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Will China invade Taiwan? October 26, 2019

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, 習近平, 蘇俄, Military, Taiwan, 台灣, 中國.
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Could China Really Invade and Take Over Taiwan by Force?

Imagining this:
Some time after the unlikely event of a DPP’s win of the upcoming presidential election in early 2020, be it one month, one year or two years, China announces that it has taken over the islands of Jinmeng (金門) and Mazhu (馬祖) after a bloodless invasion overnight. Penghu (澎湖) is the next target. Plans for a full-scale invasion of the island of Taiwan have long been drawn up but the invasion isn’t on the table just yet.
China also announces that “Operation Cutting the Head of;斬首行動” has begun. In the same announcement, China says that this is an internal affair and it warns other country to staying clear of seas surrounding the island. In other words, an areal and a sea blockades are in effect immediately.
What will the U.S. do?More sanctions against China? Propose to sell more defensive weapons to Taiwan? Send in an additional aircraft carriers to the Eastern Pacific Ocean? In other words, possibly not much different from Obama’s responses against Russia after invasion of Crimea.
What will Taiwan’s official response be? Declare independence and activate military reserves? Ask the U.S.to send in more marines to Taipei?
What willTsai Yingwen and DPP top officers’ next move be?Fly to Japan, hide in Japan’s official office in Taipei or send Mayingjiu to Beijing to negotiate a surrender to PLA in secret?
Will Taiwan’s stock market drop 65% overnight? Maybe it is 75% instead.
This will definitely qualify as a “black swan” for the stock markets around the world.
Are you prepared for it?

What’s between a rock and a hard place December 11, 2016

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Election, Global Affair, Politics, Taiwan.
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Taiwan is. 

However, this time around, Taiwan, more precisely Tsai Ing-wen, will be played like a ping pong ball between two hard hitting ping pong paddles. Tsai ing-wen or a high level Taiwanese official may even get a chance to formally meet with someone from the State Department or DoD as a way to annoy China.

How China will hit back is not clear right now judging by China’s response to the phone call between Trump and Tsai. 

The ball with Tsai ing-wen’sname on it is in China’s court now but China might down play Trump’s comments again because Trump isn’t the president yet. There is no need to be worked up by a TV interview yet. 

Remember Trump’s comment on the phone call after it caused some fuss from the White House and Congress? “It was just a phone call.”

Trump’s intention was very clear though: if I got what I want from China, Taiwan can go back to be part of One China. If I didn’t get what I want, this ball game will continue down to the dark alley with bad outcomes. 

The one player who will get the short end of the stick won’t be the U.S. or China. It will liked be Taiwan.

Whether Trump will follow his words with tough actions against China next year and how China’s Xi Jinping choose to respond will be THE blackswan for the world financial markets to digest. Can the major U.S. indices continue their march to another all time highs? I don’t think so.

It could end very badly. 

The path to an outcome, any outcome good or bad, will be a long, unpredictable and tumultuous one. I don’t think markets will like it. I don’t think Taiwan’s economy will escape the damage either because America has less influence on Taiwan’s economy than China does.

How Tsai ing-wen choose to be played is also worth watching too. What will Taiwan want from Trump? What real and lasting benefits can Taiwan get from Trump? Will Taiwan’s stock market continue to rise next week? Will the New Taiwanese Dollar drop below the recent support of $33.6989 to 1 U.S.dollar?

Trump’s position on Russia is an interesting one too. Apparently Trump is courting Putin because he is considering ExxonMobil’s Tillerson as the Secretary of State. Will Putin fall in line and be played by Trump as well? Not likely.

In any case, brace yourself because the ride will be a very bumpy one and someone will get hurt.


Third Rail Politics December 3, 2016

Posted by hslu in China, Global Affair, Politics, Taiwan, Trump.
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Trump’s call to 蔡英文 Tsai Ing-wen may put Trump one step closer to the third rail of Chinese-American foreign policy.

Was Trump trying to make a statement about the direction of his foreign policy toward China? 

Was Trump trying to pick a fight with China?

Was Trump trying to use Taiwan as a chip to drive a hard bargain with China on trade, currency, jobs, North Korea, Iran and Russia?

Or was Trump simply demonstrating his habitual and compulsive ‘shoot from his hip first’ tendency again without thinking the issue through first? 

I am certain that without his Asian policy in place first, Trump will need to walk back from his previous statements and actions once he is in the office. 

Unification of China and Taiwan May 3, 2011

Posted by hslu in China, Global Affair, Military, Politics, Taiwan.
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To resolve the issue of unifying China and Taiwan once and for all, the Chinese government has to deal with Democratic Progressive Party 民主進步黨 (DPP) “ming2 zhu3 jin4 bu4 dang3” directly because that’s where the major opposition is.

Before any face-to-face negotiation between China and DPP begin, DPP has to win the upcoming presidential election in January 2012 so that the party can negotiate in the position of power.

Based on its recent primary presidential debates, 民主進步黨 or 民進黨 has effectively walked out of the shadow of its previous president, 陳水扁 “chen2 shui3 bian3,” who, along with his family members and his subordinates, has embezzled billions of dollars while in the office. They have been found guilty and some of them, 陳水扁 included, are currently serving jail sentences.

陳水扁 has tried as much as he could to change the small island country into an independent Taiwan when he was in the office from 2000 to 2008. His effort was mostly in vain because Taiwan could not and can not shake off the military threat from China if Taiwan try to break away.

The current chairwoman of 民進黨 , 蔡英文 “cai4 ying1 ewen2”, has managed to get rid of the image of a corrupt party and has waged a series of successful elections in the last couple of years.

馬英九 “ma3 ying1 jiu3”; the current president of Taiwan, as expected has moved to the center judging by his recent actions. He of course was trying to attract voters in the middle. He came out recently denouncing a major petrochemical project in order to please the environmentalists despite the strategical importance of this mega project to the future of Taiwan. Although he has significantly improved the relationship between China and Taiwan with the enactment of ECFA and direct links between two sides in transportation/tourism, mail and business, his lack of leadership and managing skills are putting his presidency in serious jeopardy.

After a series of debates, 蔡英文 has been nominated (based on polls) as 民進黨’s presidential candidate, the first female presidential candidate of Taiwan.

Now, let the fight between 馬英九 and 蔡英文 begin without 馬英九 playing the America card and without China’s influences. The way I see it is that the election is 馬英九‘s to lose and 馬英九‘s second term is by no means guaranteed.

If 馬英九 loses, he will be the last 外省人 “wai4 shen3 ren2” president in Taiwan. If he is re-elected, he will not be able to face the unification issue because he is easily intimidated and lack leadership and guts to make any significant progress in this thorny issue. He will be called all names on the book by 本省人and he will be too sacred to touch this issue with a 10-foot pole.

If DPP‘s 蔡英文 comes out on top, the real negotiation between China and Taiwan (reads 本省人) on unification can begin even if it doesn’t happen during 蔡英文‘s first term.

I am hopeful that some form of unified China will come true because DPP and, by extension, 本省人 have recognized that they have to face this issue squarely.

The military threat on Taiwan from China is like the magical headband on Monkey King 孫悟空‘s “sun1 wu3 kong1” head. All China has to do is to casually remind Taiwan of its predicament and Taiwan has to give up any intention of becoming a separated nation.

In 西遊記 “xi1 you2 ji4” or Journey to the West, Monkey King 孫悟空 was a powerful monkey who swore to protect his master 唐三藏 “tang2 san1 zang4.” As powerful as 孫悟空 was, all 唐三藏 had to do is to read a special chant and  the band would tighten and cause unbearable pain to 孫悟空 ‘s head. And it would bring 孫悟空 into obedience without exception.

Since Taiwan can not escape this headband, Taiwan might as well deal with it because China’s military threat will not go away with or without America’s interference. With Obama ceding the world leadership position and with America in no position to start a new war against China, 馬英九 may not be able to play his American card as effective as before.

I will watch this election with special interests.

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