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Iran, US and Centrifuges July 13, 2014

Posted by hslu in Global Affair.
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                 U.S.                     Iran

Centrifuges     Less than 1,000    10,000 and higher

Inspections     Unannounced         We need to be prepared

Operation       Ten year delay        One year delay

Source: Google searched image

 

 

 

P5+1 Conference has been in progress but Russia and China won’t be there. So it will be a P3+1 meeting. In the mean time, Iran is working nonstop on uranium upgrade in one of the underground bases. The point that Iran being one of the nuclear power countries has been conceded by Obama and America and it will be a matter of time when Iran has the nuclear weapon capability.

The conference will not yield any positive results and the worst outcome will be sanction restated by the U.S. against Iran. You can have all the talks you want, Iran will not back down.

Question: If Saudi Arabia wants to develop nuclear weapon capability, will the United States put on a trade sanction against the kingdom? Saudi has money. Nuclear weapon technology can be purchased from the market. They can hire a team of experts to work for them. They’s have nuclear weapon in probably less than 10 years from now.

中東永無安寧之日. No peace in the Middle East.

 

U.S. standing in the world is falling fast December 5, 2013

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Global Affair, Islam, Military, Muslim, Obama, Politics.
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The survey said it all (chart below from Pew Research.) It is sad to watch but it was inevitable. The US empire is heading into sunset with Obama leading the charge. The process will be slow and Chinese has a saying for it too: ”百足之虫,死而不僵.“

Source: Pew Research, December 3, 2013

Source: Pew Research Center, December 3, 2013

For almost seven decades since the end of WWII, the US has used two powerful weapons very effectively to bring other countries in line: US dollar and its military. it is still true but they have been less effective to say the least.

Don’t get me wrong, the United States still has a lot of money not because the US is the largest creditor in the world but because the US dollar is world’s reserve currency. Here the landscape is slowly changing and the US isn’t doing anything about it, yet: the US owes a lot of money to other countries and is running a trillion dollar or so deficit every year. Its $17 trillion dollar federal debt, unfunded liabilities and other government debts will break American tax payers’ back soon. In short, the US is broke and is fast running out of money to give it away.

The bigger problem is that the US dollar’s reserve currency status has been challenged by IMF and many other countries who don’t want to hold a currency with declining value. The push to move away from the US dollar as the world reserve currency is accelerating with IMF readies its Special Drawing Right (SDR) or some other form of currency to take place of the US dollar. Something will happen within the next decade and when it happens, the glory days of the US empire are numbered. it will be ugly. And whoever had assests in US dollar better be prepared for its demise.

America still has the most powerful and advanced weapons in the world. No other countries has any hope of over taking US’s leadership position any time soon. However, the lead is shrinking with Al Qaeda and related organizations regrouping in many parts of the world and China slowly building up its navy and air force in recent years. Many other countries, India, Pakistan, North Korea, etc. have their own nuclear arsenals too. Besides, where will the US going to come up with money to keep its lead in the never ending arm race? With more debt of course. But it can’t be sustained in the long run. Remember, America is broke.

America’s foreign policy is a mess.

Hillary didn’t do a lot other than taking expensive trips all over the world making speeches. Nothing of any significant consequence got done under her.

Obama drew a “red line” in the sand and warned Syria of grave consequence if it dared to cross it. Well, for a couple of years, Bashar al-Assad did it time and time again. Obama kept warning Assad but did nothing to stop him. Finally, Putin, among all foreign country leaders, came to the rescue and gave Obama a black eye for all Arab countries to see. Obama messed up on Arab Spring and didn’t know whom to back in Egypt and couldn’t even decide whether overthrowing its first elected president, president Morsi, by the military was a coup or not. Yet, foreign aid in the form of fighter jets and other weapons continued to flow to Egyptian military as we speak. The whole episode was simply comical.

Obama also projected an image of profound weakness in Benghazi where four Americans, including American Ambassador to Libya, were killed on September 11, 2012. There was talk of a video, justice for the dead, retaliation and finally a cover-up by the Obama administration, but nothing has happened either. It was all speeches and no action.

Then there was Snowden, the hijack and grounding of Bolivia president’s private airplane, the uproar against America throughout Latin America, Snowden’s one-year asylum in Russia thanks to Putin and the fall out from NSA’s monitoring of American citizens, world leaders and many other’s emails, social media activities and phone conversations. The worst of them all was the self-appointed human rights’ guardian, America, was totally exposed for its brazen disregard of other’s people’s privacy and human dignity. China has something for this too: 挂羊头卖狗肉。It is also called: 了无羞耻。The world now knows what America really is: a hypocrite. But it was a hypocrite with all kinds of weapons in its hands. 

Of course, we can’t ignore Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. So many American soldiers died for Iraq but the US was chased out of Iraq. Iraqis simply didn’t want America in their country. Obama nonetheless learned his lesson from the failure in Iraq and is trying to keep some US soldiers in Afghanistan enticed with more US foreign aids. The decision was to come at the end of the year but Harmid Karzai wanted to delay it. 

Then there was Iran.

Kerry got Iran to talk and agree to curb its atomic activities in exchange for less sanctions. Yet, not much has changed because Iran insisted on continuing its uranium enrichment operation. Well, Iran certainly bought more time to work on a nuclear weapon and at the same time got the sanction monkey off its back. Kerry and Obama did well too: they took credit for contribute to peace in Middle East until one day Iran shows up with a nuclear weapon just like North Korea did under Clinton with the help of the worst American president in recent history: Carter. History probably will repeat itself and a war may be in the works. Well, what’s ironic with this whole thing was that many Democrats in Obama’s own party oppose the deal with Iran. We’ll just have to wait and see here.

And let’s not forget Israel since we are talking about Iran here. Contrary to all previous US presidents who have backed Israel in the past, Obama chose to isolate and humiliate Israel; I guessed, as a goodwill gesture to Arabs and Middle East countries. He definitely succeed in putting Israel in a precarious position and has truly demonstrated that he desperately wanted to be treated as a Muslim by other Arabs.

It appears that the US has very fewer friend in the world. Arabs don’t like the US other than its money and weapons. NSA has monitored Merkel’s cell phone for many years and Obama lied when he told her that he knew nothing about it. I don’t think Germans believed anything Obama said.Many European countries hate America because the Great Recession engineered by US Federal Reserve Bank, Wall Street, large US banks and many other financial institutions. The United States is solely responsible for the miseries many Europeans are facing now: 25% unemployment rate, five years recession in some countries, huge reduction is people’s living standards and massive destruction of people’s wealth, just to name a few.

Well, then there is Japan.

Japan is on the top of the list because the US is spending billions and billions of our tax dollars to defend the island country. Japan has to listen to the US because it has few military options. All Japanese leaders can do is to visit the Yasukuni Shrine which honors Japan’s war dead, including convicted war criminals and mass murderers from World War II. The US has to spend its own money to defend Japan because America bombed Japan with two atomic bombs during WWII. After achieving phenomenon economic growth in the 1980’s, Japan is currently in such a sorry state (The Lost decade,) primarily because of Plaza Accord engineered by America. Ever since that historical and unprecedented event in NYC, Japan took 20 years to sink its country into a debt hole so deep that it has no way to dig itself out of. For that, a generation of Japanese people have no one but America to thank for. What puzzles me was that Japan still call America a friend. Having a friend like this who was responsible for its demise for the past 20+ years, Japan doesn’t need an enemy at all.

Tension has been high in Eastern Pacific recently. The big question is this: Will US send its soldiers to fight for Japan over a few islands in the Pacific Ocean? Japan certainly likes that idea but I don’t think Americans are ready for another war after Iraq and Afghanistan. Besides, the US has almost ran out of money and time until the world decides to dump US dollar and go for something else. 

If that happens, anyone who holds American dollar will become poorer probably overnight and the once mighty empire will forever lose its glory.

Even though the show has just started, we already knew what the ending will look like.

History will repeat itself and we all knew it too well: Rome, Portugal, Spain, France and Great Britain.

The next one will be the United States.

 

马英九 can teach Obama a Lesson October 23, 2013

Posted by hslu in Congress, Global Affair, Obama, Obamacare, Politics, Taiwan.
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Of course, 马英九 can learn something from Obama too.

By extension, 国民党 should take a page out of Democrats when it comes to protecting its leader, 马英九 .

From 马英九  to Obama:

Obama should:

  1. Bow to American citizens on national TV for lying to American people on everything he said on Obamacare such as cheaper by $2,500 for everyone, keep you doctor if you want to and stay with the same insurance company if you so desire. He should admit that Obamacare the product has officially changed to Obamashame.
  2. Obama then should formed an independent but Democratic leaning committee to investigate who did what wrong; starting from Obama all the way down to project engineers and software engineers.. Obama should then set the records straight on national TV and tells American people what Obamashame really is.
  3. Obama should fire Sibelius for utterly incompetency and lie to the Congress.
  4. Obama should at Sibelius’s farewell party praise her for her loyalty and for taking the heat and protect Obama from being the target of the criticism.
  5. Fire everyone involved in this project starting from the government liaison to the contractors, his or her bosses, project engineers, project managers, section managers and division managers. Take out their retirement benefits and ask them pay for the damage too.

马英九 can learn these from Obama:

  1. Never bow to Taiwanese people on national TV. Once you bow, you are telling others that this was my fault. The case in point: Army corporal 洪仲丘 was tortured to death while serving his duty in July 2013. Someone else did it. Not 马英九.
  2. Don’t admit any mistake. 死不认账也 because once 马英九 admit he made a mistake, 马英九 will then own the hot potato and he’ll instantly become the target for 民进党。马英九 will 吃不完兜着走。
  3. 马英九 should go on national TV and start doing his best to preach the idea,  sell the products or explain the idea to Taiwanese people. Remember your target audience is the ones who are on the other side of the fence; i.e., 民进党。
  4. Holding back on firing anyone in your party until it becomes necessary. Let your subordinates defend their positions until it requires your attention. You don;t have to everything yourself.
  5. Start focusing on something else. Have your spokesperson say that you will be on vacation, play golf, fly to South America or Africa on an unexpected visit.
  6. Tell Taiwanese people that your idea is the best one government has come up with. Tell them once. Tell them twice. Tell them three times. Have you people go on national TV too. After you tell them a thousand times, it will be a good idea. Lie if you have to. Obama did it all the time. Many, not all, liberals in America are very gullible. They don’t think. They follow because they are blind to the facts. Taiwanese people maybe like them too.

Now, this is what 国民党 and every 国民党员 can learn from the Democrats:

Democrats circle the wagon to protect their own; be it Obama, Obamashame, Sibelius, Dodd, Frank or Rangel. Until the last minute: such as Anthony Weiner of NY. Democrat is united. This is why they defeated Republicans all the time.

Of course, Republicans are fighting a losing battle because the liberal media, such as CNN, NYT, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, is not on their sides. Not even once.

Above all, when chief justice Roberts is on Obama’s side, misguided he maybe, Obama got it made. Period.

Poor 马英九,he always end up as 众矢之的 when someone else made The mistake。

 

 

October 16, 2013 – Point of No Return October 16, 2013

Posted by hslu in Congress, Economics, Energy, Global Affair, Health Insurance, Military, Obamacare, Oil, Politics, Taxes.
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The war against big government in the United States was lost today. Conservatives are defeated. They are out-numbered. America will collectively pick up its steps toward a big and socialist government for decades to come. Obamacare will be even more difficult to repeal, Democrats will rule the Congress and national debt will pile up year after year until the entire nation is crushed under its weight with no means to ever pay for it.

The fundamental problem is this:

Democrats are like Santa Claus; they pass out free gifts to Americans every month of every year. The majority of Americans like handouts and they will keep Democrats in power. They do not care whether the nation can afford it or not. Everyone wants to have a piece of the pie and they will leave someone else to pay for it.

The surge of shale oil and shale gas productions will delay the day of reckoning because the way America goes about it is like someone is spending his or her inheritance money. The domestic productions will reduce trade deficits, stimulate the economy and help with taxes. Once the inheritance money starts to run out in 10 to 15 years as shale oil productions peak, the rapid build up of national debt will continue and the United States will forever pay a larger share of its taxes to service the debt.

If the status of the reserve currency of the green back is in doubt, which will come someday as other nations lost confidence in US’s ability to pay back its debt, the death knell will sound and the empire will fade away along with its 10 air carriers floating in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

The drama has begun. It can not be stopped. It has reached to the point of no return.

The date is October 16, 2013. This is the day the Conservatives are marginalized.

Obama and big government win.

 

Summary of the Economy and Financial Markets October 5, 2013

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Energy, Euro, Global Affair, Gold, jobs, Oil, stocks.
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I wrote this short report for my friends in Dallas yesterday; October 4, 2013. It helps me to get a grip of what’s going on in the financial market. It is a very simple and brief summary of what’s important over the last month on Bonds, stocks, crude oil and gold. I am learning to spot investment opportunities and I thought understanding the macro economics is essential.

  • The Fed delayed tapering due to deteriorating economy and pending gov. shutdown.

    • Unemployment rate @ 7.3%; Labor participation rate @ 63.2%; lowest since 1970.
    • U6 remains at ~14%; 90,473,000 not in Labor Force – BLS data.
    • Stock market popped due to QE but gave back gains 3 days after- A concern!
    • Treasuries rallied: 10-year Bond yield to decline from ~3% (record low: ~1.40%.) Watch TBT.
    • Government shut down and pending debt ceiling fight (2 weeks) will impede rally
    • Emerging markets had relief rallies.
    • Countries with current account deficits continue to see market/currency decline.
    • India and Indonesia in trouble.
  • Crude oil and metals continue to trade lower;
    • China slow down weighs and Inflation absent.
    • Bull market in gold ran out of steam.
    • Economy needs to pick up steam to see crude oil and gold moving higher.
  • European economic conditions improved but recoveries slow to come.
    • Merkel stayed on for 3rd term. Steady as she goes. No major policy change.
    • Recession may be over.
    • Sovereign debt yields declining: Spain and Italy 10-year Treasury yield. LT buy?
  • Japan
    • Business confidence improves: capital investment up 5.1%
    • GDP up 3.8% in Q2 2013; revised up from 2.6%. 4.1% in Q1 2013.
    • Sales tax increased to 8% (4/2014) from 5%. Up to 10% in 2015.
    • Government: ¥10 trillion (~$100 B) stimulus: lower than expected. GDP = $5.96 trillion.
    • BOJ on target to increase currency float. Deflation may be over.
    • Debt: ¥1,000+ trillion. Deficit: 40+% spending borrowed. Structural reform from Abe not enough.
    • DXJ and YCS are still in play. US government shutdown affected Nikkei’s decline and yen’s strength.
  • Chin Economy expanded at ~7.5%
    • 12-5 is in progress (2011 – 2015): sustainable growth of 7%, industrial upgrading and the promotion of domestic consumption. 11-5 expected 7.5%. Actual 11%.
    • 10 new cities to accommodate 250 million people from farms: urbanization
    • 户口制度to relax?
    • Shanghai Free-Trade Zone: testing for 2-3 years. To expand to other areas.
    • Preparation for a floating 人民币?
    • More countries signed up for direct exchange with人民币: by-pass US dollar.
    • China ADRs could be good investments.

 

The Retreat of the Decade September 1, 2013

Posted by hslu in Congress, Global Affair, Islam, Military, Muslim, Obama, Politics, Religion.
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Obama explained last Saturday to the nation on his decision to seek congressional approval to bomb Syria:

“while I believe I have the authority to carry out this military action without specific congressional authorization, I know that the country will be stronger if we take this course, and our actions will be even more effective.”

In plain English on Obama’s Retreat of the Decade:

“while I believed I blinked on the last minute and acted like a chicken, I know that the country will not blame it on me, and the hot potato I have created will be on Congress’s lap.”

Kerry, can you shut your mouth?

With these words, Obama washed his hands on Syria and step down the ladder he drew for himself.

Obama saw the polls and knew majority of Americans were against bombing Syria. His rationale was: “长痛不如短痛, I will deal with Natenyahu and Putin‘s “冷嘲热讽” at a later date.

It’s more like the no-gut-Obama’s “Retreat of the Century.”

Obama now hides behind the beloved Congress. Let them have some fun too.

Obama is looking for a 台阶 on Syria August 31, 2013

Posted by hslu in Cold War, Congress, Global Affair, Islam, Military, Muslim, Obama, Politics, Religion.
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Obama has found a 台阶: US Congress.

He didn’t look for approval from Congress on Libya.

He said that he is going to ask for approval from Congress because his neck is the only one up there.

When Congress votes against military action, Obama will hide behind the resolution and stay behind the red line he drew for himself.

I knew what Obama is doing. American people know what Obama is doing. Putin knows what Obama is doing and he is making fun of Obama at Kremlin now.

Question to Obama: Chemical weapon is WMD, according to you. Are hundreds of tanks or hundreds of cruise missiles MWD too?

All are capable of killing hundreds of thousands of people at the same time and many of them are no doubt innocent civilians.

Hmmm…..

 

We are friends. Just don’t drag me to war August 31, 2013

Posted by hslu in Global Affair, Islam, Military, Muslim, Obama, Politics, Religion.
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George Osborne, the U.K. finance minister, told BBC Friday: “The relationship with the United States is a very old one, very deep and operates on many layers.”

But, Obama, please don’t drag us into your war with Syria.

Go ahead, Obama, you can do it by yourself. Assad is no match to your carriers, destroyers and cruise missiles.

We’ll watch it on our TV.

Of course, good politicians don’t say what they really want to say. They lie all the time.

George Osborne is a fine politician.

Obama hides behind the red line August 29, 2013

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Congress, Global Affair, Islam, Muslim, Obama, Religion.
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Obama drew a red line in the sand for Assad and warned that it’s a line he shall not cross.

“You shall not use chemical weapons, period.” so said the world leader Obama.

Well,we now know that chemical weapons were used in Syria and US has pictures, patients, bodies and phone conversations, provided by NSA in Maryland of course,  to proof that Syria had used it on its own people.

It’s apparent that the red line has been crossed and our world leader is prepared to deliver his promise; he was eager to bomb Syria as if the US didn’t have enough enemies in Middle East already.

Assets were put in place. Destroyers got their 200 or so cruises missiles ready. Air carriers were sent there on the double.

Targets have been chosen and America is willing to take collateral damages. This is war, come on. Innocent people die in the war, period. Besides they aren’t Americans. The all mighty United States can’t help it. We have already done our best. What more are you asking for, anyway?

Everyone in the military was ready to take down Assad’s regime and all the brass in Pentagon was waiting for was the order from the community organizer from Chicago.

“War is imminent,” we we told in uncertain terms by the WH spokeswoman.

“It could come as early as Thursday.” Rumors flied as if bombing was just around the corner.

Wall Street was on the edge. Dow Jones dropped a couple hundred points. Crude oil traders were on the move. Gold made a four month high. The unknown gripped the financial and currency markets. The entire world was sitting on a bed of needles.

Then a day or two passed. A lot of smoke from the WH but there was no action.

In the mean time, Russia warned US not to do it. Assad vowed to defend his nation. Iran wanted to start a regional war. Israel was nervous. China advised caution.

All the sudden, the red line changed into a black line and Obama is desperately looking for a way out; we called this “Obama 在找一个台阶下。”

Well, 台阶 may not be there for Obama to step down in the minds of millions of Muslims in the world.

To them Obama had just turned into a chicken and they now dare Obama to start bombing.

 

Bomb Syria? Obama better think twice August 29, 2013

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Congress, Global Affair, Islam, Military, Muslim, Obama, Politics, Religion.
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Who gave Obama or America the right to unilaterally bomb Syria anyway?

Did American people authorized Obama to do so?

No.

Did US Congress give Obama the blessing to bomb the middle east country?

No.

Did UN authorize Obama to start bombing soon?

No.

What if Assad decides to bomb Israel with a few missiles with chemical warhead after American’s attack?

What if Putin decides to get involved so that the price of Brent stays at elevated levels?

What if Iran decides to help Syria with air defense?

What if Assad decides to “豁出去了” and bomb Suez Canal or Saudi Arabia’s oil installations?

What if al Qaede takes the opportunity to attack American facilities in Middle East?

What if Obama’s war against Syria starts an all out war in Middle East?

What if Assad gets killed in action and al Qaeda takes over as Syria’s new leader?

Obama, do you have answers to these questions?

I guess not.

One last question: how much money are you going to borrow from China to pay for your war against Assad?

 

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