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世事無常看美國 April 18, 2020

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Democracy, Economics, Globlization, Trump, U.S. dollar.
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閑來無事,除了出去在公園裏走走之外,我也靜下來想一想美國過去六七十年走過的路,看看美國為什麼成為世界第一大國。

如今,美國世界第一的地位受到威脅,美國白人的國家(民族)主義抬頭,許多在美國的 Latinos,muslims ,亞洲人和中國人,包括我們的孩子在內,都會受到影響。這種種族歧視會維持多久,會達到什麼程度就難説了。

希望我只是杞人憂天而已。

美國的強大不只是因為它有自由競爭,自由發展,自我更正的環境。美國成為世界盟主的地位還有許多其他的原因。細細講來要倒推70年:

• 二次世界大戰期間,美國是世界上唯一一個沒有傷到筋,動到骨的大國(加拿大也是,不過加拿大經濟只有美國的 1/10,對世界經濟沒有太大的影響)。英,法,德,蘇,中,日,意全都在二次大戰時受到毀滅性的打擊和傷害。戰後,這些國家欠了一屁股的戰爭債,國力衰弱,百廢待舉,但是國庫空虛,無力還債。馬歇爾計劃幫助美國的聯盟國家重建家園,恢復國力。日本也受到美國的恩惠。可是,美國一直沒有意願要幫助中國或蘇俄。

• 這些歐洲盟國用美國的貸款購買美國公司的產品重建他們的基礎建設和公共設施。而馬歇爾計劃的受益者則是美國的公司行號,更加鞏固美國公司在世界上的領導地位。

• 戰後,民共內戰不休,大陸經濟崩潰,中華民國大敗,偏安臺灣。中國接下來進入毀滅的40年,一直到1980年後期開始改革開放。美國成長為世界第一大國時期,中國根本不是一個威脅。改革開放後,FDI激增,中國經濟跟著起飛。二十五年以後,中國已經成為美國世界盟主的最大威脅。

• 臺灣靠穩定的政府,美國的幫助,自己的決心,經過十大建設和一系列的改革,經濟復甦,成長,在1980年代靠出口和美國經濟起飛而賺了許多錢。中國經濟起飛後,臺灣在1990年到2010年間也大賺了一票。但是,臺灣經濟體太小,對美國的地位沒有任何威脅。

• 蘇俄和美國交惡,在一定的程度上對美國的安全有一點威脅。經濟上,蘇俄太小,自然條件比不上美國,也不是美國的對手。

• 英,法,德和其他歐盟國家的經濟總和與美國相當,可是每個國家有自己的政治體系,沒有辦法達到合作無間的地步,也無法跟美國對抗。歐元基本上是一個行不通的貨幣政策。1999年發行以後,問題一大堆,對美元的威脅也不明顯。

• 美國靠著二戰時期雄厚的工業實力和國防工業基礎,地大物博的天然資源,嬰兒潮爆發性的人口增長和二戰對歐洲各國的破壞,順理成章的從英國手中接下了世界第一大國的地位。美國的國防工業,因為韓戰,越戰,冷戰,阿富汗戰爭和伊拉克戰爭的磨練,天文數字的預算和維持世界盟主地位的決心,突飛猛進,大幅度的超過世界上任何一個國家。

• 1960至1990之間,外國來的精英為了追求夢想來到美國唸書,經商,做事。有些人選擇留在美國替美國賣命(包括我在內),發展科技,做研究,用外國的資源,賺外國人的錢。這些人還在美國付稅,生孩子,替美國培養下一代的社會中堅,替美國的成長,壯大和超越貢獻了一生的心血和力量。

• 1973年,尼克森取消美金和黃金掛鉤。從此以後,美國無限制的發行美金,提升美國經濟,進一步的鞏固美金成為世界的儲存貨幣的地位。

• 1973年石油危機以後,吉辛吉暗地裏跟沙烏地阿拉伯談好條件:美國保證沙烏地阿拉伯皇室的安全,但是世界上的石油買賣要用美金計價。此舉大幅的增加美金在世界上的流量,促成美金成為世界貨幣的地位。

• 在過去六七十年間,美國建立並且控制了許多經濟,貿易,銀行,金融和軍事組織(世界銀行,IMF,SWIFT,G7,G20,WTO,NATO,等等)。這些組織成為美國控制世界金融流通,財務政策,國際貿易,經濟發展的工具。這也是美國在過去六七十年建立的 world order。

• 在過去五六十年,美國為了保持它世界盟主和美金的世界貨幣地位,公開的,秘密的用軍事,貨幣,支持反對黨,金援,經濟制裁和外交政策等方法直接干涉其它國家的內政,顛覆不友好國家的政府,重組一個對美國友好的政府以及攻打對美國利益有威脅的國家。

• 美國跨國公司,利用它的資金和技術,用發展中國家的廉價勞工,優惠的稅率政策,便宜的土地和天然資源,在外國設工廠,製造產品行銷到世界各地。一方面,這些美國的跨國公司賺了大錢,增強美國經濟和軍事實力。另外一方面,美國人享受低價物品,降低美國的通貨膨脹,增加美國人的財富,還把環境污染和骯髒的空氣留在外國。(然後再反過來罵其他國家不注重環境)

• 美國有一兩千萬的中,南美洲的非法移民和五六千萬合法移民。這些人工作努力,做事認真,比美國黒,白人要勤快的多。他們的工資便宜,做美國人不願意做的事,降低了美國勞工成本。

• 美金是世界的儲存貨幣。它給美國無限制印鈔票的能力。外國賣東西給美國想,美國給外國一大堆鈔票。這些國家拿了美金,回過頭來買美國國債,壓低美國利率,直接刺激美國人消費,增加美國人負債,增長美國經濟。不過,這是一個無法永久持續的假象。歐元和人民幣已經慢慢的消減美金的地位。不過,短期內,美金的地位是無法動搖的,除非石油不再用美金計價。

• 美國政府二十幾兆的國債和每年幾千億,上兆美金的聯邦赤字,變相的直接刺激美國消費。美國入不敷出,用債務堆出來的繁榮假象遲早會反咬美國一口的。

• 資本主義講白了就是一個 boom followed by a bust cycle。美國的 secular 利息週期可以長達35至40年。上個週期從1979年開始到2015/2016年結束。接下來的這一個週期也會繼續 decades。每個cycle中又有許多 cyclical 經濟週期。而資本主義的併發症就是貧富不均。一百多年前,國父孫中山先生已經告訴我們了。2008/2009年美國引起的金融危機讓貧富不均越發不可收拾。美國是靠資本主義發達的,如今資本主義敗像叢生,這不但是美國的危機也是資本主義的危機。

有感而發,烏七八糟胡亂的寫下我對美國在 COVID-19 前的感想。

‘Lock HIM Up! December 9, 2019

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 美國, Trump, 川普.
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Crowd Shouts ‘Lock Him Up!’ As Cops Arrest Trump Supporter For Punching Protester

http://flip.it/OGSBwy

美國有這種無知,危險,自大而又愚蠢的總統,那美國還要敵人幹嘛?美國總統帶頭窩裏反,自己把自己搞得天翻地覆,過沒多久就會把美國從世界老大的寶座上拉下來。

China and India’s tech workers in Silicon Valley October 30, 2019

Posted by hslu in China, 特朗普, 美國, 習近平, education, Trade, Trump, 中國.
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Why China’s tech workforce can’t gain traction in Silicon Valley

by Mark Magnier; Inkstone

https://www.inkstonenews.com/tech/why-chinas-tech-workforce-cant-gain-traction-silicon-valley/article/3035536

 

I thought the article is fair and quite balanced and it spells out the weakness of China’s tech workers who are trying to make it in the U.S.

I agree with many points mentioned in this article on China’s tech workers not able to make it in Silicon Valley as well as their Indian counterparts. I believe specifically that these Chinese tech workers are Chinese students who came from China, graduated from American universities and worked primarily for software companies in the Valley. I’ll go one step further and say that what this article addresses about Chinese workers more or less happens in other industries in America too.

China’s rise threatens America’s leadership position in the world which makes American companies’ CEO, majority of them white males, nervous. Trump’s trade war and immigration policy don’t help either.

Most alarming to me is the facts that, I quote “Students, professors and researchers of Chinese descent face growing suspicion as potential spies.”

What democracy can do for you? September 19, 2019

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Democracy, Economics, Social Issues, Taiwan, Trade, Trump, 台灣, 川普, 民主, 中國.
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When prosperity trumps demands for democracy

http://flip.it/eBAqsb

In the U.S., democracy gave Americans Trump and white supremacy after Obama took the country to the extreme left. Bush Jr. invaded Afghanistan and Iraq to look for WMD. Clinton gave Americans a blue dress to remember.

Democracy split America right in the middle and left huge debt to be paid by future generations.

In Hong Kong, democracy gave the city a black eye, riots on the street, months of civil unrest and a doomed future.

Some people in Hong Kong took their anger to the street not because they don’t have freedom of expression.which they obviously do, but because their hopes for a better life were gone.

The problem was not a political one but an economic one. These protesters should blame the 2009 financial crisis started by the U.S. which gave the world unprecedented inequality, rising equity and real estate markets.

你有十萬美金嗎? August 8, 2019

Posted by hslu in Democracy, Election, Trump.
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Miami Dolphins owner fires back after anti-Trump activists plan Equinox, SoulCycle boycotts

http://flip.it/udRotP

如果你有十萬美金,你可以跟 Trump 照個相。你要是有二十五萬美金,你可以跟 Trump 吃個飯。

Quote no. 1:

Stephen Ross, owner of the NFL’s Miami Dolphins, fired back Wednesday at critics of President Trump, defending his plans to host a fundraiser for Trump on Friday at his Hamptons home on New York’s Long Island.

Trump himself is expected to attend the event, at which donors can have their photo taken with the president for $100,000 or attend a private roundtable discussion with him for $250,000, according to the Washington Post.

捲二十五萬美金,Trump 可能會給你做乃幾內亞的大使。捲十萬美金,想要再看 Trump 的機會不大,不過白宮可以讓你帶孩子在復活節去白宮的草地上找雞蛋。

你覺得你捲的 $25 美金有什麼用嗎?

Roughly 40% of American are like Trump – Racists July 16, 2019

Posted by hslu in 美國, Racial Bias, Trump, 川普.
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Trump Says ‘Many People’ Are Racist Like Him… and He’s Right

http://flip.it/QLZ6m_

A deeply divided America July 15, 2019

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, Democracy, Liberal Media, Politics, Trump, 川普.
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“This is what racism looks like:” Progressives hit back at Trump’s “go back” tweet

http://flip.it/JAXMOV

It is up to the Democrats and the liberal press to put a lid on Trump. The Republican party has become the co-conspirator to Trump’s agenda. They are helping Trump to divide the U.S. And it is a good thing for the rest of the world.

The more Trump is entangled in fighting with the other 60% of the American people, the less damage Trump can harm the world.

The bigger mess Trump can get himself in, the more he can divide this nation. As a result, America will accomplish less and it will drag the nation down from within.

Hello, Pelosi, impeach Trump. Many American people are hoping for that. I gurantee you that it will be a much more interesting show to watch. It will be more exciting than “The Apprentice”.”

Hello, AG of the SDNY, indict Trump. Make Trump loose his cool in public.

Hello, the relevant oversight Committes of the U.S. Congress, publish Trump’s tax returns and let American people see just how many billions Trump has and what kind of shady deals he has done in the past.

The more American people get to see what kind of person Trump really is, the less likely he will be in the WH in January 2021.

By then, he may go to jail for what he did in the WH.

美國的第一遭 July 6, 2019

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 美國, Democracy, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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#Unwantedivanka: awkward moment at G20 prompts slew of Trump parodies

http://flip.it/mhL3Mt

從來沒想到美國這個自稱”民主燈塔”的國家竟然也會亂搞裙帶關係,允許外戚干政。不但搞,還公開的搞。不但搞,美國總統還親自下廚搞。不但搞,這些外戚,內親還厚著臉皮的幫著搞。

國會的民主黨黨員雖然咬牙切齒,可是束手無策。共和黨黨員睜一隻眼,閉一只眼。生米都已經煮成熟飯了,這些民主黨的黨員能把 Trump 怎麽樣。

美國的媒體批評 Trump 和他的外戚內親,他們皮厚,根本不在乎。

美國的窮人忙著過日子,沒心情管這碼子事。美國的有錢人賺錢都來不及,這種事他們看多了,早就是見怪不怪了。

一個賣房子的可以做美國總統,請問,賣房子的難道不能做外交官嗎?講笑。他們雞尾酒趴去過那麽多次,總學會了一兩招吧。

你看開一點不就天下太平了嗎?你說是不是?

我本來以為這個世界上只有獨裁政權才有太子黨,公主幫,親戚派和血親門。

我錯了。美國這個民主也民主不到那裏去。

Trump the American president in training July 5, 2019

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 美國, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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Trump’s Foreign Policy Enters Its Third Phase

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/trump-tries-to-fix-his-foreign-policy-without-bolton/593284/

Source: The Atlantic

Quote:“Foreign governments now know what makes Trump tick. Pyongyang, Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and others are no doubt taking copious notes. ”

The analysis of Trump the person makes sense to me.

The death of fracking? June 30, 2019

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 石油, Energy, Global Affair, Global Warming, Oil, Trump, US Government, 川普.
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NASA just made a stunning discovery about how fracking fuels global warming – ThinkProgress

http://flip.it/oNDl9z

If enough Democratic presidential candidates make this a campaign issue it might just be enough to put an end to America’s growing oil productions from fracking.

Afterall, we are talking about NASA here.

If methane production from fracking isn’t curtailed, summer will get hotter, winter will get colder and human will have no place to hide from the wrath of the mother nature.

Well, with Trump in the WH and with many Republicans and Fox News viewers denying the study results and the connection between methane and the rise of global temperature, America will be responsible for another catastrophy just around the corner.

In 2009, America and American elites took the world for suckers and the world body didn’t do anything to punish the U.S. government.

This time around, shouldn’t something be done to make the guilty party pay and punish the guilty ones?

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