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November 4, 2018 July 24, 2018

Posted by hslu in 石油, 美國, Economics, Islam, Oil, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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That’s about 100 days from today, July 24, 2018.

What’s so special about November 4, 2018 anyway, you might ask?

That’s the day Trump has given countries to stop importing oil from Iran.

What if these countries choose to ignore Trump’s empty threat and carry out business as before?

What will Trump do?

Will Trump initiate financial sanctions against these countries or will Trump find himself a face saving excuse to walk back his empty threat?

And how high will oil price go in light of wars of tweets between Trump and Iranian president? What if the Strait of Hormuz is in essence closed because Iran threatens military action against oil tankers flying American flag without firing a single missile?

$100 per barrel? $200 per barrel?

And how long will American people tolerate Trump’s impulsive and irresponsible 140 character, all CAPS foreign policy if they continue paying $4 per gallon at the gas station? By then, many people will have already lost their jobs and the U.S. economy will roll over into recession

How high will oil shoot up to? July 20, 2018

Posted by hslu in Middle East, Military, Muslim, Oil, 川普.
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$200 USD per barrel perhaps if a war breaks out between Iran and Israel.

And how much higher will oil company stocks be traded for if anything remotely close to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities happens?

Finally, what will happen to Israel if Israeli Army doesn’t clean up Iran’s nuclear facilities in the first strike?

Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia, Iran and oil December 15, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 石油, 美國, Energy, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Oil, Putin, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Mohammed bin Salman’s ill-advised ventures have weakened Saudi Arabia’s position in the world

http://flip.it/93wubN

The failed policies of Mohammed bin Salman, the growing influence of Iran and the formation of Shia cresent are the primary reason that WTI is trading above $55 a barrel and Brent crude at $63 a barrel. A 20% war premium has been added to the price of crude oil contracts since November. It has gained more than 30% since the low achieved in late June of this year.

Saudi Arabia has been fighting a proxy war with Iran via Yemen for 2 years with little but many dead Yemenis to show for. Saudi’s oil infrastructure is now under external threat from Yemen which will keep the price of Brent crude at an elevated level. 

US shale oil production is expected to rise because WTI is trading at a few dollars below $60/barrel. However, since US exports very little of its oil, the spread between WTI and Brent crude will widen.

Source: CNBC

Source: CNBC

With WTI comfortably trading above $45 a barrel, roughly the average price of WTI for the past three years, oil company stocks should see a nice rebound in 2018. If the tension between Saudi and Iran flares up further, oil companies should see more upside too. 

With an young and inexperienced prince in Rydah colluding with a dotard and impulsive Trump in the WH, giant mistakes will continue to happen.

It is bad for the world.

It is good for China and it will be great for the US oil companies.

Putin is smiling too.

The Kingmaker has failed miserablly in Iraq July 30, 2014

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Energy, Global Affair, Islam, Obama, Oil, Politics, Putin, Religion.
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America has for decades played a ‘King Maker’ role with other countries’ governments in the world. It financed the opposition party of the govrrnment in power. It invaded other countries. It set up military bases and selected persons loyal to the U.S. and made them ‘King,’ all in the name of national security and in the name of promoting democracy as the supreme government system for the affected countries and the peace of the world. America then showered the new ‘King’ with American tax money and used billions of green backs to seal off oppostions’ objection hoping the new ‘king’ can fortify his new-found power under the protective shield of American military prowess.

The ‘New World Order’ or ‘The Rule of Governance’ envisioned by the US for the world is ‘democracy’ in countries that’s important to the US and it has never been shy about its intentions.

The problem is that it seldom works. Take Iraq for instance: Maliki was put in power as a puppet for America. Maliki believed he has enough power and a strong military force to protect his power base. He asked US to leave because the opposition don’t want America in its country. It also believe that their oil production and export will be big enough to do without American’s financial support. The trouble for Maliki and American’s ‘democracy everywhere’ dream is that the religion got in the way.

It looks like that we’ll have a morden version of ‘新三國演義’ in Iraq. ISIS will not stop making its move toward the south because that’s where the money is. We’ll see how it will play out in years to come. 0

Iran was like that. Iraq was like that. Egypt was like that. Libya was like that and the list goes on. Saudi has rejected the ‘democracy’ call because America for 40 years had to relied on Saudi to keep the oil flowing. American presidents have learned their lessons and they dare not to ‘pull tooth from a lion’s mouth’ or ‘在老虎嘴裡拔牙.’

Well, I am not sure America will stop ‘making Kings’ around the world. They probably will avoid the Middle East and change its targets to South East Asian countries.

America has a new ‘Cold War’ to fight with China.

Mark my words! It is happening now no matter how much American government denies its intention.

Well, the problem for America is that Obama has made Putin America’s enemy No. 1. Worse, there is no country in South America which can call America friend.

The fundamental problem

One million barrels September 10, 2012

Posted by hslu in Economics, Energy, Global Affair, Obama, Oil, Politics.
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Obama said at Democratic National Convention that the U.S. is importing one million barrels of oil a day less these days.

He said it “臉也不紅氣不喘"as if he did it all by himself.

Nope! He didn’t do anything to accplish that milestone.

It was the economy, stupid.

A slowing down economy will need less oil every time I checked.

This is “inert lecture dishonesty” at the highest level.

Shame on Obama

It’s so predictable April 22, 2011

Posted by hslu in Economics, Energy, Global Affair, Obama, Oil, Politics.
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As gas prices top $5 in some cities in the US, you will see Obama, Senators and Representatives from both parties attack big oil companies such as ExxonMobil because they are easy targets. And I am sorry to say that most Americans are stupid when it comes to crude oil production and how it reaches our favorite corner gas station in the form of gasoline or diesel.

I once heard a caller to Kudlow’s weekend radio talk show and offered this brilliant remedy to solve high gas prices once and for all.

He said that we can all stop buying gas from ExxonMobil and Shell for two weeks which will then force them to lower the gas prices.

What? How stupid can that be? From an American on a business talk show?

He has no idea that ExxonMobil has absolutely no say on gas, for that matter, crude oil, prices.

People like this caller have no idea where does gas come from and have no idea how capitalism works. They have no idea how big a struggle ExxonMobil has to go through to keep their reserve replaced year after year. They have no idea how much oil The US has and they have no idea that most oil in the world is owned by America’s enemies.

It is precisely people like this caller that the politicians are trying to get their votes from.

The politicians have no shame. Some American voters are too stupid and so un-educated to have any common sense at all.

弱國無外交A weak country has no diplomacy March 30, 2011

Posted by hslu in Uncategorized.
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A weak country has no diplomacy. China was in this exact position after WW II and was betrayed by America, England, France and Soviet Union.

Libya is taking a beating from the US and the other because Libya has no military to speak of and no friends strong enough to go against the US in UN.

The country is flat with no place to hide. It is an easy target from the air. Ti American fighter pilots, Libya tanks look like ducks from the air.

The US may be in it for Libya’s oil if a pro-democracy and pro-US government is established but nothing is that easy when Obama didn’t know whom he was friends with.

Well, the devil is all un the details.

What if Qaddafi win and the so-called Revel lose?

Also interesting to note is that the main street news media called the opposition rebels instead of “Freedom Fighters.”

Why?

But I am afraid that the attack will make Muslims all over the world hate the Americans even more.

You can also expect that more western soft target in Europe and US will face more terrorist attacks in coming years.

2010 in review January 2, 2011

Posted by hslu in Chinese Food, Economics, Energy, Food, Global Affair, Oil, Restaurants.
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The stats helper monkeys at WordPress.com mulled over how this blog did in 2010, and here’s a high level summary of its overall blog health:

Healthy blog!

The Blog-Health-o-Meter™ reads Fresher than ever.

Crunchy numbers

Featured image

The average container ship can carry about 4,500 containers. This blog was viewed about 20,000 times in 2010. If each view were a shipping container, your blog would have filled about 4 fully loaded ships.

 

In 2010, there were 404 new posts, growing the total archive of this blog to 664 posts.

The busiest day of the year was April 20th with 145 views. The most popular post that day was Seoul Soondae – Seoul Plaza, Annandale, Virginia.

Where did they come from?

The top referring sites in 2010 were en.wordpress.com, alphainventions.com, google.com, search.aol.com, and en.search.wordpress.com.

Some visitors came searching, mostly for discrimination against blacks, italy financial crisis, eurozone financial crisis, gom tang e, and 巴山蜀水 rockville.

Attractions in 2010

These are the posts and pages that got the most views in 2010.

1

Seoul Soondae – Seoul Plaza, Annandale, Virginia August 2009

2

Euro Zone Financial Crisis – Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain May 2010

3

How much oil is produced each day? August 2009

4

A National Crisis in the Making – The State of US Oil Industry August 2009

5

Crude Oil Price History – August 2009 August 2009
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US to Leave Afghan October 29, 2009

Posted by hslu in Energy, Global Affair, Politics.
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US to Leave Afghan

 

I believe that the Unites States will eventually leave Afghanistan because it could potentially become another Vietnam. This will happen sooner than later. There is simply no public interests in a 20-year nation building project with dead US soldiers. The current president made the war in Afghanistan (as opposite to the war in Iraq) a big issue during the presidential campaign. He gets stuck with his war now.

The problem to the White House becomes much more open with McChrystal’s request for 40,000 more troops. As more US soldiers dying there, the enemy is getting stronger by the day. The White House is dragging its feet because the president and his anti-war sponsors are trying to devise a plan to get out of that country without being seen by Muslims as a paper tiger.

The current administration is going through Soviet experience in Afghanistan and I bet they do not see any light at the end of the tunnel for United States either. High tech weapons can not substitute soldiers in a war like that. But is United States willing to sacrifice more of its young soldiers for a war with ill-defined purpose?

Someone at the table must have raised this question too: “Why should we stay there if there is no oil in Afghanistan?”

Reserve Replacement October 1, 2009

Posted by hslu in Energy.
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Reserve Replacement

If an oil company does not replace its production with new reserves, this company will cease to exist when its reserves are depleted.

That’s why oil companies spend billion of dollars in exploration to search for new resources and billions of dollars in capital expenditures, development, production and technologies to develop these resources into reserves so that they can be produced economically.

Do you know how much money was spent by oil companies in the world in 2008 to look for new hydrocarbon resources and convert resources into reserves?

$492 billion – $182 billion in exploration and $310 billion in development from 232 oil and gas companies in the world! In 2007, these companies spent $407 billion in upstream exploration and development. This came from a report released by IHS Herold Inc. and Harrison Lovegrove & Co.

Revenues came in at $1.232 trillion, 31% higher than that in 2007 due to higher commodity prices. Dividends paid to shareholders from public traded oil and gas companies were more than $100 billion for the first time in 2008.

For reference, ExxonMobil has consistently replaces its production by an average of 110% for the past 10 years: 103% for liquid and 119% for gas. This is because XOM, mostly Exxon, took a long term view of the business and invest steadily through out the commodity price cycle.

Exxon was the exploration division of the Standard Oil Company and Mobil came from the refinery side. That’s why Mobil’s CEO’s were mostly refiners or bean counters while Exxon’s CEO’s came from the production divisions.

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