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What’s between a rock and a hard place December 11, 2016

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Election, Global Affair, Politics, Taiwan.
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Taiwan is. 

However, this time around, Taiwan, more precisely Tsai Ing-wen, will be played like a ping pong ball between two hard hitting ping pong paddles. Tsai ing-wen or a high level Taiwanese official may even get a chance to formally meet with someone from the State Department or DoD as a way to annoy China.

How China will hit back is not clear right now judging by China’s response to the phone call between Trump and Tsai. 

The ball with Tsai ing-wen’sname on it is in China’s court now but China might down play Trump’s comments again because Trump isn’t the president yet. There is no need to be worked up by a TV interview yet. 

Remember Trump’s comment on the phone call after it caused some fuss from the White House and Congress? “It was just a phone call.”

Trump’s intention was very clear though: if I got what I want from China, Taiwan can go back to be part of One China. If I didn’t get what I want, this ball game will continue down to the dark alley with bad outcomes. 

The one player who will get the short end of the stick won’t be the U.S. or China. It will liked be Taiwan.

Whether Trump will follow his words with tough actions against China next year and how China’s Xi Jinping choose to respond will be THE blackswan for the world financial markets to digest. Can the major U.S. indices continue their march to another all time highs? I don’t think so.

It could end very badly. 

The path to an outcome, any outcome good or bad, will be a long, unpredictable and tumultuous one. I don’t think markets will like it. I don’t think Taiwan’s economy will escape the damage either because America has less influence on Taiwan’s economy than China does.

How Tsai ing-wen choose to be played is also worth watching too. What will Taiwan want from Trump? What real and lasting benefits can Taiwan get from Trump? Will Taiwan’s stock market continue to rise next week? Will the New Taiwanese Dollar drop below the recent support of $33.6989 to 1 U.S.dollar?

Trump’s position on Russia is an interesting one too. Apparently Trump is courting Putin because he is considering ExxonMobil’s Tillerson as the Secretary of State. Will Putin fall in line and be played by Trump as well? Not likely.

In any case, brace yourself because the ride will be a very bumpy one and someone will get hurt.

天下要大變了。

WSJ:“一中時代已終結” – 說的嫌早了一點吧 November 30, 2015

Posted by hslu in China, Taiwan.
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The Wall Street Journal headline reads: The End of ‘One China.’

這是一篇非常中肯的文章。不過,我覺得華爾街日報的標題恐怕說的太早了一點。為什麼?只因為習近平還沒有跟民進黨真正的下過棋呢。
習近平同意和馬英九見面只是中國對台灣下的一步棋而已。馬英九沾沾自喜,眉開眼笑,到頭來只不過是大陸的一個棋子罷了。對大陸來講,國民黨現在就像一個扶不起的阿斗,或是一塊雞的肋骨,食之無味棄之可惜,完全沒有一點利用的價值。習近平打著這一步棋,反而害了朱立倫。不過他本來就沒有任何機會,現在出來只不過是應付應付。他自己也知道。只是豬被抬到架子上,也只能跟著唱戲,跑跑龍套罷了。等明年選舉完閉,他也就成為馬英九的犧牲品。
看看民進黨如何對付。
就像下圍棋一樣,有時候是兩兵相接,廝殺片野,寸土必爭,不達到目的絕不干休。有時候是退步三分,重新佈局,靜觀其變,敵不動則我不動。
不到最後是分不出勝負的。

 Sources:The Wall Street Journal

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-end-of-one-china-1447434065

蘋果日報

http://www.appledaily.com.tw/realtimenews/article/new/20151115/733123/?utm_source=Via&utm_medium=Android_Share&utm_campaign=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E%2F%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%2F%E2%80%8B%E3%80%8A%E8%8F%AF%E7%88%BE%E8%A1%97%E6%97%A5%E5%A0%B1%E3%80%8B%EF%BC%9A%E3%80%8C%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%AD%E3%80%8D%E6%99%82%E4%BB%A3%E5%B7%B2%E7%B5%82%E7%B5%90

 

 

Taiwanese people like status quote, why? September 21, 2010

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Global Affair, Politics.
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Taiwan is a second class “nation” on the world stage due to political pressure from China. According to a recent poll, slightly more than half of the Taiwanese people are willing to maintain the status quote indefinitely instead of unifying with China or declaring independence.

I have to admit that I fail to see the rationale behind this mindset.

Why the status quote?

Is it because that your pockets are filled with money from all that exports to China that you don’t care about your status on the world stage? According to the latest data, China accounts for 40% of Taiwan’s export market.

Is it because that this quasi mother-child relation on economics is enough to keep the unemployment rate low enough that most of you do not feel the pain?

Is it because that diplomatic advancement is simply a pipe dream given the strength of China in recent years? Didn’t President Ma said that Taiwan can “handle” diplomatic isolation as long as Taiwanese have jobs to go to and money to spend once economic isolation is removed.”

Is it because that declaring independence is a non-issue now because ECFA has taken effect as of 9-12-2010? Don’t you know that, with a closer tie on economy and other areas of your daily life, Taiwan’s life line will be firmly in the hands of China to the foreseeable future?

Why not unify with China?

Is it because you do not trust Chinese government and its ability to strike Taiwan at any moment?

Since Ma took office, officials from Taiwanese government at many levels have called for China to remove roughly 1,200 missiles that are aimed at Taiwan. This is utterly non-sense because it sounds like what Chinese said “自欺欺人zi4 qi1 qi1 ren2.” Why should China do that? What does China get in return? Will Taiwan come to the negotiation table to discuss conditions of a  unified China if these missiles are removed back to Central or Western China? These missiles can be reset at moments notice if China likes it.

Is it because the current leader is satisfied with being the head of a nation, second class or not, instead of a governor of a small state in China?

Is it because that no Taiwanese president, certainly not Ma Ying Jiu, from KMT wants to be the last president of the ROC Dynasty that may 遗臭万年 “yi2 chou4 wan4 nian2”?

Is it because Taiwan has found a new mother to play child with? Didn’t the United States wants to sell Taiwan advanced weapons to counter China’s insurgence? Even the president called for such a sell in order to “balance” with China’s military power? Is he kidding? Without the backing of the United States, Taiwan would have long been part of China already. Taiwan is willing to be a pawn and a front line foot solider of the United States in the cold war between the US and China in the decades to come?

Is it because that being a front line foot solider of the United States gives Taiwan a false sense of importance on the world stage?

This is what I have to say to those 50+% of Taiwanese people:

Forget about the status quote. Independence is not achievable given China’s “One China” stance. Use ECFA as a blue print, seek the best comprises from China politically across the negotiation table and move towards a peaceful one China goal in the next decade. It will be good for China and it will be for Taiwan.

Believe me:

The United States is not a friend of Taiwan. It sees China as its new enemy and has aggressively seeking partners such as Japan, Vietnam and India, to fight against the insurgence of China.

Taiwan and China should join hands to counter the attack from the US instead of fighting each other.

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