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Only the idiot in the WH didn’t know that January 12, 2018

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Putin, Trump, 川普.
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And he even said that he has a very good relationship with Kim Jong Un.

Blind and acted like a 井底之蛙。

By “west”, Putin means the USA.

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You should read this December 31, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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What Tillerson Won’t Admit: The U.S. Has No Leverage https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-28/what-tillerson-won-t-admit-the-u-s-has-no-leverage

It goes to show how little Tillerson and Trump can do in a world where the U.S. has already lost its influence.

With Russia and China forming an economic and military alliance, with Europe firmly against Trumo’s policies, the glory days of American supremacy are over.

A new world order with China in the dominant position has emerged.

Care to count how many friends America still have these days?

Fewer than 10?

Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia, Iran and oil December 15, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 石油, 美國, Energy, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Oil, Putin, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Mohammed bin Salman’s ill-advised ventures have weakened Saudi Arabia’s position in the world

http://flip.it/93wubN

The failed policies of Mohammed bin Salman, the growing influence of Iran and the formation of Shia cresent are the primary reason that WTI is trading above $55 a barrel and Brent crude at $63 a barrel. A 20% war premium has been added to the price of crude oil contracts since November. It has gained more than 30% since the low achieved in late June of this year.

Saudi Arabia has been fighting a proxy war with Iran via Yemen for 2 years with little but many dead Yemenis to show for. Saudi’s oil infrastructure is now under external threat from Yemen which will keep the price of Brent crude at an elevated level. 

US shale oil production is expected to rise because WTI is trading at a few dollars below $60/barrel. However, since US exports very little of its oil, the spread between WTI and Brent crude will widen.

Source: CNBC

Source: CNBC

With WTI comfortably trading above $45 a barrel, roughly the average price of WTI for the past three years, oil company stocks should see a nice rebound in 2018. If the tension between Saudi and Iran flares up further, oil companies should see more upside too. 

With an young and inexperienced prince in Rydah colluding with a dotard and impulsive Trump in the WH, giant mistakes will continue to happen.

It is bad for the world.

It is good for China and it will be great for the US oil companies.

Putin is smiling too.

美國的民主政治 vs 中國的集權統治 October 18, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Democracy, Election, Global Affair, Globlization, Health Insurance, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Obama, Obamacare, Putin, Racial Bias, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 民主.
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大學好友寄來一篇有關美國民主政治和大陸集權統治的文章。看完後,想到臺灣最近坎坷的民主政治和困苦的經濟環境,忍不住感慨萬分。

中國數千年,朝代變遷,不論什麼政治體系,甚至包括一人獨裁的專制體系,那一個不是順民者昌,逆民者亡的?我時常說,能夠爲人民着想的政府,爲人民創造幸福的未來,讓人民安居樂業,社會安定的政府就是一個好的政府。

這篇文章是復旦大學中國研究研究員宋魯鄭在中國十九大開會前夕寫的。文章刊登在BBC News 中文網站上。值得一看。

Source: BBC News 中文版

http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-41645713

Source: BBC News 中文版

 

 

爲了給其他同學提供一些背景資料,我把美國近20年的政治變化簡短的摘要下來給他們參考。以下是我寫的摘要:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

謝謝高教授轉來的文章。

作者對“民主政治”的優,缺點分析的十分中肯,對一意孤行的川普和逐漸被世界排斥的美國也有明確的說明。在此,我斗膽把美國二十年來在外交和內政的變化簡短的跟大家報告一下,希望對你看這一篇文章有點幫助。

 

Clinton開始,美國就跟全世界說,伊拉克的 Saddam Hussein 擁有WMD。Bush Jr. 上臺8個月後發生911事件。美國以國家安全爲理由在2011年10月入侵阿富汗,在2013年3月入侵伊拉克。(Saddam Hussein 在 2000年10月堅持以歐元,不用美元,交換伊拉克的石油可能是美國攻打伊拉克的原因之一。)Bush Jr.爲了保護美國人民和本土,把美國的外交政策推向極右派好戰的陣營。2007年3月,美國次貸危機和 2008年9月的金融危機把全世界推向經濟蕭條的深淵。美國經濟衰退,欠債累累,失業率激增。這些事在2008年11月把Obama 推上了美國總統的寶座。

 

Obama 在他執政的八年中把美國的外交和內政推向極左派的自由主義陣營裏。對外,放棄美國霸權拒絕做全球警察,從伊拉克撤軍使得ISIS崛起,對阿富汗增兵然後撤軍,打擊以色列,討好阿拉伯回教國家,對中國採取“亞太再平衡”的圍堵政策,對蘇俄兼併克里米亞採取經濟制裁卻反而把蘇俄推向中國的懷抱。對敘利亞畫下紅線卻不採取行動,攻打ISIS不盡全力反而讓蘇俄在敘利亞建立軍事基地,簽訂伊朗核武協議,對北韓核武發展束手無策,進行TPP,TPA和TTIP談判,簽巴黎氣候協議增加美國公司負擔,影響美國勞工就業市場。最後在民主黨即將失去多數黨地位前與古巴建交。對內,他上臺後不立即更有效的用財政措施來拯救美國經濟,反而用他所有的政治資本來推動醫保全民化,簽訂 Dodd-Frank法案約束金融機構,約束石油公司,徹底打擊國內煤炭產業,濫用總統的行政權力變相的大赦非法移民,給婦女免費避孕藥,提倡社區大學兩年免費就讀,提倡同性戀婚姻合法化,支持變性人的合法地位,在軍中廢除“不問不說”政策和減弱美國人擁有槍支的權力。還有,Obama這個黑人總統和他對種族問題的迴避直接和間接的挑起了美國白人警察和黑人的武力衝突,也增加了白人對黑人的歧視和打擊黑人的決心。除此之外,金融危機帶動的量化寬鬆政策導致全世界貧富極端的不均。全球化和中國的崛起也增加美國民衆,尤其是美國南方保守派白人,對美國政府,美國前途和美國自由化現況的不滿。Obama執政八年已經無可否認的把美國變成了一個社會主義的國家了。

 

這些外在的因素和希拉蕊競選的失敗把川普推入了白宮。美國民主政治,四年河東,四年河西,動盪不安。我們現在看到的亂象都是歷史了。

 

謝謝。

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Who is that guy in cowboy hat? September 28, 2017

Posted by hslu in Congress, 美國, Democracy, Election, Muslim, Politics, Putin, Trump.
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Trump asked.

Is he from Texas?

No.

Is he from Wyoming?

No.

Is he a movie star from an old western movie?

No.

Is he…….

Stop guessing, please.

Okay. 

Well, he’s Roy Moore from Alabama. And he could become a U.S. senator if you, Mr. Trump, decides to campaign for him in a special November election. 

But, wait. Didn’t you, Trumpm support this guy’s opponent, Luther Strange, in a run off election with powerful tweets and personal appearance right before the vote? 

Yes. We all know how powerful Trump’s tweets can be, don’t we? Personal apperance means 100% gauranteed.

Yeah, Luther will never let you down! Great line. Trump really has ways with powerful words.

Shooting up in polls. Of course. With my tweets, loser has no where to go but up.

So, what’d happened on the election day? Did Trump’s tweets put loser, sorry, Luther, over the top?

Let’s see what Trump had to say the day after the special election:

Did Trump actually back a loser? Yes, he sure did.

Unbelievable!

But, what kind of guy Roy is? Where does Roy stand on social issues? Here are just some of Roy’s convictionsare are:

Yeah! Hallelujah! Praise the lord!

Did science make a mistake? Obviously accirding to Roy of Alamaba.

I am sure he is 100% for the travel ban.

Whose god? Shall I ask?

Roy has to take off his shirt first. Whete is the horse? A AK-47 would help.

Trump said that too.

So, what now?

These ill-informed tweets (it wasn’t me, goddam it, blame McConnell for that) are misleading. They should be destroyed.

Now that Luther is packing, we’ll get Roy does his magic in November. We need all the votes in the Senate for that great tax bill ever later this yearbecause we can’t count on that pseudo hero from Arizona. Maine and Alaska aren’t safe either. There are a few tea party nuts which we have to deal with too.

I’ll get my tweet storm cooking.

And above all a bellicose and unpredictable Trump September 8, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Islam, Japan, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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The statement below by Jens Stoltenberg, the head of NATO, is true but Stoltenberg should have added bellicose Trump to the mix too.

But, Jens Soltenberg fogot to mention that the U.S., Russia, Israel, India, Parkistan and China, among others, have thousands of nuclear warheads pointing to each other at all times.

That’s a real perliferation of weapons of mass destruction indeed.

He just doesn’t care August 12, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Putin, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, US Government.
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To save money on the payroll, Trump has to fire all 755 state dept employees expelled by Putin.

Source: Yahoo News

Being a business man, Trump should know this at least. Apparently he doesn’t. Maybe he want to let them go.

Well, the State Department budget will be cut by 25% anyway. The layoff of 755 in one fell swoop will help to speed up the process a lot.

Let’s get the pink slips flying. American’s State Department has done a lot of bad things to other countries in the world for 70 years already. A 25% cut across the board in that department is a good start.

The next target: DoD?

My follow up questions August 1, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Putin, Russia, Trump.
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There are about 1200 U.S. State Department employees currently working against Russia in Russia. 755 of them got fired by Putin. Mr. Tillerson should fire them and save American tax payers by at least $500 million a year.

Here are my follow up questions:

How many U.S. State Department employees are working in China against China now?

Should that numbers be cut by 63% in one fell swoop too?

2nd Korean war July 31, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Japan, Military, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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Source: BBC News

Is it a S. Korean problem?

No doubt about it. 

Instead of raining cats and dogs, DMZ, Seoul and a big chunk of S. Korea will see bombs of all sorts raining down from the sky before the U.S. can surgically nuetralize threats from N. Korea missile sites. There might be nuclear, bio and chemical varieties.

S. Koreans won’t like Trump’s call for actions either because millions of S. Koreans have relatives in the north. They don’t want to see them die from American bombs. 
Will S. Korea invade the North without U. S. participation? 

No.

Will S. Korean soldiers kill N. Korean soldiers and vice versa?

No, if they have a say. They are all Koreans after all.

So, let me get this straight:

After Trump tweets out the order to bomb the hell out of N. Korea, it is the Koreans who will suffer the most and it is the Koreas which will endure the most damages. 

It isn’t a good picture and it doesn’t make any sense for Mr. Moon at all.

Is it a problem for Japan?

Definitely. Japan had twice occupied Korea in the past, slaughtered many Koreans and ruled Korean people for centuries. For that, Koreans hate Japan and that’s why N. Korea wants nothing less than total revenge against Japan if a war breaks out between the U.S. and N. Korea. 

Then there is the issue of Japan denying the roles of comfort women during WWII. 

Once war breaks out, N. Korea will try to do all it can to inflict damages to Japan and its people one way or the other. 

Is it a problen for Russia?

Nope. There might be nuclear fall outs in Russia if nukes start to fly. Russia will contunue to supply all the weapons N. Korea wants and provide intelligence data which N. Korea needs to fight the war.

Putin should benefit the most from the war between the U.S.A. and N. Korea.

Is it a problem for China?

To some degree. China may see thousands of N. Korean migrants crossing over the Yalu River if Trump decides to bomb N. Korea. Nuclear fall outs in China can’t be dismissed either. 

But, N. Korea will not invade China and it will not send missiles to the direction of China either. It is annoying to China because of all the tweets from Trump but the war isn’t a problem for China per se.

In the end, China will stand behind N. Korea in spirit but will not fight for the country like it did in the first Korean war. If N. Korea requests weapons, China will provide them so that Kim’s regime can defend itself.

After the war, China will offer N. Korea interest free loans and help N. Korea re-build. China’s excess capacity gets new orders and N. Korea gets new factories, new roads and new railroads. It’s a win win situation.

Is it a problem for the U.S.?

Yes. 50+K American soldiers in DMZ and Camp Humphreys will be in harms way. Nukes, bio and chemical bombs could come down on them. Andrews AFB will become a busy place. Body bag makers will see a rush of new orders. Bomb makers will work overtime to re-stock the pile. U.S. economy gets a small boost. 

American ship and carriers in the vicinity of Korea and Japan and other regions in the Pacific Ocean may face threats from N. Korean subs even though these subs are old and out dated. 

American soil will be spared just like all world wars in the past. But, N. Korean spies will try to cause damages to American assets in the world. 

Can America do a surgical attack on N. Korean targets just to give Kim a warning?

No. 

The U.S. won’t. It has to do a “shock and awe” job in the beginning to eliminate major threats from the N. Korea. 

To do that, America has to amass a large number of fighter planes before bombing starts. If America wants to invade N. Korea either with S. Korean troops (preferred by America, of course,) or American soldiers, they need to move soldiers to the DMZ. That will give N. Korea ample chance to strike the first blow to American soldiers and South Korean urban centers. It can get pretty ugly very fast.
Is it a problem for North Korea?

Certainly. Millions of N. Korean soldiers and civilians will die if the 2nd Korean War drags on. Infrastructure in N. Korea will for sure be damaged.

Will Kim die? Probably not. He’ll be hidding in the bunker which can stand direct hits from Mother of all bombs. 

Will Kim be captured? Not likely unless America sends in foot soldiers into Pyongyang to mop up the floor clean after devastating N. Korea.

Whose war is it anyway?

So, is Kim more of a problem for S. Korean people or is it a problem for Trump and America?

The answer is clearly the latter. Koreans don’t want a war. Moon want a dialog with Kim and it is Trump and American generals who are more eager to start a war between two Koreas. 

So, why is Trump so eager to stir up the pot? Because Trump is in trouble at home with low voters approval ratings and Mueller. The real reason for Trump’s N. Korea tweets is that by kicking the N. Korea conflict up a notch it might divert media’s attention away from Russian investigation. 

A bigger question

Shouldn’t S. Koreans have more to say about a war between the two Koreas instead of Trump?

Moon should make it very clear to Trump on this important point unless Trump is sending American soldiers into the North too.

A Black Swam from the Korean peninsula?

So, is the 2nd Korean war a “black swan” event for the world financial markets to worry about?

Not by the action of three major indices. All three are either at or near all time highs. 

The only logical conclusion one can make is that despite all the tweets from Trump, the 2nd Korean war won’t happen.

The joke of democracy April 20, 2017

Posted by hslu in Election, Politics, Putin, Russia, Trump.
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Will you trust the 2020 American presidential election result?

May be Russia should send a few observers to monitor and report irregularities of the U.S. election in 2020.

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