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You should read this December 31, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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What Tillerson Won’t Admit: The U.S. Has No Leverage https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-28/what-tillerson-won-t-admit-the-u-s-has-no-leverage

It goes to show how little Tillerson and Trump can do in a world where the U.S. has already lost its influence.

With Russia and China forming an economic and military alliance, with Europe firmly against Trumo’s policies, the glory days of American supremacy are over.

A new world order with China in the dominant position has emerged.

Care to count how many friends America still have these days?

Fewer than 10?

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德國之聲中文網:川普向北京跪拜 December 28, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Muslim, One Belt One Road, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 一帶一路, 中國.
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評論:亞洲不需要川普 | 時事評論 | DW | 23.12.2017

http://m.dw.com/zh/%E8%AF%84%E8%AE%BA%E4%BA%9A%E6%B4%B2%E4%B8%8D%E9%9C%80%E8%A6%81%E7%89%B9%E6%9C%97%E6%99%AE/a-41906965?&zhongwen=trad

Pretty harsh language from a German to America’s tweeter-in-chief, isn’t it?

But, it was the way it has been for Trump. You might call him 吃軟怕硬,紙老虎,協商家,老朽,dotard。

The UN 9 December 26, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Global Affair, Middle East, Religion, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Nine countries united to vote against a U.N. resolution condemning Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and move the U.S. Embassy there from Tel Aviv.

Here are the nine:

  1. USA
  2. Israel 
  3. Micronesia
  4. Nauru
  5. Togo and Tonga 
  6. Palau
  7. The Marshall Islands
  8. Guatemala
  9. Honduras

There you have it. These seven countries knelt under the wrath of American power but they should continue to receive handouts from the U.S. BTW, have you ever heard of Nauru or Palau? I certainly don’t.

35 countries voted abstain which in essence were YES votes. If they thought Trump has done the right thing, they would have voted NO like UN9 did. Among them were Canada, Australia, Mexico, Rwanda and Uganda. Trump probably won’t ask Mexico to pay for the wall after Mexico’s vote. Canada will continue export its heavy oil to the U.S. I am not sure what the U.S. said to Uganda and Rwanda which made them not follow the majority’s action.

Haley’s verbal threat before the vote, ‘we’ll be taking names’, finally showed what America really is to the world: a bully, a vengeful weasel and an imperious thug.

Well, if the U.S. wants to cut off foreign aids to these countries, so be it. China probably will be more than happy to take up the slack.

Of course, not a single Muslim country voted with the U.S. and Trump’s move simply will fan more hatreds from muslims against the U.S. and Israel. 

What has Trump gained from this move other than fulfiled a campaigm promise to a small group of people? 

But, at what price will America and American people pay for this modern day crusade against the muslims? 

It is obvious that American foreign policy has incite a long strings of hostile moves and suicide attacks against American interests in the U.S. and abroad since the 1993 World Trade Center truck bombing and the 2001 9-11 suicide attacks.

Will we see more attacks from the Muslims against the U.S. because Trump’s move is a perfect material for future recuitment by al-qaeda and other Islamic groups.

Gone are the horses, swords, Shamshirs, halberds, bows, crossbows, arrows and spears. Todays, the weapons of choice are drones, fighter jets, Hellfire missiles, PGMs, IEDs and suicide bombs jackets. 

One thing is for sure with Trump’s decision to officially recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the war between Muslims and the U.S. will continue and intensify.

It may last another thousand years.




Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia, Iran and oil December 15, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 石油, 美國, Energy, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Oil, Putin, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Mohammed bin Salman’s ill-advised ventures have weakened Saudi Arabia’s position in the world

http://flip.it/93wubN

The failed policies of Mohammed bin Salman, the growing influence of Iran and the formation of Shia cresent are the primary reason that WTI is trading above $55 a barrel and Brent crude at $63 a barrel. A 20% war premium has been added to the price of crude oil contracts since November. It has gained more than 30% since the low achieved in late June of this year.

Saudi Arabia has been fighting a proxy war with Iran via Yemen for 2 years with little but many dead Yemenis to show for. Saudi’s oil infrastructure is now under external threat from Yemen which will keep the price of Brent crude at an elevated level. 

US shale oil production is expected to rise because WTI is trading at a few dollars below $60/barrel. However, since US exports very little of its oil, the spread between WTI and Brent crude will widen.

Source: CNBC

Source: CNBC

With WTI comfortably trading above $45 a barrel, roughly the average price of WTI for the past three years, oil company stocks should see a nice rebound in 2018. If the tension between Saudi and Iran flares up further, oil companies should see more upside too. 

With an young and inexperienced prince in Rydah colluding with a dotard and impulsive Trump in the WH, giant mistakes will continue to happen.

It is bad for the world.

It is good for China and it will be great for the US oil companies.

Putin is smiling too.

Terrain Denial Sorties November 29, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Economics, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Taxes, U.S. Foreign Policy, US Government.
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Have you heard of this? 

Probably not. Read on to find out more.

B-52s Are Dropping Hundreds of Dumb Bombs in Afghanistan to Literally Shape the Terrain

http://flip.it/fX0A6_

This is what U.S. is doing in Afghanistan. Basically it is a very expensive remote landscaping operation w/o using any Latinos. No wonder Trump and Republicans want more money for defense. 

Latinos can be picked up at Home Depot parking lot to do odd jobs for you at $120/day. These 500-lb bombs cost $25,00+ a piece.

Source: Quora

Here are the numbers for FY2018 defense budget:

1.   The base budget for DoD is $574.5 billion. 

2.   The Overseas Contingency Operations budget, a fancy name for fighting the ISIS, is $64.6 billion.

3.   Other agencies related to the protection of the nation is $173 billion: VA, the State Dept., Homeland security, FBI and the National Nuclear Security Administration, etc.

4.   $12 billion in OCO funds for the Homeland Security to fight ISIS.

Total for defense related budget: $824.6 billion. It is the second largest spending item after Social Security which costs tax payers ~$1 trillion.


War With Iran and “window of opportunity” November 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Middle East, Military, Muslim, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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In 1987, a Rogue U.S. Navy Admiral Schemed for War With Iran

http://flip.it/CF.F8L

I wonder what other “window of opportunities” American military has been or is contemplating with?

A tactic nuclear war with North Korea, Russia, China or Iran?

With a story like this, it goes a long way to show the entire world that America is really dangerous in dealing with other nations in the world. 

Basically, its mentality is “It is my way or highway.”

The message to the world is simply this: “Arm yourself to defend your country or be slaughtered by the United States of America when you are least expected.”

Trump and Mohammed bin Salman November 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in 石油, 美國, Energy, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Muslim, Obama, Taiwan, Taxes, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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Trump has unleashed the Saudi Arabia we always wanted — and feared

http://flip.it/nNbGLY

Trump’s first foreign trip after his inauguration was to Saudi Arabia. 

Why?

What did his advisors tell him? 

What would he gain by talking to Mohammed bin Salman other than undo what Obama did to the Middle East before him?

Did he really think that he can make his mark in history with peace agreements between the enemies in the Middle East?

Did he try to lend legitimacy to a young and untested Saudi prince who requested the meeting in the first place?

Did Trump believe that Saudi Arabia might be on the cusp of forming an alliance with Russia to dominate the world oil market?

Did Trump want to tell the prince in person that America will no longer insert itself in any future Middle East conflict because Saudi is a big boy who should handle itself like a grown man instead of hiding behind the U.S.?

Did Trump just want to be bold,  unpredictable and keep people guessing?

Or mabe Trump want to check out Saudi’s golden toilet?

Petro renminbi? November 14, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 石油, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Middle East, Oil, Russia, U.S. dollar, 中國.
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Economist Jim O’Neill explains how the dollar will lose its ‘kingpin’ status – https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/14/economist-jim-oneill-explains-how-the-dollar-will-lose-its-kingpin-status.html

It will happen and it will take less than ten years as speculated by O’neill.

One country at a time. Iran. Russia. Chinese are patient and methodical. They can wait. It is a decadeclong project for China and it started the effort a few years back already.

Saudi Arabia is the big fish but America will fight hard to keep the dollar as the trading currency for crude oil.

It will be futile for the U.S. as China is already the largest oil importer in the world. The culpit is none other than the shale oil American private companies are producing now for their short term gains. Without the growing domestic shale oil production, U.S. will still be the largest oil importer in the world. As such, there is no way that petro-dollar’s kingpin position can be challenged any time soon. 

這就是因,這就是果。有因,就有果。真有意思。

走投無路只有濫竽充數了? November 14, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Computer, Congress, 美國, Democracy, Economics, Islam, Middle East, Military, Obama, Politics, Taiwan, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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看來美國的募兵制已經走到盡頭了。兵不夠,烏七八糟的人都只有收下了。

大部分的美國大兵參軍,不是因為他要保護美國的國家利益,不是因為他要保護美國自由民主的理想或是要保護美國的領土完整,他們這些人參軍,是因為他們沒有辦法在社會上生存,去當兵至少還有一口飯吃吃。

美國只要是經濟不好,失業率高,募兵就沒有問題。這些人找不到事,就只有參加軍隊,混一口飯吃。如果經濟好,市場上需要勞工,就募不到兵。現在就是經濟好,找不到新兵的時候。

不過,美國在中東的兩次戰爭,也把美國的年輕人打怕了。布希,噢巴馬和川普相繼的送他們去阿富汗,伊拉克,敘利亞和 Niger,可是他們不知道為什麼打仗,不知道為什麼去死,不知道為誰的利益而戰。有些人在阿富汗打了十幾年的戰,還不知道是為了美國人打還是為了阿富汗人打。

你說,這是不是有點荒唐?不過,這就是美國的外交政策。七八十年了,都是這樣。

嗯,好像台灣也有這種找不到兵的問題。不過,台灣有點不一樣。台灣現在是徵兵制。只要男生一到十八歲,就要當兵。如今,兵有沒有什麼好當的。打中國打不過,要那麽多兵幹什麼?所以台灣現在當兵,可以去政府機關坐辦公桌,朝九晚五的,幾個月就可以了。還有,台灣要武器,買不起。想要買,美國又不買。台灣的年輕人小確幸過的遐逸的很,週末吃個海鮮吃到飽,放長假去日本關西走兩天,要他們出去曬曬太陽,做個勞力工都不願意,怎麼會去當兵呢?再說,政府給當兵的錢不夠,多給政府又沒錢,你說這不是兩難嗎?

The U.S., Iraq, the Kurds and Iran October 24, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Democracy, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Obama, U.S. Foreign Policy, 民主.
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The United Stated has turned Iraq upside down and then shoveled the country America built into the arms of Iran.
Nice job.

The U.S. insisted that Iraq’s Saddam Hussein had WMD.

The U.S. invaded Iraq and killed Saddam Hussein. Some speculated that Hussein got himself eliminated because he traded Iraqi oil for Euro instead of the USD. The U.S. couldn’t tolerate that.

The U.S. dismantled the Iraqi army and sent all Hussein’s soldiers home.

The U.S. built a new Iraq, selected Al-Maliki the  leader of the new government, gave him a ton of American tax money and fooled the Iraqi people to vote him in as Iraq’s first prime minister.

The U.S. called the outcome the will of the Iraqi people, patted itself on the back and called it a shinning example of democracy for all Muslim countries to see.

The U.S. claimed that the democratic Iraq a trusted friend in the all important Middle East region.

The U.S. believed that the new, pro-America Iraqi government established a geopolitical equilibrium between Iran and Iraq.

The U.S. military forces were completely kicked out of Iraq by the democratic Iraqi government America built. Obama called it the will of the American people. The withdraw of American soldiers helped the insurgence of ISIS.

The U.S. wanted to get rid of Bashar al-Assad of Syria and formed a pro-America government but couldn’t decide whom to support.

The U.S. created a power vacuum in Syria, Putin saw the opportunity and established a military base in Syria. Russia has entered the Middle East and popped up al-Assad’s government.

The U.S. president’s (Obama) indecision in Syria allowed ISIS to strengthen which occupied part of Syria and a big chunk of Iraq.

The U.S. decided to go back to Iraq to clean up the mess it left behind. American special forces supplied the Iraqi army with American’s advanced weapons and trained the Iraqi army to use these weapons.

The U.S. supported the Kurdish Peshmerga forces because they knew how to fight the ISIS while Iraqi army ran in panic and fled in their humvees from the battle field.

The U.S. doesn’t want Iraqi Kurds to declare independence because it will make Turkey and Iraq mad at the U.S.

The U.S. couldn’t do anything when people in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq voted in a referendum and declared independence.

The U.S.-equipped Iraqi army decided to get rid of the Kurds and took over the Kirkuk oil field from the Kurds in a matter of two days. The Irancbacked militias helped.

The U.S. asked Iraq to disband the Iraqi militias because the fight against the IS in Iraq was almost over.

The U.S. is ignored by the Iraqi PM who called the Iran-backed militias, called Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisatio,) the “hope of Iraq and the region”.

The U.S. lost trillions of dollars and the lives of thousands of American soldiers for nothing. The Iraqi government America built became an ally of Iran. A new equilibrium has emerged in the Middle East thanks to American’s nations building efforts.

What an irony.

中國人有句話描述這個情形:賠了夫人又折兵。

你又可以說:偷雞不成蝕把米。

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