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Even I saw that coming April 16, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Military, Putin, Russia, Taiwan, Trump, 台灣, 川普, 中國.
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I wrote about the new cold war long time ago between China and the U.S.

The cold war between Russia and the U.S. has intensified after Trump was investigated by Mueller and the situation shows no sign of improving at all after America-led air strike on Syria this past weekend.

While China and the U.S. is now engaging in a give and take on the trading front, two more worrisome developments have cast a shadow on the China-U.S. relationship:

  • The prospect of elevating the status of Taiwan on the part of the U.S. to start a new run of diplomatic confrontation.

  • Trump has talked about re-joining the TPP trade pact as a strategic development to further isolate China in the Pacific and Southeast Asia region.

Both developments could push China and the U.S. into a more explosive and prolonged cold war. The situation probably won’t get any relief until Trump is either impeached or forced to resign from the office from the ongoing special counsel investigation.

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Shall I sell my stocks and short the S&P 500? April 11, 2018

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 美國, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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Never before in America history since the Vietnam war has a U.S. president led the country so close to war with so many countries at the same time: Russia, China, Iran, Syria and North Korea.

Source: The Guardian

Source: Business Insider

Actually, Trump had already declared trade wars with many countries with new tariffs on steel, aluminium and many other items.

May be I should just sell first and ask questions later because no one knowswhat’s coming in the next tweet: an aircraft carrier or a missile.

A peek inside Putin’s Russia March 16, 2018

Posted by hslu in 美國, Democracy, Putin, Russia.
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Does Putin’s Russia reject the West? – BBC News

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/russia_election

It is a long but very interesVeryand informative read.

You’ll like it.

And above all a bellicose and unpredictable Trump September 8, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Islam, Japan, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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The statement below by Jens Stoltenberg, the head of NATO, is true but Stoltenberg should have added bellicose Trump to the mix too.

But, Jens Soltenberg fogot to mention that the U.S., Russia, Israel, India, Parkistan and China, among others, have thousands of nuclear warheads pointing to each other at all times.

That’s a real perliferation of weapons of mass destruction indeed.

Trump is scared  May 12, 2017

Posted by hslu in Russia, Trump.
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May be it was the only reason he fired Comey.

I guess that since Comey won’t pledge loyalty to Trump, Trump has no other choice but to get rid of this no use grandstander and showboat.

Well, at least he was honest about how he felt about Comey. Maybe Trump has something to hide and Comey knew it.

But, please, will someone in the WH tell Trump to shut up because everything he said will one day, if necessary, be used to against him in the court of law?

The Trump saga just won’t end. When will Trump start acting like a president? He can’t run the WH like he has been doing since 1/20/2017, can he?

May be Trump is having a good time. You’ll never know.

U.S. government is as corrupted as many other countries in the world March 5, 2017

Posted by hslu in Russia, US Government.
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http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/03/03/peter-schweizer-trump-vs-clintons-russia-ties-guess-who-always-got-free-pass.html

Greedy Clintons.

Nation building or destruction? September 30, 2015

Posted by hslu in Cold War, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Obama, Putin.
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America wants Syria’s al-Assad out of power because al-Assad is a friend of Iran.

America, under Obama’s twist logic, didn’t face ISIS head on in the beginning because Obama wanted to use ISIS to get rid of al-Assad so that America can achieve its objective w/o actually commit any force on the ground.

Well, Obama’s strategy didn’t work: 1. al-Assad Is still in power,
2. ISIS got stronger because they took over American weapons left behind by the fleeing Iraqi soldiers, 3. hundreds of thousands of innocent people got killed by American drones and fighter jets,
4. Europe got more immigrants thanit can handle, and
5. Russia’s Putin got a perfect excuse To send in Russian tanks, fighter jets, ground troops and Naval vessels.
6. Even China’s air carrier got a chance to practice its war fighting plans.

What does Obama have to say at UN other than admiting defeat? Well, he said that US is no longer the super power of the past years and begged other nations in the world to help the U.S. because America can’t do everything by itself anymore.

Are you surprised? You shouldn’t be.

美國已經快是昨日黃花,好景不長了。

First Single Aisle, now。。。。。 September 21, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics.
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First, Airbus’s A-320 and Boeing’s 757 will soon have a much needed competition in the single aisle aircraft market from China’s Comac ARJ21 Xiangfeng 翔鳳.

COMAC ARJ21

COMAC ARJ21

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Shimin Guhttp://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=6998514&nseq=726

For your information, below is an estimate on the market shares of various players in the world. This estimate is four years old and impact of ARJ21 isn’t included in the estimate.

Slide3

With ARJ21 is about to make delivery, Airbus’s A-380 and Boeing’s 747 will have a new competitor in this lucrative airspace, probably in 5 to 10 years.

Joint development by China and Russia in wide-body aircraft.

Joint development by China and Russia in wide-body aircraft.

Source: Yahoo Finance.

 

China knows that it doesn’t have the technological know-how now to develop this aircraft by itself. Working with Russia is a logical step to take strategically and economically. This move makes sense for Russia too because it desperately wants to move away from the commodity (reads oil) dominant economy too.

Did Obama’s animosity toward Putin in any way accelerate the joint development?

I wonder what’s the next target for China to compete in the commercial landscape: selling cars in the USA and Europe?

 

Russia, Saudi, China and Renminbi July 11, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Energy, Global Affair, Middle East, Oil, Putin.
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For years, Saudi has been the largest oil exporter to China averaging about 20% of China’s total import. Things got a bit unsettling for Saudi since 2014 when Saudi’s export to China dropped to 16%. The bottom fell out for Saudi in 2015 when Saudi lost that number one position to Russia.

2015-06-24   Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia as largest supplier of oil to China

Source: The Guardian

Slide2

So what have happened from 2013 to May 2015?

In 2013, Rosneft, Russia’s de facto national oil company, signed an $85 billion 10 year deal with China’s Sinopec to deliver 100 million tonnes of crude over 10 years.

Rosneft then overdid itself by singing an absolutely unprecedented deal worth $270 billion which would over the years double Russia’s oil export to China. Rosneft would get a $70 billion pre-payment from China too.

In return, China would get a steady supply of crude oil and the deal will be consummated not in U.S. dollar but in Renminbi 人民幣.

China could cut its oil import from Angola but it didn’t. Russia’s gain became Saudi’s loss. Why?

Is China sending a message to Saudi: I’ll cut oil import from Angola and keep buying your oil if you agree to take Renminbi.

I am sure the discussion is going on behind closed doors and I am sure that America is not invited.

I know that this is too big a risk for Saudi’s to take right now because Saudi has been tied closely with the U.S. after 1973 oil embargo.

But, who knows, it may happen some time.

One thing at a time.

Didn’t Saudi keep its oil productions purposely high to maintain its share of oil export in the world? And who got killed in the propose?

None other than many oil producers in the U.S. and the high paying jobs in North Dakota and Texas.

Be patient. The U.S. wants to get Iran off the sanction list while promising Iran a free hand to develop nuclear weapons after 15 years. In exchange, Iran can export its oil without restrictions.

Last time I checked, China also bought a significant amount of oil from Iran too and it is likely that this transaction is also paid by Renminbi also.

What is Putin up to this time? July 6, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Energy, Global Affair, Middle East, Obama, Oil, Putin.
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What is Putin up to this time?

The names of Russian president and a Saudi Prince are two names which usually won’t show up in the same sentence. But there is always a first. In fact, it wasn’t any Saudi prince; it was the Deputy Crown Prince and Minister of Defense Mohammed bin Salman who is the 29-year old son of the current Saudi ruler: King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud Salman. Crown Prince bin Salman visited St. Petersburg in mid-June and signed several agreements with Putin in several key strategic areas: global oil market, investments, space program, nuclear energy, nuclear technology, Syria and war in Yemen.

Questions:

  • What prompted the two countries to talk in the first place?
  • What is Putin up to talking to the Crown Prince of the Saudi Kingdom?
  • What Putin intends to do with the Saudi’s on oil projects in October of 2015 when they will form a working group to work on projects? Mind you that Crown Prince bin Salman is the chief of Saudi’s oil and gas industry too.
  • Did they talk about trading oil on the world market in currencies other than the U.S. dollar?
  • Russia and Saudi, the two largest oil producers in the world for decades, are discussing matters on world oil market. Did Saudi do this against the wish or demand of the U. S.?
  • Is Saudi interested in developing its own space program?
  • Why wasn’t Saudis talking to the U.S.; i.e., GE, on nuclear technology?
  • Does Saudi’s nuclear program have a long term military component which is aimed at Iran’s apparent successful launch of its own nuclear weapons?
  • Is Saudi still a friend of the U.S. when Iran is closing in on a new deal with the U.S. and other nations?
  • Does Crown Prince bin Salman’s visit to Russia signal the end of the pro-U.S. stance of the oil kingdom?
  • Was Ukraine on the agenda?

Obama, with EU’s support, has forced Putin’s hand and forced Russia to cooperate with China. Putin is doing more now and is trying to open a new market in the Middle East.

Obama has effectively abandoned the Middle East and decided to leave the mess in the Middle East to nations in the region. Additionally, Obama has been trying to be friends with Iran and is trying to remove embargo against Iran after the nuclear talk.

I heard that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

I guess it goes without saying that the friend (U.S.) of my enemy (Iran) is my (Saudi) enemy.

No matter what happens between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the visit by Crown Prince bin Salman was a “game change” in the balance of the world power. There is simply no other way to describe it.

Is Obama worried?

I don’t think so. He is trying to live like a king during his remaining terms without major f*** up.

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