美元霸權的沒落 December 18, 2022
Posted by hslu in 美國, 習近平, 蘇俄, Renminbi, U.S. dollar, 中國.Tags: 美金, Renminbi, US dollar, 人民幣
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應該沒有人能夠預測1。美元霸權還會維持多久，2。美元的購買力會不會突然下降，還是逐漸喪失價值。
美元從1945年開始到現在已經喪失了93%的購買力，意思就是說，所剩無幾了。我很早就想到這個問題才有接下來的房地產投資的想法。
美國的經濟經過2009金融危機以後的QEs而導致股票，債券和房地產的飛漲，如今它們都要面臨被吐出來的悲慘命運。
媒體上都說割韭菜，其實真正被割韭菜還包括美國的投資者：從Tesla的 Musk，Amazon 的 bezo 到升斗小民的401k，債券價格與投資賬戶。連房子的市值都免不了要被砍一刀。
這個新的升息週期會很長，過去12年累積的過度要經過一段時間才能回到均線。因為在過去的12年之內利息被降低到史無前例的程度。
過去的60/40模式已經被打破，因為40%的債券市值也跟著利息上漲而下降。它不再起到調節的作用。
而現在的美國比2009年的美國可以說是千瘡百孔，無一是處。光是SS的COLA就要增加$124billion 聯邦赤字。而這$124billion還會反過來增加通膨的壓力。
利率被聯准會增加，美國政府的利息支出也會跟著增加。利息增加，經濟衰退，失業率上升，公司稅，收入稅都會降低。美國聯邦赤字更大。
在此同時美國還要面對蘇俄繼續攻打烏克蘭，中東阿拉伯產油國家與中國交好，中國繼續崛起，歐洲一敗塗地，美元需求降低，美國國防支出和社會福利支出增加，國內赤字增加，非法移民大幅度的進入美國。一眼望去，美國沒有任何亮點可以給美國人任何安慰。
歷史上帝國的衰敗都從債臺高築開始。1990年的日本也不例外。美國也會步入日本的後塵。
歷史是最好的借境，而日本就是一個最好的例子。黑田東彥以為他可以發行無止境的日本來買日本的國債，房屋貸款，公司股票和日本的ETF，進而將日本的利率降低到-0.1%和+0.1%之間。他確實做到了這一點。可是聯准會升息，逼的黑田東彥把利率升高到0.25%。可是黑田付出的代價遠遠不止0.25%要多付的利息。黑田還要全日本人和日本國接受日幣降低40%的命運。
這可能也是美國的命運。至於那幾個契機會導致美金大幅度的貶值，目前恐怕還言之過早。如果要我猜的話，我會說：人民幣真正國際化的那一天就是美國帝國主義熄燈真正的的開始。在此之前，中國主導的BRICS，上合組織，SWIFT的替代系統，上海期貨交易所，全都會一一實現。這些都會在人民幣尚未國際化以前就會到位。而中國最後宣佈人民幣國際化就會成為美金棺材的最後一根釘子。
十年吧？
When the US dollar dies December 18, 2022
Posted by hslu in China, 石油, 美國, 習近平, Economics, Middle East, Military, Oil, Putin, Renminbi, Russia, U.S. dollar, 中國.Tags: China, Putin, Renminbi, US, US dollar
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When the US dollar dies
Many countries have worked on de-dollarization on the edges for years because their economies are at risk of America’s economic and fiscal policies, Federal Reserve’s policy on interest rate and America’s repeatedly weaponization of US financial system to sanction and punish other countries at will. De-dollarization increasingly becomes necessary for these countries simply to survive.
But it was Putin, who on March 31, 2022 decided to sell Russia natural gas in Rubles, actually ushered in the unprecedented and effective de-dollarization movement. Putin was driven over the edge by Biden’s policies: sanction on Russia’s economy, seizing Russia’s foreign assets and preventing Russia from using SWIFT after the Russia-Ukraine war. China’s rise also gave Russia the necessary cover to withstand America’s sanctions.
When Xi Jinping met Mohammed bin Salman and many Gulf Arab leaders in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on December 8, 2022, de-dollarization was front and center in many leaders’ minds. Many Arab oil producing nations are discontented with the US because America has weaponized the US dollar, used its financing system to punish other countries and threatened to expose OPEC members to American antitrust lawsuits. In addition, Biden seized Russia’s assets today. It could be these countries’ dollar-based assets some other day.
But it was obvious that Mohammed bin Salman did not want to risk certain America backlash to trade Saudi oil for Yuan even though Biden has strained his relationship with MBS over human rights, oil production policy and Saudi’s support of Putin. By the end of Xi Jinping’s visit, Yuan for Saudi oil was not formerly announced probably because Saudi was pressured by the US not to cross America’s red line. Xi Jinping nevertheless, aside from signing 34 energy contracts with Arab nations, called for the use of Shanghai Petroleum and National Gas Exchange as a platform to carry out yuan settlements of oil and gas trades. The SPNGE has already proven itself to be a player in oil trades because US$2.48 trillion international crude oil futures contracts have been turn-overed in the 12 months since its launch in March 2018. In addition, Xi Jinping proposed deep cooperation with Arab nations in finance, investment, innovation, new technologies, aerospace, language and cultures in the next three to five years. For now, suffice it to say that dollar’s hegemony is still intact but de-dollarization has begun albeit at a slow and gradual pace.
Let’s look at what’s likely to happen if the US dollar slowly loses its dominance and eventually stops being the reserve currency of the world.
• Demand of US dollar will drop. World trade settled in US dollar, ~60% now, will decrease. World-wide US dollar-based debt issuance, ~50% now, will drop. Foreign central banks will reduce their US dollars holdings, currently at 59% with Euros at 24%, will drop too.
• The value of the US dollar will decline because it will lose its purchasing power just like Japanese yen is experiencing now. Americans’ living standard will decrease and America will be weakened going forward.
• Anything and everything valued in the US dollar; cash, bank deposits, US stocks, US bonds, pensions, 401(k)s and your houses will lose value. You net worth will drop.
• Commodities, like grains, oil, gas, metals and other tangible assets, will soar in value.
• The US Treasury will continue to issue Treasuries to fund the US government. Since the demand of US Treasuries will drop, any excess US dollar will return to the US which is inflationary. Inflation will rise because foreign goods become more expensive.
• Less demand of the US Treasuries will drive up their yields. Interest rates on mortgage loans, business loans, car loans, student loans, and home equity loans will go up too. American companies’ competitiveness will decline over time.
• American companies have to exchange their US dollars into the new trading currency to purchase foreign goods. US dollar’s exchange rate will be set by the market depending on the strength of America’s economy and its fiscal and currency policies.
• With fewer foreigner buyers of US Treasuries, the Fed has no option but to be the largest buyer and owner of the US Treasury. Of course, the Fed will try to hold the interest rate low to avoid unsustainable interest payments by the US government. However, lower yield will further reduce foreigners’ willingness to buy the US Treasuries.
All these being said, I would argue that China doesn’t want Yuan to be the sole global reserve currency because it carries a lot of risks and is super inflationary. The other issue is that Renminbi is simply not ready to replace the US dollar. The dominance of the US dollar is not easy to replace or replicate.
Therefore, the US dollar will remain to be the global reserve currency until a new one is developed and trusted by other countries. The new reserve currency might be a bucket of other currencies or a synthetic digital currency issued by various central banks with or without America’s Federal Reserve Bank. The other possibility is that the world can function with two or three reserve currencies: US dollar for America and its allies, Euro for EU countries and the third one for China and other like-minds anti-US countries.
Since this is a slow-moving process, it is not too late to speculate how one can benefit from a falling dollar.
1. Buy multinational companies such as McDonald’s and Procter & Gamble. The more foreigners eat Big Macs and buy products from PG, the better these companies’ bottom lines look. Cheaper US dollar could invite foreign buyers for US companies too. One good example was the acquisition of Anheuser-Busch’s by InBev in 2008.
2. Invest in non-US Dollar based bonds from the foreign countries, such as CBON, VanEck China Bond ETF (CBON), currently yielding 3.24%.
3. Invest in physical gold and silver and commodity related ETFs, such as CORN, SOYB. WEAT and OIL. Real estate properties have to be included in your portfolio too.
4. Another one is America’s liquified natural gas exporters such as LNG which will benefit from a weaker dollar too.
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Venezuela, Chevron formally sign oil contracts in Caracas | Reuters December 10, 2022
Posted by hslu in 石油, 美國, Energy, 蘇俄, Oil, U.S. Foreign Policy.Tags: Chevron, Orinoco heavy oil Belt, US refineries, US shale oil, Venezuela
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Why would any western oil company want to do business with the Venezuelean government?
Yes, Venezuela has the largest oil reserve in the world, 303.8 billion barrels according to the ranking by the World Population Review, but Venezuela also has the habit and reputation to nationalize foreign oil companies’ operations at will.
Venezuela, with its 303.8 billion barrels of reserves, accounts for 17.5% of the total oil reserves in the world. Other countries with signiicant oil reserves are:
#2, Saudi Arabia: 297.5 barrels, (17.2%)
#3, Canada: 168.1 barrels, (9.7%)
#4, Iran: 157.8 barrels, (9.1%)
#5, Iraq: 145.0 barrels, (8.4%)
#6, Russia: 107.8barrels, (6.2%)
Venezuela is also under the threat of severe and long lasting political, trade and economic sanctions by the US because the US has engaged in efforts to bring down the current Venezuelean government under president Nicolas Maduro. That efforts started long before Maduro came into power though. This has been a blatant violation of Venezuela’s sovereignty by the US and it is shameful and disgusting.
Mobil Oil Company’s Venezuela operation was nationalized by the government of Venezuela twice: first time in 1976 resulted in the formation of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company: PDVSA. The second time was in 2007 when Venezuelean government took over ExxonMobil’s assets in the Cerro Negro and La Ceiba heavy oil operations. ExxonMobil sued the government of Venezuela and in 2014 was awarded $1.6 billion in compensation. However that judgement was overturned by the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Manhattan in July 2017 and the rewards were reduced to $188.3 million.
Most recently one of ExxonMobil’s drilling ships it had hired to explore the territories offshore of Guyana was seized by Venezuelean Navy. That dispute is still being worked on by the two parties involved.
Although Chevron, accordingly to this article, has been allowed by the US government to enter Venezuela in a limited basis, I am sure ExxonMobil will think long and hard before working with Venezuela again.
Even though Venezuela has the largest oil reserve in the world, its oil is considered low in quality, high in density, high in sulfur content, difficult to extract and low in commercial value. Canada is in the same situation with its sour, extremely heavy bitumen and heavy oil deposits.
Venezuela used to be a major oil producer in the world.
When Hugo Chavez was the president of Venezuela in February 1999, Venezuela’s oil production was around 3.5 million barrels per day . When Chavez nationalized foreign oil companies’ assets in 2007, Venezuela’s oil company, PDVSA’s (Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.) daily oil production rate was still a respectable 2.25 million barrels.
Then the US sanctioned the Venezuelan governmen and foreign oil companies pulled their operations from Venezuela and PDVSA’s oil production rate declined precipitously to 500,000 barrels per day in 2020, about 1/7 of its peak production. And its infrastructure took a heavy blow due to years of lack of capital investment. Current production from Venezuela has bounced back to about 770,000 barrels per day.
What’s ironic about America’s sanctions against Venezuela is this: America’s refineries need Venezuela’s heavier crude to keep their facilities running smoothly because they have adjusted their facilities over the past several decades to accept heavier crudes from Canada and Venezuela because these sources are reliable, convenient and low in transport costs. Sanctions on Venezuela forced American refineries looking for more expensive oil from other countries with higher costs.
So, what’s going on? Why did Biden change America’s policy on Venezuela?
A few months ago, oil prices was hitting the roof partially because of Biden’s proxy Ukraine war against Putin. Since American people are tired of paying for $5 gas, and the midterm was coming, Biden came to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia to beg for more oil. As expected, Saudi’s MBS refused to do so. Biden had no other choice but to ease the sanctions against Venezuela in exchange for more oil. How humiliating.
Now let’s take a look of America’s domestic oil production and how American foreign policy has been influenced by the ups and downs of America’s oil productions in the past.
America’s “conventional” oil production has dropped steadily since 1970: from 9.64 million barrels a day in 1970 to ~5.6 million barrels a day before shale oil started to play a much prominent role in 2016. Oil imports, about 10 million barrels a day back then, accounted for ~70% of the total US consumptions.
Accordingly, Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter in the world, was the most important ally for the US for the past 50 years. America has its 5th aircraft carrier fleet stationed in Manama, Bahrain to keep the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz open. American foreign policy was centered around the Middle East because America’s life line is tied to that region.
Then came the shale oil revolution of the 2016 and America believed it has been freed from the shackles of the Middle Eastern oil. America thought that it can dominate the world oil market, get rid of oil diplomacy, leave the troubled spot around Israel and MAGA.
All the sudden, Israel was less important to the US. Saudi oil is no longer crucial to America’s national security. Middle Eastern countries can have their problems to themselves. America will let Iran have nuclear weapons and be a counter weight to the Saudi Arabia Sunni alliance. In short, America has oil and Sunni can fight Shea until cows come home. America had enough with the Middle East and the American shale oil revolution allowed the US pivot to Asia.
However, there are several problems with this kind of absurd self sufficient, energy independent foreign policy:
1. Shale oil is expensive to extract: $35-$80 per barrel, vs $10 or less per barrel for the Middle Eastern oil. As a result, US shale oil production is vulnerable to OPEC+ oil production policy.
2. If world oil prices drops below the production costs of America’s shale oil projects for an extended period of time, shale oil production will collapse and America has to go back to import millions of foreign crude oil again.
3. Shale oil by itself can’t be used to refine into gasoline and diesels. They need to be blended using heavier crudes from Canada, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Hence there is a constant threat that America can face a diesel or even gasoline shortage, especially in the Northeast regions of the US.
4. About 3 million barrels of world oil production is wiped out by America’s proxy war against Putin. The results are devastating living conditions in the Europe, staggering world wide inflation, higher shale oil production costs, higher interest rates and a real threat of a global recession.
And in the midst of world wide chaos, the so-called experts of America’s think tanks and Biden all the sudden noticeed that Venezuela is sitting pretty nearby with billions of heavier crude oil ready to be pumped to save America from problems it has created for itself.
Since Saudi Arabia has rejected Biden’s pleads to increase its oil production, the US has no other option but to beg Venezuela to increase its oil production. So, under the terrible economic backdrop in the country and not to humiliate America’s face publicly, Biden allowed Chevron to gingerly walk back to Venezuela, increase its oil productions slowly, called this action a humanitarian operation but vowed to look over Chevron’s shoulder at all times. What a hypocrite America is. Again.
The problems are Venezuela needs billions and billions of capital investments up front, significant increase in manpower, resources, technologies and time to see meaningful increase in its oil productions.
Three years. Maybe. If everything goes according to plan.
But, by that time, most of Venezuela’s oil will probably head to China instead of refineries in Texas City in Texas.
How ironic.
China’s Xi vows to buy more Mideast oil as US focus wanes December 10, 2022
Posted by hslu in 石油, 美國, 習近平, Energy, Middle East, Oil, One Belt One Road, Putin, Renminbi, Russia, U.S. dollar, U.S. Foreign Policy, 中國, 中東.Tags: Biden, China, MBS, natural gas Ruble, Petro renminbi, Petro Yuan, Putin, Saudi Arabia, US dollar hegemony, Xi Jinping
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https://news.yahoo.com/arab-leaders-saudi-arabia-chinese-113336617.html Chinese leader Xi Jinping vowed on Friday to import more oil and natural gas from energy-rich Gulf Arab states while not interfering in their affairs, likely s…
Will the US dollar hegemony be a thing of the past after Xi Jinping concludes his state visit to the Saudi Arabia?
It’s very likely even though it will take some time. It’s only a matter of “when” now.
All of this because of Putin. He started the first move with the natural gas Ruble and he alone accelerated the pace of the US dollar’s demise. China helped Putin by standing behind him with China’s economic prowess.
Biden went to Saudi Arabia in July 2022. He landed in Jeddah but MBS didn’t go to the airport to welcome him. Instead, MBS received Biden at local governor’s palace and gave Biden a fist bump. Biden was there to ask for more Saudi oil. He begged but MBS refused. Biden went home humiliated.
Xi Jinping went to Saudi Arabia and landed in the capital, Riyadh. MBS escorted Xi’s car to king Salman’s palace using Saudi Royal Guard riding on Arabian horses, signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership agreement” with China, gave Xi a Huawei contract, and welcomed Xi Jinping with a royal banquet.
Why did Xi Jinping go to Saudi Arabia?
Why did Saudi publicly and deliberately display such a different treatments extended to Xi Jinping and Biden?
Why would MBS humiliate Biden? Are China and Saudi Arabia so closely allied that Saudi Arabia is no longer afraid of America’s revenge?
Finally, is Saudi Arabia finally ready to dump the US dollar and start the new era of Petro Yuan?
Not too long ago, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein wanted to trade oil for Euros instead of the US dollars. Libya’s Colonel Gaddafi in 2009 sconthattinentuggested to the States of the African they should switch to a new currency, independent of the US dollar: the gold dinar. America sanctioned both countries and Hussein and Gaddafi died in part because they threatened the US dollar hegemony.
Saudi Arabia and its allies used to control a big chunk of the oil exports in the world. The US has relied on Saudi oil for much of the past 50 years. After the US shale oil revolution briefly took America’s oil production rate to over 12 million barrels per day in 2019; highest in the world, America began to import less oil from Saudi Arabia, considered the Middle Eastern oil less important and started to treat Saudi Arabia more like an adversary than an important ally. America, under Biden, also worked closely with Iran, an enemy to the Saudi Arabia, and re-started the nuclear treaty negotiation with Iran.
At the same time, oil imports from China began to rise dramatically and China has become the top importer of Saudi Arabia’s oil.
All these developments in the past 6 years have pushed Saudi Arabia and China into a partner by necessity. Finally the Ukraine war and the financial and currency sanctions Biden put on Putin and Russia became the straw which broke the camel’s back.
I have expected Petro Yuan for many years and it finally has a chance to become reality. China and Saudi have discussed this issue for six years according to some reports but Saudi has never pulled the trigger. Putin’s natural gas Ruble probably gave Saudi the incentive to go ahead with the courage and determination.
I would like to see a joint statement between Xi and MBS on Petro Yuan after Xi Jinping concludes his state visit to the Saudi Arabia. In the not too distance future, demand of US dollar from foreign buyers will drop precipiteously and the US dollar will meet its demise and proper burial with crudes trading in Yuan, natural gas in rubles and countless countries trading other merchants using Yuan as well. BTW, these countries will no longer use SWIFT anymore. A new global financial messaging system for the BRICS countries, with 2 “i” and 2 “s”s, India and Iran, South Africa and Saudi Arabia, is ready to take the center stage.
Pretty soon the hegemony of the US dollar will be a thing of the past.
美國用了七十多年建立了一個偏袒白人國家的世界金融制度和世界秩序。俄烏戰爭以後，美國將這個金融制度武器化來制裁蘇俄，非法的霸占蘇俄在海外的資產，禁止蘇俄經過SWIFT跟其他國家進行國際貿易。在此之前，美國還非法的霸占阿富汗的美金資產。對中國也發動了史無前例的貿易，經濟，科技和金融戰爭。在俄烏戰爭開始以前，美國的國家安全顧問機構，智庫和政府的金融，財政專家信誓旦旦的說他們設計了一個有史以來最厲害的經濟，貿易，金融，貨幣和財政制裁，一定會把普丁和蘇俄打趴，打扁，打敗。絕對會把蘇俄打回石器時代，從此一蹶不振，永遠無法對美國構成威脅。然後，美國就可以全心全意的來對付中國。這個算盤打的很好。可是結果卻適得其反，反而把美國打的屁滾尿流，體無完膚。俄烏戰爭發生以後，接下來發生一連串的事就是我們時常說的：unintended consequences。美國完全失算，沒有任何人想到這些意想不到的後果。首先是2022年的通貨膨脹。這一次通貨膨脹跟1970年代的通貨膨脹非常相似。50年前，阿拉伯禁運石油給美國，世界的原油價格飛漲，美國經歷了整整十年的經濟蕭條，聯准會只有升息到20%來控制失控的通貨膨脹。這一次也是因為石油價格上漲而種下了物價上漲的根本原因。除此之外，聯准會，拜登和美國國會（還有其他國家）一而再再而三的發行美鈔。天量的貨幣在COVID解禁以後，一股腦的進入美國和全球經濟。加上美國制裁中國，打貿易戰，供應鏈失調，美國勞工參與率降低，美國制裁中國的半導體工業，半導體晶片缺乏，中國清零政策，等等因素，把全美國的通貨膨脹送到一個四十年來的最高點。在此同時，美國三十年以來的NATO東進，讓普丁忍無可忍。蘇俄的要求一再地被美國否決。普丁只好進軍烏克蘭，要烏克蘭從此放棄進入NATO的意願。美國和歐洲一再軍援烏克蘭，想要拖垮蘇俄。結果普丁把它的天然氣武器化，停止天然氣和石油輸入歐洲。美國還把蘇俄的天然氣管道炸斷，讓歐洲的通貨膨脹一發不可收拾。德國和歐元區8月的PPI年增率上漲到43.3%。歐元區的能源價格飆漲116.8%。這些史無前例的飆漲一定會帶給全世界無法想象的痛苦和災難。美國根本無法獨善其身，一定逃也不過通貨膨脹的災難。你可知道歐元區現在的利息是多少嗎？2.25%。歐洲沒有任何可能可以對抗居高不下的通貨膨脹。你再想想，蘇俄不恢復輸出歐洲的天然氣和石油，歐元區的通貨膨脹下得來嗎？石油價格高漲，美國還不是深受其害，一樣苦不堪言。1970年的通貨膨脹是油價上漲而發生的。聯准會升息到20%才把通貨膨脹打回原形。這一次通貨膨脹的原因非常複雜，有許多因素不是聯准會升息能夠改變的。歐洲物價上漲如果無法得到合理的解決，美國的物價掉的下來嗎？我認為這一次溫水煮青蛙一定會繼續很長的一段時間。聯准會沒有別的辦法，只有一直加息才能把通貨膨脹降低到2%的目標。至於最終的聯邦基準利率會變成多少，誰知道。我可沒有那種預測的能力來判斷。聯准會說會升到5%。你相信 Powell 嗎？他可是一錯再錯，全世界才會變成現在這個半死不活的死樣子。Powell 不知道。沒有人知道。大家只有一個月一個月的等。等新的經濟數據出來再說。不過，我敢說：許多 unintended consequences 會跟著利率上漲而繼續發生。歐洲各國已經陷入經濟蕭條。美國的經濟蕭條也不遠了。你等著瞧吧。至於，世界各國前所未有天量的債務會不會因為聯准會升息而引起類似2008年的美國債務危機或1998，1999的蘇俄和亞洲金融風暴，我可不敢說。可是一兩年後，美金在全世界的地位和重要性一定會降低。而它所引起的意外後果可不是三言兩語可以說的完的。一個嶄新的貨幣：一個用實體貨物來計價全新的貨幣或一個籃子的貨幣，可能會逐漸的代替美金。到時候美金的需求減少，也就是美國國債需求量減少，那美國的國債賣給誰？美國的赤字誰來買單？美國為了負擔天量的債務，只能維持零利率。美國財政部不停的發行國債。美國的聯准會變成美國國債最大的買家。聯准會轉手把買到的國債送給美國財政部來付社會安全福利，付聯邦醫療保險，付聯邦醫療補助，維持美國在全世界一百多個軍營和一大堆數不完的退伍軍人福利。美國國力衰弱已經是世界公認的事實。到頭來，美國就變成第二個日本，永無翻身的可能。其實美國從2009年開始已經經歷了失落的13年。往後的日子只會比現在差。美國的基準利率提升，美國工業的競爭力降低，美國人民的生活水準下降。美金變成廢紙。美國變成第三世界的國家，沒有錢改善人民的生活。整個美國就跟紐約，華盛頓，費城和LA一樣，髒亂無比，犯罪率增加。馬上，這個失落的13年就要變成失落的20年和失落的30年了。2001年和2003年美國入侵阿富汗和伊拉克。兩次戰爭一共拖了20年，結果美國至少浪費了$5.5 trillion 卻沒有得到任何好處。這一次美國跟蘇俄打仗。它從中東那裏得到了教訓，學乖了。自己不參戰，不派兵，不直接跟蘇俄打，把烏克蘭推上了 killing field 殺戮戰場。美國以為它可以不費一兵一卒就能拖垮蘇俄。結果呢？這些 unintended consequences 讓美國一樣的焦頭爛額，更快的把美國推入衰退的泥沼，無法自拔。拜登和美國的激進派打的好算盤，結果全都變成一場空。雖然美國只給烏克蘭一些武器，可是美國在金融市場和貨幣市場損失的更多，對美國的打擊更大，更加速了美國的衰敗和沒落。這就是美國所要面對的 unintended consequences。 December 5, 2022
Posted by hslu in China, 石油, 美國, Economics, 蘇俄, Military, Oil, Putin, Russia, U.S. dollar, U.S. Foreign Policy.Tags: Federal Funds rate, Federal Reserve, Inflation, us decline, 俄烏戰爭
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哎呀，實在不好意思，剛剛才看到這麽多人在臉書上祝我生日快樂，我竟然不知道。慚愧啊，慚愧。平常我是不看自己的FB，所以一直拖到今天來淡水才發現。趕快跟大家說聲：多謝。謝謝大家的祝福，我們很好。也希望你們的日子快樂，安詳，身體健康。說起來，我的75歲生日還過的非常快樂。崇勤的生日跟我只隔了四天。這一次正好台灣解禁，日本也開放觀光，我心血來潮決定去日本慶祝我們的生日。11/8和11/12號我們都在大阪。我們還去了奈良，姬路城和神戶。接下來的八天我們去了京都和嵐山。我們跑了許多地方，看了許多美景，吃了許多日本美食還增長了一點見識。十五天之內我們一共走了284,193步。平均一天走了18,946步。我們無憂無慮，無病無痛，無所事事，天天為了旅遊而踏上青青的石板路和地鐵。我們早上8，9點吃飯，10點鐘出門，搭地鐵，走路，最後還學會了坐日本公車。75歲高齡還能夠靠自己的能力去一個比較陌生的國家。雖然聽不懂他們的言語好在有不少中國字幫忙，一路沒有丟掉，沒有困難，可謂不幸中之大幸也。今天我們兩個來到淡水，在雨中沿著淡水河畔閑逛。我們在一家叫 Memory 的餐館吃飯。自由自在好像還在過生日一樣。唉，每個人的生死由命，富貴在天。我們當然知道生命的可貴。我們47年前見面。沒多久就能夠手牽手的一起走了45年，養了一對可愛的兒女。他們都有理想的伴侶，和諧的家庭以及美滿的生活。我們互相幫助，一起過著平凡的日子。我們互相慶祝生日。我們惜福。我們知足。她玩sudoku訓練腦力和Candy Crush打發時間。我寫我的文章，發自己的牢騷。偶爾我們抬起頭互相擠個眉弄個眼，會心的一笑。吃飯時她隨叫隨到。吃完飯她拍拍屁股走人。我都習慣了。她已經習以為常，覺得這是天經地義，理所當然了。唉，76歲的日子正式開始。我和崇勤也正式的在這裏謝謝大家。當然啦，我們也謝天謝地。 December 4, 2022
Posted by hslu in Chinese Food, Life, Life in Taiwan, Life, Death and Yuanfen, Taiwan, 台灣, 台北.Tags: 生日, 淡水
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拜登的學生貸款救濟 December 4, 2022
Posted by hslu in 美國, education, Taiwan, 台灣.Tags: Biden, election, Students loan
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一到選舉的時候，美國政客跟台灣政客一樣都很會花老百姓的錢來買選票。這是民主政治的污點也是民主政治非常糟糕的地方。
政客有大有小。政客買票花的錢也有多有少。美國總統拜登要買選票那自然得要花大錢才行。而這一次被買的美國人不是升斗小民而是唸過大學正在做事的高級知識分子。這些人可不好騙，沒有像樣的賄賂是買不到他們的票的。當然啦，並不是所有唸過大學的人都能夠找到一個像樣的事，美國的大學畢業生在麥當勞翻漢堡，在菜市場裝購物袋的也多的很。
眾所周知，美國大學的費用，包括學費，雜費，書本費，生活費和啤酒錢，比一般的物價要上漲的特別快，也特別猛。在美國唸個公立大學，動則四，五萬美金一學期。私立大學沒有八，九萬美金那就想都別想。你想唸大學，那就拿錢來。沒錢，那就先向聯邦政府借，畢業以後賺了錢再慢慢還。
在美國，這就是所謂的 student loan，學生貸款。據估計，美國學生貸款的總額是 $1.617 trillion。全美國一共有四千兩百八十萬人身上揹著學生貸款的債務，平均每個人欠$37,787。而這四千多萬人當中，已經有八十五萬人在去年年底就開始欠錢不還了。
拜登一看這個情形，他這個幹了50年參議員/副總統/總統的老滑頭馬上就知道有利可圖了。要是我拜登大發慈悲讓你們少付一些學生貸款，你們會不會投我一票？於是拜登提議由美國政府花4千億美金來減輕一些身上揹著學生貸款債務人的負擔。
拜登提議如下：如果一個人每年的收入少於 $125,000，或者一家一年的收入少於$250,000，那你們欠國家的學生貸款可以少還$10,000。如果你家境貧寒申請了 Pell Grant，那你可以少付 $20,000。簡單明瞭。大家都來申請吧。
哇塞，聖誕節還沒到，住在白宮的那一個慈祥的老公公就從天上撒美金。白宮就是不一樣，撒起錢來，一點都不手軟。一撒就是一捆一捆的撒。每捆就是一萬張嶄新的一元紙幣。這比天上掉下個林妹妹還要美好！
這個消息出來後，有學生貸款債務在身的人欣喜若狂，大家感激拜登的任政，爭先恐後瘋狂的在網路上申請。沒多久兩千六百萬人已經遞上申請書了。白宮也不負眾望，到上個月為止教育部已經准許了一千六百萬個人的申請。這個政府真好，知道民間人民的痛苦。
誰知道，好景不長，美國的教育部在上個月宣佈立即停止辦理申請。因為有人歡笑，就有一些人很不爽。他們對拜登撒錢的任政非常不滿。這些人一氣之下把美國政府和拜登告到聯邦法院去了。結果德州的一個聯邦法官下了命令，說拜登的法規不合理，違背美國憲法的精神。申請立即停止。
為什麼要停止呢？原因很多。
首先，這四千億美金從那裏來？是不是要沒有大學文憑的人出？有大學文憑的人有大房子住，賺大錢，卻要沒有唸大學的人出錢供養他們？不合理。
這些受過高等教育，現在正在賺大錢的人可以得到美國政府的補助。而下一餐飯在那裏的窮人為什麼得不到政府的補助？他們的那一捆一萬元美金在那裏？
美國有好幾千萬人，包括我的孩子，都曾經借過學生貸款唸大學。他們都乖乖的，按時的，把錢還給了政府。他們的那一捆一萬元美金在那裏？
有許多美國人想要唸大學，可是他們家裏窮，就算有政府的學生貸款他們也負擔不起。他們的那一捆一萬元美金在那裏？
總之，拜登的這個買選票的政策就是不合理，不公平，美國也沒有錢來負擔這一筆巨大的支出。那些借了錢唸大學的人就應該乖乖的按照當初借錢時簽下的合同，每個月從薪水中扣下來還給政府，也就是把錢還給美國的納稅人。
如今美國最高法院要受理這個案子。聯邦政府和德州政府的律師將對簿公堂在最高法官前面討論兩造的理由。明年六月最高法院就會宣佈他們的決定。我們拭目以待。
美國人欠的學生貸款已經達到$1.617 trillion。大家免不了要問：為什麼會欠這麽多錢？
我知道為什麼。因為美國人在他們的工作崗位上面對了史無前例的競爭。
這些競爭有很大的一部分是從國外來的。美國的中產階級已經從美國逐漸消失。中產階級的人數日漸減少，他們的財富和生活水準逐漸降低。他們害怕了。他們以為唯一的方法就是繼續深造，自我提升，增加自己的機會。我一向不看好美國的基礎教育。美國的公共學校充滿了不長進的孩子：白人，黑人和西班牙裔的中南美洲人。美國也有數不盡的家庭並不把孩子的教育當成家庭的最高目標。這種教育環境怎麼教的出好學生？怎麼教的出能夠跟亞洲孩子競爭的學生？
美國要打壓中國，想要把生產鏈搬回美國。你只要看一看美國的教育制度，美國的工人素質，工人的教育程度和他們的工作態度就知道這是無法達成的目標。
美國人申請學生貸款卻付不出錢來還，還在白宮和各地的大街遊行要政府減免他們的債務。這本身就是一個不負責任的行為，一個逃避現實的心態。美國有這種員工，請問它的公司如何跟世界其他國家的公司競爭呢？
政客為了討好選民，想出不合理的方法撒錢買選票。好在美國的法律健全，美國的三權分立起到制衡的作用。這是美國進步的原因之一。
從這一點我忍不住的回頭看台灣的博士論文能夠被政府密封幾十年。台灣的三權分立在那裏？台灣的反對黨在那裏？台灣選民的怒吼在那裏？怪不得台灣的勞工薪水停滯了二三十年。
悲傷啊！台灣。
xiaohua 