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名嘴和美國政治 October 15, 2017

Posted by hslu in Congress, 美國, Democracy, Election, Globlization, Islam, Liberal Media, Middle East, Muslim, Politics, Racial Bias, Russia, Taxes, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, US Government, 川普.
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臺灣的政治,社會的輿論,人民的想法和朝代(中央和地方)的變遷被電視上的名嘴操縱,掌控。這些人爲他們的政治理念在電視臺的節目中大放厥詞,打擊政府,攻擊個人,企圖左右地方和中央選舉的結果。無知的百姓很容易被這些人影響,而政府的政策就被這些人綁架了。

美國一樣也有名嘴:無線電臺保守派政治論壇節目主持人(在過去,自由派的政治論壇節目幾乎沒辦法生存),電視臺新聞節目主持人,週末和夜晚新聞節目的主持人和網路上保守派,激進派和自由派的護衛者。

Steve Bannon (班農) 就是一個典型的例子。

他說話頭頭是道,口無遮攔,極會罵人。他對美國在世界上的霸權有無比堅定的信念。他堅絕反對貿易全球化,反伊朗,反蘇俄,反北韓,反中國,反歐盟,反美國的盟友用美國錢。他主張在邊界築圍牆把中南美洲的違法移民擋在牆外。他反對有些穆斯林國家的阿拉伯人來美國,厭惡共和黨中反對川普的參議員和眾議員,反對現有的共和黨體系,也強烈的反民主黨的政治立場。

他在川普的小圈圈裏位高權重,深得川普長久的信任。可是在川普進白宮以後,他跟川普的女兒,女婿和其他顧問,部長不和,最後不得以被川普解僱。可是他在無官一身輕的情況之下,威脅共和黨參,眾議員,打擊在明年美期中要競選連任的議員。

其實,他威脅現任參議院首領 McMconnell,和即將退休的參議員 Corker 的真正目的,是恐嚇其他共和黨參議員,要他們三緘其口,不可以公開批評或反對川普,要這些人爲共和黨和川普推行的稅改政策投下贊成的一票。

現在,共和黨的52個參議員中只有三,四個參議員敢對川普和共和黨的稅改提案有任何異議。他們也極有可能會投反對票。除了 Corker 和生癌症的 McCain  以外,川普還需要擔心緬因州的 Collins 和阿拉斯加的 Murkowski 參議員很可能會反對共和黨和稅改政策。

川普知道這個道理。班農當然也知道這個道理。所以,班農的責任就是儘量打擊 McConnell 和 Corker,殺一儆百,告訴其他的共和黨參議員,你們最好乖乖的通過共和黨提出來的稅改政策,不然下一個目標就是反對稅改政策的共和黨參議員了。

共和黨在美國的眾議院有壓倒的多數,許多眾議員也不敢公開反對川普,因為川普的鐵票可能高達 30%,甚至 35% 的選民。如果眾議員公開反對川普,那他們競選得連任的機會就不大了。

這是美國民主政治黑暗的一面。許多中國人,尤其是年輕的中國人,包括臺灣的年輕人在內,以為美國的民主政治是世界上至高無上,最純潔,最公平的治國標準。沒人一票多麼神聖阿! 他們那裏知道美國的民主政治實際上早就被有錢人和有特殊要求的團體綁架了。

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Medicare is under the knife. Again! October 5, 2017

Posted by hslu in Congress, Debt and deficit, Democracy, Obamacare, Politics, Taxes, Trump.
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Reid, Pelosi and Obama took $716 billion from Medicare in 2012 to pay for Obamacare. AARP did very little to prevent it becoming the law of the land. Now, the program is blowing up in the market place and is adding trillions to the national debt.

This time around, it’s Republican’s turn to make a deep cut, about $500 billions, to the Medicare budgets because the Republican controls all three branches of the American government. 

Source: Vox

Source: Flipboard

In addition to Medicare, Medicaid is on the chopping blocks too. Budgets for Medicaid will be cut by roughly $1 trillion. 

Source: Flipboard

To get money to pay for Republican’s tax cut, it means that something else from the federal government’s budget has to be slashed to make the tax cut legislature revenue neutral. Budgets for Medicare and Medicaid are just two of the tens, if not hundreds, of federal programs to be cut by the Republican’s tax reform.

Well, more details of the tax reform plan will come out in the next few weeks. No matter what kind of bill the House ends up with, it is a done deal because Democrat is totally out-numbered and out-maneuvered. Democrat in the Senate is hopeless to prevent this from becoming law in the Senate but several Republican senators may be able to make the damage to Medicare budget as little as possible.

We’ll just have to wait to see what happens next in the Congress. Not much we the tax payers can do now because it’s democracy.

3% vs 2% September 30, 2017

Posted by hslu in 美國, Do you know?, Economics, Health Insurance, Obamacare, Taxes.
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We’re talking about the growth rate of American’s economy in the next 10 years.

Trump, well his underling, said that America’s economy will grow 3% on average for the next 10 years after Republican’s tax reform is enacted as law.

Source: Bloomberg.

You see, Republican and Democrat are ‘兩個烏鴉一般黑’, they are ‘一丘之貉’. They use this kind of financial trick to tell American citizens that even though their program, be it Obamacare in 2009 or tax reform in 2017, will increase deficit, but the resulting higher economic growth will generate enough taxes to make the new program budget neutral: a term you will hear repeatly before the end of this year.

Do you know the impact on American’s national debt if the economy grew 2% instead of 3%? 

About $2 trillion. And that’s assuming the U.S. won’t fall into a recession and no funny accounting gimmicks.

Last year, the U.S. federal deficit was $590 billion but the national debt rose by $1.4 trillion; a whoppying $810 billion difference.

Why? Where did $810 billion go?

Well, check out this link below and read yourself.

https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2016/11/02/thanks-to-obamacare-government-debt-is-worse-than-you-think/amp/#ampshare=https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2016/11/02/thanks-to-obamacare-government-debt-is-worse-than-you-think/
Allow me to give you some highlights to get you started:

Do you know that government’s borrowing to make student loans and repairs on highways and bridges aren’t classified as deficit? These items are ‘investments’ so that they don’t count as deficit. In addition, the U.S. government had to borrow some money to pay for social welfare recipiants because the government didn’t collect enough taxes from FICA deductions to pay for social welfare benefits: social security, Medicare and ACA. There are more in the article if your blood pressure is under control.

A warning: as powerful as America is, all bean counters working for the federal government couldn’t figure out where $82 billion went.

This is your America.

Let the fight begin September 28, 2017

Posted by hslu in Congress, 美國, Economics, Taxes, Trump.
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The fight is on tax reform proposed by the Republicans and endorsed by Trump.

The new proposal calls for roughly doubling of the standard deduction which in essence eliminates many tax payers’ incentive to itemize (schedule A). Deductions on medical expenses including health insurance payment, lab, test and doctor fees, medicines and other costs, probably will be gone. 

Mortgage interest deduction will be gone too for some tax payers because their itemized deductions will be lower than the standard deductions. As such, even the new plan calls for retention of mortgage interest deductions, this deduction is basically eliminated for most tax payers.

Well, none of this new rules on deductions will affect me but I’ll be happy to take the doubling of the standard exemption starting with the 2017 tax return.

However, I don’t think Republican’s tax reform proposal will be revenue neutral. Where will the new revenue come ftom to offset the tax cuts for higher income and the super-rich tax payers? Don’t forget the corporate income tax will be cut by roughly 42%, from ~35% to 20%? On top of that, the death tax will be eliminate too.

I know that Republican will rely on a bigger pie to collection more taxes because tax reform, Republican will argue, will grow the economy which will provide a bigger tax base to collect federal tax from.

Suck it up, I married a rich daddy August 23, 2017

Posted by hslu in Taxes, US Government.
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2017 Kia Soul: $12,610

Lousie Linton’s Outfit: $15,735

Linton’s Husband: Steven Mnuchine

Suck it up, I am rich

川普是君子還是小人? August 12, 2017

Posted by hslu in Taxes, Trump.
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​很簡單的一個問題。別忘了,川普是美國總統。

  • 君子的定義:

儒家認為,君子是《富有禮儀規範,具有高道德標準的人。》

小人:

儒家認為,小人是《不嚴格遵守道德和規則,沒有高尚人格,搬弄是非,或私下謀害別人的人。》

你覺得美國現任總統川普是:

  1. 君子,
  2. 小人,
  3. 兩個都不是,
  4. 自戀狂。

    那,什麼是自戀狂呢?一般來說,自戀狂有以下的特徵:

    1. 自以為是,自視甚高。誇大自己的成就。
    2. 對自己的成功,權力,榮譽有非分的幻想。
    3. 相信自己獨一無二。看不起其他人。
    4. 喜歡別人讚美他,恭維他,巴結他。
    5. 認為自己享有特殊的權力。
    6. 獵取他人的利益,以達到自己的目的。
    7. 不在乎他人的感受以及需求。
    8. 嫉妒他人。還相信別人嫉妒他的成就。
    9. 高傲自大,粗鲁,謾罵他人。
    10. 隨意批評他人也非常在乎他人對他的批評。

    你覺得川普是什麼?




    Making sense March 22, 2017

    Posted by hslu in Debt and deficit, Taxes, Trump, US Government.
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    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2017/03/22/john-stossel-is-trumps-budget-draconian-careless-and-counterproductive.html

    I enjoy reading John Stossel’s comments and watching his TV shows.

    The U.S. national debt limit March 19, 2017

    Posted by hslu in Debt and deficit, Economics, Taxes, US Government.
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    March 16, 2017 is an important date for U.S. federal government because it can no longer borrow from the public as it has been in the past to fund its operations.

    The American national debt will be frozen at its current level: about $20.1 trillion because the mandatory debt level has been reached.

    But, that doesn’t mean America is out of cash to pay its bills: principal and interest on the debt, social security benefits, Medicare and Medicaid payments, salary to government workers and soldiers and payments to government contractors for F-35 stealth fighter jets, new Ford class aircraft carrier, M-4 assault rifles and M1 A3 Abrams tanks. 

    However, there will be no infrastructure projects. No Trump border wall. no  tax cuts for American citizens and no tax relief for American corporates until the debt limit is raised by the Congress.

    As of now, the Treasury Dept has to use extraordinary measures to keep the federal government from shutting down until about October or November 2017. By then, Congress has to raise the debt limit or the U.S. government will be in bankruptcy.

    Assuming the debt limit is lifted in time, when will this borrowing end? 

    Maybe America can use the threat of bankruptcy to re-negotiate with its creditors. Several optionsare available such as forcing creditors to take 60% haircut on all outstanding loans, change the term of existing loans to 100 years and modify interest rates on all loans to negative.

    Alternatively, American federal government, maybe all Americans should consider this option too, should cut up every credit card it uses and start living within its means.

    Is this likely in the next two decades? Not a chance unless pink pig flies.

    Borrow till you drop January 9, 2017

    Posted by hslu in China, Debt and deficit, Economics, Global Affair, Military, Putin, Russia, Taxes, US Government.
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    As if the U.S. isn’t spending enough on defense, Navy wants to build 355 more ships in the next 30 years. The initiative is the result of Trump’s denand to re-build American’s arm forces to counter the threats from China and Russia.

    Since Navy revealed its wish list, Army, Air Force and Marines will send in their’s too. Then there is Coast Guard and Special Ops. Every department wants a piece of the big pie.

    America defense spending already accounts for ~45% of the total defense spending by every nation in the world.

    But, where will the money come from; Medicare, Medicaid, ObamaCare, education or food stamps? Will the Freedom Caucus go along with this kind of reckless spending? Will Democrats play dead and let Trump have his way? No way.

    U.S.national debt is already a whopping $20 trillion right before Obama’s moving vans clear 了the White House gate. With Trump in the WH, it is likely that U.S. annual deficit will explode to the upside and forcing America borrowing 0even more from its foreign credictors. But, will they? If they reduce their purchases, market interest rate of the weekly Treasury auctions will rise.

    With the U.S. economy and labor market reportly poised to improve after spending the past 8 years in the out house, the Fed will be forced to raise the overnight lending rates. It will push all lending rates higher which will increase the interest payment on American’s national debt. 

    In a rising rate environment, what the Fed should have done is to sell the short term Treasury notes and replace them with long term Bonds to lock in low rates before they go up. But, that’s not what the Fed is doing. As a result, interest payment on U.S. national debt will be out of control in a few years.

    Empire comes and empire goes. The first sign of trouble usually shows up in too much debt. The empire of America is still sailing at pretty high speed but the load it carries gets heavier and heavier and the hole under the boat gets bigger and bigger. 

    Do you get the picture now?

    Very well said, Obama November 16, 2016

    Posted by hslu in Election, jobs, Military, Muslim, Obamacare, Politics, Taxes, Trump.
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    Trump have to learn quickly once in the office. There will be no honey moon for him either.

    Source: Reuters. Obama on Trump’s new job.

    Trump probably will break many of his campaign promises because he’ll have no choice but to wake up to the reality:

    Trump promised to:

    Bring jobs back to America,

    Strengthen military,

    Brand China a currency manipulator,

    Make “fair trade” instead of “free trade,”

    Build a wsll and have Mexico pay for it,

    Deport 11 million illegal Immigrants,

    Repeal Obamacare,

    Have Korea and Japan pay for their own defenses,

    Get rid of NAFTA,

    Stop TPP,

    Save Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security without cutting benefits,
    Surveil mosques in the United States,

    Prosecute Hillary Clinton,

    。。。。。。

    We’ll be counting.

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