond will be THE blackswan for the world financial markets to digest. Can the major U.S. indices continue their march to another all time highs? I don’t think so.

It could end very badly. 

The path to an outcome, any outcome good or bad, will be a long, unpredictable and tumultuous one. I don’t think markets will like it. I don’t think Taiwan’s economy will escape the damage either because America has less influence on Taiwan’s economy than China does.

How Tsai ing-wen choose to be played is also worth watching too. What will Taiwan want from Trump? What real and lasting benefits can Taiwan get from Trump? Will Taiwan’s stock market continue to rise next week? Will the New Taiwanese Dollar drop below the recent support of $33.6989 to 1 U.S.dollar?

Trump’s position on Russia is an interesting one too. Apparently Trump is courting Putin because he is considering ExxonMobil’s Tillerson as the Secretary of State. Will Putin fall in line and be played by Trump as well? Not likely.

In any case, brace yourself because the ride will be a very bumpy one and someone will get hurt.


BBC News: US election 2016: China eyes chance to weaken US power November 10, 2016

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Global Affair.
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US election 2016: China eyes chance to weaken US power – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-37924880

You might want to read my accompanying blog too.

Pudong in three pictures February 3, 2016

Posted by hslu in China, Shanghai.
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Afternoon Tea: The Peninsula; The Bund, Shanghai November 29, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Retirement, Shanghai, Travel.
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It opened less than two years ago and it has attracted many affluent clients from all over the world. We came for the afternoon tea. We have been to The Peninsula of Hong Kong and liked its afternoon tea very much. I am sure the quality was equally excellent here in Shanghai, China. And we weren’t disappointed. The only thing I liked to mention other than excellent food, quality ingredients, western decor,  business oriented vibe, silver-plated dinnerware and very friendly service was that there was way more food than we could finish in one setting. Well, not to worry, we got a bag to take left-over back to our apartment.

Reservation was recommended and the seats filled up pretty fast according to the lady who took my call.

When it is compared to The Peninsula in Hong Kong, there were way more international tourists at The Peninsula Hong Kong and I felt is was somewhat rushed there too.

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First Single Aisle, now。。。。。 September 21, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics.
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First, Airbus’s A-320 and Boeing’s 757 will soon have a much needed competition in the single aisle aircraft market from China’s Comac ARJ21 Xiangfeng 翔鳳.








Source: Shimin Guhttp://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=6998514&nseq=726

For your information, below is an estimate on the market shares of various players in the world. This estimate is four years old and impact of ARJ21 isn’t included in the estimate.


With ARJ21 is about to make delivery, Airbus’s A-380 and Boeing’s 747 will have a new competitor in this lucrative airspace, probably in 5 to 10 years.

Joint development by China and Russia in wide-body aircraft.

Joint development by China and Russia in wide-body aircraft.

Source: Yahoo Finance.


China knows that it doesn’t have the technological know-how now to develop this aircraft by itself. Working with Russia is a logical step to take strategically and economically. This move makes sense for Russia too because it desperately wants to move away from the commodity (reads oil) dominant economy too.

Did Obama’s animosity toward Putin in any way accelerate the joint development?

I wonder what’s the next target for China to compete in the commercial landscape: selling cars in the USA and Europe?


Watch out Taiwan: Korea is leaving you behind November 14, 2014

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Global Affair, Taipei, Taiwan.
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China and Korea have been talking about a trade deal for more than 2 years and it finally happened at the APEC summit in Beijing a few days ago.

The trade deal will eliminate 90% of import tariffs between two countries on 17 areas over the next twenty years. The free trade agreement will take effect sometime in 2015.

While Korea is signing deals with its largest trading partner to strengthen its financial positions and to secure trading advantages over Taiwan, what does Taiwan do in the mean time?

Well, a lot is going on except finding a way to counter Korea’s move.

1.   A part of Taiwan, including some students who occupied the legislature body about six months ago, are still talking about independence.

2.   KMD is still waging an all out war in the court against one of its prominent members: 王金平 because 馬英九 couldn’t take the defeat whether 馬英九 is justified in his action or not.

3.   馬英九 has finally admitted that there is no chance that 習近平 will see him at APEC. 馬英九 is still hoping to see 習近平 before he leaves the office in two years. 馬英九 has to think about his legacy and he better think fast because China may think he is a damaged good with his low approval rating in the poll

4.   Many people are focusing on mayoral election in Taipei which is coming up in less than two weeks. KMD and the central government are pouring all resources to defend KMD’s candidate in the capital city because he has been behind the de facto green candidate since the campaign began many months ago.

5.   The legislature body is still tied up like before and hope for compromise is rather slim.

6.   Most citizens are trying to keep up with the ever changing story in the news on matters much more important than the election: what is safe to eat, which oil they have been cooking their meals with for the past 5 to 10 years, where they can get refunds for the bad cooking oil they have paid for and whether they should use lard to cook their meals with.

7.   Most young couples are debating whether they should buy their first home now since the government has been fighting a war against the rising home value for the past few years.

8.   The real estate agents are suffering because fewer people are visiting their showrooms because people believe the price will drop in the near future.

Yeah, there are a lot of things which goes on in Taiwan. But I bet very few people pay attention to what Korea is doing with China.

Wait, did I mention that China is investing as much as $19.5 billion to develop China’s semiconductor industry? It was revealed in June of 2014 that China aims to turn the country into a leading semiconductor maker which will compete directly with the last remaining money-maker for Taiwan.

You better watch out, Taiwan. Although Christmas is coming, Santa Claus is leaving the town.


美國:三面受敵 September 3, 2014

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Obama, Oil, Putin.
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Yesterday I talked about NATO, US, Russia and China. In it I talked about US is fighting 3 wars:

—- —- —- —- —- —- —- —-
‘America is fighting a Cold war with Russia. It Probably will last another 40 years.’

‘America is fighting a guerrilla warfare with muslim terrorists. This war may last another 100 years.’

‘Obama also managed to piss off China by rounding up China’s neighbors in order to put a NATO equvalent around China. He called that ‘pivot to the East’ in the name of protecting America’s national interests.’
—- —- —- —- —- —- —- —-

Today, an article on NYT, which appears on CNBC mobile site, talked about the same thing. The main point of the article can be simply stated as ‘US defense budget has to go up if America wants to prosecute these wars.’

On this point, the Republicans are with Obama but American’s pocket isn’t. Well, the only way to get around this is to borrow more money and run up the national debt faster than you can count the digits on the national debt clock.

Yeah, go ahead. Borrow some more. Raise taxes if you must. The millenniums will Pay for it.

Hmm…, this was exactly how past empires were bought down to their knees.

America will be no different. The decay will happen: slowly but surely. Obama already got the process started with Obamacare and trillions of deficits over the last several years.

The drama continues.

NATO, US, Russia and China September 2, 2014

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Energy, Euro, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, misc, Obama, Oil, Putin.
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The US is pulling strings to dictate what NATO needs to do in order to restrict Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.


Source: WSJ.

NATO is essentially the US because US accounts for the majority of the funding, provides the bulk of the military assets and is a puppy of the Pentagon. It pretty much does what US tells it to do. Germany, U.K. and France are what we call ‘昨日黃花’ because they don’t have money or the will to fight a war they deem not essential for their national interests. They have no desire to lead a fight against Putin’s Russia because it was not their fight. All other NATO members are what we call ‘跑龍套的’ because all they can do is act like cheerleaders on the sideline because they don’t have anything to offer. That leaves US with ‘The US.’

NATO is a case of ‘一個願打 一個願挨’ 兩邊 ‘一拍即合’ 是也。

America started the Cold War against Russia and America ended the Cold War which was a great achievement. The US enjoyed peace dividend and for a while didn’t know what to do with all the extra money that came with the defeat of the Soviet Union.

Over the next 10 some years, America forgot about Russia because Berlin Wall came down, Soviet Union was torn apart, Russia entered into bankruptcy, America reached to the pinacle of the world and the new world order was functioning just like what American strategists have envisioned. Russia was like a sick tiger with no influence what so ever in the world.

The American empire was finally in place and by this time the United States dominated almost every corner of the world. America created many colonies and it did it with American dollar along with the most powerful military in the world.

Then came 9/11. With that, what took America half a century to put together came down like a house of cards.

America became a hostage of Bin Laden. America then spent trillions to beef up its security by fighting two wars and monitoring almost everything  within its borders. Thetremendous costs acted like a national tax on itself. The Fed then reduced interest rates which planted the seeds to the financial crisis. It then reallyrr bought America to its knees. Most western nations, many of them NATO members, kowtowed with the US and they helplessly saw their national debts went through the roof.

Oil prices went through the roof which benefited Muslim nations and none other than Russia: the old tiger who were licking its wounds.

Which bought everyone; including NATO, to 2014, Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk and now Mariupol.

Ukraine war is a sideshow. Putin is fighting a war he will not lose. Eventually he’ll get Donbass and a pathway to Crimea. Then he’ll stop. And what America is doing to counter Putin’s aggression: economic sanctions and travel restrictions. Yeah!  Putin is shivering in Kremlin.

Obama also managed to piss off China by rounding up China’s neighbors in order to put a NATO equvalent around China. He called that ‘pivot to the East’ in the name of protecting America’s national interests.

Over the same time period, America’s war on terror killed thousands of innocent Muslims and reealy amplified the resentment and hatred against the US. As a result, America is fighting a prolonged guerrilla warfare with many muslims groups and whether America  likes it or not, the war in voming to the America.

Obama’s incomptency, his misguided Middle East policy, his animosity against Israel and his deliberated retreated from the world stage completely back fired. Now, America is fighting three wars at the same time. And where was NATO? NATO was still daydreaming; dreamed what Chinese call ‘黃粱一夢,’  and by the time NATO got their act together, Putin already gets what He wants from Ukraine.

America is fighting a Cold war with Russia. It Probably will last another 40 years.

America is fighting a guerrilla warfare with muslim terrorists. This war may last another 100 years.

And what China is doing now? China is building high speed railroads everywhere they need one. China is building Air Craft Carriers until they think they have enough. China is developing fighter jets and commercial airlines to satisfies their own demands and expands into world market. China is making deals on pipelines and terminals with countries rich in natural resources. China is exploring space to advance its technology. China is strengthening its financial system and currency which one day will bring down the US dollars. China is getting rid of corruptions which has reached to the highest level of the local and central government.

And what the American empire is doing? America is making bombs, bullets, missiles and blackhawk helicopters.

Oh, the once mighty America the empire is borrowing money to get by day in and day out. It has been busy piling on debt after debt to as far as eye can see into the future.

Happy time isn’t far away, CNBC keeps telling US, because stocks are at all time high and the sky is the limit. Trust me, Yellen told us that too.

Hmmm…., what was that I heard on the news that another mortgage crisis is coming this winter?

Don’t Look at me! I didn’t say that. Bove did. He said it on CNBC’s today: 09-02-2014.

What does Chinese have to say about this? ‘鷸蚌相爭 漁翁得利也.’

Hmmm.., before I forget, Soro has a billion+ dollar short on the S&P 500. Thought you might want to know.

Hmmm…, how do I get you back to NATO? Last I heard they were debating sanctions against Russia again.

I have a suggestion and it is a grwat one:

Why don’t they get it over with by putting a real tough sanction against Putin himself. He has billions somewhere, doesn’t he? Freeze his assets. Don’t Let him in the US, German, UK and France. Add Italy and Spain while NATO is working so hard now.

That for sure will get Putin’s attention.