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November 4, 2018 July 24, 2018

Posted by hslu in 石油, 美國, Economics, Islam, Oil, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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That’s about 100 days from today, July 24, 2018.

What’s so special about November 4, 2018 anyway, you might ask?

That’s the day Trump has given countries to stop importing oil from Iran.

What if these countries choose to ignore Trump’s empty threat and carry out business as before?

What will Trump do?

Will Trump initiate financial sanctions against these countries or will Trump find himself a face saving excuse to walk back his empty threat?

And how high will oil price go in light of wars of tweets between Trump and Iranian president? What if the Strait of Hormuz is in essence closed because Iran threatens military action against oil tankers flying American flag without firing a single missile?

$100 per barrel? $200 per barrel?

And how long will American people tolerate Trump’s impulsive and irresponsible 140 character, all CAPS foreign policy if they continue paying $4 per gallon at the gas station? By then, many people will have already lost their jobs and the U.S. economy will roll over into recession

How high will oil shoot up to? July 20, 2018

Posted by hslu in Middle East, Military, Muslim, Oil, 川普.
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$200 USD per barrel perhaps if a war breaks out between Iran and Israel.

And how much higher will oil company stocks be traded for if anything remotely close to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities happens?

Finally, what will happen to Israel if Israeli Army doesn’t clean up Iran’s nuclear facilities in the first strike?

Trump’s plan B for Iran May 25, 2018

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 石油, 美國, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中東.
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http://flip.it/cHuDmr

It hasn’t worked on Kim Jong En yet.

But will it work on Iran?

These are America’s demands for Iran delivered by Pompeo after Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Iran Nuclear Treaty :

The question seems to be this:

Are Americans willing to die for Israel?

Will Americans die for Taiwan’s independence? May 19, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Middle East, Military, Taiwan, U.S. Foreign Policy, 台灣, 中國.
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This article asks a simple question:

Do Americans want to die for Israel?

To me, the simple answer is: “no.”

Among all the allies of the United States, Israel is in a league of its own. Israel has the support of the Fifth Column in America: the so-called neoconservatives. The jewish State serves as an example of democracy advocated by the U.S. It is allowed to buy the most advanced weaponry from the U.S. without telling the world what it has purchased. It has enjoyed generous financial and military aids from the U.S. for decades. And last but not the least, Israel is “allowed” by the U.S. to own nuclear weapons without signing the Treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

With Trump moving American embassy to Jerusalem, tensions between Israel and surrounding Arab states will no doubt escalating.

What if a war breaks out between Iran and Israel, will America send U.S. soldiers to fight with the Israeli soldiers?

Most likely not.

By the same token, what if a war breaks out between China and Taiwan 10 years from now, will America send ground troops to Taiwan and shoot Chinese soldiers?

Definitely not.

以色列大開殺戒,中東和平遙遙無期 May 18, 2018

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 石油, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Trump, U.S. dollar, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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以色列的 Netanyahu 有 Trump 撐腰,以色列用它從美國買來的精密武器把伊朗在敘利亞的軍事基地和巴勒斯坦的 Gaza 打的一塌糊塗。

Trump 不顧國內和國外大多數人的反對,把美國駐以色列的的大使館從 Tel Aviv 搬到 Jerusalem。不服氣的巴勒斯坦人能怎麽辦?沙烏地阿拉伯的小王子罵他們,美國的 Trump 嫌他們,以色列人想殺他們。

面對著頑強卻脆弱的敵人,以色列 Netanyahu 的鷹派政府採取一連串的軍事行動打擊伊朗和巴勒斯坦,企圖鎮壓 Gaza 示威的民眾和伊斯蘭教的激進份子。

這些巴勒斯坦人沒有飛機,短程飛彈不夠多,大炮小炮不夠準,除了只有眼睜睜的看著美國搬家,只有無可奈何的在電視上發表”打死美國人”的言論,在街上燒美國國旗。沒有槍,沒有炮的巴勒斯坦人只有示威遊行,丟石頭,燒輪胎,扔玻璃瓶子做的燃燒彈。當以色列從美國買來的子彈打過來的時候,他們除了死以外,只能躲,只能逃,只能哭,只能喊,只能罵。只能躲,還能做什麽?

誰叫這些巴勒斯坦人沒有一個有錢,有勢,有槍,有炮的老闆在後面頂著。你沒槍,沒炮,沒飛彈,沒飛機,沒坦克,怎麼跟以色列的 sniper 抵抗呢?

Source: BBC News

Source: BBC News

Source: BBC News

這個世界就是這麽不公平。中東亂了一千多年,信仰伊斯蘭教的 muslims 被信仰基督教的歐洲人打敗了。中東被歐美各國劃分成不同的國家,還硬把以色列插在中間。這也造成過去七十年中東動盪不安的形式。身爲 muslim 的 Obama 想盡了辦法將以色列邊緣化,跟伊朗訂了核子條約,解除了對伊朗的經濟制裁,給伊朗一點生機。沒想到 Trump 一上臺,就極力的挺以色列,交好沙烏地阿拉伯的年輕繼承人,打擊伊朗,企圖推翻敘利亞的政府。你看看美國做的好事,把中東搞得亂七八糟,一塌糊塗。

如今世界和平遙遙無期,美國在世界各地撩起經濟制裁和貿易大戰,油價上漲,通貨膨脹即將到來,美國的利息一節一節的上升,逼迫世界其他各國的利息一起上漲。美金轉強,發展中國家的貨幣飽受威脅,匯率下跌,另一個經濟蕭條就在眼前了。

2009 年美國一手造成的世界財務危機和相繼而來的 Great Recession 使得過去八,九年的利息大幅下降。許多國家在這幾年借了許多美金,如今美金上漲,這些國家慘了。

一次又一次,美國的聯邦銀行用利息的升降來控制資本主義分配不均和週期循環的缺點把世界搞得一塌糊塗。新的一個週期已經來了。

可憐的巴勒斯坦人那有時間管這個呢?他們能夠躲開以色列 sniper.的子彈就夠幸運了。

Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia, Iran and oil December 15, 2017

Posted by hslu in China, 石油, 美國, Energy, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Oil, Putin, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Mohammed bin Salman’s ill-advised ventures have weakened Saudi Arabia’s position in the world

http://flip.it/93wubN

The failed policies of Mohammed bin Salman, the growing influence of Iran and the formation of Shia cresent are the primary reason that WTI is trading above $55 a barrel and Brent crude at $63 a barrel. A 20% war premium has been added to the price of crude oil contracts since November. It has gained more than 30% since the low achieved in late June of this year.

Saudi Arabia has been fighting a proxy war with Iran via Yemen for 2 years with little but many dead Yemenis to show for. Saudi’s oil infrastructure is now under external threat from Yemen which will keep the price of Brent crude at an elevated level. 

US shale oil production is expected to rise because WTI is trading at a few dollars below $60/barrel. However, since US exports very little of its oil, the spread between WTI and Brent crude will widen.

Source: CNBC

Source: CNBC

With WTI comfortably trading above $45 a barrel, roughly the average price of WTI for the past three years, oil company stocks should see a nice rebound in 2018. If the tension between Saudi and Iran flares up further, oil companies should see more upside too. 

With an young and inexperienced prince in Rydah colluding with a dotard and impulsive Trump in the WH, giant mistakes will continue to happen.

It is bad for the world.

It is good for China and it will be great for the US oil companies.

Putin is smiling too.

War With Iran and “window of opportunity” November 19, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Middle East, Military, Muslim, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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In 1987, a Rogue U.S. Navy Admiral Schemed for War With Iran

http://flip.it/CF.F8L

I wonder what other “window of opportunities” American military has been or is contemplating with?

A tactic nuclear war with North Korea, Russia, China or Iran?

With a story like this, it goes a long way to show the entire world that America is really dangerous in dealing with other nations in the world. 

Basically, its mentality is “It is my way or highway.”

The message to the world is simply this: “Arm yourself to defend your country or be slaughtered by the United States of America when you are least expected.”

The U.S., Iraq, the Kurds and Iran October 24, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Democracy, Global Affair, Islam, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Obama, U.S. Foreign Policy, 民主.
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The United Stated has turned Iraq upside down and then shoveled the country America built into the arms of Iran.
Nice job.

The U.S. insisted that Iraq’s Saddam Hussein had WMD.

The U.S. invaded Iraq and killed Saddam Hussein. Some speculated that Hussein got himself eliminated because he traded Iraqi oil for Euro instead of the USD. The U.S. couldn’t tolerate that.

The U.S. dismantled the Iraqi army and sent all Hussein’s soldiers home.

The U.S. built a new Iraq, selected Al-Maliki the  leader of the new government, gave him a ton of American tax money and fooled the Iraqi people to vote him in as Iraq’s first prime minister.

The U.S. called the outcome the will of the Iraqi people, patted itself on the back and called it a shinning example of democracy for all Muslim countries to see.

The U.S. claimed that the democratic Iraq a trusted friend in the all important Middle East region.

The U.S. believed that the new, pro-America Iraqi government established a geopolitical equilibrium between Iran and Iraq.

The U.S. military forces were completely kicked out of Iraq by the democratic Iraqi government America built. Obama called it the will of the American people. The withdraw of American soldiers helped the insurgence of ISIS.

The U.S. wanted to get rid of Bashar al-Assad of Syria and formed a pro-America government but couldn’t decide whom to support.

The U.S. created a power vacuum in Syria, Putin saw the opportunity and established a military base in Syria. Russia has entered the Middle East and popped up al-Assad’s government.

The U.S. president’s (Obama) indecision in Syria allowed ISIS to strengthen which occupied part of Syria and a big chunk of Iraq.

The U.S. decided to go back to Iraq to clean up the mess it left behind. American special forces supplied the Iraqi army with American’s advanced weapons and trained the Iraqi army to use these weapons.

The U.S. supported the Kurdish Peshmerga forces because they knew how to fight the ISIS while Iraqi army ran in panic and fled in their humvees from the battle field.

The U.S. doesn’t want Iraqi Kurds to declare independence because it will make Turkey and Iraq mad at the U.S.

The U.S. couldn’t do anything when people in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq voted in a referendum and declared independence.

The U.S.-equipped Iraqi army decided to get rid of the Kurds and took over the Kirkuk oil field from the Kurds in a matter of two days. The Irancbacked militias helped.

The U.S. asked Iraq to disband the Iraqi militias because the fight against the IS in Iraq was almost over.

The U.S. is ignored by the Iraqi PM who called the Iran-backed militias, called Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisatio,) the “hope of Iraq and the region”.

The U.S. lost trillions of dollars and the lives of thousands of American soldiers for nothing. The Iraqi government America built became an ally of Iran. A new equilibrium has emerged in the Middle East thanks to American’s nations building efforts.

What an irony.

中國人有句話描述這個情形:賠了夫人又折兵。

你又可以說:偷雞不成蝕把米。

What’s the benefit to U.S? October 6, 2017

Posted by hslu in Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Oil, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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Other than tearing apart yet another work done by Obama, “de-certify” Iran nuclear deal, known as JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, will not bring any discernible benefit to the U.S. 

It will make Trump the odd man out on the world stage. Again. It will make American economic sanctions less effective this time around without the backing of other five countries which signed the JCPOA. It will not bring Iran any closer to comply with the regulations of the JCPOA either. And it will further isolate America from the rest of the world.

It will, however, fulfill one of Trump’s campaign promises though. 

But, what can Trump or Congress do to prevent Iran from eventually becoming a nation with nuclear weapons?

Not much.

Inspections slowed down the progress of Iran’s nuclearization. American sanctions choked off Iran’s economic development, made Iranians suffer over the years but didn’t stop Iran from gaining necessary hardware and know-how to develop nuclear weapons since Iran’s Islamic revoluion in 1979.

So, what drives Trump do it and push the hot potato to the arms of the Congress? There are several possible reasons:

  1. Trump can wash his hands clean and check it off from the list of things he had promised to do before taking the WH? 
  2. Trump believes Iran will fall in line and negotiate a new deal with the U.S. when threatened by Trump.
  3. America wants to punish Iran because Iran has been accepting Renminbi, instead of U.S. dollar, for millions of barrels of Iranian crudes it has exported to China. This is a “big no-no” because it threatens one of the pillars of American hegemony in the world.
  4. Trump intends to take on China indirectly using Iran as a promixy. By imposing new sanctions on Iran, America can impose restrictions on Chinese banks and Chinese companies if they continue to do business with Iran thus slowing down the transformation from petro-dollar to petro-renminbi.
  5. Trump is the kind of person who “唯恐天下不亂”。He wants all the attentions in the world so that he medses up things in the world as much as he can.

What a “怪胎”!

Can you think of a better term to describe Trump the person?

麻煩了! April 7, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Putin, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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有去無來何時了,飛彈打多少,
川普昨夜顯威風,敍國機場被炸損壞中,

普丁阿薩應猶在,只是恨癢癢,

伊朗能有幾多仇,恰似卡倫大江向南流。

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