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Blame it on Trump March 22, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Globlization, jobs, Trade, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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The world markets will crush some more in the days and weeks to come. The severities will hinge on China’s response. If Boeing becomes the primary target of China’s retaliation against Trump’s threat, DJIA will see more triple digit drops because Boeing (BA, $319.61) accounts for 9.4% of the index.

Source: http://indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html

What does Trump’s trade war mean to you?

  • Your net worth will decline if you have IRA, Roth IRA, 401(k), 403(b), SEP-IRA, TSP, FERS or an account with any of the discount brokers.
  • The stuff you buy at your local Walmart and many other companies will be more expensive.
  • America’s trade deficits will go up. It will not go down because import goods will be morr expensive.
  • If you work for Boeing, you might see a pink slip.
  • If you work for any company affected by Trump’s action, you might see a pink slip.
  • Inflation will creep up which might force the Fed to raise interest rate faster than they have planned. The stock and bond markets don’t like that a bit. Your net worth will take more beating.
  • You will hate Trump more and vote Democrat this November. Democrats will control the House and Trump will be impeached next January. Whether Democrats have the majority of the Senate is inconsequential.
  • When the interest rate goes up, the U.S. government will pay more interest on its national debt. As a result, funding for other services has to drop unless America borrows more to pay for them.
  • If China decides to reduce its purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds, interest rates on these government bonds will go up.
  • Interest rate on student loans and credit card balances will go up. You will have less money to spend. You will be poorer than before.

If global recession comes as a result of Trump’s unilateral action on tariff, the pain on stock markets will spread far and wide.

But, is a recession likely because of a global trade war?

Consider this: In a trade war, America’s trading partners will export less and they will definitely purchase less from America.

The bottom line is: you lose whether you like Trump or not.

And what’s going to happen to Trump? Mueller is digging a hole for Trump to jump in. Trump is digging another hole for him as a backup.

First Single Aisle, now。。。。。 September 21, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics.
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First, Airbus’s A-320 and Boeing’s 757 will soon have a much needed competition in the single aisle aircraft market from China’s Comac ARJ21 Xiangfeng 翔鳳.

COMAC ARJ21

COMAC ARJ21

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Shimin Guhttp://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=6998514&nseq=726

For your information, below is an estimate on the market shares of various players in the world. This estimate is four years old and impact of ARJ21 isn’t included in the estimate.

Slide3

With ARJ21 is about to make delivery, Airbus’s A-380 and Boeing’s 747 will have a new competitor in this lucrative airspace, probably in 5 to 10 years.

Joint development by China and Russia in wide-body aircraft.

Joint development by China and Russia in wide-body aircraft.

Source: Yahoo Finance.

 

China knows that it doesn’t have the technological know-how now to develop this aircraft by itself. Working with Russia is a logical step to take strategically and economically. This move makes sense for Russia too because it desperately wants to move away from the commodity (reads oil) dominant economy too.

Did Obama’s animosity toward Putin in any way accelerate the joint development?

I wonder what’s the next target for China to compete in the commercial landscape: selling cars in the USA and Europe?

 

A,B & C September 3, 2015

Posted by hslu in China.
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I talked about A, B and C four years ago. A stands for Airbus. B stands for Boeing. Four years ago, C, which stands for COMAC, just got its start a few years back.

https://hslu.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/a-b-and-c/

Fast forward four years to 2015, COMAC is getting close to introduce its first short range commercial aircraft, ARJ21. It is of course almost 50 years later than the 1968 introduction of Boeing’s 737 but it is a start.

Slide1

Source: Website

Slide2

Source: website

China still has a lot to learn and its inexperience in commercial aircraft development really shows on its struggle to solve a variety of problems found during test flights. For instance, it took a long four years for COMAC to resolve issues with the emergency landing gear system.

Addition, ARJ21 will face stiff competition not only from Airbus and Boeing but other mid-range aircraft manufactures as well: Japan’s Mitsubishi and Brazil’s Embraer S.A.

It appears that ARJ21’s success isn’t guaranteed just yet.

BTW, COMAC makes ARJ21 at a site in Shanghai’s Pudong International airport.

 

 

AirTeamImages

 

 

A, B and C? January 18, 2011

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Global Affair, jobs, Politics.
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Remember what I said about AB and C?

A is Airbus.

B of course is Boeing.

And C of course is China’s C919’s built by Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China.

C919 is a single-aisle airplane for mid-range flights. It is designed to carry about 200 passengers.

Watch out, Airbus and Boeing. This market is yours to lose.

One industry at a time, China will eat American’s lunch.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/18/business/global/18plane.html?_r=1&emc=tnt&tntemail1=y

As President Hu begin his visit to the US, many companies want to do business with China because that’s where the money is.

Free market capitalism is what US has been promoting all over the world for the past 3 or 4 decades. If the US is not careful, this premier industry will face significant competition just like the auto industriy have been facing for the past 30 years. GM, Chrysler and Ford were thoroughly defeated bhttps://hslu.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=4745&action=edit&message=6y auto companies from Japan and Korea. Although these companies have been able to survive the Great Recession so far with government intervention, India’s Toto and China’s auto companies are waiting to enter the US market when the time is right.

Twenty or thirty years from now, where will Boeing be? Will Boeing’s labor union be the last straw that breaks the camel’s back?

AB, or is it ABC? November 30, 2010

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Global Affair, jobs.
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A stands for Airbus.

B, of course, is Boeing.

In a few year, AB will have a new competition and it is Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, or Comac.

And what kind of airplane does Comac make? The answer is C919, a 160-seat single aisle air plane.

For many decades, Boeing’s 737 single aisle air plane has been the the bread and butter of Boeing.

But, unfortunately for Boeing and Airbus, C919 is formidable competition because the single aisle airplane market is yours to lose.

Here are a few more details of C919:

  • Detailed design to be completed in 2012,
  • Maiden flight in 2014,
  • On the market in 2014,
  • Fuel consumption  is 12 –  15% of that of similar planes,
  • Carbon emissions reduced by 50 %.

Hmm…, how many US jobs will be lost in this industry and its deep and wide supply chains?

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