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想一想,你害怕了嗎? December 11, 2016

Posted by hslu in Computer, Economics, jobs, Knowledge, Travel, US Government.
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​以下是以前大學同學寄來的。我的想法在後面。

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第四次產業革命

如何迎接一個摧毀性的創業時代 (1)

1998年時, Kodak公司 有170,000 員工 ,銷售(洗)全球85%的照片,到2001年,公司就破產了。其實,數位照相機早在1975就發明了,但是積體電路、IC卻要等到2001年才能配合數位相機的速度需求。

現在因為人工智能(AI)的發展,配合更高速度的積體電路,科技正在加快速度的進展。據悉,在很短的5 -10年後,健保、自駕汽車、教育、服務業都將面臨被淘汰的危機。

1. Uber 是一家軟體公司,它沒有擁用汽車,卻能夠讓你「隨叫隨到」有汽車坐,現在,它已是全球最大的Taxi公司了。

2. Airbnb 也是一家軟體公司,它沒有擁有任何旅館,但它的軟體讓你能夠住進世界各地願出租的房間,現在,它已是全球最大的旅館業了。

3. 今年5月,Google的電腦打敗全球最厲害的南韓圍棋高手,因為它開發出有人工智能(AI)的電腦,使用能夠「自己學習」的軟體,所以它的AI能夠加速度的進步,達到比專家原先預期的、提前10年的,成就。

4. 在美國,使用IBM 的Watson電腦軟體,你能夠在幾秒內,就有90%的準確性的法律顧問,比較起只有70% 準確性的人為律師,既便捷又便宜。所以,你如果還有家人親友在讀大學的法律系,建議他們停學省錢,因為市場已大幅的縮減了,未來的世界,只需要現在10%的專業律師就夠了。

5. Watson 也已經能夠幫病人檢驗癌症,而且比醫生正確4 倍。

6. 臉書也有一套AI的軟體可以比人類更準確的鑒察(辨識)人臉,而且無所不在。

7. 到了2030年,AI的電腦會比世界上任何的專家學者還要聰明。 

8. 2017年起,會自動駕駛的汽車就可以在公眾場所使用。約在2020年,整個汽車工業就會遭遇到全面性的改變,你再不需要擁用汽車。你可以用手機叫自動駕駛的車,來帶你到你想去的目的地。

9. 未來的世界,你再也不必擁有車,或花時間加油、停車、排隊去考駕照、交保險費,尤其是城市,將會很安靜,走路很安全,因為90%的汽車都不見了,以前的停車場,將會變成公園。

10. 現在,平均每10萬公里就有一次車禍,造成每年全球有約120萬人的死亡。以後有AI電腦控制的自動駕駛汽車,平均每1000萬公里才有一次車禍,約減少一百萬人死亡。因為保險費和需要保險的人極少,保險公司會面臨更多的倒閉風潮。

11. 大部份的傳統汽車公司會面臨倒閉。Tesla、 Apple、及 Google 的革命性軟體,將會用在每一部汽車上。據悉,Volkswagen 和 Audi 的工程師非常擔心Tesla革命性的電池和人工智能軟體技術。

12. 房地產公司會遭遇極大的變化。因為你可以在車程中工作,距離將不是選住房屋的主要條件之一。市民會選擇住在較遠、但是較空曠且環境優美的鄉村。

13. 電動汽車很安靜,會在2020變成主流。所以城市會很變成安靜,而且空氣乾淨。

14. 太陽能在過去30年也有快速的進展。 去年,全球太陽能的增產超過石油的增產。預計,到2025年時,太陽能的價格(低廉)會使煤礦業大量的破產。因為電費非常的便宜,淨化水及海水淡化的費用大減,人類將能解決人口增加的需水問題。

15. 健保:今年醫療設備商會供應如同「星球大戰」電影中的 Tricorder,讓你的手機做眼睛的掃瞄,呼吸氣體及血液的化學檢驗:用54個「生物指標」,就可檢驗出你是否有任何疾病的徵兆。因為費用低,幾年後,全球人類都可以有世界級的疾病預防服務。

16. 立體列印(3D printing):預計10 年內,3D列印設備會由近20000美元減到400美元,而速度增加100倍快。所有的「個人化」設計鞋子,將開始用這種設備生產,其他如大型的機場,其零件也能使用這種設備供應,至於人類太空船,也會使用這種設備。

17. 今年底,你的手機就會有3D掃瞄的功能,你可以測量你的腳送去做「個人化」鞋子。據悉,在中國,他們已經用這種設備製造了一棟6 層樓辦公室,預計到2027年時, 10% 的產品會用3D的列印設備製造。

18.  產業機會:

a. 工作:20年內,70-80% 的工作會消失,即使有很多新的工作機會,但是不足以彌補被智能機械所取代的原有工作。

b. 農業:將有 $100 機械人耕作,不必吃飯、不用住宅、及支付薪水,只要便宜的電池即可。在開發國家的農夫,將變成機械人的經理。溫室建築物可以有少量的水。到2018年,肉可以從實驗室生產,不必養豬、雞或牛。30%用在畜牧的土地,會變成其他用途的土地。很多初創公司會供給高蛋白質的昆蟲當成食品。

c. 到2020年時 ,你的手機會從你的表情看出,與你說話的人是不是說「假話」? 是否騙人的? 政治人物(如總統候選人)若說假話,馬上會被當場揭發。

d. 數位時代的錢,將是Bitcoin ,是在智能電腦中的「數據」。

e. 教育:最便宜的智能手機在非州是$10美元一隻。

f. 到2020年時,全球70%的人類會有自己的手機,所以能夠上網接受世界級的教育,但大部份的老師會被智能電腦取代。所有的「小學生」都要會寫 Code,你如果不會,你就是像住在Amazon森林中的原住民,無法在社會上做什麼。你的國家,你的孩子準備好了嗎?

參考一下;這也是矽谷 VC, Innovators,Entrepreneurs … 談的資料。

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我的想法如下:

wow!

以後上餐館不用waiter,去銀行不用 teller,買東西不用 cashier,坐公車和高鐵不用 driver,坐飛機不用 pilot,去醫院不用看 doctor,去養老院不用看 nurse,開車不用加油,吃飯不用付小費,買房子不用 agent,牛肉麪不用人煮,sushi 不用人包,旅館會消失,汽車會不見,煤礦沒有人開採,石油沒有人生產,許多公司會倒閉,醫生失業,律師討飯,卡車司機沒飯吃,那人做什麽?

總不能大家都給 Uber,Airbnb,Google,Tesla,Apple 和聯邦政府做事吧。

如果大部分的人没有事做,誰有錢住Airbnb,誰能叫的起 Uber的車,誰買得起 iPhone25?誰有錢去看 Watson的孫子呢?

如果大家都身體健康,病了就在家用3D打個肝臟或直腸,早上去街角的 8-12 找個笑瞇瞇的robot 開個刀,下午就可以回家吃飯了。空氣好,到處是樹木花草,每個人都不生病,個個都長命百歲,世界上這麽多人,大家都吃什麽?說不定連殯儀館都要關門大吉了。

Apple Leak Confirms iPhone 7 Serious Problem July 17, 2016

Posted by hslu in iPhone.
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonkelly/2016/07/17/apple-iphone-7-photos-video-problem/

Source: Forbes


The real problem with Apple on cellphones is that Apple has been and still is a follower for the past several cycles. Apple’s iPhone S7, it appears, is no execption.

10 million the first weekend. But how many have bent? September 26, 2014

Posted by hslu in Economics, iPhone.
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You might want to wait for a new version of iPhone6 plus if you don’t want yours end up like this:

bent iPhone6 plus

Source: C|Net

 

Watch Apple stocks. If more people complaining about bent phones, you want to get out before it is too late.

When company breaks down, it starts with little things: Apple map, antenna, iCloud security breach, Apple OS mistake, bent iPhone6 Plus, etc. Little by little, people lose faith on the company and its products and the halo becomes tarnished and loses its shine over time.

No matter how many times Apple claims to have test its iPhones, the fact of the matter is that Apple’s testing lab may be incompetent and its management may be too confident to see the obvious.

 

 

What would Cook do? Issue a statement saying that he is sorry? May be he’ll bow like many Asian politicians and company executives do.

Apple is behind in coming out new products. The company has been playing catch up for many quarters. Now Cook have a PR disaster on his hand. I doubt that many people will spend $345 for an iWatch.

HTC a goner? October 23, 2013

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, iPhone, jobs, Politics, Shanghai, Taipei, Taiwan.
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A disturbing news about HTC cutting down its cellphone productions in Taiwan and China certainly didn’t help HTC’s stock which has already lost almost 90% of its market value since 2011:

Chart forHTC CORPORATION (2498.TW)

10-year stock chart of Taiwan’s HTC.

I believe many Taiwanese have been 套牢了by this stock as well because they bought the stock as it was moving up in 2010 and are still holding them in their brokerage accounts after it dropped from the record high of 新台币 1,238 to 新台币 136 now: a drop of 89% in about two and half years.

HTC is short of cash and has experienced disappointing sales in the US and China. The company may disappear or it may be taken over by someone else.

Another Taiwanese stock that is also facing difficult time is Acer.

Chart forACER INC TWD10 (2353.TW)

Acer 5-year stock chart

The reduction of PC sales worldwide hit Acer particularly hard. Its newer version of notebooks and tablets just couldn’t compete with tables from Apple and Samsung. It is losing market shares fast and the company probably doesn’t have enough cash to turn it around now. It once spent millions to hire CEO from foreign countries to run the company but Acer’s market share didn’t improve with foreign management. Unless the company can come up with something significantly new, it, along with HTC, may follow Nokia and Blackberry into sunset and cease to exist soon.

Two of Taiwan’s once brilliant technology companies are experiencing such a difficult time in the market place is very disturbing. To many Taiwanese, it probably feels like that the legs which were supporting Taiwan’s future was severed at the knees. Lack of funds to promote its products in the US and China may be one of its problems even though its products are on par or even better than those came out of Apple and Samsung. When a company’s market share is shrinking, it negatively impact its cash flow which hurts everything from research, innovation, product development and marketing. When we were in Shanghai about a month ago, we went to The Bund and saw Samsung’s Galaxy S4 was prominently marketed on the big screen in Pudong.

I am certain that the top management of both companies is responsible for misjudged the competitions from Apple and Samsung. I also wondered out loud that the in-fighting between 国民党 and 民进党 in the name of democracy probably bears some blame as well.

Maybe the outflow of top-notch professionals and professors to China in search for a decent salary had something to do with this too.

The bottom line is this: Taiwan’s problem is structural and is deep-rooted. It has rocked Taiwan’s foundation and has affected Taiwan’s GDP growth. Everywhere we go, Taipei’s streets and shops are filled with well-dressed and fashionable teenagers and people in their 20’s and 30’s. The restaurants are crowed and busy. TPE airport is busy with tourist groups to China, Japan, Korea, other countries in Asia and Australia. The younger generation is spending their parents’ wealth because they can’t make it by themselves with Taiwan’s GDP growing at 2%. If Taiwan’s government is still sitting on its hands and if 马英九 is still fighting with his own party’s members, there will be more companies like HTC and Acer going down the drain. Jobs will be lost and confidence on the ruling party will be undercut too.

Maybe 马英九  should throw the government’s weight to help these tow companies. Just a thought.

 

Shame on you, Icahn October 8, 2013

Posted by hslu in stocks.
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Stock markets in the U.S. are manipulated by rich people like Icahn who front runs small investors, tweets about his large holding on certain stocks, profits from his tweets and gets away from it.

Shame on you, Icahn.

Here is what I mean:

The headline of an article on CNBC’s website on 10/7/2013 reads like this:

“Shares jump on Icahn’s energy company tweet”

Here is the tweet according to CNBC:

“Disclosed approx 61 million share position in Talisman Energy. May have conversations with mgmt re strategic alternatives, board seats, etc.”

After the tweet, Talisman’s stock jumped 9% after market closed that day.

In August 2013, Icahn’s tweet on Apple pushed AAPL’s market capitalization up by $17 billion.

This kind of open manipulation is unjust, unethical and above all unfair to small investors.

It should be banned.

The solution is simple:

Icahn should tweet his intention to sell his holding three days before he actually sells them.

This is only fair.

Acer and HTC: 台湾的缩影 September 28, 2013

Posted by hslu in China, Computer, Economics, Global Affair, iPhone, Taiwan.
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531期的天下雜誌 (2013-9-8) 问:台灣科技品牌为何屡屡落敗?

The magazine was talking about Taiwan’s two tech companies:  宏碁 Acer and  宏達電 HTC

I own an Acer laptop since 2011 and liked it a lot. It’s cheap and performs as well as comparable products from Dell and HP. Although I have used Apple iPhone3 and have recently switched to Samsung’s Galaxy S4, I heard that HTC’s phones are equally good. 

That being said, these two companies’ stocks can only be described as 惨不忍睹。

See for yourself:

宏碁/Acer 5-year chart

 

My first answer is: 台湾的顶尖人才都跑到中国大陆去了。台湾的教授也跑到中国大陆去了。Pay there is better。Period。台湾, in a way, 被别人从上面和中间掏空了。The majority of businesses staying put in Taiwan are service oriented: restaurants, massage shops, travel related companies, night markets and taxis.

My second answer is: 爸爸(国民党)和妈妈(民进党)天天吵架,家里的小孩(台湾的人民和公司)这么能长的好呢?Both parties are fighting hard to strengthening their own party. They are not working for the people. They are working for their party instead.

My third answer is:台湾的教育失败。See for yourself:

wpid-20130826_011152.jpg

wpid-20130826_011313.jpg

My fourth answer is: 台湾’s problems are structural in nature. Taiwan has been very good at putting things together for other companies. It may have slacked behind on fundamental researches which are very critical in the highly competitive technology space. The central government has been throwing money in the area of social welfare to please the voters for years. By doing so, it didn’t do what it supposed to do: helps Taiwan’s businesses compete with other companies in the world which enjoy total support from their respective governments.

Taiwan’s current leader,马英九, has over the past six years been fighting for the survivor of his political life. He lacks the vision to help companies such as Acer and THC and is powerless under the constant attack from the opposition party. He hasn’t shown any leadership quality and is mired in a dismal approval rating of low teens.

My fifth answer is:The CEO of both companies probably have squandered their respective company’s good fortune, became lazy at the top and didn’t adapt to the changing landscape. Once they starts to play catching up, their technological advantages were gone. We call this: 创业维艰守成不易。

If something is not done fast, both companies, along with hundreds of jobs, will by gone soon.

 

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