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Is the day of reckoning just around the corner? September 11, 2018

Posted by hslu in Congress, Economics, Election, Globlization, Japan, Middle East, Oil, Russia, Stocks, Trade, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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Why America’s Sub-4% Unemployment Rate Means A Recession Is Not Far Off


Signs of danger are abound everywhere you look. Here are ten of them:

1. 4% Unemployment rate,

Source: Forbes

2. Inverted yield curve,

Source: Forbes

3. High stock market capitalization to GDP ratio,

Source: Forbes

4. Rising federal funds rate,

Source: Forbes

5. Reduced liquidity: The Feds has changed from QE to QT and almost all central banks around the world are pulling funds from the economies,

6. Trump’s trade wars against the world. China has vowed to fight back and Japan is Trump’s next target,

7. Turmoils in just about every corners of the world many of them instigated by Trump’s foreign policy,

8. Potential of House flipping back to the Democrats and the endless inquiries and investigations against Trump and his policies,

9. Higher oil price due to increasing demands and U.S. sanction against Iran,

10. Passive investments in ETFs poses a danger to the market when herd metality prompts investors to sell their holdings in droves on the first sign of market instability.

America is at it again, but June 24, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Globlization, Japan, Renminbi, Trade, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Source: Flipboard


Japan’s yielding to America’s pressure in 1985 at the Plaza Hotel in New York was the beginning of the end of Japan’s brief dominance in world trade. The Plaza Accord and what Japanese government chose to do afterwards started the the long and devastating decline of the Japanese economy. To this date, Japan is still counting the lost decades with no end insight.

Source: Google image

America used atomic bombs to defeat the Japanese empire in 1945 without invading Japan. Forty years later, America used another nuclear bomb, this time a financial one, to finish Japan once and for all.

The author compared the current escalatingl trade war between China and the U.S. to what the U.S. has done to Japan in 1985. He cited several reasons that China might face the same fate as Japan did 40 years ago. Among them a less developed financial system, not as innovative as Japan and an alarming debt level.

However, he misses several key differences between Japan in 1985 and China in 2018:

  • America is fighting the trade war against China on its own. Worse, America under Trump is fighting an escalating trade wars against its former allies and many other countries at the same time. America is destined to lose the trade war and suffer significant job losses judging by recent history. Back in 1985, America had help from Great Britain, France and West Germany.
  • In 1985, Japanese yen was forced to strengthen against American dollar and other major currencies via market manipulation by the U.S. and its allies. Renminbi isn’t freely traded now and its exchange rate is set by the Chinese government. Lately, Renminbi has been losing value against the U.S. dollar which will alleviate the impacts of America’s tariff against China.
  • America is much weaker now economically compares to the U.S. in 1985. The U.S. has fought two wars with nothing to show for except dead bodies and several trillion dollars down the drain. America is facing terrorist threat daily. The war on terror is a tax on all Americans and it is like a cancer with no cure on American economy. Growth rate has been stuck at a lower level for many years. Wage growth hasn’t caught up with inflation. Debts at every levels are much higher. Federal deficit is approaching 5% of GDP. Welfare spending is shooting through the roof. Defense spending is standing ata ridiculous 3.5% of the GDP. And the demographics isn’t helping either.
  • Chinese government is a centralized government. It can react to market changes more quickly and be more efficient in policy execution and adaptation.
  • China has a much bigger domestic market while Japan’s economy was heavily dependent on export.


Trump 腦筋有問題 June 19, 2018

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Global Affair, Globlization, Japan, Trade, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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你說 Trump 是腦筋裏有漿糊,頭腦太簡單,說話不經大腦,還是老的糊里糊塗了?

Trump 在 G7 時說過這些話:

1。他跟日本的 Abe 說:”Shinzo,你沒有歐洲難民潮的問題。不過,我可以送兩千五百萬個墨西哥人去日本,這樣你沒多久就會下台了”。

你說 Abe 是笑好,是哭好還是打哈哈好?Abe 有沒有回答,我們不知道,不過,話說回來,日本還真需要一些移民。君不見日本有些村莊都是老人,因為他們太寂寞了,所有做了一些跟人一樣的布娃娃擺在椅子上,讓他們覺得不會那麽孤單。

2。當話題轉到伊朗後,Trump 跟法國的馬空總統說:”你一定知道這件事,艾曼紐,因為所有的恐怖分子都在巴黎。”

Hmmm….,所有的恐怖分子都在巴黎?我艾曼紐怎麼不知道呢?不知道 Trump 從那裏得來的馬路消息。要不然就是 Trump 信口開河,吹牛不打草稿,不知道自己說什麽話?

在場的其他幾位國家領袖,部長和隨從個個都皺著眉頭,低頭不語。其實,他們都知道,老 Trump 又犯糊塗了。可是大家都不能說什麽,也不好意思把這個醜事揭開,只有嘆口氣,自認倒霉。

除此之外,你看看 Trump 的表現像個君子呢還是跟一個地痞流氓差不多。

  • 堂堂的美國總統來加拿大參加 G7 會議,竟自以為了不起,故意晚到,讓別人等他。
  • 第二天下午要討論世界氣候變化和巴黎氣候合約,Trump 怕被其他國家的領袖攻擊,腳底抹油,先溜了。
  • 他在開溜之前同意要簽G7的共同宣告,上了飛機以後又反悔。
  • Trump 要從加拿大進口的鋼鐵和鋁增加進口關稅。加拿大的 PM Trudeau 宣佈加拿大要予以報復。Trump 聽了不爽,居然罵 Trudeau 懦弱無能,還叫他的兩個下屬出來罵 Trudeau ,說他背叛美國,還說地獄裏已經留了一個特別位置給 Trudeau。實在是不成體統。
  • Trump 出賣美國的盟友,可是對美國的敵人,北韓的金正恩,卻讚賞有加。在幾個禮拜以前,Trump 說了金正恩許多壞話,還用核子武器威脅他,要他去死。誰知道,Trump 跟他見了一面以後,竟然改口說金正恩深受北韓人民的愛戴。還大拍金正恩的馬屁說金正恩聰明,是一個非常好的人,更是一個好的談判家。

你說 Trump 是不是老來痴呆發了病,犯了糊塗。不但搞不懂基本的禮節,還分不清是非,弄不懂對錯?


No doubt about it June 12, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, 特朗普, 美國, Economics, Japan, Military, Obama, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 中國.
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Sourc; CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/12/china-is-having-a-big-day-after-trump-kim-summit-ex-diplomats.html

It will be a wonderful day for China and Koreas when American troops are completely out of the Korean peninsula. America’s defense budget will probably shrink by about $1.5 billion per year too.

Of course, America has about 50,000 troops and an aircraft carrier fleet stationed in Japan which probably cost the U.S. tax payers $5.5 billion each year. Well, has any American asked just what kind of return has America received from that kind of investment for the past 50 years? Of course, Japanese economy got an unwanted boost from American tax payers and local bars saw a bunch of drunken American soldiers over the weekends.

But, what did American taxpayers get other than some jobs in defense related companies such as Honeywell, Raytheon, LM and GD? Not much more!

人是多麽的渺小啊! June 10, 2018

Posted by hslu in Japan, misc.
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除了高溫,臺灣還沒雨。臺灣從南到北許多水庫的存水量也達到了危險的底限。臺灣是個小島,沒電,沒水還沒有辦法向別人買。沒電是民進黨製造出來的問題,而沒有雨則是老天不幫忙。人雖然萬能,高高的坐在 food chain 的最上面,碰到這種事還真是一點辦法都沒有。


馬里蘭州前一陣子下了大雨。就在離我們以前住過的northern Virginia 不遠的 Ellicott City 發生了一千年一次的大水災。水災一來,人一點辦法都沒有,能夠保住命以外,只有站在邊上看的份。



Ellicott City 的市中心變成一條大河。走的不是人是漂在河上的車子。

最近一個月的重頭戲是 Hawaii 的 Kilauea 火山和 Guatemala 的 Fuego 火山了。

夏威夷的 Kilauea 火山是一個月以前爆發的。目前為止,有六百間大大小小的房子被岩漿掩埋了。人除了跑,對即將到來的岩漿可說是一點辦法都沒有。連修改它的路線都沒有辦法。至於火山什麼時候會爆發,什麼時候會停,下一個裂層會在什麼地方會出現,這個萬能的人可以說是根本不知道。


瓜地馬拉的 Fuego 火山是最近幾天爆發的。它和夏威夷的 Kilauea 火山不一樣。它爆出來的除了岩漿以外,最令人膽戰心驚的是高熱的灰塵無孔不入,吸入肺臟必死無疑。就算能躲過灰塵,碰到有毒的氣體一樣無法活命。目前知道的是:百來人死了,還有將近200人失蹤。這些可憐的居民根本沒有機會逃離現場,因為它來的實在太快了。

還有一個更可怕的天災就是地震和地震引起的海嘯了。最近一次最可怕,影響最深遠和最有名的地震就是2011年3月11日發生在東日本的 9 級大地震和海嘯了:Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami。因地震而延發的海嘯使得東日本好幾個縣受到無法想象的人命和財產損失。死亡人數約一萬六千人,六千多人受傷,兩千多人失蹤。財產損失估計超過美金 $360 billion。當地震和海嘯來的時候,車,船,房屋和建築物在海嘯的摧殘之下根本沒有機會保留。人們死的死,傷的傷,運氣好一點的還可以逃命,運氣不好的竟落得個屍骨無存。

更爲嚴重的是 Tōhoku 海嘯引發了影響深遠的核能災害:Tōhoku 海嘯不但使福島核能發電廠 (Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant) 第一核電站反應爐的設備嚴重受損,還使得反應爐的爐心完全熔毀,進而釋放出放射性物質到空氣和海中。這個核能災害到如今還不能有效的控制,它的影響可能長達好幾十年。



戎参,エビス参,長泰廣場,浦東張江 March 23, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Economics, Food, Japan, Restaurants, Shanghai, 浦東.
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開放式的廚房在後面,邊上有一個不是很正式的吧檯,不大,也沒有什麼酒。Sake 也不多。五個廚子在廚房做事。可惜兩個烤臺太小,忙起來,烤的東西要等好一陣子。







美國來的 TFI Fridays 關門大吉了。我們經過它的門口許多許多次,就從來沒看過它忙過。好大的餐館,跟美國的一樣。再見了。

美國來的 Dunkin Donut 沒了,





Papa Johns 三月初關的門,現在正在重新裝潢。說真的,每次經過它只有小貓兩三隻。我們來過一次,它比 Pizza Hut 和 KFC 要差多了。它能留到現在還真不簡單,重新裝潢,改菜單,想要捲土重來。有志氣。









French fries 差了點,可能是舊油炸出來的。炸的時間也不夠,不夠脆。下次不叫。炸大蝦子還可以。


Bacon wrapped sweet peppers 和雞的軟骨。少了點。


臺灣的經濟有問題? November 2, 2017

Posted by hslu in Economics, Japan, jobs, Taipei, Taiwan, Travel, 台灣, 台北.
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這是上個禮拜六 (2017/10/28) 在台北市信義區 101 大樓邊上,世貿一館舉行的國際旅遊展。最多的旅遊地點就是日本,韓國和東南亞的幾個國家。日本有名的大城市或是無名的鄉下都有地方可以讓你去花台幣。可惜的是這些人都帶著新臺幣去國外替別的國家製造工作機會去了。






我們花了$350 (差不多$12美金),進去逛了一圈,不到一個鐘頭。裏面擠的要死,問了幾個問題,吃了半個不要錢的,很小的,不怎麽甜的冰淇淋,拿了一大堆廣告就出來了。結果裏面沒有免費的點心,好的袋子都發完了。沒什麽意思。



Mr. Tillerson, you can’t quit now. October 4, 2017

Posted by hslu in Cold War, 美國, Global Affair, Japan, Military, Russia, Trump.
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Mr. Tillerson was ExxonMobil’s CEO before taking the job of Secretary of State for Trump.

For the past eight and half months, Mr. Tillerson tried very, very hard, like Trump would say, to do his job but was roundly undercut by his boss every step of the way from the very beginning. 

Most recently, Mr. Tillerson opened a direct communication channel with North Korea so that the situation on Korean Peninsula can be resolved diplomatically.

But Trump asked Tillerson to stop talking to North Korea and said that he’ll take care of the ‘little rocket man.’ 

He then fired out another tweet which went like this:

So, what did Trump mean with his second tweet? 

It was obvious to me that Trump meant taking out Kim Jong En by force.

It means war against North Korea.

With Trump’s second tweet, it seems, that there are several possible outcomes: 

1. Trump orders, with Pentagon’s support and agreements from Tillerson and security advisors, a pre-emptive attack by American forces to disable Kim Jong En’s killing machine and prevent any loss of lives of south  Korean anf Japanese people. 

2. Kim Jong En surrenders under the threat of Trump’s tweets and gives up his nuclear ambition. 

3. A nuclear war started by Kim Jong En and retaliated by Trump.

4. Trump backs down like many of his previous Twitter threats and loses his and American’s credibility again.

The first option won’t work and Trump knows it. Trump can’t neutralize North Korean’s military apparatus fast enough before millions of South Koreans, Americans and Japanese people die from Kim Jong En’s attacks. South Korean military isn’t likely to agree with this option. Japan will have doubts too because it won’t succeed.

The second option won’t happen because Kim Jong En can’t stop developing his nuclear weapons. Without the threat of nuclear weapons, Kim Jong En, like Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi before him, will die in the hands of America. Millions of North Korean people will die and America will control the entire Korean Peninsula. South Korea will be a puppet of the USA. China can’t let this happen and will step in with the troops it has at the border. Russia can stand idle either. 

If Pentagon, Tillerson and Congress agree with Trump, option 3 will be the most likely outcome. But I don’t believe Kim Jong En will start the fight first.

If Tillerson and Pentagon doesn’t agree with Trump, Trump has no option but eats his own tweets like he has already done so many times before. This is the 4th option. Congress won’t allow it to happen either. 

Do you see another option? 

There isn’t one.

So, please, Mr. Tillerson, for the sake of the humanity, hangs in there and, if necessary, beats some senses out of that dotard with a 2 by 4 if necessary. We need a few adults.in the WH because Trump is out of his mind.

Since we are talking about nuclear weapons here, did America voice any objection when India and Pakistan were developing their nuclear weapon technologies? Did America say anything about Israel’s nuclear missiles? 

North Korea will eventually have nuclear weapons and Iran will eventually have nuclear weapons. Why? For their own national interests.

And which country was the first and only one which had used a nuclear weapon on another country?

And which country has thousands of nuclear armed missiles ready to be used on its enemies for the sake of its national interests?

And which country has invaded and bombed other countries in the name of its national security?

Mr. Tillerson, I know Trump is waiting for 
you to quit so that he doesn’t have to fire you. I know Nikki Haley wants you to step down because Trump likes her and will make her your replacement. Haley is just a mouth piece for Trump. Nothing more. Nothing less. She wants your job so she talks tough to get Trump’s notice.

    So, Mr. Tillerson, you see, you can’t resign. The world peace is in your hands.

    And above all a bellicose and unpredictable Trump September 8, 2017

    Posted by hslu in 美國, Global Affair, Islam, Japan, Middle East, Military, Muslim, Putin, Russia, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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    The statement below by Jens Stoltenberg, the head of NATO, is true but Stoltenberg should have added bellicose Trump to the mix too.

    But, Jens Soltenberg fogot to mention that the U.S., Russia, Israel, India, Parkistan and China, among others, have thousands of nuclear warheads pointing to each other at all times.

    That’s a real perliferation of weapons of mass destruction indeed.

    Trump vs Kim: A pictorial primer August 3, 2017

    Posted by hslu in Global Affair, Japan, Military, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy.
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    First of all, take your pick to put the contest into context.

    1. 30 somthing vs. Grandpa.
    2. Happy face vs. sad face.
    3. 80後 vs. 歐吉桑


    Trump to Kim: 

    We’ll take you out by force. 


    Trump to Graham: 

    Tell Kim that I an dead serious about what I intend to do to Kim.


    Kim to Trump: Take this and shove it.

    Self explanatory. No further explanation is needed.


    Trump to China:

    It’s China’s fault because you are not doing your job and I, the president of the most powerful nation in the milky way galaxy and the leader of the world won’t allow it. Go talk to Kim and tell him to behave.


    China to Trump: 

    It’s not my problem. You started it and it’s up to you to solve it. 

    Btw, China has a saying about you: 解鈴還需系鈴人. Use Google translation to figure out what we mean. You might learn something.

    Well, China declares that North Korea is not a Chinese problem. It is a U.S. problem. China also points out that it was Trump who started the conflict in the first place. Trump can solve the North Korea problem himself and China will step aside and watch with amusement.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Trump to Tillerson

    Damn it, Rex. It appears our show of force isn’t working. Tillerson, do something! Let’s fly you to Pyongyang to talk to Kim instead. Rex, it is up to you now. Go do your job or I’ll fire you.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Tillerson to Kim:

    I am going to use the good cop/bad cop routine to deal with you.
    First of all, Trump was just kidding when he said that he’ll kill Kim. Actually, he didn’t mean it. He want to be friends with Kim. He said a lot of stupid things like dreaming up phone calls from Boy Scout and president of Mexico. Don’t take Trump too seriously. He has a big mouth and lousy memory. He dreams a lot too.

    Trump has a change of heart because Trump has all the fire power at his disposal but can’t fire a single shot. It’s all because of you (Kim). You doesn’t give a damn about Trump’s empty threats and keeps firing missiles to the sky. Can’t you just take a break and stop firing misdiles for a week or two. Trump needs some quiet time and peace of mind. Leaders around the world see him as a joke. Just ask France’s pretty face. He won’t let Trump’s hand go.

    My job here is to find a ladder for Trump to climb down from without losing too much face? Can you just do that for old Rex. We can talk about having ExxomMobil do some work for you in private after dust settles. You know I have great 關係 at XOM.


    So what now, Trump? 

    What are you going to do with Carl Vinson, Ronald Reagon and 20+ warships currently carrying out drills around Korean Peninsula? Was it 60+ warships instead of 20+? Isn’t there is a third aircraft carrier coming to Korean water to form an “armada”? 

    What will happen to your “ironclad commitment” to protect South Korea and Japan since North Korea keeps sending missiles into the sky? You know that “IC” phrase is very catchy. It has that powerful ring to it when you say it so forcefully.



    Wait for my tweets. That’s when I tell the truth. I have a country to run.



    Busy working on another ICBM test.


    Working on 一帶一路


    Hacking into U.S. 2018 election headquarters and dig more dirt on Hillary and Bill. They deserve to go to jail. Chinese call this: 吃幾天牢飯。


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