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Everyone knew Trump lied about and later foolishly covered up the collusion August 8, 2018

Posted by hslu in 特朗普, 美國, Democracy, Politics, Trump, 川普, 民主.
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It was a very stupid move by a very stupid Trump when the stupid Trump told his stupid Jr. what to say after the Trump Tower meeting with the lawyer from Russia. The stupid Trump and everyone else, including Fox News’s Hannity, knew about the collusion but wouldn’t admit it. The stupid Trump spent the past 20 or so months denying about doing it but Cohen’s tape changed everything.

What’s important now is that Trump has finally admitted it in public and America’s political system has to decide what to do with Trump and Jr. If the party majority is flipped in November, Trump can regret his stupidity when he answers Mueller’s questions behind closed doors.


What if Qarta was invaded by Saudi with Trump’s approval? August 2, 2018

Posted by hslu in 石油, 美國, Energy, Global Affair, Middle East, Muslim, Oil, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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Remember what had happened after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August 1990? It led to Desert Storm, collaspe of Iraqi rm forces, Saddam’s capture by the U.S. troops and his death by hanging in the hands of a new Iraqi government.

Average oil price shoot up more than 100% 2 months after the invasion and the spiking oil price led to the recession in the early 1990’s.

If Tillerson didn’t succeed in his efforts to thaw the invasion of Qarta by Saudi’s crown prince, we’ll be seeing $100+ per barrel in Brent, collasping of XOM stock because XOM has significant investment in Qarta, recession in the U.S.and many oil importing countries, an occupied Qarta and a very happy MBS.

Will Trump sended in Marines to get rid of Saudi Arabia’s forces from Qarta because it was the right thing to do?

Probably not because the prince from the U.S. was so in the pock

November 4, 2018 July 24, 2018

Posted by hslu in 石油, 美國, Economics, Islam, Oil, Trump, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普.
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That’s about 100 days from today, July 24, 2018.

What’s so special about November 4, 2018 anyway, you might ask?

That’s the day Trump has given countries to stop importing oil from Iran.

What if these countries choose to ignore Trump’s empty threat and carry out business as before?

What will Trump do?

Will Trump initiate financial sanctions against these countries or will Trump find himself a face saving excuse to walk back his empty threat?

And how high will oil price go in light of wars of tweets between Trump and Iranian president? What if the Strait of Hormuz is in essence closed because Iran threatens military action against oil tankers flying American flag without firing a single missile?

$100 per barrel? $200 per barrel?

And how long will American people tolerate Trump’s impulsive and irresponsible 140 character, all CAPS foreign policy if they continue paying $4 per gallon at the gas station? By then, many people will have already lost their jobs and the U.S. economy will roll over into recession

How high will oil shoot up to? July 20, 2018

Posted by hslu in Middle East, Military, Muslim, Oil, 川普.
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$200 USD per barrel perhaps if a war breaks out between Iran and Israel.

And how much higher will oil company stocks be traded for if anything remotely close to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities happens?

Finally, what will happen to Israel if Israeli Army doesn’t clean up Iran’s nuclear facilities in the first strike?

The Divided States of America July 19, 2018

Posted by hslu in 美國, Racial Bias, Trump, 川普.
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White people in the U.S. are so emboldened by Trump since his election victory that they don’t even try to hide their hatred toward the blacks and other minorities anymore. These white men and women openly told minorities to go back to where they came from because Trump told Latinos to go home and wanted to keep Muslims from coming into the U.S. Trump also wanted to undo everything Obama did in the past eight years.

Let’s face it, everyone knows that racial discrimination has always been an ugly part of the America social fabric from the founding of this nation: against blacks, Asians, Latinos and native Indians. The white people just don’t want to admit it.

Before Trump became the president of the U.S., white Americans really didn’t like minorities any less than they do now. These white people legislated laws to guarantee equal rights to minorities, hid their true feelings under the law, pretended that they treated the minorities fairly and declaredAmerica is a fair and just nation. But, discrimination is still alive and prevalent in the U.S. All you have to see is watch how white policemen treated blacks in every inner city of America’s largest metropolitans.

Now that Trump doesn’t want minorities into the U.S., his followers naturally pick up the banter, go with the flow and act out on the street and on the buses.

Being a so called minority who have lived in the U.S. for 40+ years, it is really sad to see this happening out in the open in the U.S. What should the parent of a 2nd or 3rd generation kid of an Asian immigrant do if his or her child is confronted by a white woman on the way to school? What should the parent of a Latino kid do if his child told him that his classmate wanted the little kid to go back to his country?

America is so divided under Trump that the nation is literally split into two: white vs. non-white, conservative vs liberal, rich vs poor, 1% vs 99%, Republican vs Democrat and Trump lovers vs Trump haters.

I can tell you unequivocally that the America today is definitely not the America I came to forty years ago.

Is it time to leave this Divided States of America?

重創 July 15, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, 石油, 美國, Economics, Oil, Trump, U.S. dollar, U.S. Foreign Policy, 川普, 中國.
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Departing ZTE executive describes ‘deep humiliation’ in farewell letter – Channel NewsAsia



沒有話講,ZTE 這一戰,中國輸的很慘,輸的抬不起頭來,輸的很沒有面子,輸的很苦。跟啞巴吃黃連一樣,苦到心裏面去了,還不能說。

美國願意放寬對 ZTE 七年的制裁不是因為美國擔心 ZTE 七萬多名員工沒有事做,或者是不願意傷害到中國人的自尊心和感受,也不是要给中國的半導體工業開放一條生路,而是因為 ZTE 的上游廠商,像 Qualcomm,Google,Acacia 和其他公司等等,沒有零件用。Acacia 的股票在這個禁令發佈以後大跌40%。ZTE 無法開工,Acacia 也要關門。當然,它也赤裸裸的跟中國和世界宣佈誰是半導體工業的老大。美國覺得,它已經給中國一個嚴重的警告,那暫時不要把事情做的太絕,見好即收,放 ZTE 一條生路吧。


雖然 ZTE 的塵埃尚未真正的落定,美國國會也還有一些議員反對讓 ZTE 死灰復燃,ZTE 已經開始依照美國開出來很嚴厲的條件,慢慢的往復原的路上走了。雖然這條路還很漫長,美國會不會中途反悔也是未定的變數,不過這個 417 制裁毫無疑問的是 “中國夢” 的一個警鐘,有是 “中國製造2025” 的一個當頭棒喝,它也代表美國正式的對中國的崛起和壯大宣戰。美國要抵制中國的科技化,要阻止中國想要改變美國花了七十年的時間建立的以美國爲中心的世界秩序的野心。這是美國很狠的一步棋。而悲哀的是,中國只有捱打的份,沒有一點還手的餘地。

如今,許多跡象顯示 ZTE 有可能可以苟延殘喘的活下去,ZTE 的一部分工程師和工作人員也能夠準備再開始付他們的房屋貸款, ZTE 的供應鏈廠商也可以開工生產,許多跟 ZTE 有關的政府官員和相關的工業主管也可以偷偷的摸一把冷汗。中國的中央單位默默的,深深的嘆了一口氣,曉得事態的嚴重性,更知道他們還有好多事在等著他們去做。

同時,他們也知道這個 417 事件對中國影響之深遠和對中國崛起的重創實在是無法用筆墨來形容。


事實上,中國在成爲世界大國的道路上還有許多荊棘和阻礙,一路上還有許多地痞流氓躲在黑巷子裏,伺機就會倒砍中國一刀,阻止中國向前,防止中國佔領高科技產品的商機。這就是美國發動 417 事件真正的目的。

其實,美國如果真的要跟中國幹起來,中國一定會跟美國搞下去的。雖然中國賣給美國的東西遠比美國賣給中國的東西要多得多,不過中國還是有辦法讓 Trump 和美國人民的日子難過,進而影響美國期中選舉的結果。如果共和黨失去眾議院或參議院多數的領導地位,那 Trump 的苦日子就來了。如果 Trump 在 2019 被民主黨罷免,在 2020 就鞠躬下台,那他對美國,中國和世界的破壞也就能夠減少一點。

不過,我覺的這並不是當今最重要的議題。不管Trump 的關稅兵怎麼來,中國總會有關稅將去擋。不管 Trump 的貿易戰的禍水怎麼沖過來,中國有的是大力金剛土可以把它掩起來。這只是中美角力過程中的一個戰役。兩邊損兵折將在所難免,誰傷的重,誰傷的輕,誰死的多,誰死的少,最後誰輸誰贏,在兩國的競技中也不會有非常久遠的影響。



1。全力抵制 Trump 的貿易戰。絕不低頭,絕不退縮,寧為玉碎,不為瓦全。對付 Trump 這種沒有原則的人,只有硬碰硬,不能給他任何好處。把孫子兵法三十六計全部搬上檯面,跟 Trump 拖到底,打到底,打到美國失業率增加,打到美國經濟開始蕭條,打到美國赤字飇漲,打到美國債臺高築付不起利息,打到美國無法招架,打到 Trump 被民主黨罷免,打到 Trump 下台鞠躬為止。中國特有的資本主義和經濟體系比美國自由市場模式的資本主義要來的容易控制。就是因為如此,中國應該比較能夠減少貿易戰對中國經濟的破壞。美國的貿易戰只不過是一台戲,骨子裏,美國要對付的是中國科技的崛起,減少中國對美國的威脅。不過,如果 Trump 今年期中選舉大獲全勝,那美國對中國和全世界的關稅和貿易戰就失去了它的意義,這個美國一定輸的貿易戰就會無疾而終。如果 Trump 在期中選舉一敗塗地,那這個貿易戰就不重要了。Trump 馬上要做的是想辦法應付 Maxine Watters 和即將來臨的 impleachment。他的白宮寶位都不保,他怎麽會去管關稅和貿易戰呢?

2。表面上,中國應該韜光養晦,謙虛,謹慎。私底下中國應該重整旗鼓,精益求精。檢討中國高科技的現況,找出中國精密科學的弱點,訂下一步一步,有系統的改進方案,按時檢討改進的成果。中國製造 2025 一定要繼續做下去,只有將中國的經濟有效的轉型,才能突破中產階級的瓶頸。2025 達不到目的沒有什麼關系。2026 達到目的地也可以。一時的挫折,用不著失望,也不用懊惱,更不要放棄。歷史的教訓還歷歷在目,清朝的軟弱無能,絕對不能重複。日本被美國和其它幾個國家無情的圍剿,也是中國抵抗美國的借鏡。


4。直接或間接的告訴中國一千三百億的同胞,美國並不可怕,美國只不過是一個外強中乾的紙老虎。告訴中國人民,美國的弱點在那裏,美國的強項在那裏,美國的媒體有多大的影響力。告訴大家,只要中國人民聯合在一起,打擊美國的弱點,沒多久美國就會吃不消了。要知道民富則國富,民強則國強。美國人除了幾個住在東西兩岸的億萬富翁以外,其他的一般老百姓都是月光族的長期忠貞基本會員。這些人都是口袋裏有好幾張信用卡卻沒有幾個銅板的可憐人。別以為美國到處都是黃金,而且美國的人均 GDP 高的不得了。其實美國人均 GDP 是一個幻象,是美國的億萬富翁把它拉起來的,沒什麽大不了。美國人窮,入不敷出,根本沒有存款,還欠了一屁股債。美國人普遍的窮,請問,美國這個國家怎麼富的了。中國人只要每個人,每個月少買幾樣美國貨,持續幾個月下來,美國的問題就來了:失業率增加,經濟下滑,過沒多久,許多人就要靠政府的飯票吃飯了。


6。在此同時,加強管制中國的企業,確信 ZTE 417 事件不能再發生。所有大大小小公司的公信度必須提高。假賬必須停止,國家的監察機構必須加強管制,如有違規者,必將嚴懲。所有國有企業和私人跨國公司必須依照世界公認的標準來經營,用世界先進的管理制度來管理。

中國如果能夠痛定思痛的覺醒,進而日積月累的改進,不要氣餒,不能驕傲,虛心的接受這個打擊,一步步用心的去做,一點點努力的去發展,再加上國家提供正確的領導,儘可能在最短的時間內打破這個緊箍兒,躋身世界大國的領域,血洗 417 事件的恥辱。

短短的三十年前,日本的經濟在1980年代可以說如日中天,不可一世,對美國的出超已經達到危險的境界。許多美國的工業和工作機會逐漸成為 globalization 的犧牲品。幾個美國有名的 MBA 學府爭先恐後的來研究日本的管理模式,學習日本的經營方法,想要把”日本製造”搬到美國去。美國一方面感受到東亞小日本席捲全球的威脅,也害怕美國日漸式微的勞工市場。美國的智庫知道事態的嚴重性,想起 1942 年的珍珠港事件,他們知道美國必須要做點什麼來遏制這個囂張的日本。

1985年9月份的 Plaza Accord;廣場協議,就是美國送給日本的緊箍兒。美國就拿著這把尚方寶劍死勁的往日本的頭上砍下去。它也像美國從 Home Depot 買了一根六尺長的 2×4 ,先狠狠地打在日本左邊的太陽穴上,再回馬一槍打在日本右邊的太陽穴上。這兩棒打的日本頭冒金星,血冒三丈。當時日本還莫名其妙,免不了要問:區區這一張紙有什麽了不起,堂堂的日本大帝國什麼陣仗沒看過,怕什麽,簽就簽。

接下來,日幣大幅升值,日本瘋狂的漲了四年,然後就是 1989 年日本股市和房市崩盤,正式開始日本失落的三十年。到如今,日本年年入不敷出,債臺高築,日本國債已經達到日本 GDP 聞所未聞的 2.52 倍,離閻羅王的寶殿已經不遠了。


2018年的 ZTE “417 事件” 就是美國爲中國定下來的”廣場協議”。雖然中國跟日本不一樣,417 事件也只限於中國一家公司,可是它瞄準的是中國的半導體工業。如果中國決策當局不好好的對付,它一樣會有很大的殺傷力。中國必須內省,必須警覺,必須突破,必須在美國的抵制之下給中國的半導體工業一個脫胎換骨,從浴火中重生的機會。

除了核心半導體的技術受美國控制以外,中國還有一些弱點,例如:不健全的中央,地方和公司債券市場;中央和地方債太高;人民幣國際化過程艱辛;股票市場動盪不安,難以控制;居高不下的房地產;南海問題和臺灣問題等等都是美國可以見縫插針的地方。此外,美國對伊朗和蘇俄的制裁很可能會連累到中國。中國以人民幣來計價石油的行為也是美國非常敏感的議題。美國在外交關係的領域裏有無數個智庫,有許多終生研究中美關係的研究員。他們言辭犀利,見解獨到,因為他們不是政府官員,講話也可以不負責任。這些人激進和敵對的觀點很可能會被 Trump 拿來做文章。中國的決策者不能不防。




第一诗词 July 12, 2018

Posted by hslu in 美食, 川普, 中國.
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Friend shared a link to the subject poem. Here is the link and my response.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__ biz=MzIzMzk0ODU0OQ==&mid= 2247486360&idx=1&sn= 6f0d006c1e8c80426158aa5c8746f8 27&chksm= e8fc9f72df8b1664db852c9266c55a 5ba2abe8ca48946045e5de3ead307b 62a8abbff1c562e0&mpshare=1& scene=2&srcid= 0709ilAZMqW9l50k4CEM9LKK&from= timeline#rd


清风入怀抱 第一诗词 3天前

Here are my thoughts:

I actually don’t like this essay, especially the tone of voice of the Chinese translation. To me, the wording makes it sounds like, pardon my harsh words, a slave asking for his master’s forgiveness, a humble and submissive worker requesting his bullying and all powerful superior’s guidances or a low self-esteem husband who got caught sneaking into the back door in the morning begging for his mean and ugly wife’s mercy.
China is a sovereign country and, as such, China shouldn’t have to ask for other country’s (reads USA) permission to govern its own nation that way it sees fit, protect its lands, guard its national security, fulfill its duties to its people and work towards its obligations to the world.
When China made a mistake, e.g., the smog, do as much as it can to correct the wrong, let others see your accomplishments and move forward.
To hell with the western liberal media’s propaganda! In fact, China should do as much as it can to counter western media’s bias and have its own big voices heard in the world, particularly in the US where most of this evil depiction of China came from.
Has the US apologized for what it has done and is still doing to the world in the past 70 years?
A few cases in point:
1. America used 25% of the world resources to enrich itself for much of the past seventy years,
2. America started many unilateral military actions against other sovereign nations and is still killing many innocent people in many parts of the world. America calls it collateral damage.
3. America used its overwhelming dominance in the financial industry to threaten and sanction other countries into submissions in the name of policing the world peace and protecting America’s national interests,
4. America enjoyed prolonged period of extremely low inflation in the US while exported pollutions to the rest of the world and at the same time cry for human rights and damaging environments outside of the US,
5. The US president now cries for unfair treatments to the American workers and starts unilateral trade wars against the world,
6. America devastated the entire world’s economy and pushed hundreds of millions of people into poverty because of actions of greedy and unscrupulous Wall Street billionaires, stupid US congressmen and congresswomen and failed American government oversight bodies and regulators in the latest financial crisis.
7. At the same time, the action of the US government protected the CEOs of failed Wall Street institutions and created unprecedented inequalities in the entire world,
8. America almost single-handed caused the boom and bust economic cycles in the world and started numerous currency crisis in the developing countries because Federal Reserve raised and lowered interest rates in the US,
8. America instigated numerous covert and open actions to destabilize other nations’ governments for much of the last seven decades and then build that nation with America taxpayers’ money to conform to America’s foreign policy at the time. In the end, it created many rich politicians and made millions hate America,
9. America walked away from contracts and treaties signed by past US governments with other nations and bulled the world to bend under American’s demands,
10. Exported killing machines to other nations, destabilized many regions of the world and started escalating arm races across continents so that these countries will come back for more weapons.
Well, the list goes one but I hope you get the drift.
You most likely have a different opinion about America’s actions, China and the world, if I offended you, please forgive my bluntness.

Was Trump not breast fed? July 9, 2018

Posted by hslu in Trump, 川普.
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White House Threatened to Economically Cripple Ecuador for Promoting Breastfeeding


Why is the United States of America under that guy against breast feeding?

Quick, give me your best guess.

Can’t think of any?

Let me give you a hint: $$$$.

Get it?

Still in the dark?

One more hint: Business man.

Because baby formula is a multi -billion dollar business and the U.S. under Trump “embracing the interests of infant formula manufacturers,” not breast milk.

Silly you.

Apparently, Trump and Trump’s rich friends can’t make money off breast milk so that the White House officials threaten to “unleash punishing trade measures and withdraw crucial military aid ”if Ecuador dared introduce a resolution” to promote breast feeding.

Furthermore, some American delegates to the U.N.’ World Health Assembly even reportedly suggested the U.S. might slash its contribution to the World Health Organization if America’s demands: removing language of asking governments to “protect, promote, and support breastfeeding” be removed, weren’t met.

There you have it.

U.S. , China trade war July 8, 2018

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, Trade, Trump, 川普, 中國.
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這篇文章把美國和中國貿易談判的過程,伎倆和結果說的很清楚。Andrew Sorkin 很年輕,他是 CNBC 清早 Squawk Box 的主持人,我看他的節目已經十幾年了。

Peter Navarro 反對中國幾十年。他主張嚴厲懲罰中國。 Steven Muncin 是美國的財政部長,華爾街的人。沒有什麽貿易和談判經驗,對中國沒有研究,是一個 lightweight. Larry Kudlow 是 Reagan 總統的白宮 budget 主任,主張降低公司稅,降低關稅,strong U.S. dallar, 經常在 CNBC 上節目,是一個 free trader。他反對增加 tarrif,極力支持自由貿易已經幾十年了。他是 Trump 的白宮 budget 主任,跟 Narvarro 是對頭。

最近一兩個月才上臺的。Wilbur Ross 是美國的商業部長,是華爾街股票專家,經常上 CNBC ,以前看好中國投資前景,極力主張買中國股票的人。Trump 找他做商業部長以後才改口說中國不好。這幾個人都六七十歲了,除了 Munchin以外,其他幾個人我十幾年前就知道他們。。Wilbur Ross 看起來最老,已經八十歲了。還有一個美國的專家,這篇文章好像沒有提到他:Robert Lighthither。他是美國的談判代表。我不知道他是誰,以前也沒有在電視上看過他。

Trump 已經宣佈 ZTE 只要再罰 $1.0 billion 就可以再跟美國做生意了。這是美國的王牌,可是 Trump 沒有用它,不知道 ZTE 的美國下游公司是不是說了什麼。ZTE 公司總裁和所有高級官員都在美國遊說幾十天了。可能也有幫助。這是非常輕的懲罰。還有中國在四月八號開博鼇論壇。習近平去海南島的琼海市主持博鼇論壇時就說要增加進口美國的貨品了。這是在Trump 罰 ZTE 和貿易談判以前的事。

至於 Trump 以後還會不會對中國提出什麼要求現在來說也是太早。不過,就像這篇文章中說的:這一次中美談判,美國確實沒有佔到便宜。我也覺得很意外。

The problem is July 8, 2018

Posted by hslu in Democracy, Economics, Globlization, Military, Trump, US Government, 川普.
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Ocasio-Cortez thinks America needs another Great Deal via massive deficit spending to revive the U.S. economy. She thinks that country can borrow as much as it needs because the deficit and the debt are not the problem for the U.S. The austerity is. Besides, she believes America can print as much as it wants because the U.S. dollar is the reserve currency of the world and everyone loves the green backs.

She has a degree in economy from the Boston University.

Well, there is a small problem with this line of thinking.

Actually, a few.

The structure of America’s economy,high labor costs, globalization, lousy K-12 education system, massive low skill immigrants and the non competitive nature of America’s work force will not grow U.S. economy fast enough to negate the negative effect of an uncontrolled deficit spending.

The rising interest cycle for the next three decades makes deficit spending a DOA idea.

Republicans used to be the steward of financial responsibility when it comes to government spending. Trump bullied Ryan and fellow Republicans to soak the rich, give six-pack Joes crumbs to pick on, and pile up national debt to unprecedented level in the next 7 years. Fiscal responsibility has gone out of the window and they are just like the Democrats.

Let the U.S. borrow: the Republicans borrow to build sophisticated fighter jets and $15 billion aircraft carriers. They make the rich richer.

The Democrats borrow to give the money to the low skilled and lazy Americans. They can’t compete but they know where the money comes from.

Let the binge party begin.

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