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Will China invade Taiwan? October 26, 2019

Posted by hslu in China, 美國, 習近平, 蘇俄, Military, Taiwan, 台灣, 中國.
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Could China Really Invade and Take Over Taiwan by Force?

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/could-china-really-invade-and-take-over-taiwan-force-90646
Imagining this:
 
Some time after the unlikely event of a DPP’s win of the upcoming presidential election in early 2020, be it one month, one year or two years, China announces that it has taken over the islands of Jinmeng (金門) and Mazhu (馬祖) after a bloodless invasion overnight. Penghu (澎湖) is the next target. Plans for a full-scale invasion of the island of Taiwan have long been drawn up but the invasion isn’t on the table just yet.
 
China also announces that “Operation Cutting the Head of;斬首行動” has begun. In the same announcement, China says that this is an internal affair and it warns other country to staying clear of seas surrounding the island. In other words, an areal and a sea blockades are in effect immediately.
 
What will the U.S. do?More sanctions against China? Propose to sell more defensive weapons to Taiwan? Send in an additional aircraft carriers to the Eastern Pacific Ocean? In other words, possibly not much different from Obama’s responses against Russia after invasion of Crimea.
 
What will Taiwan’s official response be? Declare independence and activate military reserves? Ask the U.S.to send in more marines to Taipei?
 
What willTsai Yingwen and DPP top officers’ next move be?Fly to Japan, hide in Japan’s official office in Taipei or send Mayingjiu to Beijing to negotiate a surrender to PLA in secret?
 
Will Taiwan’s stock market drop 65% overnight? Maybe it is 75% instead.
 
This will definitely qualify as a “black swan” for the stock markets around the world.
 
Are you prepared for it?
 
 

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