jump to navigation

Apple Leak Confirms iPhone 7 Serious Problem July 17, 2016

Posted by hslu in iPhone.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonkelly/2016/07/17/apple-iphone-7-photos-video-problem/

Source: Forbes


The real problem with Apple on cellphones is that Apple has been and still is a follower for the past several cycles. Apple’s iPhone S7, it appears, is no execption.

台灣半導體公司要小心 December 9, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Taiwan.
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,
add a comment

下面是壹週刊在2015年12月07日寫的一篇文章的標題:

================== =========    
       原來是這個原因
      讓張忠謀非讓12吋廠登陸不可
===========================

該文章的大意如下:

2014年6月,中國決定積極發展‘’積體電路產業‘’。用白話文來說就是大陸要扶植自己的半導體產業。中國預計要拿出一千兩百億元人民幣(約新台幣六千億元《小編:美金$185 billion》)來提高中國半導體業的技術和生產。

中國大陸的目標是:
1.   到2020 年,國內生產半導體40% 的核心基礎零組件,

2.   到2025 年,自產產晶片比例將要達到 70%,

3.   用大陸內需市場的需求量來威脅或利誘美國的英特爾 (Intel)、韓國的三星 (Samsung)、韓國的 SK 海力士(SK Hynix)等國際大廠在中國設廠。

為什麼中國要投資這麽多錢來發展自己的半導體工業和技術呢?

這個答案非常簡單:
1.  這是中國官方不公開說的秘密:半導體是科技發展的核心技術。幾乎如何工業都需要它。中國在這方面比較落後。許多產品,尤其是高等技術,需要由國外(美國)進口。

2.  這也是中國官方不公開說的第二個秘密:沒有半導體和它的延伸技術和半導體的生產能力對中國的國家安全是一個極大的威脅。雖然中國目前有幾家不算小的IC晶片廠商,例如展訊,海思以及聯芯,可是想要突破技術的瓶頸還需要一段時間。

3.   這還是中國官方不公開說的第三個秘密:沒有屬於自己在半導體這個領域的研究和發展的能力會使得中國在這方面永遠落後其他先進的國家:美國,韓國和德國。中國也將會依靠這些國家提供國內經濟發展必需的產品。

4.   美國對中國虎視眈眈,任何對中國有利的產品和技術都要受到美國政府的管制和威脅。如果對美國有好處,美國會毫不猶豫的繼續禁止這方面的產品外銷到中國,使中國處於不利的地位。

5.   在中國設立外資的半導體工廠可以提高中國的半導體技術,可以供給中國學生和技術人員一個實習和學習的平台,可以提升中國的經濟形態還可以給中國經濟的轉型與升級打下一個良好而又必須的基礎。在2009年,中國只有一家晶片設計廠,如今已經有許多家了。可是中國的設計實力離美國的高通和英特爾仍然相差甚遠。

6.   這一點跟錢有關係。實際上是跟中國銀行的外匯存底有關係。在過去十幾年裏,中國的第一大進口貨物是石油。去年,2014年,半導體的進口金額已經超過了中國的石油進口支出。中國在石油進口方面沒有其他選擇:只有向中東,伊朗,蘇俄,中亞,非洲和南美洲的石油生產國買。半導體的進口趨勢卻是中國自己可以改變的。

7.   中國的“天河二號”超級計算機在世界的比賽中,連續四年拿到超算的冠軍。雖然‘天河二號‘大部分的主要機組是由美國生產的硬體組裝的,美國終於恍然大悟。美國知道要控制中國必須從根本和源頭做起:禁止中國購買美國頂尖和任何與超級計算機有關的技術。

這個禁止的技術說穿了就是英特爾的Xeon CPU (處理器)和英特爾的Xeon Phi加速處理器。

這個禁令一出,中國傻眼了。除了這兩個CPU以外,任何美國以後發展的超算CPU也一定會被禁止出境。中國的領導人就像被美國人所謂的 ‘2 by 4’ 狠狠的在腦袋邊上的太陽穴上打了一下。中國的領導人也‘恍然大悟’,中國在整個半導體的工業上落後先進國家四,五年,目前仍然在扮演一個追趕他國的角色。不急起直追是不行的。

自從中國在2014年推出這個政策以後,英特爾在成都的工廠和三星相繼的推出升級和加産的計劃。跟著這個計劃的推行,半導體的下游工業也會跟著增加,中國就可以加快減少半導體對外國的需求,也可以培養中國半導體的技術。

言歸正傳,讓我們來看看在這個大環境的擠壓下,台灣的半導體工業要怎麽辦?

不去,台灣在大陸好不容易打下來的一片天下會迅速的拱手讓給韓國和中國本土公司。首先,台灣公司,例如臺積電,會逐漸的被邊緣化。大陸可能會施展手段逼迫台灣廠商的客戶。往後臺灣的晶片公司就會失去競爭力而瓦解。

這就是臺積電想要把一部分的產業搬到中國大陸的原因。可是,這想去並不表示去的成。如果台灣政府阻擾,如果公司內部進行延遲,目前中國大陸還需要台灣的臺積電到大陸設廠,過不了幾個月就可能會有不同的情形出現了。

此外,台積電在台灣的十八吋晶片廠正一次再一次的遭受環保團體的打擊和反抗。工廠一拖再拖已經超過預期動土時間一年了。雖然該廠已經于2015年2月過關,但三星和英特爾虎視眈眈在中國增加產量,逼迫台灣的臺積電必須儘快做出決定。

當然,如果只從技術方面來看,台積電的技術先進,目前沒有去大陸設廠的必要,可是大陸可以用其他方法來抵制台灣這可能是作繭自縛,得不償失了。

去中國大陸設廠也不見得會是一帆風順的。台積電12年前在上海工廠的營運就一直不理想。這個結果很有可能是中國政府刻意安排的結果。

從另外一個角度來看,臺積電在大陸設廠,那本來可以在台灣製造的工作機會就永遠不能回到台灣了。台灣目前就是需要這種高科技的工作機會。工廠,尤其是高科技的工廠,蓋在大陸就如同許多台灣的其他工業一樣,一去不回了。台灣剩下的就只有服務業的低級工作了。

此外,高通在中國正爲著壟斷市場的官司和中國政府争執不休。這也是中國官方控制國外公司的手段之一。

當然,臺積電到中國設廠難免會面對技術外流的威脅。到頭來投資的血本無歸,技術人才還可能會被中國廠商用高薪挖角離去。臺積電為了維護公司在中國的市場而去大陸設廠,但是臺積電有可能因為大陸的工廠而導致人財兩空,一,兩年以後,技術的優勢不在,公司反受其害,就無法挽救了。

依我看來,臺積電不能不去中國大陸設廠。因為如果臺積電不去,那目前臺積電的優勢在一,兩個產品週期以後就會受到美國和韓國嚴重的威脅。到時候,臺積電想去都太晚了。

Samsung’s New Gear April 5, 2015

Posted by hslu in China.
Tags: ,
add a comment

Very Impressive. Saw this at Taipei 世貿一館 in March 2015.

4K SUHD Series Curved Smart TV – 65″ from Samsung.

Curved d TV.

Curved TV.

HTC a goner? October 23, 2013

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, iPhone, jobs, Politics, Shanghai, Taipei, Taiwan.
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,
add a comment

A disturbing news about HTC cutting down its cellphone productions in Taiwan and China certainly didn’t help HTC’s stock which has already lost almost 90% of its market value since 2011:

Chart forHTC CORPORATION (2498.TW)

10-year stock chart of Taiwan’s HTC.

I believe many Taiwanese have been 套牢了by this stock as well because they bought the stock as it was moving up in 2010 and are still holding them in their brokerage accounts after it dropped from the record high of 新台币 1,238 to 新台币 136 now: a drop of 89% in about two and half years.

HTC is short of cash and has experienced disappointing sales in the US and China. The company may disappear or it may be taken over by someone else.

Another Taiwanese stock that is also facing difficult time is Acer.

Chart forACER INC TWD10 (2353.TW)

Acer 5-year stock chart

The reduction of PC sales worldwide hit Acer particularly hard. Its newer version of notebooks and tablets just couldn’t compete with tables from Apple and Samsung. It is losing market shares fast and the company probably doesn’t have enough cash to turn it around now. It once spent millions to hire CEO from foreign countries to run the company but Acer’s market share didn’t improve with foreign management. Unless the company can come up with something significantly new, it, along with HTC, may follow Nokia and Blackberry into sunset and cease to exist soon.

Two of Taiwan’s once brilliant technology companies are experiencing such a difficult time in the market place is very disturbing. To many Taiwanese, it probably feels like that the legs which were supporting Taiwan’s future was severed at the knees. Lack of funds to promote its products in the US and China may be one of its problems even though its products are on par or even better than those came out of Apple and Samsung. When a company’s market share is shrinking, it negatively impact its cash flow which hurts everything from research, innovation, product development and marketing. When we were in Shanghai about a month ago, we went to The Bund and saw Samsung’s Galaxy S4 was prominently marketed on the big screen in Pudong.

I am certain that the top management of both companies is responsible for misjudged the competitions from Apple and Samsung. I also wondered out loud that the in-fighting between 国民党 and 民进党 in the name of democracy probably bears some blame as well.

Maybe the outflow of top-notch professionals and professors to China in search for a decent salary had something to do with this too.

The bottom line is this: Taiwan’s problem is structural and is deep-rooted. It has rocked Taiwan’s foundation and has affected Taiwan’s GDP growth. Everywhere we go, Taipei’s streets and shops are filled with well-dressed and fashionable teenagers and people in their 20’s and 30’s. The restaurants are crowed and busy. TPE airport is busy with tourist groups to China, Japan, Korea, other countries in Asia and Australia. The younger generation is spending their parents’ wealth because they can’t make it by themselves with Taiwan’s GDP growing at 2%. If Taiwan’s government is still sitting on its hands and if 马英九 is still fighting with his own party’s members, there will be more companies like HTC and Acer going down the drain. Jobs will be lost and confidence on the ruling party will be undercut too.

Maybe 马英九  should throw the government’s weight to help these tow companies. Just a thought.

 

Samsung has a grudge against 台灣? October 8, 2013

Posted by hslu in iPhone, Nursing, Taiwan.
Tags: , , , , , ,
add a comment

Is it just me or am I actually too paranoid to look for bones out of an egg, 所谓的”鸡蛋里挑骨頭?”

Samsung’ s 中文输入軟體 on its iconic Galaxy S4 smart phone is decades behind Apple’s iPhone 3 in terms of user friendliness to someone who wants to communicate using 繁體中文。

At least, that’s what I have experienced so far.

For instance, when I want to enter 台灣 on S4, I have to to enter tai and scroll down to find 台。I then enter wan and scroll down to pick 灣 from the options given.

In many cases, S4 will offer 简体字 first. I have to scroll down to find 繁體字 if it is offered.

On iPhone 3, all I need to do is enter tw and pick either 台湾 or 臺灣.

Simple like that.

If I want to enter 台北, I need 5 strokes for 台 and 3 strokes for 北.

On iPhone 3, enter tb and 台北 is the first option.

If you enter tb on S4, 台北 is not an option even if you scroll down to look for it. 

Am I missing something here or Samsung 三星 is actually having a grudge against Taiwan?

Maybe I need to use other software to input Chinese on my S4.

Acer and HTC: 台湾的缩影 September 28, 2013

Posted by hslu in China, Computer, Economics, Global Affair, iPhone, Taiwan.
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
add a comment

531期的天下雜誌 (2013-9-8) 问:台灣科技品牌为何屡屡落敗?

The magazine was talking about Taiwan’s two tech companies:  宏碁 Acer and  宏達電 HTC

I own an Acer laptop since 2011 and liked it a lot. It’s cheap and performs as well as comparable products from Dell and HP. Although I have used Apple iPhone3 and have recently switched to Samsung’s Galaxy S4, I heard that HTC’s phones are equally good. 

That being said, these two companies’ stocks can only be described as 惨不忍睹。

See for yourself:

宏碁/Acer 5-year chart

 

My first answer is: 台湾的顶尖人才都跑到中国大陆去了。台湾的教授也跑到中国大陆去了。Pay there is better。Period。台湾, in a way, 被别人从上面和中间掏空了。The majority of businesses staying put in Taiwan are service oriented: restaurants, massage shops, travel related companies, night markets and taxis.

My second answer is: 爸爸(国民党)和妈妈(民进党)天天吵架,家里的小孩(台湾的人民和公司)这么能长的好呢?Both parties are fighting hard to strengthening their own party. They are not working for the people. They are working for their party instead.

My third answer is:台湾的教育失败。See for yourself:

wpid-20130826_011152.jpg

wpid-20130826_011313.jpg

My fourth answer is: 台湾’s problems are structural in nature. Taiwan has been very good at putting things together for other companies. It may have slacked behind on fundamental researches which are very critical in the highly competitive technology space. The central government has been throwing money in the area of social welfare to please the voters for years. By doing so, it didn’t do what it supposed to do: helps Taiwan’s businesses compete with other companies in the world which enjoy total support from their respective governments.

Taiwan’s current leader,马英九, has over the past six years been fighting for the survivor of his political life. He lacks the vision to help companies such as Acer and THC and is powerless under the constant attack from the opposition party. He hasn’t shown any leadership quality and is mired in a dismal approval rating of low teens.

My fifth answer is:The CEO of both companies probably have squandered their respective company’s good fortune, became lazy at the top and didn’t adapt to the changing landscape. Once they starts to play catching up, their technological advantages were gone. We call this: 创业维艰守成不易。

If something is not done fast, both companies, along with hundreds of jobs, will by gone soon.

 

%d bloggers like this: