jump to navigation

從波音的吹哨人看中美博弈 March 21, 2024

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, 中國.
Tags: , , , , , , ,
add a comment

波音飛機公司的吹哨人,62歲的 John Barnett,在律師事務所作證之後的第二天早上死了。當天還有一天的詢問,可是他沒有參加。警察說他在自己車裏開槍自殺了。John Barnett 的律師說,他跟波音公司的律師作證時顯得很輕鬆,精神狀態很好,沒有一點要自殺的跡象。

John Barnett 是波音公司的員工,在公司做了二十八年,於2017年退休。退休前,他做了十五年品質管制部門的經理,他多次發現波音公司生產飛機的過程不合標準,他告訴公司的高層,可是沒有得到上級的重視,所以他將波音這些危及公共安全的問題公諸於世。

上個禮拜五,波音公司的律師詢問 John Barnett 一整天。當時他的律師也在場。第二天輪到他的律師詢問,可是他沒有按時出席。警察發現他死在停在旅館停車場的車裏。從現場的跡象顯示,他像自殺身亡。可是 John Barnett 曾經跟一個女人說過,如果他死了,絕對不是自殺。至於他為什麼死在作證之間,沒有人知道。他的律師要求警方全力調查,找出真相,因為他的死因非常耐人尋味。

我當然不知道 John Barnett 為什麼自殺,可是我知道他做事的 Boeing 公司,也就是我曾經說過的《ABC》中間的B,已經變成一個偷工減料,破舊不堪,漏洞百出的老機器。波音的飛機在天上飛,飛機上的零件卻掉落了一地。


2010年12月1號我在WordPress上有此一問:


AB, or is it ABC?

《ABC》 的A是歐盟的 Airbus(空客),B是美國的 Boeing(波音),而C當然是中國的 COMAC(中國商用飛機公司)。

這是我第一次提起中飛即將製造單一走道的商用民航飛機:C919。經過多年的努力,C919在2019年8月在上海浦東國際機場完成首飛,開啟中國民用航空新的頁章,充分的展現出大哉中國的崛起,經濟大國的底蘊,和泱泱大國的風範。

C919在2023年5月28日正式開始營運載客,中國也在盡力研究發展國產的CJ-1000A引擎來替代現在使用的,外國CFM LEAP 1C引擎。

正當C919剛剛開始起步飛飛翔的時候,世界第一大飛機製造公司,波音,內在的問題卻層出不窮。這些問題威脅到旅客的安全,公司的品質管制經理選擇將它們公諸於世。正當這個吹哨人還要繼續作證的時候,警察說他開槍自盡了。

為什麼?是不是他殺?誰開的槍?為什麼像自殺?也沒有遺書?字跡對不對?這裏面有什麼陰謀?難道波音有什麼見不得人的隱情怕被吹哨人捅出來,所以殺人滅口?誰下的命令?波音的高官知不知情?

John Barnett 的死有太多疑點,他的家人,他的朋友,他的律師恐怕會堅持讓調查局深入瞭解事實的真相,把波音的問題告訴波音飛機的旅客,讓他們知道事情的嚴重性,讓關心的人知道所有的隱情和它的來龍去脈。

讓我們看一看2024年波音公司都發生了什麼事情吧。從這些大大小小的事,說不定可以看出一點端倪。

2024年1月和2月;
1/05  阿拉斯加航空一架波音飛機機體外的面板脫落
1/13  日本ANA波音飛機飛行員前面窗戶破裂
1/19  Atlas 航空一架波音飛機因為引擎問題緊急著陸
1/20  Delta 航空一架波音飛機的前輪掉下來
1/20  聯合航空一架波音飛機起飛時輪胎爆裂
2/06  聯合航空一架波音飛機方向舵踏板在飛機降落時卡住
2/07  阿拉斯加航空一架波音飛機的機門在空中飛行時爆破。美國國家運輸安全局宣佈調查,可是因為入手不夠要等到八月才能開始。如此嚴重的失誤竟然要等五個月?
2/19  聯合航空一架波音飛機的翅膀在空中損壞
2/28  美國航空一架波音飛機飛行員前面的窗戶破裂

2024年3月才過了一半,波音飛機大大小小的事故已經發生了至少10次以上。比較嚴重的包括:

3/04  一架波音飛機的引擎著火,
3/07  一架波音飛機的輪胎掉下來,砸壞下面的汽車
3/08  一架波音飛機在跑道上行走時離開了跑道
3/11  一架波音787在發行中突然急速下降,造成數人碰到天花板而受傷
3/11   一架波音飛機液壓系統漏油

3/13  紐約時報報導FAA看到波音承包商Spirit AeroSystems的技工用肥皂液潤滑飛機門的螺栓
3/15   一架波音737飛到 Oregon 飛機場以後發現飛機肚子上的一塊面板遺失

波音最新的737 MAX飛機在2024年以前發生過更嚴重的飛難:
• 2018年10月,印度尼西亞Lion Air的一架波音737 MAX起飛後墜毀。189人死亡。波音公司總裁 Dave Calhoun 堅持737 MAX 的安全沒有問題。波音暗示飛行員有問題。

• 2019年3月,又一架波音737 MAX 飛機在衣索比亞墜毀,157人喪失生命。波音公司的 Calhoun 依然說波音737設計沒有任何問題。他堅持737 MAX 的安全不容置疑。可是經過調查發現波音737 MAX的設計有很嚴重的問題,美國國家運輸安全局才禁止737 MAX起飛。

• 證據顯示波音公司知道737 MAX 有問題,可是掩埋了證據,所以這些人才死無葬身之地。波音公司的總裁應該擔負法律責任,可是波音並沒有任何官員為這些死去的無辜的人坐牢。

•  2024年1月,737 MAX 又開始營業了。

當然,前面提到的那幾十件事件並不全是波音公司的問題。它們顯然跟個別飛機公司的維修有關係,可是有些事件波音公司無法推脫,必須負責,這是無法否認的。

十幾二十年前,美國的波音公司在全世界的航空界是一個不可一世的龍頭老大。歐盟的空客飛機製造公司在波音的陰影下苟延殘喘,努力的守住第二名的身份。從這些一連串的事故,加上吹哨人的公開指責,與他不明不白的死亡來看,波音公司的問題重重,它的內部已經開始腐敗了。

從波音過去的輝煌歲月到現在的危在旦夕和險象環生,我們看到美國最大的飛機製造公司的興衰。反觀世界霸主的美國在最近二十幾年也經歷了一段類似的羞辱的命運。

從1992年蘇聯解體以後,美國變成世界第一的霸權和欺凌弱小國家的流氓。接下來, Osama bin Laden 在2001年9月11號把美國打趴在地上。美國為了維護它的顏面,發起了一系列打不贏的戰爭,拖垮了美國的經濟和財政。美國引起的2008年次貸危機和2009年的世界金融危機,不但把美國政府搞得焦頭爛額,還把美國的中產階級打入萬劫不復的貧民窟之中,永遠無法翻身。

在這三十年之間,離開美國西海岸六千英里的中國也經歷了天大的改變。中國變得富有,變得強大,成為弱小國家的支持者。中國的COMAC飛機公司也在同時按部就班的學習,亦步亦趨的抬頭,埋頭苦幹的崛起。

它印證了中國吃苦耐勞的精神,造就了中國人民的富有,也加速了中國社會的小康。

從波音公司內在的危機和波音飛機的品質問題,我們看到一代霸主的位置搖搖欲墜。中國COMAC飛機公司穩定的成長和新一代C919飛機的初露頭角,種下了他日輝煌的前途。

同樣的,在美國,我們看到它的內在分裂,財政危機,和打不完的戰爭。而中國社會的安定,政治的穩定,奠定了它前所未有的成長和壯大。

中國的崛起凸顯出美國的衰弱。兩者尖銳的對比已經充分的被國際社會認識。接下來,美國的衰弱會加速,美國的地位會下降。取代美國在世界上的地位沒有別人,只有中國。

Blame it on Trump March 22, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Globlization, jobs, Trade, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment

The world markets will crush some more in the days and weeks to come. The severities will hinge on China’s response. If Boeing becomes the primary target of China’s retaliation against Trump’s threat, DJIA will see more triple digit drops because Boeing (BA, $319.61) accounts for 9.4% of the index.

Source: http://indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html

What does Trump’s trade war mean to you?

  • Your net worth will decline if you have IRA, Roth IRA, 401(k), 403(b), SEP-IRA, TSP, FERS or an account with any of the discount brokers.
  • The stuff you buy at your local Walmart and many other companies will be more expensive.
  • America’s trade deficits will go up. It will not go down because import goods will be morr expensive.
  • If you work for Boeing, you might see a pink slip.
  • If you work for any company affected by Trump’s action, you might see a pink slip.
  • Inflation will creep up which might force the Fed to raise interest rate faster than they have planned. The stock and bond markets don’t like that a bit. Your net worth will take more beating.
  • You will hate Trump more and vote Democrat this November. Democrats will control the House and Trump will be impeached next January. Whether Democrats have the majority of the Senate is inconsequential.
  • When the interest rate goes up, the U.S. government will pay more interest on its national debt. As a result, funding for other services has to drop unless America borrows more to pay for them.
  • If China decides to reduce its purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds, interest rates on these government bonds will go up.
  • Interest rate on student loans and credit card balances will go up. You will have less money to spend. You will be poorer than before.

If global recession comes as a result of Trump’s unilateral action on tariff, the pain on stock markets will spread far and wide.

But, is a recession likely because of a global trade war?

Consider this: In a trade war, America’s trading partners will export less and they will definitely purchase less from America.

The bottom line is: you lose whether you like Trump or not.

And what’s going to happen to Trump? Mueller is digging a hole for Trump to jump in. Trump is digging another hole for him as a backup.

First Single Aisle, now。。。。。 September 21, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics.
Tags: , , , , , , , ,
add a comment

First, Airbus’s A-320 and Boeing’s 757 will soon have a much needed competition in the single aisle aircraft market from China’s Comac ARJ21 Xiangfeng 翔鳳.

COMAC ARJ21

COMAC ARJ21

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Shimin Guhttp://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=6998514&nseq=726

For your information, below is an estimate on the market shares of various players in the world. This estimate is four years old and impact of ARJ21 isn’t included in the estimate.

Slide3

With ARJ21 is about to make delivery, Airbus’s A-380 and Boeing’s 747 will have a new competitor in this lucrative airspace, probably in 5 to 10 years.

Joint development by China and Russia in wide-body aircraft.

Joint development by China and Russia in wide-body aircraft.

Source: Yahoo Finance.

 

China knows that it doesn’t have the technological know-how now to develop this aircraft by itself. Working with Russia is a logical step to take strategically and economically. This move makes sense for Russia too because it desperately wants to move away from the commodity (reads oil) dominant economy too.

Did Obama’s animosity toward Putin in any way accelerate the joint development?

I wonder what’s the next target for China to compete in the commercial landscape: selling cars in the USA and Europe?

 

A,B & C September 3, 2015

Posted by hslu in China.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment

I talked about A, B and C four years ago. A stands for Airbus. B stands for Boeing. Four years ago, C, which stands for COMAC, just got its start a few years back.

https://hslu.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/a-b-and-c/

Fast forward four years to 2015, COMAC is getting close to introduce its first short range commercial aircraft, ARJ21. It is of course almost 50 years later than the 1968 introduction of Boeing’s 737 but it is a start.

Slide1

Source: Website

Slide2

Source: website

China still has a lot to learn and its inexperience in commercial aircraft development really shows on its struggle to solve a variety of problems found during test flights. For instance, it took a long four years for COMAC to resolve issues with the emergency landing gear system.

Addition, ARJ21 will face stiff competition not only from Airbus and Boeing but other mid-range aircraft manufactures as well: Japan’s Mitsubishi and Brazil’s Embraer S.A.

It appears that ARJ21’s success isn’t guaranteed just yet.

BTW, COMAC makes ARJ21 at a site in Shanghai’s Pudong International airport.

 

 

AirTeamImages

 

 

A, B and C? January 18, 2011

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Global Affair, jobs, Politics.
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,
add a comment

Remember what I said about AB and C?

A is Airbus.

B of course is Boeing.

And C of course is China’s C919’s built by Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China.

C919 is a single-aisle airplane for mid-range flights. It is designed to carry about 200 passengers.

Watch out, Airbus and Boeing. This market is yours to lose.

One industry at a time, China will eat American’s lunch.

As President Hu begin his visit to the US, many companies want to do business with China because that’s where the money is.

Free market capitalism is what US has been promoting all over the world for the past 3 or 4 decades. If the US is not careful, this premier industry will face significant competition just like the auto industriy have been facing for the past 30 years. GM, Chrysler and Ford were thoroughly defeated bhttps://hslu.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=4745&action=edit&message=6y auto companies from Japan and Korea. Although these companies have been able to survive the Great Recession so far with government intervention, India’s Toto and China’s auto companies are waiting to enter the US market when the time is right.

Twenty or thirty years from now, where will Boeing be? Will Boeing’s labor union be the last straw that breaks the camel’s back?

AB, or is it ABC? November 30, 2010

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Global Affair, jobs.
Tags: , , , , ,
add a comment

A stands for Airbus.

B, of course, is Boeing.

In a few year, AB will have a new competition and it is Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, or Comac.

And what kind of airplane does Comac make? The answer is C919, a 160-seat single aisle air plane.

For many decades, Boeing’s 737 single aisle air plane has been the the bread and butter of Boeing.

But, unfortunately for Boeing and Airbus, C919 is formidable competition because the single aisle airplane market is yours to lose.

Here are a few more details of C919:

  • Detailed design to be completed in 2012,
  • Maiden flight in 2014,
  • On the market in 2014,
  • Fuel consumption  is 12 –  15% of that of similar planes,
  • Carbon emissions reduced by 50 %.

Hmm…, how many US jobs will be lost in this industry and its deep and wide supply chains?