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China or the U.S.? October 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Globlization, 中國.
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We are talking about the largest economy in the world here. And the answer, according to Noah Smith, is China.

https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/articles/2017-10-18/who-has-the-world-s-no-1-economy-not-the-u-s#ampshare=https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-18/who-has-the-world-s-no-1-economy-not-the-u-s

I started talking about the downfall of the U.S. in 2009. Finally, some one agreed with me eight years later.

What’s even more surprising to me is this: Noah Smith believes that China will eventually come out on top if these two countries engage in a conventional war. He cites China’s advantages in population and manufacture prowess.

I am glad that I get to see this happening in my life time. 中國, The Midfle Kingdom, has come back to glory from the humiliation it suffered after 甲午戰爭, the First Sino-Japanese War, and the signing of 馬關條約, Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895.

Source: The wikipedia

Source: The wikipedia

Well, 甲午戰爭 and 馬關條約 are history now and, finally, a brand new chapter in 中國近代史 has begun with China’s 十九大, the 19th Communist Party congress, and its 十三五, China’s 13th Five-Year Plan.

While Trump is writing a $25,000 check from his personal account to the father of a dead soldier and arguing with a Democratic Congresswoman about what Trump said to another dead soldier’s family, China is walking its own path and carrying out its expansion plans systematically.

Yeah, let Trump tweets and pisses off at everyone who disgrees with him, McCain, Tillerson, Muller, McConnell, Schumer, CNN, NBC, NFL players and many others, the family feud makes good drama for the world to enjoy. 

Source: Fox News

Source: The Daily Mail.

Source: The Daily Mail.

I am not complaining at all. It’s entertsining and fun to see when the s**** hits the fan.

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Trump lied to get votes? April 13, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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Or is he being flexible and not unlike any other politician?

The bottom line is this: do you believe what comes out of his mouth from now on?

Trump reverses course in 24 hours from Nato to China to Fed – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39591032

Article: Trump to abandon millions of high-wage jobs to China January 8, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Energy, Oil.
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Trump to abandon millions of high-wage jobs to China

http://flip.it/-A5CnG

Well, in a way, China has no other option but to go renewables in a grand scale to clean its air and environment. It is also a good way to reduce China’s dependence on foreign oil. China’s market on renewable is so huge that China doesn’t need anyone else to make it to work. 

What’s between a rock and a hard place December 11, 2016

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Election, Global Affair, Politics, Taiwan.
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Taiwan is. 

However, this time around, Taiwan, more precisely Tsai Ing-wen, will be played like a ping pong ball between two hard hitting ping pong paddles. Tsai ing-wen or a high level Taiwanese official may even get a chance to formally meet with someone from the State Department or DoD as a way to annoy China.

How China will hit back is not clear right now judging by China’s response to the phone call between Trump and Tsai. 

The ball with Tsai ing-wen’sname on it is in China’s court now but China might down play Trump’s comments again because Trump isn’t the president yet. There is no need to be worked up by a TV interview yet. 

Remember Trump’s comment on the phone call after it caused some fuss from the White House and Congress? “It was just a phone call.”

Trump’s intention was very clear though: if I got what I want from China, Taiwan can go back to be part of One China. If I didn’t get what I want, this ball game will continue down to the dark alley with bad outcomes. 

The one player who will get the short end of the stick won’t be the U.S. or China. It will liked be Taiwan.

Whether Trump will follow his words with tough actions against China next year and how China’s Xi Jinping choose to respond will be THE blackswan for the world financial markets to digest. Can the major U.S. indices continue their march to another all time highs? I don’t think so.

It could end very badly. 

The path to an outcome, any outcome good or bad, will be a long, unpredictable and tumultuous one. I don’t think markets will like it. I don’t think Taiwan’s economy will escape the damage either because America has less influence on Taiwan’s economy than China does.

How Tsai ing-wen choose to be played is also worth watching too. What will Taiwan want from Trump? What real and lasting benefits can Taiwan get from Trump? Will Taiwan’s stock market continue to rise next week? Will the New Taiwanese Dollar drop below the recent support of $33.6989 to 1 U.S.dollar?

Trump’s position on Russia is an interesting one too. Apparently Trump is courting Putin because he is considering ExxonMobil’s Tillerson as the Secretary of State. Will Putin fall in line and be played by Trump as well? Not likely.

In any case, brace yourself because the ride will be a very bumpy one and someone will get hurt.

天下要大變了。

BBC News: US election 2016: China eyes chance to weaken US power November 10, 2016

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Global Affair.
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US election 2016: China eyes chance to weaken US power – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-37924880

You might want to read my accompanying blog too.

Pudong in three pictures February 3, 2016

Posted by hslu in China, Shanghai.
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1990

1990

2015

2015

2015

2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sources:

http://www.kankanews.com/a/2015-04-14/0036650064.shtml

 

Afternoon Tea: The Peninsula; The Bund, Shanghai November 29, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Retirement, Shanghai, Travel.
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It opened less than two years ago and it has attracted many affluent clients from all over the world. We came for the afternoon tea. We have been to The Peninsula of Hong Kong and liked its afternoon tea very much. I am sure the quality was equally excellent here in Shanghai, China. And we weren’t disappointed. The only thing I liked to mention other than excellent food, quality ingredients, western decor,  business oriented vibe, silver-plated dinnerware and very friendly service was that there was way more food than we could finish in one setting. Well, not to worry, we got a bag to take left-over back to our apartment.

Reservation was recommended and the seats filled up pretty fast according to the lady who took my call.

When it is compared to The Peninsula in Hong Kong, there were way more international tourists at The Peninsula Hong Kong and I felt is was somewhat rushed there too.

20141027_143145 20141027_143420 20141027_143459 20141027_145608 20141027_154545 20141027_154935 20141027_155005 20141027_155409

 

 

First Single Aisle, now。。。。。 September 21, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics.
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First, Airbus’s A-320 and Boeing’s 757 will soon have a much needed competition in the single aisle aircraft market from China’s Comac ARJ21 Xiangfeng 翔鳳.

COMAC ARJ21

COMAC ARJ21

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Shimin Guhttp://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=6998514&nseq=726

For your information, below is an estimate on the market shares of various players in the world. This estimate is four years old and impact of ARJ21 isn’t included in the estimate.

Slide3

With ARJ21 is about to make delivery, Airbus’s A-380 and Boeing’s 747 will have a new competitor in this lucrative airspace, probably in 5 to 10 years.

Joint development by China and Russia in wide-body aircraft.

Joint development by China and Russia in wide-body aircraft.

Source: Yahoo Finance.

 

China knows that it doesn’t have the technological know-how now to develop this aircraft by itself. Working with Russia is a logical step to take strategically and economically. This move makes sense for Russia too because it desperately wants to move away from the commodity (reads oil) dominant economy too.

Did Obama’s animosity toward Putin in any way accelerate the joint development?

I wonder what’s the next target for China to compete in the commercial landscape: selling cars in the USA and Europe?

 

Watch out Taiwan: Korea is leaving you behind November 14, 2014

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Global Affair, Taipei, Taiwan.
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China and Korea have been talking about a trade deal for more than 2 years and it finally happened at the APEC summit in Beijing a few days ago.

The trade deal will eliminate 90% of import tariffs between two countries on 17 areas over the next twenty years. The free trade agreement will take effect sometime in 2015.

While Korea is signing deals with its largest trading partner to strengthen its financial positions and to secure trading advantages over Taiwan, what does Taiwan do in the mean time?

Well, a lot is going on except finding a way to counter Korea’s move.

1.   A part of Taiwan, including some students who occupied the legislature body about six months ago, are still talking about independence.

2.   KMD is still waging an all out war in the court against one of its prominent members: 王金平 because 馬英九 couldn’t take the defeat whether 馬英九 is justified in his action or not.

3.   馬英九 has finally admitted that there is no chance that 習近平 will see him at APEC. 馬英九 is still hoping to see 習近平 before he leaves the office in two years. 馬英九 has to think about his legacy and he better think fast because China may think he is a damaged good with his low approval rating in the poll

4.   Many people are focusing on mayoral election in Taipei which is coming up in less than two weeks. KMD and the central government are pouring all resources to defend KMD’s candidate in the capital city because he has been behind the de facto green candidate since the campaign began many months ago.

5.   The legislature body is still tied up like before and hope for compromise is rather slim.

6.   Most citizens are trying to keep up with the ever changing story in the news on matters much more important than the election: what is safe to eat, which oil they have been cooking their meals with for the past 5 to 10 years, where they can get refunds for the bad cooking oil they have paid for and whether they should use lard to cook their meals with.

7.   Most young couples are debating whether they should buy their first home now since the government has been fighting a war against the rising home value for the past few years.

8.   The real estate agents are suffering because fewer people are visiting their showrooms because people believe the price will drop in the near future.

Yeah, there are a lot of things which goes on in Taiwan. But I bet very few people pay attention to what Korea is doing with China.

Wait, did I mention that China is investing as much as $19.5 billion to develop China’s semiconductor industry? It was revealed in June of 2014 that China aims to turn the country into a leading semiconductor maker which will compete directly with the last remaining money-maker for Taiwan.

You better watch out, Taiwan. Although Christmas is coming, Santa Claus is leaving the town.

 

美國:三面受敵 September 3, 2014

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Obama, Oil, Putin.
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Yesterday I talked about NATO, US, Russia and China. In it I talked about US is fighting 3 wars:

—- —- —- —- —- —- —- —-
‘America is fighting a Cold war with Russia. It Probably will last another 40 years.’

‘America is fighting a guerrilla warfare with muslim terrorists. This war may last another 100 years.’

‘Obama also managed to piss off China by rounding up China’s neighbors in order to put a NATO equvalent around China. He called that ‘pivot to the East’ in the name of protecting America’s national interests.’
—- —- —- —- —- —- —- —-

Today, an article on NYT, which appears on CNBC mobile site, talked about the same thing. The main point of the article can be simply stated as ‘US defense budget has to go up if America wants to prosecute these wars.’

On this point, the Republicans are with Obama but American’s pocket isn’t. Well, the only way to get around this is to borrow more money and run up the national debt faster than you can count the digits on the national debt clock.

Yeah, go ahead. Borrow some more. Raise taxes if you must. The millenniums will Pay for it.

Hmm…, this was exactly how past empires were bought down to their knees.

America will be no different. The decay will happen: slowly but surely. Obama already got the process started with Obamacare and trillions of deficits over the last several years.

The drama continues.

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