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Nationalistic tide in China will rise June 7, 2019

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, 習近平, Economics, Trade, Travel, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Lenovo branded ‘unpatriotic’ by Chinese consumers in nationalistic backlash

http://flip.it/V96ljK

American companies which will take the first hits are Apple, Boeing and GM. Other notable American companies such as Starbucks, McDonald’s and Pizza Hut, will suffer too. Their revenue will drop and EPS will take a hit. Stock market will take notice because recession is not very far away.

Chinese tourists to the U.S. will decrease. Chinese students studying at U.S. universities will gradually drop.

Buckle up. Things will become very ugly in a hurry.

The Unintended Consequences of Trump’s Tariffs March 7, 2019

Posted by hslu in 美國, Economics, Trade, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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The Unintended Consequences of Trump’s Tariffs

http://flip.it/cFgD9s

Trump’s trade wars against the world haven’t done well so far according to last year’s trade deficit figures and it was the poor Americans who have been paying for the higher import prices.

Sadly, they have no one but Trump to thank for especially those who voted him into the White House.

It’s Trump’s fault July 12, 2018

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 美國, Trade, Trump.
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Collateral damage in the U.S. from Trump’s trade war with China has already begun. How much of an impact to the U.S. job market before November election is anybody’s guess.

Source: CNBC

If you think this looks bad just wait until Trump’s upcoming tariff on $200 billion goods from China begin to bite into the U.S. economy and American consumers’ pockets. Things sold in Walmart could get more expensive thanks to Trump and his desire to get more Republicans re-elected in November.

This is the root problem of the U.S. democracy: pandering to the voters to keep politians’ jobs.

If the Republican doesn’t hold on to their majority, Maxine Waters will be the Chairwoman of a powerful committee and she’s will for sure impeach Trump.

U.S. , China trade war July 8, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Trade, Trump, 川普, 中國.
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http://flip.it/LtN8LH

這篇文章把美國和中國貿易談判的過程,伎倆和結果說的很清楚。Andrew Sorkin 很年輕,他是 CNBC 清早 Squawk Box 的主持人,我看他的節目已經十幾年了。

Peter Navarro 反對中國幾十年。他主張嚴厲懲罰中國。 Steven Muncin 是美國的財政部長,華爾街的人。沒有什麽貿易和談判經驗,對中國沒有研究,是一個 lightweight. Larry Kudlow 是 Reagan 總統的白宮 budget 主任,主張降低公司稅,降低關稅,strong U.S. dallar, 經常在 CNBC 上節目,是一個 free trader。他反對增加 tarrif,極力支持自由貿易已經幾十年了。他是 Trump 的白宮 budget 主任,跟 Narvarro 是對頭。

最近一兩個月才上臺的。Wilbur Ross 是美國的商業部長,是華爾街股票專家,經常上 CNBC ,以前看好中國投資前景,極力主張買中國股票的人。Trump 找他做商業部長以後才改口說中國不好。這幾個人都六七十歲了,除了 Munchin以外,其他幾個人我十幾年前就知道他們。。Wilbur Ross 看起來最老,已經八十歲了。還有一個美國的專家,這篇文章好像沒有提到他:Robert Lighthither。他是美國的談判代表。我不知道他是誰,以前也沒有在電視上看過他。

Trump 已經宣佈 ZTE 只要再罰 $1.0 billion 就可以再跟美國做生意了。這是美國的王牌,可是 Trump 沒有用它,不知道 ZTE 的美國下游公司是不是說了什麼。ZTE 公司總裁和所有高級官員都在美國遊說幾十天了。可能也有幫助。這是非常輕的懲罰。還有中國在四月八號開博鼇論壇。習近平去海南島的琼海市主持博鼇論壇時就說要增加進口美國的貨品了。這是在Trump 罰 ZTE 和貿易談判以前的事。

至於 Trump 以後還會不會對中國提出什麼要求現在來說也是太早。不過,就像這篇文章中說的:這一次中美談判,美國確實沒有佔到便宜。我也覺得很意外。

君子報仇十年不晚 June 15, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Congress, 特朗普, 美國, 習近平, Economics, Globlization, Trade, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Source: Bloomberg

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http://flip.it/YnRIaH

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I don’t know which side will come out ahead in this trade war between China and the U.S. but I believe the ongoing tech embargo against China will definitely put a dent on China’s “Made in China 2025” initiative. Don’t forget that ZTE’s fate, possibly Huawei’s too, is still in the hands of Trump and the U.S. Congress. It’s unfortunate that China doesn’t have anything equivalent to counter America’s punch.

However, this is not the whole story: The U.S. is not fighting a trade war with China alone. The U.S. is fighting with China, Japan, Russia, Iran, Koreas, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela and the EU, It’s not just China will retaliate, many other countries will retaliate too. All at the same time. Can Trump and America’s labor market take this assult from all sides at the same times?

I don’t think so.

A better question is: Can Trump states’ economies take the attacks before the November election?

The answer is: no.

The next logic question to ask is then: can Trump survive impeachment if Democrats take the House and the Senate in November after Trump’s trade war begins to inflict damages to the U.S. economy?

Definitely not.

As the excerpt below states, the current setback on China’s tech arms race against the U.S. isn’t all bad: there might be a silver lining for China after all.

Source: Bloomberg

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Chinese often say that “君子報仇十年不晚.” It means that “a gentleman will have his revenge in ten years.” Xi Jinping, of course, is very familiar with this concept when he deals with Trump and whoever comes after him. Trump is in the game for instant gratification and political payback. China is in it for the long haul and Xi Jinping knows it.

Well, China just got whacked by a 2×4. But, the curse could be a blessing in disguise. Chinese call this “轉機. 2025 is 7 years from now and the U.S. will do all it can to stop China from reaching this goal. But, China is no longer a 省油的燈. Even though the threat is very real and the enemy is formidable, China, with its steadfast resolve, a stable political system, the accumulation of wealth and the support of the Chinese people, will push ahead and work out a way to reach its goal in time. If it can’t be done in 7 years, China will do it by 2028 and has its revenge in 10 years if necessary.

Good for them! Go Canada! June 14, 2018

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 美國, Trade, Trump.
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Canadians are boycotting US goods, Trump over tariffs

http://flip.it/ITOloE

The resentment turns into actions. Way to go!

It’s only fair to retaliate June 11, 2018

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 石油, 美國, Economics, Energy, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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https://www.yahoo.com/newsroom/vibes/white-house/v-dd114874-7083-393e-8bf1-0ac1f74868c1_c-32d03981-e37a-3a14-bd3d-53e003c70c99_a-32d03981-e37a-3a14-bd3d-53e003c70c99

Since Trump unilaterally stabbed Canada in the back first, Canada has to retaliate. Now that Trump was humiliated by Trudeau, Trudeau has risen in ranks to became Trump’s public enemy number 1.

Since this was seen as an unforgivable sin by Trumpright before he meets Kim tomorrow, he immediately sent in 2 attacking dogs to ripped Trudeau apart and warned him of serious consequences to come. More tarrif against Canada is coming and it will be more severe than the one on the table now.

Our family was in Canada for a year and half in the late 80’s. I sensed a little resentment from my Canadian colleagues because I came from the U.S. My salary was nearly 50% higher than my counterpart in Canada because our salaries were the same in figures but I got paid in USD while they got paid in loonies. At that time, one Canadian loonie was worth 68 cents USD.

I eventually won them over by hard work and by completely blending myself into the project team. My original one year contract got extended to a year and half. Finally my manager called me back to the U.S. because he couldn’t afford the extra cost associated with Canadian tax and extra bonuses for working in a foreign country. Canadians don’t like the U.S. at all because Canada was poorer, its economy was controlled byAmerican economy and, worst of them all, Canadians didn’t get any respect from Americans. For that, Canadians hated the U.S. And I have all the reasons in the world to believe that that sentiment hasn’t changed at all.

Canada will fight Trump with all they have even though they will pay for it with higher prices and escalating inflation in years to come. I support Canada and wish them go all the way to fight Trump.

By working with China and sell more crude oil to them, maybe?

To China, Trump is a product of a failed political system May 24, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Trade, Trump, 川普, 中國.
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https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/why-china-is-winning-the-trade-war

All American politicians, starting from Trump, can’t look pass beyond their next elections.

China plans for decade and longer.

China views Trump as a disease of democracy which needs to be taken care of at this juncture.

Read this article and you’ll understand the mindset of China’s leaders when they confront Trump’s shifting tactics.

China knows what it wants and will not back down on this demand. China also knows its weakness, e.g..ZTE, and is willing to yield to some of Trump’s demands. It will make Trump looks good while fulfil China’s objectives.

No one knows what Trump’s trade policy is but China is willing to deal with him and use it to make the necessary changes to the structure of China’s economy which China urgently needs.

Every crisis is an opportunity.

Currently, the unpredictable Trump is a crisis. ZTE is a crisis.

The opportunity is the transformation of the Chinese economy. The opportunity is an urgent push to be able to make most of the semiconductors China needs in China.

所謂:兵來將擋,水來土掩。魔高一尺,道高一丈。危機就是轉機。

白髮人對黑髮人 May 24, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, 特朗普, 美國, Trade, 中國.
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美國白髮老禿頭跟中國黑髮知青打擂台。

有意思。

Trade war: China vs. the U.S. May 21, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Military, Trade, Trump, 川普, 中國.
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https://theconversation.com/why-china-cant-meet-trumps-200-billion-trade-demand-96888

There are ways to reduce trade deficitsif you look hard enough:

  1. America can sell these to China and reduce trade deficits very quickly: F-35s, F-22s, MQ9 Reaper Drones, Black Knights, XM2010 sniper rifles, THAAD anti-ballistic missile defense systems and Ford class aircraft carriers.
  1. Alternatively, Trump can order American people stop buying products made in China. That will change the trade deficit to a trade surplu

Actually, an trade deficit of $357 billion isn’t such a big deal, it’s only ~2% of the U.S. economy. Besides, if it won’t for the deflation China exports to the U.S., American people will be a lot poorer than they are now.

On the other hand, with daily products more expensive to buy, American people may learn to live within their means and cut up a few credit cards in their purses or wallets.

That may not be a bad thing if American people learn some financial discipline for a change.

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