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Trade war: China vs. the U.S. May 21, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Military, Trade, Trump, 川普, 中國.
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https://theconversation.com/why-china-cant-meet-trumps-200-billion-trade-demand-96888

There are ways to reduce trade deficitsif you look hard enough:

  1. America can sell these to China and reduce trade deficits very quickly: F-35s, F-22s, MQ9 Reaper Drones, Black Knights, XM2010 sniper rifles, THAAD anti-ballistic missile defense systems and Ford class aircraft carriers.
  1. Alternatively, Trump can order American people stop buying products made in China. That will change the trade deficit to a trade surplu

Actually, an trade deficit of $357 billion isn’t such a big deal, it’s only ~2% of the U.S. economy. Besides, if it won’t for the deflation China exports to the U.S., American people will be a lot poorer than they are now.

On the other hand, with daily products more expensive to buy, American people may learn to live within their means and cut up a few credit cards in their purses or wallets.

That may not be a bad thing if American people learn some financial discipline for a change.

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Will Americans die for Taiwan’s independence? May 19, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Middle East, Military, Taiwan, U.S. Foreign Policy, 台灣, 中國.
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This article asks a simple question:

Do Americans want to die for Israel?

To me, the simple answer is: “no.”

Among all the allies of the United States, Israel is in a league of its own. Israel has the support of the Fifth Column in America: the so-called neoconservatives. The jewish State serves as an example of democracy advocated by the U.S. It is allowed to buy the most advanced weaponry from the U.S. without telling the world what it has purchased. It has enjoyed generous financial and military aids from the U.S. for decades. And last but not the least, Israel is “allowed” by the U.S. to own nuclear weapons without signing the Treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

With Trump moving American embassy to Jerusalem, tensions between Israel and surrounding Arab states will no doubt escalating.

What if a war breaks out between Iran and Israel, will America send U.S. soldiers to fight with the Israeli soldiers?

Most likely not.

By the same token, what if a war breaks out between China and Taiwan 10 years from now, will America send ground troops to Taiwan and shoot Chinese soldiers?

Definitely not.

China vs Trump April 23, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, jobs, Taiwan, Trade, Trump, 台灣, 川普, 中國.
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https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-china-trade-war-lose-by-jeffrey-frankel-2018-04

The author discusses reasons “why” China WON’T yeield to Trump’s trade war.

The key points of the article are:

  • Being the surplus country, China is in a stronger position over the U.S. because China has accumulated a stronger financial claims against America.
  • Tariffs will hurt America people more: U.S. companies will be forced to raise prices as input become more expensive.
  • Industries and consumers in China will suffer too but Chinese government, if it chooses to, can overrule interest groups and stifle protests more easily.
  • Public opinion in China will back retaliation against the U.S. because Chinese people remember well the Opium Wars, the Unequal Treaties and foreign invations in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Stand up against Trump will help overcome the legacy of China’s “century of humiliation” instigated by foreign countries including the U.S.
  • Trump’s flip-flop in matters big and small gives China little incentive to bother with making a deal with Trump.
  • China can offer Trump face saving way out of his trade war by exporting less to the U.S. directly while routing products through other countries where final assembly takes place, e.g., Taiwan.
  • Moves like this will satify Trump’s demand to reduce bilateral merchandise trade deficit but will not improve America’s external balance, output, trade deficits, employment or real wages.
  • No amount of Trump’s gleeful photo ops, self-congratulatory tweets, or triumphant Fox News reports will change that.

Even I saw that coming April 16, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Military, Putin, Russia, Taiwan, Trump, 台灣, 川普, 中國.
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I wrote about the new cold war long time ago between China and the U.S.

The cold war between Russia and the U.S. has intensified after Trump was investigated by Mueller and the situation shows no sign of improving at all after America-led air strike on Syria this past weekend.

While China and the U.S. is now engaging in a give and take on the trading front, two more worrisome developments have cast a shadow on the China-U.S. relationship:

  • The prospect of elevating the status of Taiwan on the part of the U.S. to start a new run of diplomatic confrontation.

  • Trump has talked about re-joining the TPP trade pact as a strategic development to further isolate China in the Pacific and Southeast Asia region.

Both developments could push China and the U.S. into a more explosive and prolonged cold war. The situation probably won’t get any relief until Trump is either impeached or forced to resign from the office from the ongoing special counsel investigation.

互联网自由度:中国蝉联倒数第一 November 16, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Democracy, 中國.
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互联网自由度报告:中国蝉联倒数第一

https://www.flipboard.cn/articles/http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ftchinese.com%2Fstory%2F001075081?section_id=flipboard%2Fcurator%252Fmagazine%252Fp-xEKrG0RHaCrDx8eaEN6w%253Am%253A494392385

前幾次我們用vpn還可以上中國禁止的網站。後來聽說vpn被禁止,因為我們好久沒去浦東,所以不知道現在的情形如何。

這個月我們去三亞,有時候 GMAIL 管用,有時候不管用。下次去就知道了。

China or the U.S.? October 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Globlization, 中國.
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We are talking about the largest economy in the world here. And the answer, according to Noah Smith, is China.

https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/articles/2017-10-18/who-has-the-world-s-no-1-economy-not-the-u-s#ampshare=https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-18/who-has-the-world-s-no-1-economy-not-the-u-s

I started talking about the downfall of the U.S. in 2009. Finally, some one agreed with me eight years later.

What’s even more surprising to me is this: Noah Smith believes that China will eventually come out on top if these two countries engage in a conventional war. He cites China’s advantages in population and manufacture prowess.

I am glad that I get to see this happening in my life time. 中國, The Midfle Kingdom, has come back to glory from the humiliation it suffered after 甲午戰爭, the First Sino-Japanese War, and the signing of 馬關條約, Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895.

Source: The wikipedia

Source: The wikipedia

Well, 甲午戰爭 and 馬關條約 are history now and, finally, a brand new chapter in 中國近代史 has begun with China’s 十九大, the 19th Communist Party congress, and its 十三五, China’s 13th Five-Year Plan.

While Trump is writing a $25,000 check from his personal account to the father of a dead soldier and arguing with a Democratic Congresswoman about what Trump said to another dead soldier’s family, China is walking its own path and carrying out its expansion plans systematically.

Yeah, let Trump tweets and pisses off at everyone who disgrees with him, McCain, Tillerson, Muller, McConnell, Schumer, CNN, NBC, NFL players and many others, the family feud makes good drama for the world to enjoy. 

Source: Fox News

Source: The Daily Mail.

Source: The Daily Mail.

I am not complaining at all. It’s entertsining and fun to see when the s**** hits the fan.

Trump lied to get votes? April 13, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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Or is he being flexible and not unlike any other politician?

The bottom line is this: do you believe what comes out of his mouth from now on?

Trump reverses course in 24 hours from Nato to China to Fed – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39591032

Article: Trump to abandon millions of high-wage jobs to China January 8, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Energy, Oil.
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Trump to abandon millions of high-wage jobs to China

http://flip.it/-A5CnG

Well, in a way, China has no other option but to go renewables in a grand scale to clean its air and environment. It is also a good way to reduce China’s dependence on foreign oil. China’s market on renewable is so huge that China doesn’t need anyone else to make it to work. 

What’s between a rock and a hard place December 11, 2016

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Election, Global Affair, Politics, Taiwan.
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Taiwan is. 

However, this time around, Taiwan, more precisely Tsai Ing-wen, will be played like a ping pong ball between two hard hitting ping pong paddles. Tsai ing-wen or a high level Taiwanese official may even get a chance to formally meet with someone from the State Department or DoD as a way to annoy China.

How China will hit back is not clear right now judging by China’s response to the phone call between Trump and Tsai. 

The ball with Tsai ing-wen’sname on it is in China’s court now but China might down play Trump’s comments again because Trump isn’t the president yet. There is no need to be worked up by a TV interview yet. 

Remember Trump’s comment on the phone call after it caused some fuss from the White House and Congress? “It was just a phone call.”

Trump’s intention was very clear though: if I got what I want from China, Taiwan can go back to be part of One China. If I didn’t get what I want, this ball game will continue down to the dark alley with bad outcomes. 

The one player who will get the short end of the stick won’t be the U.S. or China. It will liked be Taiwan.

Whether Trump will follow his words with tough actions against China next year and how China’s Xi Jinping choose to respond will be THE blackswan for the world financial markets to digest. Can the major U.S. indices continue their march to another all time highs? I don’t think so.

It could end very badly. 

The path to an outcome, any outcome good or bad, will be a long, unpredictable and tumultuous one. I don’t think markets will like it. I don’t think Taiwan’s economy will escape the damage either because America has less influence on Taiwan’s economy than China does.

How Tsai ing-wen choose to be played is also worth watching too. What will Taiwan want from Trump? What real and lasting benefits can Taiwan get from Trump? Will Taiwan’s stock market continue to rise next week? Will the New Taiwanese Dollar drop below the recent support of $33.6989 to 1 U.S.dollar?

Trump’s position on Russia is an interesting one too. Apparently Trump is courting Putin because he is considering ExxonMobil’s Tillerson as the Secretary of State. Will Putin fall in line and be played by Trump as well? Not likely.

In any case, brace yourself because the ride will be a very bumpy one and someone will get hurt.

天下要大變了。

BBC News: US election 2016: China eyes chance to weaken US power November 10, 2016

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Global Affair.
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US election 2016: China eyes chance to weaken US power – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-37924880

You might want to read my accompanying blog too.

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