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And above all a bellicose and unpredictable Trump September 8, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Islam, Japan, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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The statement below by Jens Stoltenberg, the head of NATO, is true but Stoltenberg should have added bellicose Trump to the mix too.

But, Jens Soltenberg fogot to mention that the U.S., Russia, Israel, India, Parkistan and China, among others, have thousands of nuclear warheads pointing to each other at all times.

That’s a real perliferation of weapons of mass destruction indeed.

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Trump is scared  May 12, 2017

Posted by hslu in Russia, Trump.
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May be it was the only reason he fired Comey.

I guess that since Comey won’t pledge loyalty to Trump, Trump has no other choice but to get rid of this no use grandstander and showboat.

Well, at least he was honest about how he felt about Comey. Maybe Trump has something to hide and Comey knew it.

But, please, will someone in the WH tell Trump to shut up because everything he said will one day, if necessary, be used to against him in the court of law?

The Trump saga just won’t end. When will Trump start acting like a president? He can’t run the WH like he has been doing since 1/20/2017, can he?

May be Trump is having a good time. You’ll never know.

U.S. government is as corrupted as many other countries in the world March 5, 2017

Posted by hslu in Russia, US Government.
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http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/03/03/peter-schweizer-trump-vs-clintons-russia-ties-guess-who-always-got-free-pass.html

Greedy Clintons.

Nation building or destruction? September 30, 2015

Posted by hslu in Cold War, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Obama, Putin.
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America wants Syria’s al-Assad out of power because al-Assad is a friend of Iran.

America, under Obama’s twist logic, didn’t face ISIS head on in the beginning because Obama wanted to use ISIS to get rid of al-Assad so that America can achieve its objective w/o actually commit any force on the ground.

Well, Obama’s strategy didn’t work: 1. al-Assad Is still in power,
2. ISIS got stronger because they took over American weapons left behind by the fleeing Iraqi soldiers, 3. hundreds of thousands of innocent people got killed by American drones and fighter jets,
4. Europe got more immigrants thanit can handle, and
5. Russia’s Putin got a perfect excuse To send in Russian tanks, fighter jets, ground troops and Naval vessels.
6. Even China’s air carrier got a chance to practice its war fighting plans.

What does Obama have to say at UN other than admiting defeat? Well, he said that US is no longer the super power of the past years and begged other nations in the world to help the U.S. because America can’t do everything by itself anymore.

Are you surprised? You shouldn’t be.

美國已經快是昨日黃花,好景不長了。

First Single Aisle, now。。。。。 September 21, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics.
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First, Airbus’s A-320 and Boeing’s 757 will soon have a much needed competition in the single aisle aircraft market from China’s Comac ARJ21 Xiangfeng 翔鳳.

COMAC ARJ21

COMAC ARJ21

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Shimin Guhttp://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=6998514&nseq=726

For your information, below is an estimate on the market shares of various players in the world. This estimate is four years old and impact of ARJ21 isn’t included in the estimate.

Slide3

With ARJ21 is about to make delivery, Airbus’s A-380 and Boeing’s 747 will have a new competitor in this lucrative airspace, probably in 5 to 10 years.

Joint development by China and Russia in wide-body aircraft.

Joint development by China and Russia in wide-body aircraft.

Source: Yahoo Finance.

 

China knows that it doesn’t have the technological know-how now to develop this aircraft by itself. Working with Russia is a logical step to take strategically and economically. This move makes sense for Russia too because it desperately wants to move away from the commodity (reads oil) dominant economy too.

Did Obama’s animosity toward Putin in any way accelerate the joint development?

I wonder what’s the next target for China to compete in the commercial landscape: selling cars in the USA and Europe?

 

Russia, Saudi, China and Renminbi July 11, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Energy, Global Affair, Middle East, Oil, Putin.
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For years, Saudi has been the largest oil exporter to China averaging about 20% of China’s total import. Things got a bit unsettling for Saudi since 2014 when Saudi’s export to China dropped to 16%. The bottom fell out for Saudi in 2015 when Saudi lost that number one position to Russia.

2015-06-24   Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia as largest supplier of oil to China

Source: The Guardian

Slide2

So what have happened from 2013 to May 2015?

In 2013, Rosneft, Russia’s de facto national oil company, signed an $85 billion 10 year deal with China’s Sinopec to deliver 100 million tonnes of crude over 10 years.

Rosneft then overdid itself by singing an absolutely unprecedented deal worth $270 billion which would over the years double Russia’s oil export to China. Rosneft would get a $70 billion pre-payment from China too.

In return, China would get a steady supply of crude oil and the deal will be consummated not in U.S. dollar but in Renminbi 人民幣.

China could cut its oil import from Angola but it didn’t. Russia’s gain became Saudi’s loss. Why?

Is China sending a message to Saudi: I’ll cut oil import from Angola and keep buying your oil if you agree to take Renminbi.

I am sure the discussion is going on behind closed doors and I am sure that America is not invited.

I know that this is too big a risk for Saudi’s to take right now because Saudi has been tied closely with the U.S. after 1973 oil embargo.

But, who knows, it may happen some time.

One thing at a time.

Didn’t Saudi keep its oil productions purposely high to maintain its share of oil export in the world? And who got killed in the propose?

None other than many oil producers in the U.S. and the high paying jobs in North Dakota and Texas.

Be patient. The U.S. wants to get Iran off the sanction list while promising Iran a free hand to develop nuclear weapons after 15 years. In exchange, Iran can export its oil without restrictions.

Last time I checked, China also bought a significant amount of oil from Iran too and it is likely that this transaction is also paid by Renminbi also.

What is Putin up to this time? July 6, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Energy, Global Affair, Middle East, Obama, Oil, Putin.
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What is Putin up to this time?

The names of Russian president and a Saudi Prince are two names which usually won’t show up in the same sentence. But there is always a first. In fact, it wasn’t any Saudi prince; it was the Deputy Crown Prince and Minister of Defense Mohammed bin Salman who is the 29-year old son of the current Saudi ruler: King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud Salman. Crown Prince bin Salman visited St. Petersburg in mid-June and signed several agreements with Putin in several key strategic areas: global oil market, investments, space program, nuclear energy, nuclear technology, Syria and war in Yemen.

Questions:

  • What prompted the two countries to talk in the first place?
  • What is Putin up to talking to the Crown Prince of the Saudi Kingdom?
  • What Putin intends to do with the Saudi’s on oil projects in October of 2015 when they will form a working group to work on projects? Mind you that Crown Prince bin Salman is the chief of Saudi’s oil and gas industry too.
  • Did they talk about trading oil on the world market in currencies other than the U.S. dollar?
  • Russia and Saudi, the two largest oil producers in the world for decades, are discussing matters on world oil market. Did Saudi do this against the wish or demand of the U. S.?
  • Is Saudi interested in developing its own space program?
  • Why wasn’t Saudis talking to the U.S.; i.e., GE, on nuclear technology?
  • Does Saudi’s nuclear program have a long term military component which is aimed at Iran’s apparent successful launch of its own nuclear weapons?
  • Is Saudi still a friend of the U.S. when Iran is closing in on a new deal with the U.S. and other nations?
  • Does Crown Prince bin Salman’s visit to Russia signal the end of the pro-U.S. stance of the oil kingdom?
  • Was Ukraine on the agenda?

Obama, with EU’s support, has forced Putin’s hand and forced Russia to cooperate with China. Putin is doing more now and is trying to open a new market in the Middle East.

Obama has effectively abandoned the Middle East and decided to leave the mess in the Middle East to nations in the region. Additionally, Obama has been trying to be friends with Iran and is trying to remove embargo against Iran after the nuclear talk.

I heard that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

I guess it goes without saying that the friend (U.S.) of my enemy (Iran) is my (Saudi) enemy.

No matter what happens between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the visit by Crown Prince bin Salman was a “game change” in the balance of the world power. There is simply no other way to describe it.

Is Obama worried?

I don’t think so. He is trying to live like a king during his remaining terms without major f*** up.

Saudi won’t. UAE won’t. Russia won’t. Hmmm…, the US? November 26, 2014

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Energy, Global Affair, Middle East, Oil, Politics.
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Maybe US should.

Imaging, please, for just one nano-second of a press conference announcement from DOE in Washington, DC:

EOG, WLL, CXO, SRE, CLR, XOM, CVX, PXD and COP have agreed that they will cut their U.S. production by 2 million barrels per day starting January 1, 2015.

What will that do to the oil price and stocks of foreign oil companies?

Nah. It won’t happen.

But, aren’t some of them the ‘始作俑者’ of oil price decline by 30+% since June?

The best way to achieve a stable oil price is every oil producing country cut its oil production by about 2.5% because there is 2 million barrels of  excessive oil production in the world.

Nah, that won’t happen either.

Every country is in it for itself. The one which carry the biggest stick dictates the outcome.

And we are talking about Saudi. Period.

I talked about America acted like a ‘敗家子’ when it comes to producing shale oil without any consideration of long term national security in an earlier post on my blog.

image

Source: Businesd Insider.

Now, it is likely that Saudi will let the crude oil market to stablize itself.

With the total production costs of American shale oil around $60-$80/bbl vs Saudi oil’s $20/bbl, there is no argument here who is the onw with a big stick.

Imaging for a minute now, what if Saudi let oil price drops to $60/bbl and keep it for 2 years.

Of course, there is a consparicy that White House told Saudi to keep oil production up so that Russia will be weakened as a new run of cold war begins to take shape.

Well, your guess is as good as mine on this.

Do you know who is the biggest beneficiary on this?

Yes, you guessed. It is China.

China gets to import cheaper oil and it will save ‘BIG MONEY’ because it is the largest oil importer in the world. China will buy even more oil than its economy requires because China is building its strategic oil reserve from the current 10 day supply, or about 91 million barrels, to about 90 days of net import. China still has a long way to go so that it will take the opportunity to ‘fill it up’ with cheap oil.

Americans will benefit because we will keep more money in our pockets instead of sending it into oil producing countries. But, the only bright spot of the US economy, shale oil productions, drilling and oil transportation by rail will suffer. CAPEX spending will be cut. Marginal project will be delayed or eliminated. Finally, pink slips will fly. ‘敗家子’ will be broke again. Oil import to the US will rise.

Crude oil market will finally stablize again.

Big stick has spoken.

We will see what comes down after November 29.

It’s a capitulation alright! September 16, 2014

Posted by hslu in China, Global Affair, Japan, Military, Politics, Putin.
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Petro Poroshenko, the president of Ukraine, waved a white flag, gave in to Putin’s demand and let rebels in Eastern Ukraine control their own region. We might call this ‘The Treaty of Donetsk and Luhansk.’

image

Source: BBC mobile site.

It is a capitulation anyway you slice it: for Petro Proshenko, that’s.

When Ukraine soldiers ‘retreated’ in large scale from the battlefield in Eastern Ukraine against Russia-backed rebels, Petro was, all of a sudden, out of option except going back to the negotiation table.

Weak country has no diplomacy. Period.

Putin probably told Petro when they met behind closed doors that Russia would help Petro staying in power but Petro had to give up the Eastern portion of the country.

Capitulation! Surrender! Waving a white flag! The outcome is the same.

Take the deal while you still can, Petro because American won’t help you; EU won’t help you and UK won’t help you either. Petro also knows that all sanctions in the world won’t stop Putin at getting what he wants.

China was in the same situation more than a century ago. There was nothing China could do back then just like Ukraine is now except giving up territory for temperary relief.

這叫 ‘賠了夫人又折兵。割地賠款息事寧人也.’

Will stock markets drop soon? August 13, 2014

Posted by hslu in Cold War, Economics, Energy, Global Affair, Gold, Military, Obama, Oil, Politics, Putin, stocks.
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Are stock markets in denial? Will conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, or more fittingly Russia and the US or Putin and Obama, bring the five-year old bull market down?

The reason for the bear case is simple: Russia may engage Ukraine army or Kiev hard-right defenders militarily UNEXPECTEDLY.

Donetsk is an important city in Ukraine and the state where Donetsk is the capital is an industrial center of Ukraine. It is historically connected to Russia not Europe. Donetsk is an important industrial city with a million people. 750,000 have fled to Russia (an hour or so away from Russian border) and 150,000 have fled to somewhere else. The city is heavily damaged from Ukraine’s continuous bombing and it is essentially a ghost town now. Yet we don’t see any picture on American TV but the situation is widely reported in Europe and Russia.

I am sure you know why the killing and shelling are not front and center in Americans’ living room.

But that is not what the stock market cares about and we need to find out what’s going happen to the stock market if something does go wrong. We need to know what is going to happen when Russian’s 280 humanitarian trucks carrying relief material to Donetsk where pro-Russian fighters are still holding up against the hard right fighters (not Ukraine army.) There is no water. There is no electricity. There is no food. There is no essential supply. There are killings and dead people but Kiev doesn’t want the west to find out.

Russia wanted to send in supplies for people who are still in the city and those 1,500 pro-Russia fighters. Government in Kiev don’t want them in Ukraine territory.

Now, we have a problem in a day or two especially when Putin goes to Crimea tomorrow (Thursday.)

These are what the stock market is worrying about:

What does Petro of Ukraine want to do? What message he gets from the US/Obama? Is Obama using Ukraine as a pawn to send a message to Putin? Is Obama’s recent insults to Russia/Russian male/Putin a prelude of war? Does Obama believe Putin will eventually back down in the face of all powerful American military might? Is Biden, who is said to have been given the job to handle the Ukraine crisis by Obama, mad? What is the exit plan for Obama/America? What outcome will America accept in the end? How far Obama will support Kiev?

We don’t know.

What will Putin do? Why is Putin going to Crimea? What if the trucks are stopped by Kiev/Ukraine at the boarder manned by the Red Cross? What if the pro-Ukraine force (not Ukraine army) starts shooting at the trucks? Why doesn’t Kiev want the trucks in? Are they afraid that the real picture of great destruction of Donetsk is revealed by the west? Will Putin send in fighter jets? Will Putin engage Russian military with Kiev? Will Putin shut in gas to Ukraine and Europe? Will Russia shut in oil supply to Ukraine and Europe? What if Kiev blocks the transportation of nat gas and oil to some European ciuntries some of which have to go through Ukraine?

The key question is: Will Putin announce this Thursday that Russia will send in Russian army if Kiev and Obama do not back down?

What’s important for us low life investors do?

Do we wait for the announcement from Putin? Do we believe that Obama has had enough of Putin’s humiliation in the past and he has drawn a red line on Ukraine. As such, will Obama not back down this time even risking a fight with Putin’s Russian army?

No wonder the stock market is in a holding pattern this last couple of days. EU will sink into recession if this conflict escalates. Russia’s economy will shrink. Oil will soar. Stock will tank.

So, what is the end game llike?

Cold war between Russia and US has now officially entered into a new chapter.

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