肯亞將用肯亞先令購買沙烏地的石油產品 April 19, 2023
Posted by hslu in 石油, 美國, 美國, Energy, Middle East, Oil, Travel, U.S. dollar.Tags: ADNOC, 肯亞, 肯亞先令, Kenyan Shillings, Saudi Arabia, SaudiAramoco, Shillings for Oil, UAE, US dollar hegemony, 先令換石油
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Kenya signs oil deals with ADNOC and Saudi Aramco to curb FX pressure
Kenya 肯亞這個國家，聽過吧？沒錯，就是東非州的肯亞。一個不算太大，人口很少，經濟不怎麼發達，國際地位不怎麼高的一個第三世界，未開發的國家。
嗯，怎麼搞的今天要上世界地理課？東非地理？肯亞？別開玩笑了。
別怕，聽聽就好。等一下不用考試。
肯亞在東非東部。它東邊濒临印度洋，北邊的國家有衣索比亞和索馬利亞。南邊跟坦桑尼亞爲鄰，西邊有烏干達和南也門。肯亞大城市的名字很好記，你應該也常常在新聞上聽到：蒙巴萨和奈洛比。蒙巴萨在海邊，是肯亞的第二大城市，人口有90萬。奈洛比是肯亞的首都，第一大城市，位於肯亞的中部，人口有三百萬。
肯亞最著名的就是它們的國家公園。肯亞全國有24個國家公園，15個國家保護區和許許多多私人經營的保護區。最有名的有：安波沙利國家公園，馬賽馬拉國家保護區和塞倫蓋蒂國家公園。國家公園裏的動物有長頸鹿，彎角野豬，公獅子和邊上七八隻母獅子，野豹，大象，犀牛，野牛，河馬，鱷魚和幾千種不同種類的鳥類。每年兩百萬隻斑馬，羚羊和斑紋角馬大規模的遷徙更是令人歎爲觀止。這些天然美景都是值得我們去享受，去探索的，
肯亞還有一張非常經典的相片也是世界聞名的。它吸引世界上許多人對肯亞美麗的自然景觀的讚歎和欣賞：從肯亞南邊邊界的安波沙利國家公園往正南邊坦桑尼亞的乞力马扎罗主山峰看去，五十英里以外，一座莊嚴，雄偉的乞力馬扎羅死火山的山峰的半個峰頂全都被皚皚的白雪遮蓋了。這個死火山下面，橫跨相片左右的空間被一層銀灰帶淺黑色類似灰白霧氣的一層薄紗遮住。在主山峰的左後方有一個比較矮小，深黑色，尖頂，沒有白雪的山峰聳立在那裏。兩個山峰獨特，不同的形狀和黑白相間的顏色，形成一個非常鮮明的對比。
就在前面幾百英尺的地方，有五六顆高矮不等，形狀各異的矮小的灌木。它們的樹幹都不粗，葉子顏色全都是肅靜的深綠色。它們靜靜的，瀟灑的站立在一堆矮小的灌木叢中間，帶着幾顆枯枝爲這一片廣闊無邊的初始原野做一個見證。遠處在這幾顆樹的另一邊是一望無際廣闊的平野。那裏有幾萬隻斑馬，羚羊和斑紋角馬。他們有的在那裏奔跑，有的在那裏吃草，有的在那裏觀望。不少隻母獅子和野豹在四周伺機行動，追捕弱小或受傷的羚羊和斑馬。
Photo Source：https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/kenya.htm
View of Mount Kilimanjaro from Amboseli National Park in southern Kenya. The dormant volcano is located in Tanzania
Image: Sergey Pesterev
肯亞還有一個專長是世界聞名的：長跑和田徑運動。舉凡世界有名的長距離賽跑：奧林匹克 800米，1500米，3000米，5000米和10000米，波士頓，紐約和倫敦馬拉松，等等，肯亞的男女運動員都得過比賽的冠軍。許多人還是世界紀錄的保持者。在2008年的北京奧林匹克運動會，肯亞的男女選手贏了6面金牌，4面銀牌和4面銅牌。肯亞是當之無愧非洲表現最好的國家。他們在長距離賽跑的世界舞臺上是獨一無二的。
肯亞男人喜歡隨歌起舞，他們還喜歡穿鮮紅的有格子，長袍式的服裝。肯亞男人擅長站在地上往天上跳。他們可以跟羚羊一樣跳離地面三，五英尺，極爲壯觀。這也是肯亞獨特的技能之一。
好了，下課了。肯亞地理的複習就到此爲止。不過我希望你暫時還不要離開，因爲還有一件有關肯亞的大事就在前幾天發生了。
許多人可能根本不會注意這件事，有些人也一定會嗤之以鼻，覺得這是小題大做，不切實際。不過，它可能只是一個先兆，也可能是一個趨勢，一個無法逆轉，對美國非常壞，對世界其他國家非常好的趨勢。
你知道嗎，前幾天沙烏地阿拉伯的石油公司Saudi Aramco答應接受肯亞的貨幣，Kenyan Shillings先令，來購買沙烏地的石油產品。肯亞的貨幣代碼為KES，他的符號是KSh。UAE’s ADNOC石油公司也跟肯亞簽了類似的先令換石油的協議。
肯亞一天能用幾桶石油產品？少得可憐：一天只有114,000桶。一年四千一百萬桶。它自己不生產石油，幾乎全靠進口。這點石油連中國進口的零頭都不夠，有什麼稀奇的嗎？難道美國還稀罕肯亞一年35億的美金嗎？當然不在乎。
可是，這個協議對肯亞可能是它最重要，對經濟最有幫助的一件事。美國可能不稀罕肯亞這一點點美金，可是肯亞買石油需要的美金卻可能是肯亞政府，肯亞經濟和它的金融業的致命傷。
爲什麼呢？這個道理很簡單。
肯亞的國家的基礎建設需要依靠進口的材料。肯亞沒有石油，每天的需求全靠進口。肯亞要買建築材料和石油就必須拿出美金來交換。肯亞不多的美金外匯收入全靠觀光（60%），茶葉，咖啡和農業產品。觀光客不去塞倫蓋蒂國家公園參觀，肯亞人民就沒有收入，國家就沒有美金。肯亞沒有美金就買不到石油，買不到建築材料，肯亞的經濟就垮了。
如今，肯亞可以用自己的貨幣，先令，向沙烏地和UAE購買石油，肯亞美金的需求和美金債務的壓力就會減輕不少。肯亞在世界經濟衰退，美國升息，先令貶值的時候就比較容易站得住腳。美國升息就割不到肯亞的韭菜。
雖然美國可能認爲失去這一點點美金微不足道，可是它帶來的後續影響和背後深藏的意義遠遠大於肯亞每年的$36億美金將不再在世界經濟裏流通。沙烏地不願意留美金，因爲它怕美國制裁。MBS的億萬財產也怕被美國沒收。肯亞先令沒有什麼大用，不過比美金要安全多了。MBS跟拜登作對了好幾年，拜登已經對他很不滿意了。MBS違背美國的石油美元指令，難道美國不會制裁沙烏地阿拉伯和它的幾十個富可敵國的王子？美國要沒收MBS的財產輕而易舉，只要拜登一句話就可以付諸實施。MBS一點辦法，一點警告都沒有。MBS的全名是 Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud ，他是沙烏地阿拉伯的王子，是沙烏地地位國王。他的千億資產恐怕不少都是美金。他最近的這幾個晚上睡覺時恐怕睡的也不怎麼安穩。
如今肯亞勇敢的開了非洲去美元化的這一槍，公開的跟美國對着幹。其他非洲，東南亞和拉丁美洲的幾個小國冷冷的看在眼裏，先按兵不動，小心地觀察一下後續的發展。看看美國會不會制裁那個阿貓阿狗的。白宮，他們一定多多少少總會在心裏盤算一下：肯亞敢，我沒什麼不敢的。我的利益我自己得看着。我們跟肯亞的情況類似。美國累贅升息，我們手頭的美金一直很吃緊。讓我跟MBS打個電話。過兩天就把本國貨幣換石油的交易給敲定了吧。
美國可能一直在想辦法解開這個死結，可是這個趨勢已經成爲世界經濟和金融界的主流意思。它細水長流，小溪已經匯集成一條小河。波濤雖然還沒有洶涌，流水還沒有變成洪流，這個已經勢已經不可擋了。美國和拜登作繭自縛，自己把美金往死裏打。美國束手無策，已經迴天乏力。活該倒楣。
China’s Xi vows to buy more Mideast oil as US focus wanes December 10, 2022
Posted by hslu in 石油, 美國, 習近平, Energy, Middle East, Oil, One Belt One Road, Putin, Renminbi, Russia, U.S. dollar, U.S. Foreign Policy, 中國, 中東.Tags: Biden, China, MBS, natural gas Ruble, Petro renminbi, Petro Yuan, Putin, Saudi Arabia, US dollar hegemony, Xi Jinping
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https://news.yahoo.com/arab-leaders-saudi-arabia-chinese-113336617.html Chinese leader Xi Jinping vowed on Friday to import more oil and natural gas from energy-rich Gulf Arab states while not interfering in their affairs, likely s…
Will the US dollar hegemony be a thing of the past after Xi Jinping concludes his state visit to the Saudi Arabia?
It’s very likely even though it will take some time. It’s only a matter of “when” now.
All of this because of Putin. He started the first move with the natural gas Ruble and he alone accelerated the pace of the US dollar’s demise. China helped Putin by standing behind him with China’s economic prowess.
Biden went to Saudi Arabia in July 2022. He landed in Jeddah but MBS didn’t go to the airport to welcome him. Instead, MBS received Biden at local governor’s palace and gave Biden a fist bump. Biden was there to ask for more Saudi oil. He begged but MBS refused. Biden went home humiliated.
Xi Jinping went to Saudi Arabia and landed in the capital, Riyadh. MBS escorted Xi’s car to king Salman’s palace using Saudi Royal Guard riding on Arabian horses, signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership agreement” with China, gave Xi a Huawei contract, and welcomed Xi Jinping with a royal banquet.
Why did Xi Jinping go to Saudi Arabia?
Why did Saudi publicly and deliberately display such a different treatments extended to Xi Jinping and Biden?
Why would MBS humiliate Biden? Are China and Saudi Arabia so closely allied that Saudi Arabia is no longer afraid of America’s revenge?
Finally, is Saudi Arabia finally ready to dump the US dollar and start the new era of Petro Yuan?
Not too long ago, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein wanted to trade oil for Euros instead of the US dollars. Libya’s Colonel Gaddafi in 2009 sconthattinentuggested to the States of the African they should switch to a new currency, independent of the US dollar: the gold dinar. America sanctioned both countries and Hussein and Gaddafi died in part because they threatened the US dollar hegemony.
Saudi Arabia and its allies used to control a big chunk of the oil exports in the world. The US has relied on Saudi oil for much of the past 50 years. After the US shale oil revolution briefly took America’s oil production rate to over 12 million barrels per day in 2019; highest in the world, America began to import less oil from Saudi Arabia, considered the Middle Eastern oil less important and started to treat Saudi Arabia more like an adversary than an important ally. America, under Biden, also worked closely with Iran, an enemy to the Saudi Arabia, and re-started the nuclear treaty negotiation with Iran.
At the same time, oil imports from China began to rise dramatically and China has become the top importer of Saudi Arabia’s oil.
All these developments in the past 6 years have pushed Saudi Arabia and China into a partner by necessity. Finally the Ukraine war and the financial and currency sanctions Biden put on Putin and Russia became the straw which broke the camel’s back.
I have expected Petro Yuan for many years and it finally has a chance to become reality. China and Saudi have discussed this issue for six years according to some reports but Saudi has never pulled the trigger. Putin’s natural gas Ruble probably gave Saudi the incentive to go ahead with the courage and determination.
I would like to see a joint statement between Xi and MBS on Petro Yuan after Xi Jinping concludes his state visit to the Saudi Arabia. In the not too distance future, demand of US dollar from foreign buyers will drop precipiteously and the US dollar will meet its demise and proper burial with crudes trading in Yuan, natural gas in rubles and countless countries trading other merchants using Yuan as well. BTW, these countries will no longer use SWIFT anymore. A new global financial messaging system for the BRICS countries, with 2 “i” and 2 “s”s, India and Iran, South Africa and Saudi Arabia, is ready to take the center stage.
Pretty soon the hegemony of the US dollar will be a thing of the past.
xiaohua 