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陳文茜:崇美,夸张 , 混淆视听 July 17, 2013

Posted by hslu in China, Cold War, Economics, Energy, Euro, Global Affair, Obama, Oil, Politics, Taxes.
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A friend forwarded me the following article from 陳文茜. I searched the web and found many sites quoting 陳文茜 as the original author。

I know it was an old post dated sometime in  2010。 Furthermore,my post is seriously out-of-dated but there are a few points need to be addressed.

The following is a copy of 陳文茜’s original post:

美國人又來了 (老美真厲害).

My comments continue after 陳文茜’s piece.

———————————————————————————————————–

美國人又來了 (老美真厲害)

陳文茜 

我人生前50年,短短的50年裡,已聽到2次全球經濟中心由西半球向東移的大趨勢論調;2次事隔25年,2次發聲皆來自美國。

第一次差不多於1985年時達到高峰期,當時《Japan as No.1》的書籍剛出版,撰寫書籍者為一位哈佛大學教授;美國各大報紙紛紛發表社論,有的充滿畏懼,有的充滿憤怒。也就在那一年日本為了平衡對美貿易順差,壓力下簽署「廣場協議」;之後美歐聯手拉抬日圓,漲幅近三分之一,吃掉了日本大半外匯,日本正式進入泡沫經濟時代,也終結戰後最大繁榮期。

 

現在事後看來,日本人真是傻!1988年還高興地抱著現金買下洛克斐勒大廈,甚至打主意入主紐約地標「World Center」。「歐元之父」諾貝爾經濟獎得主孟代爾去年9月接受香港鳳凰衛視專訪,明白點出當年「日本人做了愚蠢的決定」;日本從此經濟消20年;前10年泡沫經濟留下壞帳,1997年亞洲金融風暴,「Japan No.1正式結束神話;後10年經濟停滯,只靠出口微成長。

現在美國人又來了!金融海嘯剛發生時,向全球賣出有毒金融產品的美國人曾短暫懺悔一下,但也就那麼一下。一年後美國人又大聲了,而且聲調、語氣、論述都複製1985年的版本。這一次他們的對象是中國。

第一部曲,宣告並預言「中國即將統治世界」;

第二部曲,高唱人民幣嚴重低估論,130名國會議員聯名指控中國操縱匯率;

第三部曲,美元不聲不響地與其他國家貨幣競貶,由於美元仍居全球不可替代的國際貨幣地位,美元貶值等於美國人將他們的債務丟給包括中國、台灣等持有龐大美元資產的國家分攤。

金融海嘯發生後,美國有一批學者積極研究日本消失的10年,很怕美國重蹈日本之路。這些美國學者當然不會有足夠的客觀性,願意把時間再往前推10年,看著勤奮的日本人是如何走上這條不歸路。

美國沒料到中國這次變精明,他們也正研究日本消失的10年;北京請益西方孟代爾、史迪格里茲等經濟大師當國師。這一次中國官方早已吃了秤砣鐵了心,人民幣絕不上當,不會重蹈「廣場協議」陷阱。中國不向美國帶頭的國際壓力屈服,人民幣大幅升值,讓中國經濟從此也走上日本的不歸路。

中國謹慎不當傻子

日本人隔海看著這場主角換人但戲碼熟悉的人民幣大會戰,感慨恐怕很深。日本民間是全球購買最多雷曼債券的受害國,事後他們沒有從美國得到一絲補償。日本唯一賴以出口稱霸全球的TOYOTA汽車,又因煞車出包在美國不斷被放大層次;美國國會史上第一次出現一位外CEO,至國會被質詢羞辱。世界上有沒有一個國家有權請雷曼CEO或馬多夫,至該國接受國會質詢或批評,日本人最親美也受害最深,但他們沒有一絲絲權力表達憤怒。

中國小心謹慎地看待後金融海嘯的時代,最壞的已過去,因此全球一致行動的時代已結束;從此是各國角力的開始。中美不可能全面鬧翻但也不可能為了換取對美貿易,中國再誤上賊船。從去年開始。

中國官方幾乎駁回多數國企對美併購案,中國不想當個傻子,投資美國,再被當地工會套牢。一位了解中國核心政策的朋友告訴我,中國官方領導人的原語談話,「連自己多少斤兩都搞不清楚!被騙光了,還以為自己是贏家!」

按照最新2010年新數據,西方至今仍佔全球經濟總額2/3;談亞洲崛起,不如正確地說亞洲只分了一柸羹。至於所謂「中國統治世界」,別跟著美國瞎鬧了! 

CASE I
詹姆士,美國人到中國旅遊,用10萬美元兌換到68萬人民幣在中國吃喝玩樂了一年,花了18萬人民幣。他要回去了,到銀行去,因為人民幣兌美元升值到 1:5這位美國人用剩下的50萬人民幣換到了10萬美元。來時10萬美元,回去還是10萬,高高興興地回家了。

CASE II    

布萊恩美國人,也拿10萬美元換了68萬人民幣。在中國花50萬買了房子,吃喝玩樂花了18萬,想回去了。房子增值了,賣後淨得100萬人民幣,以匯率 15,剛好能換20萬美元。布萊恩在玩,也在掙錢。

CASE III     
王念祖中國人,到美國打工,68萬人民幣兌換到10萬美元。在美國辛辛苦苦了一年,賺了3.6萬美元。他要回去了,到銀行去,因為人民幣兌美元升值到15。這位中國人用13.6萬美元換到了68萬人民幣。來時68萬人民幣,回去還是68萬人民幣,悲傷地回家了。

PS: 匯率真厲害,不可不小心。
   歐巴馬真會算,要求人民幣升值。

 

———————————————————————————————————–

To me,  陳文茜 article reads like someone who admires the strength of an all mighty empire, or a bully if you will,who wielded tremendous power  in the world doing whatever it wanted to do without any negative consequences. This might be true in 1985 but it is less so since Obama became president of the United States in 2009. It was clear to me that 陳文茜’s 崇美 mentality was in full display in her article.

陳文茜 ‘s “漲幅近三分之一 “ assertion on the Japanese yen after 廣場協議 is misleading. In 1985, one US dollar would get you on average 238 Japanese yen. After 廣場協議 which took place on 9-22-1985, Japanese yen rose to 128 yen for one U.S. dollar in 1988: that‘s almost doubling its value against U.S. dollar in three years. In contrast, Chinese 人民幣 appreciated a little more than 25% in eight years: from 6.8人民幣/US dollar on June 11, 2005 (when it last traded at this level) to 6.14人民幣/US dollar on July 17, 2013.

Now a little background on 人民幣/USD exchange rate first:陳文茜 used the exchange rate of 6.8人民幣/USD in her examples. The last time when one US dollar could fetch 6.8 人民幣was in June, 2011. 

Now, we’ll exam 陳文茜’s three examples further which, to me, also showed 陳文茜’s “崇美” mentality. But some fact before getting into the actual discussion.

Fact: the actual 人民幣/USD exchange rate one year after June, 2011 was around 6.5; not 5 as stated by  陳文茜.

Case I: 詹姆士

Let’s for the argument’s sake take the stated exchange rate of 5.0人民幣/USD in 陳文茜’s examples, the purchasing power of 詹姆士’s 10萬美元 is in effect reduced by 26% in 人民幣terms. In other words, after 詹姆士 returns to the U.S., he will have to pay 35% more when he buys stuff made in China at local Wal-Mart. In essence, his 10萬美元 is no longer the same 10萬美元 he bought to China. 詹姆士 高高興興地回家。Buts James will be 伤伤心心地花钱 once he is home.

 

CASE II: 布萊恩

Here 陳文茜 didn’t specify how long 布萊恩stayed in China. If she implies the same one year time frame as in the other two cases, it is not likely that布萊恩’s house can double in just one year of time.

 Be that as it may, let’s take a look of 布萊恩‘s Play and Earn scenario.

 It is not only possible but it had actually happened all over China albeit at a slower pace. The sky-rocketing appreciation in Chinese real estate (30-50% rise per year) has all but disappeared in recent years. But I still think 布萊恩 should get a lot more from his real estate investment unless he bought it in a 四,五线城市。

Here is why:人民幣 is a controlled currency and it appears that 中国人民银行will only let人民幣appreciate 4 to 5% per year. To appreciate from 6.8:1 to 5.0:1, it will take 人民幣at least 7 years to reach that level. It is more than likely that houses in上海or 北京 can double in value in 7 years. Since 布萊恩 already wasted 18萬人民幣in the first year 吃喝玩樂, he has to work to make a living or borrow against his real estate investment to get by for the next 6 years. Gone are the days of 吃喝玩樂! 布萊恩actually had to work for a living:waiting tables at 上海新天地or teaching English for 新东方for six years just to get by。He may even have to borrow some money using his real estate investment as collateral。In the 7th year, 布萊恩 sells his house, pays off his loan and probably still has 100 萬人民幣when he goes back to the U.S.A. Not bad at all.

 Yes, this is totally possible in 7 or 8 years! But not in 1 year.

Well, I think  陳文茜 exaggerated to make a point. But she needs to make sure her facts are right.

CASE III: 王念祖

First of all, 王念祖 probably isn’t’t very smart. Everyone knew 人民幣 was an appreciating currency. There was no compelling reason for 王念祖 to wire his 68 萬人民幣 and converted it to the U.S. dollar. Besides, deposit in 人民幣 gets at least 3% interest in China. Deposit in U.S. dollar received a mere 0.25% interest in one year. Unless 王念祖 is a 傻瓜, he won’t wire his 68 萬人民幣 to America to begin with.

 Even 王念祖 did wire his money to the U.S., the purchasing power of 王念祖’s  68萬人民幣a year later is 26% higher than the 68萬人民幣 he took to the U.S.A. Based on 陳文茜’s 5 to 1 USD/人民幣 exchange rate. 王念祖 will find out that all the stuff made in the U.S.A. at 上海好市多(Costco) is a lot cheaper now。王念祖又高兴起来了。

Now, let’s take a look of “ 匯率确实厲害,不可不小心。”

Here I, like many others, totally agree with this point and I hope every country in the world can learn something from American’s bullying act in 1985 and the prices Japan and Japanese people paid in its aftermath.

日本人是真傻!The United States dropped two atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.「廣場協議, Plaza Accordis the third atomic bomb dropped by the U.S. on Japan’s economy. The damage on Japanese economy can’t be calculated because Japan is still paying for it in the form of lost decades, lost pride and mounting national debt which is estimated to be 230% of its GDP. We’ll see whether Abenomics can or can’t revive Japan’s failing economy in a few years. If it fails to do so, Japan will bankrupt on the weight of its debt and Japan will have no one but the U.S. to thank for.

日本人是真傻 because Japan still treats U.S. like it is Japaneses best friendLast time I checked, Shinzo Abe came to America looking for guidance and assurance. He should have demanded retribution from the U.S. for all the damages 廣場協議 did to Japan’s economy.

But he didn’t!

日本人是真傻 but 日本人活生生的例子taught Chinese government a very good lessona lesson worth trillions of dollars. How successful Chinese government can defend its currency and its economy will depend on how good that lesson is. 

There is no doubt that China knew what had happened to Japan since 1985. 中国人民银行, on one hand takes in billions of U.S. dollar and Euro from exports but, on the other hand, controls the level of appreciation of 人民幣 to ensure it will not hamper the growth of China’s exporting industries. In 15 to 20 years, 人民幣 may be allowed to float and by then 中国人民银行 will have a few more trillions of dollar and trillions of euro to defend人民幣’s trading level on the open market. So far, Chinese government uses its foreign currency reserve buying out natural resources all over the world because this is what China needs the most.

The United States has deliberately devalued its currency in order to, according to 陳文茜, 

將美國人的債務丟給包括中國、台灣等持有龐大美元資產的國家分攤。But, the United States will ultimately pay the price in the form of diminishing purchasing power, rising international and domestic inflation, rising interest rates, crushing national debt, growing tax burden by all Americans and reduced service to its citizens from federal and local governments.

The pivot of American’s foreign policy from Europe and Mideast to Asia, or making China America’s enemy going forward, has an expected consequence: forcing China and Russia to a united front to combat America’s aggression.

The era of a new “Cold War” is happening right now!

The rise of China coupled with Russia’s cooperation, however, will have an immediate impact on the behavior of U.S., arguably the only bully in the world for the past 70 years. China, along with Russia, will provide the sorely needed check and balance on the world stage. It is actually happening right now on Iran, on Syria and on Snowden, just to name a few. In addition, Obama’s “America is no longer the world leader” attitude isn’t helping America’s case either. When Europe eventually gets out of its current crisis in three to five years, a stronger and more competitive Europe will rise from the ash.

By then, a new world order; 三国鼎立, “will play out in front of our eyes again.

What an interesting time we are living in right now.

I can’t wait to see the new 三国演义“ as it is written in real time.

July 19, 2013

 

 

 

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